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<strong>FPC</strong> <strong>INSIGHT</strong><br />

<strong>October</strong> <strong>2012</strong><br />

Questions Contact the Individual Advice<br />

Centre on 0860 100 444, IAC@aforbes.co.za or<br />

www.alexanderforbes.co.za<br />

An authorised financial services provider<br />

FAIS Licence No. 31753 Co.<br />

Reg No. 1995/012674/07<br />

FINANCIAL PLANNING CONSULTANTS


<strong>INSIGHT</strong> | OCTOBER <strong>2012</strong><br />

Introduction<br />

Linda Sherlock l Head of Advisory, Retail, <strong>Alexander</strong> <strong>Forbes</strong><br />

Welcome to the <strong>October</strong> edition of<br />

<strong>FPC</strong> Insight.<br />

We’re now at that stage of the year where<br />

everything is urgent and energy is low,<br />

so we thought we’d help you with a little<br />

motivation.<br />

Bonga Mokoena from <strong>Alexander</strong> <strong>Forbes</strong>’s<br />

Public Sector Division shares his views on<br />

motivation, <strong>Alexander</strong> <strong>Forbes</strong> consultant<br />

Gavin Mofsowitz explains what motivates<br />

an offshore investment decision and Carl<br />

van der Berg gives us ways to budget that<br />

will keep us on track.<br />

We also share interesting stats about why<br />

saving for retirement is a must, and we<br />

have an article with ways to keep your<br />

world greener.<br />

If you still need more for the final push<br />

before the end of the year, you still have<br />

two more editions of <strong>FPC</strong> Insight to look<br />

forward to, and we promise to keep<br />

bringing you informative, relevant and<br />

insightful articles to help you on your<br />

financial journey with us.<br />

Until next time!<br />

Linda<br />

An authorised financial services provider FAIS Licence No. 31753 Co. Reg No. 1995/012674/07


<strong>INSIGHT</strong> | OCTOBER <strong>2012</strong><br />

PROFILE WITH A VIEW<br />

Bonga Mokoena | Managing Director, Public Sector Division, <strong>Alexander</strong> <strong>Forbes</strong><br />

