EDITORIALS Rapeseed/Mustard seeds fundamentals - World ... - MCX

EDITORIALS
PROLOGUE
EXPERTS' VIEWS
INDIAN ECONOMY
Rapeseed/Mustard seeds fundamentals - World and India (in `000' tonnes)
2011-12e 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2001-02
World
Beginning stocks 5,453 7,795 6,576 3,517 4,668 5,514 2,693
Production 58,750 59,227 60,533 57,805 48,500 45,127 36,010
Imports 10,774 9,921 10,742 12,126 7,548 6,988 4,947
Consumption 60,450 61,240 59,244 54,827 49,047 46,345 35,976
Exports 10,805 10,250 10,812 12,045 8,152 6,616 4,896
Total Supply 74,977 76,943 77,851 73,448 60,716 57,629 43,650
Ending stocks 3,722 5,453 7,795 6,576 3,517 4,668 2,778
Area (1000 Ha) 33,295 32,587 31,102 31,081 28,237 26,481 23,287
India
Beginning stocks 900 785 631 65 473 1,122 521
Production 7,000 7,000 6,400 6,700 5,450 5,800 4,500
Imports 15 15 20 10 11 0 0
Consumption 7,168 6,898 6,264 6,143 5,867 6,449 4,625
Exports 2 2 2 1 2 0 6
Total Supply 7,915 7,800 7,051 6,775 5,934 6,922 5,021
Ending Stocks 745 900 785 631 65 473 390
Area (1000 Ha) 7,000 7,000 6,450 6,600 5,700 6,640 5,250
Certified Seed Distribution - - 16 17 14 9
Avg daily volatility MCX spot prices - 0 0 0 0 - -
Winnepeg price (Rs./20kg) - 545.1 335.5 338.5 434.4 273.0 -
Indian Price (Rs. /20kg) - 518.3 519.1 447.2 481.1 345.3 265.4
MSP (Rs/qntl.) 1,850 1,850 1,830 1,830 1,800 1,715 1,300
Note: e - source estimates provided by USDA, data retrieved on August 1, 2011;
Source: USDA; Ministry of Agriculture, Govt. of India; Agmarknet; Winnepeg Commodity Exchange
Rapeseed/Mustard seeds balance sheet 2011-12e - World (in `000' tonnes)
Supply
Demand
Country Begining stocks Production Imports Consumption Exports Ending stocks
EU-27 1,323 18,800 3,050 22,125 180 868
China 1,264 12,800 1,050 14,700 - 414
Canada 1,150 12,600 190 6,400 6,700 840
India 900 7,000 15 7,168 2 745
Australia 323 2,300 - 739 1,615 269
Ukraine 1 1,900 2 102 1,800 1
Others 492 3,350 6,467 9,216 508 585
Grand Total 5,453 58,750 10,774 60,450 10,805 3,722
Note: e - source estimates provided by USDA, data retrieved on August 1, 2011;
Source: USDA
8000
6400
Mustard: Ending Stock & Prices
‘000’ tonnes Prices in Rs/qntl
India ES
World ES
India prices
Winnipeg Prices
3500
2800
4800
2100
3200
1400
1600
700
0
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
Source: Agmarknet, & USDA. ES - ending stock, Indian prices Rs/Qntl, Int. prices of Winnepeg Futures Exchange in Rs/qntl
0
196 Commodity Insights Yearbook 2011

DATABANK - NON-AGRI COMMODITIES
DATABANK - AGRI COMMODITIES
Rapeseed/Mustard seeds - BRICS Nations fact sheet
Production Import Export Consumption Net Population Per capita Per capita
availability (in million) availability consumption
(kg)
(kg)
