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APPENDIX 1: COMPONENTS OF THE RECOVERY ACT AND SUBSEQUENT FISCAL MEASURES..........................................................133 Tax Relief ............................................................................................ 134 Aid to Affected Individuals................................................................ 136 State Fiscal Relief................................................................................ 137 Investments.......................................................................................... 138 Subsequent Fiscal Measures.............................................................. 139 APPENDIX 2: FISCAL MULTIPLIERS: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE...................................................................................................139 Forward-Looking Models with Rigidities ...................................... 141 Time Series Evidence ......................................................................... 142 Cross-Sectional Multipliers ............................................................... 145 CHAPTER 4. RECENT TRENDS IN HEALTH CARE COSTS, THEIR IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY, AND THE ROLE OF THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT..............................................................147 RECENT TRENDS IN HEALTH CARE COSTS.........................................150 WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW, AND WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT...156 The Role of the 2007-09 Recession................................................... 156 Non-ACA Factors Affecting Health Spending Growth................. 160 The Role of the Affordable Care Act................................................ 162 ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF SLOW HEALTH SPENDING GROWTH....171 Higher Living Standards.................................................................... 171 Lower Deficits...................................................................................... 173 Higher Employment and Economic Growth................................... 176 CONCLUSION.............................................................................................178 CHAPTER 5. FOSTERING PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH.............179 TRENDS IN TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY.....................................181 Labor Productivity, Total Factor Productivity, and Multifactor Productivity.......................................................................................... 181 Postwar U.S. Productivity Growth................................................... 182 PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND INEQUALITY GROWTH.................189 Trends in Inequality, Productivity Growth, and Compensation...................................................................................... 189 Technological Change and Inequality............................................. 190 Contents | 13
POLICIES TO FOSTER PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND TO HELP ENSURE THAT EVERYONE BENEFITS FROM IT..................................193 TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH.............197 Innovation and Investment............................................................... 197 Four Key Areas for Telecommunications Policy............................ 198 Challenges to Broad Adoption of Telecommunications Technology........................................................................................... 209 PATENTS......................................................................................................212 Standard-Essential Patents................................................................ 213 Patent Assertion Entities.................................................................... 215 CONCLUSION.............................................................................................217 CHAPTER 6. THE WAR ON POVERTY 50 YEARS LATER: A PROGRESS REPORT...............................................................................221 MEASURING POVERTY: WHO IS POOR IN AMERICA.......................223 Measuring Poverty.............................................................................. 223 The Official Poverty Measure........................................................... 223 The Supplemental Poverty Measure................................................ 225 Who is Poor........................................................................................ 228 Employment......................................................................................... 229 Education Level................................................................................... 230 Children................................................................................................ 230 The Elderly.......................................................................................... 230 Women................................................................................................. 232 Race and Ethnicity.............................................................................. 232 People with Disabilities...................................................................... 233 Rural and Urban Communities........................................................ 233 ASSESSING THE WAR ON POVERTY......................................................234 Context................................................................................................. 234 Correcting the Historical Account of Poverty Since the 1960s .... 240 Measuring the Direct Impact of Antipoverty Efforts..................... 242 THE ROLE OF ANTIPOVERTY PROGRAMS: A CLOSER LOOK...........245 Antipoverty Effects of Specific Programs......................................... 245 The Effects of Antipoverty Programs on Work and Earnings...... 248 Economic Mobility.............................................................................. 252 Intergenerational Returns.................................................................. 255 14 | Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers
Page 1 and 2: ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
Page 4: C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
Page 8 and 9: economic report of the president To
Page 10 and 11: year-old. In the meantime, I’m go
Page 12: the annual report of the council of
Page 16 and 17: C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1. PROMOTIN
Page 20 and 21: THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S RECORD
Page 22 and 23: 2.15. Housing Starts, 1960-2013....