Staying motivated<br />

during tough economic<br />

times<br />

What motivates me about our business<br />

is that it’s about people. What we do<br />

impacts on real people and on their<br />

financial well-being. That’s extremely<br />

important to me. I apply my skills to<br />

the best of my abilities so as to make a<br />

positive difference in people’s lives. It’s<br />

important to have a higher purpose to<br />

motivate us in everything we do. It helps<br />

to stay focussed on the bigger picture<br />

and maintain a positive attitude and view<br />

of things.<br />

How tough are our<br />

contemporary<br />

economic times<br />

While we are experiencing some of<br />

the effects of what is happening in the<br />

Eurozone and other major economies,<br />

our resilience has been strong as a<br />

country. We have done well so far<br />

considering our circumstances. Our<br />

situation is not nearly as ominous as<br />

the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and<br />

Spain). Our economic principles are<br />

sound and robust. However, we have<br />

our own economic challenges in South<br />

Africa, such as the triple challenge of<br />

unemployment, poverty and inequality.<br />

Some of the recent events locally show<br />

the effects of these underlying issues<br />

culminating into events that do not help<br />

the country’s credit rating. We need to<br />

look at how we can begin to gradually<br />

and systematically address these<br />

challenges to create a firm foundation<br />

and stability for our country.<br />

I believe that our government is trying its<br />

best to resolve these issues. However,<br />

there is always more that can be done.<br />

We need all stakeholders to do their best<br />

and make a meaningful contribution.<br />

Corporate South Africa, ourselves<br />

included, must stay on the right track<br />

and do what we can.<br />

There is hope and potential for exciting<br />

things in the near future, depending<br />

on what contributions we each make<br />

towards the prosperity of our country.<br />

One low-hanging fruit is a positive<br />

outlook. It does not cost much for all<br />

of us to envisage a brighter future. The<br />

more we think negatively about our<br />

country, the greater is the likelihood that<br />

we will internalise the negativities and<br />

actually live them, eventually creating<br />

a self-fulfilling prophecy of doom and<br />

gloom. I believe that we should rather<br />

hope for a brighter future for ourselves<br />

and future generations.<br />

Where to invest in<br />

uncertain conditions<br />

It is easier for institutional investors to<br />

determine clear investment objectives<br />

and draft an investment policy statement<br />

using Regulation 28 as a guideline. For<br />

individual investors, the decision of where<br />

to invest would be based on what’s available<br />

in the investment universe of both listed<br />

and unlisted instruments. It is not always<br />

advisable to invest offshore if exposure to<br />

currency volatility is too great a risk based<br />

on the amount of money available.<br />

Stick to your long-term<br />

strategy<br />

It is vital never lose sight of the bigger<br />

picture when investing, especially in<br />

securities markets. There is a road from<br />

where you are to where you want to be with<br />

regards to your portfolio. It’s important not<br />

to get caught up in and be distracted by<br />

the side-shows. Securities and currency<br />

markets go through cycles of volatility, so<br />

stay focused. If your investment objectives<br />

are still aligned to your investment policy<br />

statement, then stay the course. If you are<br />

going to change any part of your investment<br />

strategy, it should be a technical move, not<br />

a paranoid one. Any attempt to time the<br />

markets will almost always result in net loss.<br />

Find a long-term<br />

financial partner<br />

There are products available such as<br />

exchange-traded funds and smooth or<br />

balanced portfolios that you can choose to<br />

invest in for the long term. As <strong>Alexander</strong><br />

<strong>Forbes</strong> Financial Services, we offer a<br />

broad range of investment vehicles with a<br />

long-term view and exposure to all types<br />

of securities, be they shares, bonds or<br />

money markets. But what’s most important<br />

in my opinion is the partnership between<br />

the individual investor and the financial<br />

planning consultant.<br />

Having access to someone with the<br />

knowledge, skill and expertise advising you<br />

about investments is most essential on any<br />

financial journey. Even if I make moves in<br />

my strategy, I bounce my ideas off people<br />

I trust and know that they have the insight.<br />

Build a formal, long-term relationship with<br />

someone who is looking after the best<br />

interests of not just yourself, but your family<br />

as well.<br />

An authorised financial services provider FAIS Licence No. 31753 Co. Reg No. 1995/012674/07


<strong>INSIGHT</strong> | OCTOBER <strong>2012</strong><br />

Investment fundamentals<br />

10 of 12 | INVESTING OFFSHORE<br />

Gavin Mofsowitz | Consultant, <strong>Alexander</strong> <strong>Forbes</strong><br />