Brazil 0 0 0 0 0 206.47 0.00 0.00
Russia 1050 1 150 792 1144 137.97 8.29 5.74
2011-12e India 7000 15 2 7168 7915 1,208.36 6.55 5.93
China 12800 1050 0 14700 15114 1,341.85 11.26 10.95
South Africa 0 0 0 0 0 49.83 0.00 0.00
Brazil 0 0 0 0 0 203.43 0.00 0.00
Russia 670 5 50 626 769 138.74 5.54 4.51
2010-11 India 7000 15 2 6898 7800 1,189.17 6.56 5.80
China 13100 1070 0 15020 16284 1,336.72 12.18 11.24
South Africa 0 0 0 0 0 49.00 0.00 0.00
Brazil 0 0 0 0 0 201.10 0.00 0.00
Russia 667 1 111 687 892 139.39 6.40 4.93
2009-10 India 6400 20 2 6264 7051 1,173.11 6.01 5.34
China 13657 2177 0 15114 17228 1,330.14 12.95 11.36
South Africa 0 0 0 0 0 49.11 0.00 0.00
Brazil 0 0 0 0 0 198.74 0.00 0.00
Russia 752 1 63 607 894 140.04 6.38 4.33
2008-09 India 6700 10 1 6143 6775 1,166.08 5.81 5.27
China 12100 3034 0 13740 15134 1,338.61 11.31 10.26
South Africa 0 0 0 0 0 49.05 0.00 0.00
Brazil 0 0 0 0 0 196.34 0.00 0.00
Russia 630 11 64 514 719 140.70 5.11 3.65
2007-08 India 5450 11 2 5867 5934 1,148.00 5.17 5.11
China 10573 805 0 11378 11378 1,330.04 8.55 8.55
South Africa 0 0 0 0 0 48.78 0.00 0.00
Brazil 0 0 0 0 0 190.01 0.00 0.00
Russia 523 1 79 388 545 141.38 3.85 2.74
2006-07 India 5,800 0 0 6,449 6,922 1,129.87 6.13 5.71
China 10,966 961 1 11,926 11,927 1,321.85 9.02 9.02
South Africa 0 0 0 0 0 44.00 0.00 0.00
Note: e - source estimates provided by USDA, data retrieved on August 1, 2011; in `000' tonnes unless otherwise specified, Population figures for 2011-12 is arrived at by calculating
CAGR from 2004-05 to 2010-11;
Source: USDA, World Bank, IFM, CIA World Fact Book
Rapeseed/ Mustard seeds state-wise area and production
Area (`000' Hectares)
Production ( `000' Tonnes)
States/ UT 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2001-02 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2001-02
Rajasthan 2,310 2,838 2,500 3,210 1,841 2,948 3,503 2,360 3,810 1,943
Uttar Pradesh 613 884 860 830 847 682 992 1,000 870 845
Haryana 513 515 500 600 535 849 895 600 800 796
Madhya Pradesh 791 713 580 690 506 849 737 540 690 459
Gujarat 216 294 340 360 247 341 334 550 500 292
West Bengal 410 413 410 420 440 443 315 360 340 337
Assam 245 226 240 240 272 129 123 120 120 137
Bihar 89 85 90 90 93 89 82 80 90 78
Others 402 331 310 350 293 278 221 220 220 195
All India 5,588 6,298 5,830 6,790 5,073 6,608 7,201 5,830 7,440 5,083
Source: Dept. of Agriculture, GOI
www.mcxindia.com / www.pwc.com/in/en
A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour 197

EDITORIALS
PROLOGUE
EXPERTS' VIEWS
INDIAN ECONOMY
Rapeseed/Mustard seeds - All India sowing progress during rabi (in lakh ha)
Average Area Sown reported Change vis-a vis prev year
Date area in As on date % of average Same period Absolute %
rabi
