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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT Together With THE ANNUAL REPORT of the COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Transmitted to the Congress March 2014

  • Page 2: economic report of the president tr
  • Page 6: economic report of the president
  • Page 9 and 10: class education. And number four is
  • Page 11 and 12: I believe this can be a breakthroug
  • Page 14: letter of transmittal Council of Ec
  • Page 17 and 18: Energy.............................
  • Page 19 and 20: POLICIES TO FOSTER PRODUCTIVITY GRO
  • Page 21 and 22: FIGURES 1.1. Monthly Change in Priv
  • Page 23 and 24: 5.1. Nonfarm Private Business Produ
  • Page 25 and 26: Box 4-1: Box 4-2: Box 4-3: Box 4-4:
  • Page 27 and 28: Figure 1-1 Monthly Change in Privat
  • Page 29 and 30: Figure 1-2 U.S. Merchandise and Ove
  • Page 31 and 32: potential debt-ceiling breach. Ulti
  • Page 33 and 34: instituted a range of measures that
  • Page 35 and 36: this year, Congress passed appropri
  • Page 37 and 38: on foreign energy sources while cre
  • Page 39 and 40: help move the Federal government cl
  • Page 41 and 42: Figure 1-10 Growth in Real Average
  • Page 43 and 44: Figure 1-12 Building Permits for Ne
  • Page 45 and 46: skilled inventors and entrepreneurs
  • Page 47 and 48: the decline in union membership. As
  • Page 50 and 51: C H A P T E R 2 THE YEAR IN REVIEW
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    Figure 2-1 Mean GDP Growth, 2007-20

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    esult, the U.S. Government went int

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    it likely will be appropriate to ma

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    Figure 2-4 Treasury Bills Maturing

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    Figure 2-5 Current Account Balance

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    long-term budget deficit, the highe

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    could support a rise in consumption

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    the methodological revisions (such

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    Figure 2-10 Real State and Local Go

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    Billions of dollars 250 200 150 100

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    account deficit recently reached a

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    According to the Office of the Unit

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    Figure 2-15 Housing Starts, 1960-20

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    Figure 2-17 Cumulative Over- and Un

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    Trillion Btu 1,800 1,600 1,400 Figu

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    Box 2-3: The Climate Action Plan In

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    Figure 2-24 Unemployment Rate by Du

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    following the business-cycle trough

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    price inflation and a measure of ec

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    Table 2-1 Administration Economic F

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    Table 2-2 Supply-Side Components of

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    The ratio of real GDP to nonfarm bu

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    C H A P T E R 3 THE ECONOMIC IMPACT

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    etter trajectory for long-run growt

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    Table 3-1 Forecasted and Actual Rea

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    (4) To invest in transportation, en

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    Table 3-2 An Overview of Recovery A

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    Enacted 2009 Table 3-4 Fiscal Suppo

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    Percent 6.0 5.0 Figure 3-4 Fiscal E

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    Financial Industry. TARP and other

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    attempt to maintain stable inflatio

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    Percent 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0

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    the Recovery Act was phasing down.

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    Figure 3-9 Change in Nonfarm Employ

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    eal GDP growth in this recovery (2.

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    y systemic crises during the 1930s

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    Figure 3-10 Disposable Personal Inc

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    worker to become eligible based on

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    Capital Labor Table 3-8 Recovery Ac

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    total highway spending in 2010 was

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    higher education in the United Stat

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    Figure 3-12 Advanced Renewable Elec

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    oadband infrastructure (for instanc

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    and to set the stage for stronger f

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    Table 3-9 Recovery Act Outlays, Obl

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    Recovery Act extended and expanded

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    city passenger rail, $10 billion fo

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    introducing forward-looking behavio

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    ecognized onset of the recession. A

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    Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012) s

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    C H A P T E R 4 RECENT TRENDS IN HE

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    to the recent slow growth in health

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    Table 4-1 Real Per-Capita NHE Annua

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    have improved dramatically in ways

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    Table 4-2 Recent Trends in Several

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    5 4 3 Figure 4-3 Growth in Real Per

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    care cost growth: by reducing insur

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    substantial changes to the core Med

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    Box 4-2: How Will the ACA’s Cover

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    high-quality care, this research in

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    shared savings based on the total c

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    In particular, various recent studi

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    Recognizing the importance of other

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    2014 $ 140 120 100 Figure 4-5 Infla

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    Box 4-4: Premiums on the ACA Market

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    There is relatively little empirica

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    C H A P T E R 5 FOSTERING PRODUCTIV

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    help increase the productivity of t

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    Box 5-1: Measuring Multifactor Prod

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    Figure 5-1 Nonfarm Private Business

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    Figure 5-2 15-Year Centered Moving