Increasing popularity<br />

Offshore investing has once more<br />

become a popular option for South<br />

African investors. This is evident by<br />

some of our local asset managers<br />

taking advantage of the recent<br />

changes made to Regulation 28 of the<br />

Pension Funds Act. The amendment<br />

now allows local asset managers to<br />

invest up to 25% in foreign countries<br />

with an extra 5% allocated to African<br />

markets, as opposed to the original<br />

15%.<br />

We are also starting to see more local<br />

fund managers and pension fund<br />

trustees asking for investors’ and<br />

board members’ votes of confidence,<br />

to include offshore assets in funds<br />

that did not previously have offshore<br />

mandates. The relaxation in exchange<br />

control measures also allows high net<br />

worth individuals the opportunity to<br />

invest up to R8 million (family unit)<br />

directly in offshore assets.<br />

Exchange control measures are<br />

controls that the government puts<br />

on how much foreign currency you<br />

can invest in. Currently, individuals<br />

can invest up to R4 million each<br />

per year offshore, with another<br />

R1 million discretionary allowance<br />

per person.<br />

Looking back<br />

Before we get carried away, it’s<br />

important to turn back our investment<br />

clocks and re-visit the past. Let’s look<br />

back at the last decade when offshore<br />

investing promised to deliver superior<br />

inflation-beating returns, similar to<br />

the Proteas winning the Cricket World<br />

Cup. In both instances many of us<br />

were left rather disappointed. Local<br />

investors chasing offshore returns<br />

in the form of developed market<br />

shares would have been far better off<br />

investing locally. Over the last decade,<br />

local shares delivered double digit<br />

returns as compared to the dismal<br />

performance of offshore shares.<br />

I can’t explain why we didn’t win<br />

the World Cup. What I do know<br />

is what behavioural finance tells<br />

us – that investors tend to act<br />

irrationally when faced with difficult<br />

investment decisions. Investors<br />

must be encouraged not to be driven<br />

by fear or greed, which invariably<br />

lead to panic. We saw the effects of<br />

this in 2001 when the rand value<br />

dropped sharply after a huge sell-off<br />

of our currency. Investors moved vast<br />

amounts of assets to offshore markets<br />

and suffered heavy losses when the<br />

currency appreciated again.<br />

Talking about currency<br />

Appreciation = stronger rand<br />

Depreciation = weaker rand<br />

What should drive an<br />

offshore investment<br />

decision<br />

• Asset classes<br />

The underlying asset class (cash,<br />

bonds, property or shares) and<br />

the expectation around future<br />

earnings of a company are important<br />

considerations to take into account.<br />

The global financial crisis and turmoil<br />

surrounding the US credit market<br />

proved that even the ‘darlings of<br />

Wall Street’ are not immune to<br />

severe declines in value. In some<br />

instances they even suffered total<br />

failure resulting in bankruptcy. The<br />

US was however not alone, as this<br />

turmoil spread to other global and<br />

developed markets. Both local and<br />

offshore markets are slowly showing<br />

signs of a steady recovery. The All<br />

Share Index (ALSI) is also testing<br />

new record highs. However, we need<br />

to understand that a developing<br />

economy like that of South Africa is<br />

not immune to global market shocks<br />

and currency instability. These factors<br />

can have severe consequences to our<br />

offshore investment decisions if not<br />

managed properly.


<strong>INSIGHT</strong><br />

The All Share Index (ALSI) measures the<br />

general price movement of shares listed on<br />

the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE).<br />

Current account deficit happens when a<br />

country’s total imports is greater than its<br />

export. This makes a country a debtor to<br />

the rest of the world.<br />

The MSCI World Index is a market index of<br />

over 6 000 world shares. It is maintained<br />

by MSCI Inc. and is often used as a global<br />

benchmark.<br />

• Currency<br />

This brings me to the second<br />

important factor that would affect<br />

an offshore investment decision –<br />

currency. Current account deficits<br />

(6.4% of GDP), the widening of our<br />

trade account (R12.2bn), labour<br />

and social unrest and the negative<br />

perception around our economy all<br />

contribute to an unstable and very<br />

unpredictable rand. Analysts may<br />

be able to predict where corporate<br />

earnings are heading, but to trust<br />

an economist with a currency<br />

prediction would almost always lead<br />

to a disaster of some sort. Over the<br />

course of 2011, if a South African<br />

investor invested in the USD World<br />

Index (MSCI), the corresponding<br />

offshore asset class in the form of<br />

shares would have returned a loss of<br />

around 10% (excluding dividends).<br />

The rand however depreciated<br />

significantly against major<br />

currencies. The relative depreciation<br />

of the rand (about 20%) would have<br />

contributed positively to overall<br />

performance. This simplistic example<br />

highlights the potential effects a<br />

volatile currency like the rand can<br />

have on your offshore investment.<br />

• Intention<br />

This subtle yet extremely important<br />

aspect of any investment decision<br />

is of great importance when<br />

considering investing offshore. As an<br />

example, for an investor planning on<br />

living abroad, it would make sense<br />

to place a lot of money offshore over<br />

a period of time to benefit from the<br />

potential advantages of rand average<br />

smoothing. This way the investor<br />

won’t be dependent on the cycle of<br />

the market at any given time because<br />

the rand value changes should<br />

average out. In this example, the<br />

intention is definite and the goal is<br />

well defined from the start. We often<br />

tend to make irrational investment<br />

decisions when we deviate from our<br />

investment goals. Be aware of this<br />

and try not to get carried away by the<br />

shorter-term noise like swings in the<br />

rand/dollar exchange rate.<br />

Building an effective<br />

offshore strategy<br />

An offshore component is essential in<br />

a blended portfolio. A well-diversified<br />

portfolio, with quality shares and solid<br />

fund manager credentials, remains key<br />

to any long-term investment strategy.<br />

How much you choose to invest<br />

offshore will depend on your investment<br />

objectives and intentions.<br />

As value pockets start developing in<br />

offshore markets like the US and UK<br />

for example, we’re starting to see asset<br />

managers increasing offshore exposure<br />

in local flexible balanced funds. In<br />

some cases they are investing as much<br />

as 80% or more (using Regulation 28<br />

guidelines) in overseas assets including<br />

shares. These types of funds are an<br />

effective way to achieve offshore<br />

exposure.<br />

A decision to invest offshore needs to be<br />

carefully planned and executed through<br />

an ongoing working relationship with<br />

your financial adviser. Make sure you<br />

clearly understand the various products<br />

available to gain some form of offshore<br />

diversification. You should also find out<br />

about any fees, commissions and tax<br />

implications that these structures can<br />

attract. Know that investing offshore<br />

should form part of a long-term strategy.<br />

History shows that offshore investments<br />

are more stable over a longer period of<br />

time.<br />

Offshore investing has become easier<br />

as exchange control measures are<br />

being eased and the global economy<br />

is becoming more integrated. For a<br />

sustainable and effective offshore<br />

investment strategy, make sure you<br />

get thorough investment advice for an<br />

accredited financial adviser. Beware of<br />

product pushers and advisers punting<br />

offshore structured products. These<br />

structures can be very complex and<br />

can attract high costs. In terms of<br />

holistic financial advice, your adviser<br />

should analyse your specific investment<br />

objectives and your overall asset base<br />

before introducing offshore exposure.<br />

An authorised financial services provider FAIS Licence No. 31753 Co. Reg No. 1995/012674/07