last year
8-Apr-11 67.01 72.47 108.1 65.56 6.9 6.2
1-Apr-11 67.01 72.48 108.2 65.5 7 6.2
25-Mar-11 67.01 72.48 108.2 64.77 7.7 6.2
18-Mar-11 67.01 72.47 108.1 64.62 7.8 6.2
11-Mar-11 67.01 72.45 108.1 65.25 7.7 6.3
4-Mar-11 67.01 72.45 108.1 64.76 7.7 6.3
25-Feb-11 67.01 72.55 108.3 65.38 7.2 6.6
18-Feb-11 67.01 72.51 108.2 65.35 7.2 6.6
4-Feb-11 67.01 72.51 108.2 65.35 7.2 6
28-Jan-11 67.01 72.47 108.1 65.28 7.2 6
21-Jan-11 67.01 72.46 108.1 65.28 7.2 6
14-Jan-11 67.01 71.12 106.1 64.08 7 4.8
24-Dec-10 67.01 69.22 103.3 62.86 6.4 4
10-Dec-10 67.01 62.07 92.6 60.86 1.2 -1.2
26-Nov-10 67.01 55.52 82.8 59.68 -4.2 -2.9
9-Apr-10 65.27 65.13 99.8 66.9 -1.8 -2.6
26-Mar-10 65.27 65.07 99.7 66.91 -1.8 -2.8
12-Mar-10 65.27 65.07 99.7 66.87 -1.8 -2.7
5-Mar-10 65.27 64.92 99.5 66.87 -1.9 -2.9
26-Feb-10 65.27 64.43 98.7 66.62 -2.2 -3.3
12-Feb-10 65.27 64.42 98.7 66.54 -2.1 -3.2
5-Feb-10 65.27 64.38 98.6 66.51 -2.1 -3.2
22-Jan-10 65.27 64.05 98.1 66.31 -2.3 -3.4
15-Jan-10 63.25 66.24 104.7 57.74 8.5 14.7
8-Jan-10 65.27 64.02 98.1 66.24 -2.2 -3.4
18-Dec-09 65.27 62.56 95.8 63.98 -1.4 -2.2
11-Dec-09 65.27 60.85 93.2 63.29 -2.4 -3.9
27-Mar-09 63,25 66.24 104.7 59.63 6.6 11.1
27-Feb-09 63.25 65.94 104.3 59.89 6 10.1
20-Feb-09 63.25 65.91 104.2 59.85 6.1 10.1
13-Feb-09 63.25 65.91 104.2 59.85 6.1 10.1
6-Feb-09 63.25 66.51 105.2 59.82 6.7 11.2
30-Jan-09 63.25 66.49 105.1 59.05 7.4 12.6
23-Jan-09 63.25 66.45 105.1 58.8 7.7 13
16-Jan-09 63.25 66.3 104.8 58.84 7.5 12.7
9-Jan-09 63.25 66.24 104.7 57.74 8.5 14.7
2-Jan-09 63.25 65.89 104.2 57.62 8.4 14.6
26-Dec-08 63.25 65.18 103.1 58.11 7.1 12.2
19-Dec-08 63.25 63.98 101.2 57.15 6.8 12
12-Dec-08 63.25 63.28 100.1 57.02 6.3 11
5-Dec-08 63.25 62.29 98.5 55.32 7 12.6
28-Nov-08 63.25 58.4 92.3 52.81 5.6 10.6
21-Nov-08 63.25 56.25 88.9 43.81 12.4 28.4
14-Nov-08 63.25 46.84 74.1 31.44 15.4 49
7-Nov-08 63.25 34.8 55 21.18 13.6 64.3
28-Mar-08 59.28 59.63 100.6 66.1 -6.47 -9.8
14-Mar-08 59.28 59.61 100.6 66.1 -6.49 -9.8
7-Mar-08 59.28 59.61 100.6 66.06 -6.45 -9.8
29-Feb-08 59.28 59.6 100.5 66.06 -6.46 -9.8
22-Feb-08 59.28 59.55 100.5 66.3 -6.75 -10.2
15-Feb-08 59.28 59.55 100.5 66.3 -6.75 -10.2
1-Feb-08 59.28 59.05 99.6 66.67 -7.63 -11.4
25-Jan-08 59.28 58.96 99.5 66.63 -7.67 -11.5
4-Jan-08 59.28 58.66 99 66.37 -7.71 -11.6
28-Dec-07 59.28 59.55 100.5 63.36 -5.81 -8.9
7-Dec-07 59.28 55.93 94.4 63.44 -7.5 -11.8
16-Nov-07 59.28 52.76 89 61.31 -8.6 -13.9
Source: Department of Agriculture Cooperation
198 Commodity Insights Yearbook 2011

DATABANK - NON-AGRI COMMODITIES
DATABANK - AGRI COMMODITIES
Rapeseed/Mustard seeds state-wise monthly arrivals (in tonnes)
Month Uttar Pradesh Rajasthan Gujarat Madhya Pradesh Haryana
Mar-11 94,417 347,891 64,114 111,074 23,957