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    the extent to which productivity ga

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    Period Table 5-3 Average Annual Rat

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    directly dampen productivity growth

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    Figure 5-4 Basic Research Expenditu

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    least one foreign-born inventor. Mo

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    Figure 5-6 Relative Investment of t

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    y enabling greater competition, par

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    Figure 5-8 Federal Agencies with Mo

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    devices, a 35 percent increase. Thi

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    Administration, and $2.5 billion by

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    Finally, it is crucial that the ben

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    Providers who adopt and demonstrate

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    Figure 5-10 Patents Issued in the U

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    market forces may be suggesting tha

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    Several provisions of the America I

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    drugs. When generic drugs enter a m

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    Optimism was high at the outset of

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    Box 6-1: Flaws In The Official Pove

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    Box 6-2: A Consumption Poverty Meas

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    then setting poverty rates based on

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    the head was out of work for a full

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    expenditures on medical expenses fr

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    for different housing costs across

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    Index (1973=100) 160 Figure 6-2 Ave

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    Figure 6-3 Women's 50-10 Wage Gap v

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    that child poverty increases by 8.5

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    labor market to further encourage w

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    Percent 30 Figure 6-5 Trends in Mar

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    Percent 30 Figure 6-6 Trends in Mar

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    Table 6-2 Poverty Rate Reduction fr

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    Figure 6-7 Percentage Point Impact

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    effects in the same range for Wisco

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    Figure 6-9 Real Per Capita Expendit

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    Figure 6-10 Economic Mobility for C

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    eliminating child poverty, the bene

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    Expanding Health Care Security The

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    Box 6-5: Raising the Minimum Wage I

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    schools. The School Improvement Gra

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    create individually, it is very dif

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    level was $11 billion (about $71 bi

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    Box 7-1: Impact Evaluations, Proces

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    entrepreneurs are more likely than

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    to the treatment and control groups

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    tool in the private sector for ongo

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    Impact of the Evidence-Based Agenda

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    the FAFSA with the income informati

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    home visiting programs to reach add

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    egulators have been hesitant to app

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    there are models that effectively s

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    esearch to help facilitate ongoing

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    government programs. Key considerat

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    strategy has been used recently to

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    mental health block grant programs

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    To help address these barriers, the

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    also using cutting-edge technology

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    _____. 2013. Data update to “Inco

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    European Central Bank. 2012. “Pre

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    Angrist, Joshua D., and Jörn-Steff

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    ___. 2010i. “Cost Estimate: Budge

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    Executive Office of the President a

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    Office of Science and Technology Po

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    ___. 2008. Speech at the Wall Stree

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    ______. 2012b. “Letter to the Hon

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    ______. 2013b. “Medicaid Enrollme

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    Acemoglu, Daron and David Autor. 20

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    BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics).

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    Farrell, Joseph, John Hayes, Carl S

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    Heckman, James J., Rodrigo Pinto, a

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    Mishel, Lawrence, Heidi Shierholz,

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    Andersson, Fredrik, Harry J. Holzer

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    Chetty, Raj, John N. Friedman, Sore

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    Eissa, Nada and Hilary W. Hoynes. 2

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    Ichino, Andrea, Loukas Karabarbouni

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    Nicholson-Crotty, Sean and Kenneth

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    Angrist, Joshua D., and Jörn-Steff

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    Dobbie, Will and Roland G. Fryer. 2

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    Paulsell, Diane, S. Avellar, E. Sam

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    A P P E N D I X A REPORT TO THE PRE

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    Council Members and Their Dates of

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    Report to the President on the Acti

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    also worked on several issues relat

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    Adrienne Pilot . . . . . . . . . .

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    Departures in 2013 In August, David

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    C O N T E N T S GDP, INCOME, PRICES

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    General Notes Detail in these table

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    Historical data may be subject to r

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    Table B-1. Percent changes in real

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    Table B-2. Gross domestic product,

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    Table B-4. Growth rates in real gro

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    Year or quarter Total Table B-6. Co

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    Table B-8. New private housing unit

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    Table B-10. Changes in consumer pri

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    Table B-11. Civilian population and

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    Year or month Table B-13. Unemploym

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    Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul

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    Year or quarter Table B-16. Product

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    Table B-17. Bond yields and interes

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    Table B-19. Federal receipts, outla

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    Table B-21. Federal receipts and ou

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    Table B-23. Federal and State and l

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    Table B-25. U.S. Treasury securitie

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    SOURCES For each table, this sectio

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    B-17. Real personal consumption exp

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    B-37. Civilian employment by demogr

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    B-57. Manufacturing and trade sales

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    B-74. Credit market borrowing Board

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    Corporate Profits and Finance B-90.

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    B-107. International investment pos

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