<strong>INSIGHT</strong> | OCTOBER <strong>2012</strong><br />

BUDGET LIKE YOU MEAN IT<br />

Carl van der Berg | Financial Planning Consultant, <strong>Alexander</strong> <strong>Forbes</strong><br />

From a young age we are told that<br />

we should draw up a budget. I think<br />

this is where the hatred begins. I<br />

remember once at school having<br />

to draw up a budget in a life skills<br />

class. This was tough to do when<br />

my pocket money was only R20 a<br />

month. Many years later I still sit<br />

with the problem of too little income<br />

for the expenses I have and a<br />

budget that is hard to manage.<br />

A budget should be a simple tool<br />

to help you manage how you spend<br />

your income. For far too many of us,<br />

it’s a word that makes us feel guilty.<br />

We’ve all made at least one mistake<br />

with money and how we spend it.<br />

My advice is to drop the guilt and<br />

rather learn from our errors. Here<br />

are a few examples of mistakes that<br />

are as easy to correct as they are to<br />

make.<br />

Common budgeting<br />

mistakes<br />

• Enjoying making the budget<br />

more<br />

than sticking to it<br />

In my student days, I would get<br />

so excited about making a study<br />

timetable. I think I enjoyed it so<br />

much because it gave me the<br />

chance to not study and still<br />

feel productive. In the same way<br />

many of us may enjoy making<br />

budgets more than sticking to<br />

them. This is a mistake that<br />

costs us the most because of<br />

what we can gain if we just try.<br />

• Being unrealistic<br />

Sometimes when my alarm clock<br />

goes off in the morning, I wonder<br />

about how long certain things<br />

will take me to do. I play a game<br />

of mental maths that sounds<br />

something like this: “Shower,<br />

5 minutes... actually 3 minutes is<br />

enough. Eat I don’t have to eat.<br />

Yes! I can sleep for another 10<br />

minutes!” I do something similar<br />

when I draw up a budget.<br />

I think that certain things won’t<br />

cost as much and allocate too<br />

little money to it. If you allocate<br />

R500 to eating out in a month<br />

– by the first two weeks you<br />

might have blown this amount,<br />

and then lose interest in the<br />

budget altogether. Rather work<br />

backwards. Track your spending,<br />

see how much you actually<br />

spend on – for example – eating<br />

out, then form a realistic budget<br />

of what you can and want to<br />

spend every month. If you’re over<br />

budget by week 2, work out a<br />

way to juggle your expenses, or<br />

learn to cut down – quickly.<br />

• Making it too complicated<br />

This is also a reason many of<br />

us don’t draw up budgets in the<br />

first place – we think it needs to<br />

be something complicated.<br />

It really doesn’t.