Feb-11 58,150 60,226 10,770 47,457 1,210
Jan-11 73,089 64,320 19,425 12,395 1,621
Dec-10 68,740 65,143 20,067 13,353 2,231
Nov-10 54,979 61,468 8,377 6,392 3,312
Oct-10 60,161 122,867 14,927 17,388 3,773
Sep-10 66,301 105,296 8,914 7,531 2,336
Aug-10 125,326 113,340 6,078 5,552 6,794
Jul-10 63,044 124,172 9,696 7,531 10,682
Jun-10 55,797 175,584 13,731 5,552 18,058
May-10 73,152 229,028 20,709 18,068 28,037
Apr-10 102,881 630,200 43,689 32,968 90,874
Mar-10 106,310 332,783 105,657 99,708 36,462
Feb-10 64,467 62,984 48,604 57,717 2,355
Jan-10 51,112 30,758 11,511 12,639 1,127
Dec-09 47,805 63,054 17,185 22,246 2,456
Nov-09 39,191 58,985 12,440 20,882 2,350
Oct-09 30,904 83,053 10,234 19,340 2,039
Sep-09 46,871 51,031 17,516 14,531 4,447
Aug-09 42,154 45,550 14,962 14,548 5,009
Jul-09 45,942 86,285 12,419 5,952 7,758
Jun-09 61,774 205,850 23,037 7,557 12,374
May-09 66,510 305,033 33,627 19,401 22,561
Apr-09 78,610 596,707 60,813 38,069 112,511
Mar-09 108,189 661,367 76,927 12,177 54,311
Feb-09 99,770 111,317 52,389 4,317 598
Jan-09 63,641 37,279 4,959 3,030 659
Dec-08 50,688 29,508 4,776 2,665 721
Nov-08 35,379 22,231 5,936 1,759 814
Oct-08 33,933 40,547 4,462 1,770 658
Sep-08 32,050 40,057 7,613 1,368 549
Aug-08 29,469 32,364 3,119 2,234 672
Jul-08 48,700 115,216 9,041 3,184 1,550
Jun-08 57,168 186,713 23,970 2,335 3,049
May-08 129,167 413,088 42,667 3,813 13,500
Apr-08 101,994 504,118 62,247 5,855 34,598
Mar-08 61,044 399,254 104,168 6,588 6,936
Feb-08 72,797 59,094 15,914 1,806 301
Jan-08 50,160 48,343 3,091 1,625 286
Dec-07 47,599 45,169 5,192 861 227
Nov-07 27,797 53,449 6,441 1,520 119
Oct-07 32,307 76,580 8,799 2,218 386
Sep-07 40,124 36,274 4,278 3,894 334
Aug-07 53,283 28,802 4,412 2,635 629
Jul-07 26,643 68,272 6,712 4,772 1,704
Jun-07 43,081 163,718 14,561 6,975 7,145
May-07 58,172 381,683 24,961 12,314 30,509
Apr-07 58,842 492,351 51,375 16,816 121,392
Mar-07 55,897 348,794 97,353 31,663 28,081
Feb-07 40,258 61,828 43,810 20,269 467
Jan-07 48,991 5,170 3,501 4,600 626
Dec-06 26,585 5,557 5,922 1,121 206
Nov-06 25,932 11,960 12,943 1,246 1,151
Oct-06 32,030 9,102 11,467 947 548
Sep-06 31,428 24,831 19,782 3,954 643
Aug-06 36,186 19,744 6,794 3,748 1,925
Jul-06 39,061 19,708 7,775 5,188 873
Jun-06 55,148 41,523 15,019 12,856 2,067
May-06 70,140 143,975 36,885 34,441 40,073
Apr-06 85,114 253,263 49,922 84,066 68,181
Source: Dept. of Agriculture, GOI
www.mcxindia.com / www.pwc.com/in/en
A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour 199

EDITORIALS
PROLOGUE
EXPERTS' VIEWS
INDIAN ECONOMY
Rapeseed/ Mustard seeds prices and trading activity
MCX Spot prices - Other market monthly average Rapeseed/ Mustard seeds
Hapur/Jaipur/Sirsa (Rs/20 Kg) spot prices (Rs/20 kg) NYSE LIFFE Paris futures
