The Royal Society Report - Push-Pull

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4 Consequences and complications of innovation in food crops 39 4.1 The natural environment and externalities 39 4.2 Human health 43 4.3 Social and economic systems 44 4.4 Extension and technology transfer 45 4.5 Innovating towards sustainable intensification 46 5 Conclusions and recommendations 47 5.1 Meeting the challenge of global food security 47 5.2 Scientific targets 48 5.3 The capacity to innovate 49 5.4 Making science make a difference 50 6 References 53 7 Annexes 65 7.1 Project terms of reference 65 7.2 Call for evidence 66 8 Glossary 69 iv I October 2009 I Reaping the Benefits The Royal Society
Foreword Lord Rees of Ludlow OM President of the Royal Society It is more than 200 years since Thomas Malthus offered his famously pessimistic prediction that the rise in human populations would outrun the growth in food supplies. But despite devastating regional famines, prognostications of mass starvation have not been fulfilled, even though the population has risen around six-fold since Malthus’s time. Nonetheless, projections for the coming decades are deeply disquieting. We are already unduly dependent on farming techniques that have harmful environmental impacts. To meet the needs of a growing population with changing consumption patterns, productivity must be enhanced, but it must be done so sustainably. This report describes how the prudent application of recent and prospective biological advances can contribute to the ‘sustainable intensification’ of agriculture. It argues that a multi-pronged approach is needed. Improvements in farming practices and crop management are essential, but modern genetics must be utilised too. There is a big gap between sophisticated UK laboratories and the reality of subsistence farming in Africa: to eliminate malnourishment requires an adequate economic and political infrastructure as well. But the message of this report is that scientific advances are necessary, even if they are not sufficient, if global food supplies are to be ensured. Since the first ‘green revolution’ 50 years ago, international research institutes have made hugely valuable contributions to human welfare. UK laboratories have been at the forefront of these efforts. Their mission has never been as important as today, nor has biological knowledge ever offered such great potential. The challenge of learning how to feed the world cannot be left to the private sector: governmental support—increasingly (and gratifyingly) augmented by major charities—is crucial. This authoritative and balanced report offers enlightening reading for all policy makers; its well judged recommendations should be heeded. The Royal Society is grateful to all the members of the Working Group and especially to Sir David Baulcombe, its Chairman. We also acknowledge the valuable inputs from the Council’s review group, and the efficient and professional support of the Society’s Science Policy team. The Society would like to express special gratitude to Professor Mike Gale FRS, who died suddenly very soon after the final Working Group meeting. This report is dedicated to him and his family. The Royal Society Reaping the Benefits I October 2009 I v
Page 1 and 2: Reaping the benefits Science and th
Page 3 and 4: Reaping the benefi ts: science and
Page 5: Reaping the benefi ts: science and
Page 9 and 10: Membership of working group The mem
Page 11 and 12: Summary Food security is one of thi
Page 13 and 14: 1 Introduction Summary Food securit
Page 15 and 16: Figure 1.4. Changes in per capita a
Page 17 and 18: of R&D can take many years to filte
Page 19 and 20: protected area status. The ecosyste
Page 21 and 22: governments and NGOs. The report co
Page 23 and 24: 2 Constraints on future food crop p
Page 25 and 26: y high temperatures during and afte
Page 27 and 28: salt affected (Athar & Ashraf 2009)
Page 29 and 30: Table 2.1. Major pests of maize, ri
Page 31 and 32: depends to a great extent on the av
Page 33 and 34: 3 Developments in biological scienc
Page 35 and 36: Argentina, Brazil, India and Canada
Page 37 and 38: for the phenotype of a plant of cha
Page 39 and 40: Case study 3.3. Seed mixtures to in
Page 41 and 42: Case study 3.4. Integrated pest man
Page 43 and 44: herbicide-resistant crops—either
Page 45 and 46: host defences have been identified
Page 47 and 48: eliminated), and external inputs su
Page 49 and 50: Cost Costs of developing biofortifi
Page 51 and 52: 4 Consequences and complications of
Page 53 and 54: Soil and water conservation, contou
Page 55 and 56: However, although the effects of ag
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e linked to appropriate trading sys
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5 Conclusions and recommendations 5
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model species. However, high throug
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UK focus. We have identified a majo
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6 References ACRE (2007). Managing
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de Dorlodot S, Forster B, Pagès L,
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Hammer G, Cooper M, Tardieu F, Welc
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and quality. Australian Grapegrower
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Robinson RA & Sutherland WJ (2002).
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Vanderauwera S, De Block M, Van de
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7 Annexes 7.1 Project terms of refe
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Practical Action, UK. Professor Arp
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8 Glossary Abiotic stresses ACRE Ae
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Millenium Ecosystem Assessment Mole
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Royal Society policy reports, state
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