<strong>INSIGHT</strong> | OCTOBER <strong>2012</strong><br />

As a financial planner, my budget<br />

still has a simple structure that you<br />

could use for your own budget:<br />

• Essentials<br />

This includes the basics such<br />

as a bond repayments or rent,<br />

car payments, petrol, food,<br />

bank charges, life cover and<br />

disability insurance.<br />

• Communication<br />

It’s important to stay<br />

connected, and many of us<br />

might spend quite a lot of<br />

money on phone bills, ADSL,<br />

data costs for tablets, 3G<br />

contracts and the like.<br />

• Luxury<br />

Under this heading I have:<br />

domestic salary, DSTV, gym<br />

membership, golf membership,<br />

spending money and similar<br />

expenses.<br />

• Investments<br />

I make sure that I save at<br />

least 20% of my salary into<br />

a retirement annuity fund,<br />

unit trusts, a share account,<br />

investment property – whatever.<br />

If you are not sure of where<br />

and how much you should be<br />

saving then make some time to<br />

see your financial adviser. Make<br />

sure you can work out a good<br />

way to put some money aside<br />

for the future, your children’s<br />

education, a holiday or one of<br />

life’s unexpected emergencies.<br />

If you’re an accountant or an<br />

actuary and want to make an Excel<br />

spreadsheet with multi-coloured<br />

graphs, pages and formulas – feel<br />

free. But I believe that the simpler<br />

your budget, the better your chance of<br />

sticking to it.<br />

A few tips<br />

• “There’s an app for that”<br />

In our modern era of smart phones,<br />

there are many free or low-cost apps<br />

you can download to help you to<br />

keep track of how you are spending<br />

your money. You can also log on to<br />

AF Online anytime<br />

(www.afonline.co.za) for helpful<br />

budgeting tools and information.<br />

• Pick a card<br />

It can be a hassle to remember how<br />

much you have spent on certain<br />

expenses. You could try transferring<br />

your budgeted limit onto certain<br />

cards – for example – one card<br />

for groceries, one for petrol and<br />

another for entertainment. That<br />

way you can integrate benefits from<br />

various service providers such as<br />

points earned on certain cards used<br />

at certain shops. Some providers<br />

also give benefits on petrol or<br />

entertainment (like movies) so shop<br />

around. It’s easier to keep track of<br />

your spending this way than keeping<br />

slips.<br />

The essence of<br />

budgeting –<br />

do it your way<br />

There really is no prescribed formula.<br />

There are many ways to draw up a<br />

budget. What’s important is that you<br />

take control of your spending and live<br />

within your means.<br />

I hope that the next time you hear the<br />

word ‘budget’, you don’t feel guilty, but<br />

smile knowing that you’re on track, or<br />

finally getting there – at your own pace.<br />

An authorised financial services provider FAIS Licence No. 31753 Co. Reg No. 1995/012674/07


<strong>INSIGHT</strong> | OCTOBER <strong>2012</strong><br />

5 QUESTIONS TO ASK BEFORE YOU RETIRE<br />

If you want the right answers, it’s best to ask the right questions.<br />

Here are some thought-stirrers to get you started on the road to a<br />

rewarding retirement.<br />

How much will I need<br />

Everyone’s situation is different. You<br />

might have a home that you’ve already<br />

paid off, or kids that you’re still<br />

supporting financially. The aim is to<br />

have enough money that you can invest<br />

to get out a monthly pension as close<br />

as possible to your final salary. This<br />

way you can keep your lifestyle and<br />

even go after some of your retirement<br />

dreams. Speak to a financial planner<br />

to find a final number and ways to get<br />

there. There are also great retirement<br />

projection tools on AF Online<br />

(www.afonline.co.za) that can help you<br />

figure out and stick to your retirement<br />

saving goal.<br />

When should I retire<br />

Legal retirement age in South Africa<br />

is 55 but most retirement fund rules<br />

refer to 65 as their legal retirement<br />

age. Depending on how much you need<br />

and how much you have saved up, you<br />

might want to consider retiring later<br />

or earlier. Many people prefer working<br />

part-time, at least to adjust to the new<br />

way of life and to supplement their<br />

retirement savings. Speak to a financial<br />

planner before you make your choice to<br />

make sure you are making the most of<br />

your financial opportunities.<br />

Should I keep working<br />

Retirement is a great time to enjoy<br />

hobbies and interests. If you can afford<br />

to, you could turn one of those interests<br />

into income. If you would like to take<br />

over a small business in a beautiful city,<br />

this could be the best time to do it.<br />

There are risks involved, so make sure<br />

you consider those and get appropriate<br />

advice before you begin.<br />

What kind of insurance<br />

do I need<br />

• Health<br />

Medical expenses are one item<br />

on your monthly budget that will<br />

probably cost more as you get older.<br />

Think about the medical aid plan<br />

you will need and include those<br />

costs in your final retirement saving<br />

goal.<br />

• Life<br />

The amount of life cover you’ll need<br />

will probably change when you<br />

retire, depending on your individual<br />

circumstances. Speak to a financial<br />

planner to find out how much life<br />

cover you actually need so you’re not<br />

over, or under-spending. AF Online<br />

also has tools to help you with this<br />

aspect of your financial planning.<br />

• Disability<br />

Once you’re no longer working,<br />

you’re not relying on your salary so<br />

you won’t need disability insurance.<br />

Make sure you plan for and only<br />

keep the insurance policies you<br />

really need.<br />

What else can I use for<br />

my retirement<br />

You might have a home, a holiday<br />

home, a car or a few other assets you<br />

can use to add to your retirement<br />

savings. For example, if you no longer<br />

need your three-bedroom house, you<br />

can sell it, downgrade and add the profit<br />

to your retirement savings. Retirement<br />

is an ideal time to use your hard-earned<br />

wisdom and get creative about your<br />

options.<br />

An authorised financial services provider FAIS Licence No. 31753 Co. Reg No. 1995/012674/07


<strong>Alexander</strong> <strong>Forbes</strong> Financial Planning<br />

Consultants (Proprietary) Limited<br />

A division of <strong>Alexander</strong> <strong>Forbes</strong> Financial Services (Pty) Ltd.<br />