Months Monthly Month Month Uttar Rajasthan Madhya WPI of Closing Volume Open
average high low Pradesh Pradesh Mustard price in lots^ interest
oil (Euro/ lots^^
tonne)
Dec-10 573.8 586.3 568.1 2427.4 501.1 466.6 116.9 446.3 133,028 88,442
Nov-10 570.3 578.2 551.1 2419.2 492.8 466.1 116.3 415.8 117,286 87,313
Oct-10 549.3 558.9 533.5 2358.9 479.1 464.5 116.1 390.5 120,319 80,783
Sep-10 541.2 553.1 532.0 2384.7 473.7 461.0 116.2 366.3 121,829 88,114
Aug-10 551.9 569.8 535.0 2336.0 481.5 449.8 116.0 358.3 115,643 71,775
Jul-10 529.5 549.2 512.6 2293.5 465.4 429.6 113.6 351.3 144,093 60,292
Jun-10 511.1 520.0 502.7 2278.1 449.4 426.4 112.3 325.0 94,749 62,231
May-10 500.5 520.3 490.0 2204.3 435.1 407.7 111.8 309.8 47,759 44,996
Apr-10 499.6 514.0 487.3 2247.3 435.1 401.8 111.4 308.8 76,260 41,198
Mar-10 496.2 513.7 476.0 439.4 438.2 406.6 114.1 306.3 79,828 48,619
Feb-10 508.8 525.8 486.0 460.3 428.7 400.6 115.1 292.8 56,078 49,281
Jan-10 575.0 607.5 498.5 495.7 497.2 457.6 119.3 281.3 87,693 40,765
Dec-09 604.2 630.0 584.0 499.8 529.7 505.3 118.8 287.5 50,412 59,179
Nov-09 589.7 608.4 566.0 483.6 507.0 479.1 115.8 282.0 56,187 61,351
Oct-09 542.8 572.0 522.8 471.9 477.8 450.7 112.9 269.0 115,637 46,495
Sep-09 526.7 530.1 525.0 480.2 466.2 452.9 112.7 259.0 80,879 64,340
Aug-09 541.2 549.8 527.0 475.0 482.2 427.4 114.9 271.8 62,662 55,478
Jul-09 522.9 535.0 509.6 465.1 465.2 447.8 115.3 259.8 123,140 44,281
Jun-09 513.4 521.2 505.7 456.4 461.9 427.6 114.2 290.0 49,973 43,497
May-09 516.7 523.7 505.7 467.2 465.4 439.5 115.6 318.3 34,568 36,404
Apr-09 501.7 535.4 470.0 428.7 438.6 436.0 114.5 298.3 71,445 34,376
Mar-09 449.2 461.4 430.0 404.3 395.5 402.7 117.0 266.8 50,231 35,144
Feb-09 485.3 528.8 427.2 408.0 412.2 416.5 122.0 269.0 36,745 34,138
Jan-09 557.5 593.5 500.0 505.0 485.7 448.2 129.6 285.0 70,280 31,883
Dec-08 621.3 638.0 597.7 552.1 546.7 510.6 122.7 263.8 58,232 38,138
Nov-08 616.4 637.1 594.8 567.8 538.4 528.3 121.3 299.8 34,407 40,489
Oct-08 609.0 623.1 598.2 565.9 531.6 524.5 122.0 321.3 84,012 34,406
Sep-08 610.9 630.5 589.6 566.2 522.0 522.1 123.0 346.8 75,613 41,814
Aug-08 621.3 632.1 602.6 576.1 540.4 516.7 124.0 396.0 57,792 41,097
Jul-08 648.1 662.0 628.0 578.8 551.5 522.9 126.8 412.3 86,016 33,136
Jun-08 631.1 655.2 603.0 550.3 540.0 534.9 124.6 454.5 46,265 39,334
May-08 562.7 604.1 525.1 487.9 485.5 494.5 117.8 432.5 30,832 32,963
Apr-08 521.7 540.5 500.5 461.1 449.1 469.2 117.5 434.0 48,234 33,755
Mar-08 582.6 628.9 539.9 497.9 505.4 513.6 121.3 425.0 55,473 38,449
Feb-08 523.7 586.1 502.5 437.3 474.0 411.0 115.8 507.0 41,993 41,568
Jan-08 502.1 516.7 487.9 424.4 444.8 419.9 114.0 435.5 63,190 38,676
Dec-07 483.1 491.1 475.8 430.4 430.1 409.4 111.2 429.8 36,670 35,098