Reg No: 1995/012764/07 | FAIS License No: 31753<br />

<strong>Alexander</strong> <strong>Forbes</strong> Place, 61 Katherine Street, Sandown, 2196<br />

PO Box 786055, Sandton, 2146 | Tel: +27 11 269 0000 | Fax: +27 11 269 1111<br />

MARKET AND ECONOMIC COMMENT<br />

OCTOBER <strong>2012</strong><br />

global<br />

local<br />

Risk assets pulled back in <strong>October</strong> after a strong third-quarter rally in<br />

anticipation of more stimulus measures from the European Central Bank<br />

(ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The MSCI World and Emerging<br />

Market indices were down 0.6% in the month, but there was mixed<br />

performance across the major regions. Equity markets in Japan and the<br />

US pulled back in <strong>October</strong>, with disappointing company earnings weighing<br />

down on US stocks. European equities, on the other hand, ended the<br />

month on a positive footing, with bond yields of peripheral economies<br />

continuing to fall.<br />

Economic data was also mixed, with some improvement seen in the US,<br />

while Europe continued to deteriorate. Eurozone GDP growth turned<br />

negative in the second quarter, tipping the region into much expected<br />

recession. Solid growth in Germany and France had previously helped<br />

cushion the region from the recessionary effects of peripheral economies.<br />

However, economic activity in these core countries slowed significantly.<br />

While the ECB’s bond-buying programme has helped to ease borrowing<br />

costs of highly indebted countries, it does not address the deeprooted<br />

structural issues in the region. Economic conditions continue to<br />

deteriorate, while debt levels remain unsustainably high.<br />

US third-quarter GDP growth improved from the previous period, while<br />

house prices continued to stabilise. Improved US economic activity<br />

indicates a modest recovery is underway. However, the unfolding crisis<br />

in Europe and the looming fiscal cliff (amounting to $600 billion of<br />

tax increases and spending cuts due to take effect at the beginning of<br />

2013) pose a significant downside risk to the recovery. The re-election<br />

of President Obama has put the spotlight back onto the fiscal position.<br />

If policymakers don’t take action to prevent these automatic fiscal<br />

adjustments, it is estimated that this could result in a fiscal withdrawal of<br />

over 4% of GDP, which would trigger a recession. Congress remains split,<br />

therefore an agreement on how to address the fiscal cliff is not expected<br />

to be easily reached – which may result in uncertainty and weigh down on<br />

investor confidence.<br />

The JSE/FTSE ALSI continued to set record highs, jumping above<br />

37 000 in <strong>October</strong>. Local stocks were up 4.2% in rand terms, with<br />

Resources leading the rally. Resources were up 6.2%, Industrials gained<br />

4.1%, and Financials rose 1.5%. In dollar terms, local shares were<br />

down 1.2%, underperforming emerging-market equities. The rand lost<br />

significant ground in <strong>October</strong> ahead of the Medium Term Budget on<br />

fears that the outcome might result in a further credit-rating downgrade.<br />

The rand weakened to just under R9.00/$ at the beginning of <strong>October</strong><br />

from around R8.50/$ at end- September. It retreated somewhat to<br />

R8.60/$ and closed the month at R8.67/$. The rand is expected to<br />

remain vulnerable in the short term, pressured by continuing labour<br />

unrest as well as policy uncertainty ahead of the ANC’s elective<br />

conference in December. The deterioration in the current account also<br />

makes the currency vulnerable. The vulnerability of the rand poses an<br />

upside risk to the inflation outlook. Inflationary pressures have already<br />

started to build, pushed up by higher food and energy costs. Consumer<br />

inflation rose to 5.5% year on year (y/y) in September after drifting lower<br />

in the second quarter to 4.9% in July. Further weakness in the rand<br />

could see inflation breaching the 6% upper target in 2013.<br />

Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan delivered a reasonable Medium Term<br />

budget, which allayed earlier fears of policy changes and a further<br />

credit-rating downgrade. The Budget contained nothing in the way of<br />

new policy measures, but instead reaffirmed government’s commitment<br />

to prudent fiscal management in a challenging economic environment.<br />

Growth forecasts were revised lower to 2.5% and 3% in <strong>2012</strong> and<br />

2013 respectively (from 2.7% and 3.6% previously). This saw an<br />

upward revision in the budget deficit to 4.8% of GDP in the <strong>2012</strong>/2013<br />

financial year from 4.6% previously. Government debt is at around 40%<br />

of GDP, which is high by emerging-market standards, but much lower<br />

than debt levels in developed economies. While this gives the country<br />

some investment advantage relative to developed economies, growing<br />

concerns about the domestic political environment pose a risk to the<br />

country’s investment fundamentals.<br />

y/y % growth<br />

6<br />

4<br />

2<br />

0<br />

-2<br />

-4<br />

-6<br />

Jun-98<br />

Feb-99<br />

Oct-99<br />

Jun-00<br />

Source: I-Net Bridge<br />

Feb-01<br />

Oct-01<br />

Eurozone GDP Growth<br />

Jun-02<br />

Feb-03<br />

Oct-03<br />

Jun-04<br />

Feb-05<br />

Oct-05<br />

Jun-06<br />

Feb-07<br />

Oct-07<br />

Jun-08<br />

Feb-09<br />

Oct-09<br />

Jun-10<br />

Feb-11<br />

Oct-11<br />

Jun-12<br />

| 1 |<br />

14<br />

12<br />

10<br />

8<br />

6<br />

4<br />

2<br />

0<br />

Consumer Inflaiton vs Prime Rate<br />

Feb-00<br />

Oct-00<br />

Jun-01<br />

Feb-02<br />

Oct-02<br />

Jun-03<br />

Feb-04<br />

Oct-04<br />

Jun-05<br />

Feb-06<br />

Oct-06<br />

Jun-07<br />

Feb-08<br />

Oct-08<br />

Jun-09<br />

Feb-10<br />

Oct-10<br />

Jun-11<br />

Consumer Price Inflation (%) Prime Rate (%, rhs)<br />

Source: I-Net Bridge<br />

Feb-12<br />

Oct-12<br />

18<br />

17<br />

16<br />

15<br />

14<br />

13<br />

12<br />

11<br />

10<br />

9<br />

8


global asset-class performance<br />

<strong>October</strong> <strong>2012</strong> Month Q3 <strong>2012</strong> Q2 <strong>2012</strong> YTD 1 Year 3 Year (p.a.) 5 Year (p.a.)<br />

Equities ($)<br />

MSCI World -0.65% 6.84% -4.86% 11.72% 12.82% 8.48% -2.30%<br />

USA -1.85% 6.35% -2.75% 12.59% 14.29% 13.21% 0.36%<br />

UK 0.65% 7.15% -4.13% 7.58% 11.23% 7.64% -4.21%<br />

Europe 1.47% 8.76% -7.05% 10.81% 13.67% 3.57% -5.69%<br />

Japan -1.87% -0.77% -7.29% 11.35% 0.52% -0.18% -6.65%<br />

Pacific Basin ex Japan 1.81% 11.03% -4.86% 11.31% 19.70% 8.60% -0.67%<br />

MSCI Emerging -0.60% 7.89% -8.77% 14.13% 11.66% 5.70% -3.17%<br />

South Africa -1.15% 6.31% -5.24% 11.51% 11.05% 11.36% 0.61%<br />

Global Bonds -0.63% 2.99% 0.92% -0.51% 2.76% 4.04% 5.97%<br />

Source: Data Stream<br />

local asset-class performance<br />

<strong>October</strong> <strong>2012</strong> Month Q3 <strong>2012</strong> Q2 <strong>2012</strong> YTD 1 Year 3 Year (p.a.) 5 Year (p.a.)<br />

Equities 4.22% 7.26% 0.98% 19.65% 18.59% 15.35% 6.52%<br />

Bonds -0.60% 5.00% 5.19% 12.39% 13.22% 12.51% 10.09%<br />

Cash STeFI Overnight 0.39% 1.21% 1.28% 4.29% 5.19% 5.66% 7.42%<br />

Inflation-linked Bonds 1.37% 8.46% 1.54% 14.66% 19.94% 12.91% 12.64%<br />

Listed Property -4.08% 10.98% 10.31% 26.84% 28.30% 22.23% 13.19%<br />

Source: I-Net Bridge<br />

dominant themes<br />

<strong>October</strong> <strong>2012</strong> Month Q3 <strong>2012</strong> Q2 <strong>2012</strong> YTD 1 Year 3 Year (p.a.) 5 Year (p.a.)<br />

Large Caps 5.03% 7.62% 0.56% 19.47% 17.41% 14.83% 5.87%<br />

Mid Caps 0.39% 5.38% 3.19% 20.69% 24.69% 18.48% 11.41%<br />

Small Caps -0.02% 6.23% 1.81% 19.39% 25.15% 16.06% 4.45%<br />

Resources 6.18% 2.92% -3.56% 1.94% -1.64% 5.13% -1.06%<br />

Financials 1.53% 6.52% 4.59% 27.55% 31.05% 17.50% 6.15%<br />

Industrials 4.15% 10.48% 2.60% 30.43% 30.08% 23.25% 13.77%<br />

Source: I-Net Bridge<br />

dominant themes<br />

<strong>October</strong> <strong>2012</strong> Month Q3 <strong>2012</strong> Q2 <strong>2012</strong> YTD 1 Year 3 Year (p.a.) 5 Year (p.a.)<br />