Nov-07 475.6 487.1 462.3 417.8 413.8 403.8 110.4 394.8 39,234 31,734
Oct-07 449.6 471.8 429.2 405.4 398.6 383.4 107.5 382.0 52,393 34,795
Sep-07 431.9 439.2 423.5 405.4 380.7 374.8 107.1 360.8 45,219 40,313
Aug-07 436.8 445.9 424.5 405.3 383.0 374.4 107.0 350.0 35,289 38,994
Jul-07 445.0 450.8 437.9 396.4 390.9 381.8 106.1 309.0 58,493 39,509
Jun-07 421.7 436.0 406.7 383.7 371.9 359.3 104.6 291.5 38,423 40,033
May-07 400.5 405.3 396.8 379.5 352.7 358.5 103.4 276.0 21,301 36,108
Apr-07 398.1 402.0 394.8 372.0 353.7 368.0 103.1 263.0 32,545 31,884
Mar-07 357.4 381.5 345.5 339.9 334.0 341.1 100.8 249.0 31,915 32,435
Feb-07 349.5 355.3 340.5 342.0 325.5 321.4 100.5 271.0 18,380 29,396
Jan-07 350.3 352.4 347.4 354.4 327.0 327.8 102.2 268.5 33,742 29,985
Dec-06 359.0 372.0 352.5 363.1 347.3 341.7 101.8 278.0 14,824 29,746
Nov-06 361.3 375.3 348.1 348.3 342.9 347.5 98.2 280.5 17,125 27,779
Oct-06 328.8 343.7 325.3 331.2 307.7 310.3 95.4 267.3 32,288 24,661
Sep-06 327.4 329.9 324.1 332.2 313.4 311.8 95.4 257.5 18,616 27,547
Aug-06 331.0 335.8 327.9 325.6 312.2 312.3 95.3 262.8 13,899 26,083
Jul-06 327.6 330.0 324.0 322.4 308.2 300.7 94.4 258.5 30,469 17,072
Jun-06 328.1 332.6 323.4 323.1 303.7 300.6 93.8 243.0 23,680 26,288
May-06 329.9 332.7 325.4 322.0 316.5 300.7 93.1 253.3 25,265 23,445
Apr-06 323.9 330.4 319.1 317.8 304.8 297.8 91.9 235.0 19,366 18,500
Note: April 06-Mar 07 Sirsa market; April 07-till date Jaipur market; WPI - Wholesale Price Index; N/A - Not Available; Futures price are for near month continuos futures contract
Source: MCX, Agmarknet; Ministry of Commerce & Industry; Exchanges' websites
200 Commodity Insights Yearbook 2011

DATABANK - NON-AGRI COMMODITIES
DATABANK - AGRI COMMODITIES
Data of top 5 countries (`000' tonnes)
Production
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12e
0
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
EU-27 Canada China India Australia Others
Note: e - source estimates; Source: USDA
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Imports
2011-12e
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
EU-27 Japan Mexico China Pakistan Others
Note: e - source estimates; Source: USDA
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Exports
2011-12e
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Canada Ukraine Australia United States EU-27 Others
Note: e - source estimates; Source: USDA
Consumption
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12e
0
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
EU-27 China India Canada Japan Others
Note: e - source estimates; Source: USDA
www.mcxindia.com / www.pwc.com/in/en
A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour 201