All Share Index 4.22% 7.26% 0.98% 19.65% 18.59% 15.35% 6.52%<br />

SWIX 3.29% 7.26% 1.73% 21.14% 21.81% 16.78% 7.69%<br />

Oil & Gas 2.55% 8.73% -6.13% 0.59% 8.33% 12.01% 6.08%<br />

Basic Materials 6.65% 1.83% -2.89% 3.38% -1.37% 4.97% -1.73%<br />

Consumer Goods 5.54% 10.35% 1.95% 31.64% 25.86% 26.55% 19.44%<br />

Construction 1.24% -2.13% -11.34% 6.43% 8.12% -6.94% -11.30%<br />

Health 6.92% 9.19% 10.87% 48.22% 49.84% 29.47% 22.06%<br />

Consumer Services 5.58% 13.38% 5.62% 41.65% 44.14% 31.32% 20.50%<br />

Telecommunications -1.09% 14.43% 1.25% 14.43% 18.05% 15.03% 6.85%<br />

Technology -0.28% 12.98% 5.60% 31.33% 40.56% 31.81% 17.25%<br />

Banks 2.03% 1.85% 2.73% 23.41% 26.29% 15.65% 7.29%<br />

Source: I-Net Bridge<br />

Prepared by the Market and Economic Research Team<br />

While we’ve made every effort to ensure that the information in this document is current, this cannot be guaranteed. <strong>Alexander</strong> <strong>Forbes</strong> Group is hereby indemnified from and against all and any loss,<br />

damage, costs and expenses which may be sustained or incurred directly or indirectly as a result of any error or ommission in this document. Copyright in this material is expressly reserved and this<br />

form and all attachments (where applicable) remains the exclusive property of <strong>Alexander</strong> <strong>Forbes</strong>. This form and all attachments (where applicable) may not be copied, stored, retrieved or in any way<br />

reproduced without the express written permission of <strong>Alexander</strong> <strong>Forbes</strong>. Breach of copyright is a serious offence and can lead to litigation.<br />

| 2 |


<strong>INSIGHT</strong> | OCTOBER <strong>2012</strong><br />

GREEN IS THE NEW BLACK<br />

Adopting an eco-friendly lifestyle<br />

doesn’t need to turn your life<br />

upside down or cost money. There<br />

are small things you can do every<br />

day to protect the environment and<br />

make sure future generations have a<br />

healthy planet to look forward to.<br />

Meat Free Mondays<br />

Started in 2000 by Paul McCartney,<br />

the Meat Free Monday campaign<br />

encourages you to give up meat<br />

for one day a week to reduce your<br />

environmental impact. Local website<br />

Capetonians Against Animal Abuse<br />

(CA3) explains the impact: “If all<br />

Americans did not eat meat for<br />

one day a week, they would save<br />

99.6 megatons of greenhouse gas<br />

emissions. That’s equivalent to<br />

46 million return flights from New<br />

York to Los Angeles.”<br />

Squeaky clean<br />

When life gives you lemons, use<br />

them to scrub. Lemons are a great<br />

natural cleaner and are especially<br />

effective when mixed with salt. You<br />

could also choose green cleaning<br />

supplies instead of chemical<br />

cleaners. Natural supplies don’t<br />

release harmful chemicals or toxins<br />

into the air.<br />

Unplugged<br />

Some estimates suggest that as<br />

much as 40% of our monthly<br />

electricity bill goes towards powering<br />

home appliances that are turned off.<br />

While every home is different, it’s<br />

safe to say that you can save energy<br />

and even a few rands by unplugging<br />

appliances you aren’t using. An easy<br />

way to do this and make it part of<br />

your daily routine, is to switch off<br />

your plugs at the electricity board<br />

when you leave your house in the<br />

mornings and switch them back on<br />

when you return.<br />

Slow the flow<br />

Fix any leaking bathroom or kitchen<br />

taps. Another way to save water is<br />

to switch to low-pressure shower<br />

heads. You’ll save the planet and<br />

money on your water bill every<br />

month.<br />

Sources:<br />

www.meatfreemondays.com<br />

www.leaderpost.com<br />

www.caaa.co.za/meat-free-mondays<br />

An authorised financial services provider FAIS Licence No. 31753 Co. Reg No. 1995/012674/07

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