Page 24 and 25: 3.1. Forecasted and Actual Real GDP
Page 26 and 27: C H A P T E R 1 PROMOTING OPPORTUNI
Page 28 and 29: Opportunity, Growth, and Security i
Page 30 and 31: crisis—continue to rebound and co
Page 32 and 33: Figure 1-4 Real GDP Per Working-Age
Page 34 and 35: Figure 1-6 Change in Poverty Rate F
Page 36 and 37: Figure 1-7 Domestic Crude Oil Produ
Page 38 and 39: Figure 1-8 Growth in Real Per Capit
Page 40 and 41: Figure 1-9 Unemployment Rate by Dur
Page 42 and 43: e needed to make up for a decades-l
Page 44 and 45: Annual percent change 2.50 15-year
Page 46 and 47: Figure 1-14 Share of National Incom
Page 48: Along with steps that create jobs,
Page 51 and 52: corner, with purchases increasing d
Page 53 and 54: the four quarters of 2013, or enoug
Page 55 and 56: Percent of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -
Page 57 and 58: Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Figure 2-3
Page 59 and 60: In the euro area, the unemployment
Page 61 and 62: Figure 2-6 Cumulative Flows into Mu
Page 63 and 64: Figure 2-7 Household Deleveraging,
Page 65 and 66: Box 2-1: The 2013 Comprehensive Rev
Page 67 and 68: Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Figure 2
Page 69 and 70:
Figure 2-11 State and Local Pension
Page 71 and 72:
Percent of GDP 2 1 0 Figure 2-14 Cu
Page 73 and 74:
Box 2-2. Administration Trade Polic
Page 75 and 76:
Upon completion, the TPP and T-TIP
Page 77 and 78:
percent of households report that i
Page 79 and 80:
Figure 2-18 Petroleum Net Imports,
Page 81 and 82:
Figure 2-21 U.S. Per Capita Consump
Page 83 and 84:
Percent 11 Figure 2-22 Unemployment
Page 85 and 86:
Figure 2-25 Predicted vs. Actual Ma
Page 87 and 88:
Box 2-4: Unemployment Duration and
Page 89 and 90:
The Long-Term Outlook The 11-Year F
Page 91 and 92:
Growth in GDP over the Long Term As
Page 93 and 94:
Box 2-5: Immigration Reform and Pot
Page 95 and 96:
Even with this growth, however, the
Page 97 and 98:
families. The other half was for in
Page 99 and 100:
ecause of rapidly declining stock a
Page 101 and 102:
Obama Administration and the 111th
Page 103 and 104:
Figure 3-1 Recovery Act Programs by
Page 105 and 106:
other cases, new measures expanded
Page 107 and 108:
Figure 3-2 Recovery Act and Subsequ
Page 109 and 110:
Box 3-1: Other Administration Polic
Page 111 and 112:
challenges, and how economists have
Page 113 and 114:
Table 3-5 Estimated Output Multipli
Page 115 and 116:
Figure 3-7 Quarterly Effect of the
Page 117 and 118:
Table 3-6 Estimates of the Effects
Page 119 and 120:
International Comparison The 2008 c
Page 121 and 122:
Box 3-2: The U.S. Recovery in Compa
Page 123 and 124:
Table 3-7 Tax Relief and Income Sup
Page 125 and 126:
traditionally been jointly financed
Page 127 and 128:
downturn in the economy. Even thoug
Page 129 and 130:
Figure 3-11 Recovery Act Cumulative
Page 131 and 132:
The Recovery Act also invested in r
Page 133 and 134:
helped individuals who chose to ret
Page 135 and 136:
the period, even though total power
Page 137 and 138:
average—then the resulting increa
Page 139 and 140:
Alternative Minimum Tax relief, bus
Page 141 and 142:
Through the end of a Individual Tax
Page 143 and 144:
y Poterba (1994), states and locali
Page 145 and 146:
Table 3-11 Fiscal Support for the E
Page 147 and 148:
spells. Because the resulting unemp
Page 149 and 150:
literature uses two different appro
Page 151 and 152:
Table 3-12 Summary of Cross-Section
Page 153 and 154:
the CMS projections show real per-c
Page 155 and 156:
will accrue to workers as higher wa
Page 157 and 158:
Box 4-1: Two Measures of Growth in
Page 159 and 160:
Figure 4-1 Growth in Real Per Capit
Page 161 and 162:
in particular may not exactly track
Page 163 and 164:
find that even those seniors who di
Page 165 and 166:
the slowdown in real (that is, infl
Page 167 and 168:
health care costs for an individual
Page 169 and 170:
estimate for the ACA found that its
Page 171 and 172:
Figure 4-4 Medicare 30-Day, All-Con
Page 173 and 174:
agreements among the providers them
Page 175 and 176:
payment for physician services, the
Page 177 and 178:
Box 4-3: The Cost Slowdown and ACA
Page 179 and 180:
2010a; 2011; 2012c; 2013a; 2014), w
Page 181 and 182:
Figure 4-6 Recent CBO Projections o
Page 183 and 184:
Conclusion The evidence is clear th
Page 185 and 186:
facilitated this private-sector tec
Page 187 and 188:
esulting gap between the actual gro
Page 189 and 190:
Table 5-1 Sources of Productivity I
Page 191 and 192:
Table 5-2 Nonfarm Private Business
Page 193 and 194:
of the productivity improvement res
Page 195 and 196:
Figure 5-3 Growth in Productivity a
Page 197 and 198:
improving and college completion ra
Page 199 and 200:
Box 5-2: Does Inequality Affect Pro
Page 201 and 202:
Percent 3.5 Figure 5-5 Composition
Page 203 and 204:
• Just two of the largest U.S. te
Page 205 and 206:
Box 5-3: Just-in-Time Manufacturing
Page 207 and 208:
Figure 5-7 Exclusive and Shared All
Page 209 and 210:
Box 5-4: Spectrum Investment Polici
Page 211 and 212:
To stimulate investment in more adv
Page 213 and 214:
Because current uses of technology
Page 215 and 216:
Box 5-5: Electronic Health Records
Page 217 and 218:
about the array of services and sup
Page 219 and 220:
and, in such cases, provides partie
Page 221 and 222:
Box 5-6: The Leahy-Smith America In
Page 223 and 224:
Box 5-7: Pay-For-Delay Settlements
Page 226 and 227:
C H A P T E R 6 THE WAR ON POVERTY
Page 228 and 229:
Measuring Poverty: Who is Poor in A
Page 230 and 231:
thresholds ever since. These dollar
Page 232 and 233:
of necessary items, including food,
Page 234 and 235:
Table 6-1 Poverty Rates by Selected
Page 236 and 237:
Box 6-3: Women and Poverty While wo
Page 238 and 239:
However, this reflects smaller decl
Page 240 and 241:
Percent 25 Figure 6-1 Trends in the
Page 242 and 243:
Box 6-4: Social Programs Serve All
Page 244 and 245:
of low- and middle-income workers a
Page 246 and 247:
particularly valuable since they es
Page 248 and 249:
Figure 6-4 Official vs Anchored Sup
Page 250 and 251:
deep market poverty driven by the b
Page 252 and 253:
work: in 2010, for example, unemplo
Page 254 and 255:
out of poverty through job training
Page 256 and 257:
e noted that researchers have found
Page 258 and 259:
2012). Among the children of low-ea
Page 260 and 261:
Education appears to be one of the
Page 262 and 263:
Friedman, and Rockoff (2011) find t
Page 264 and 265:
including an additional $25 a week
Page 266 and 267:
Figure 6-11 Recovery Act and Subseq
Page 268 and 269:
Empowering Every Child with a Quali
Page 270 and 271:
modernize America’s high schools
Page 272 and 273:
low-income Americans and their chil
Page 274 and 275:
C H A P T E R 7 EVALUATION AS A TOO
Page 276 and 277:
program evaluation efforts. For exa
Page 278 and 279:
went to preschool would have had if
Page 280 and 281:
y adopting successful interventions
Page 282 and 283:
Box 7-2: Using Behavioral Economics
Page 284 and 285:
Box 7-3: “Rapid Cycle” Evaluati
Page 286 and 287:
Figure 7-1 Outlays for Grants to St
Page 288 and 289:
performance data, fewer than half o
Page 290 and 291:
Investment Act programs. The PROMIS
Page 292 and 293:
Figure 7-2 Inventory of Beds for Ho
Page 294 and 295:
example, included a nondiscretionar
Page 296 and 297:
Other benefits of considering evalu
Page 298 and 299:
with the treatment effect and thus
Page 300 and 301:
unemployment insurance wage and ben
Page 302 and 303:
hard for researchers to access for
Page 304 and 305:
REFERENCES Chapter 1 Almunia, Migue
Page 306 and 307:
____. 2014. “Press Release: Janua
Page 308 and 309:
and the TPP at the Peterson Institu
Page 310 and 311:
Increase Employment Evidence from t
Page 312 and 313:
___. 2010b. “The Economic Impact
Page 314 and 315:
___. 2012. World Economic Outlook A
Page 316 and 317:
Polak Annual Research Conference. W
Page 318 and 319:
Baicker, Katherine and Amitabh Chan
Page 320 and 321:
Daly, Mary, Bart Hobijn, and Brian
Page 322 and 323:
Nominal Wages,” International Jou
Page 324 and 325:
Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Revie
Page 326 and 327:
Chien, Colleen V. 2012. “Reformin
Page 328 and 329:
GAO (Government Accountability Offi
Page 330 and 331:
Jorgenson, Dale. 2001. “Informati
Page 332 and 333:
Integration in Economic Development
Page 334 and 335:
_____. 2007. “Improving the Safet
Page 336 and 337:
Dahl, Gordon B. and Lance Lochner.
Page 338 and 339:
Heckman, James J. and Dimitriy V. M
Page 340 and 341:
Ludwig, Jens and Douglas Miller. 20
Page 342 and 343:
Sharkey, Patrick. 2009. “Neighbor
Page 344 and 345:
_____. 2013. “Practical Evaluatio
Page 346 and 347:
www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/comm
Page 348:
Stock, James H., and Mark Watson. 2
Page 352 and 353:
letter of transmittal Council of Ec
Page 354:
Council Members and Their Dates of
Page 357 and 358:
The Members of the Council Betsey S
Page 359 and 360:
Act has had on reducing health care
Page 361 and 362:
Statistical Office The Statistical
Page 364:
A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
Page 367 and 368:
INTEREST RATES, MONEY STOCK, AND GO
Page 369 and 370:
2013-to-2014 TABLE NUMBER MATCH 201
Page 371 and 372:
Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
Page 373 and 374:
Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
Page 375 and 376:
Table B-3. Quantity and price index
Page 377 and 378:
Table B-5. Real exports and imports
Page 379 and 380:
Year Total 2 Table B-7. Real farm i
Page 381 and 382:
Table B-9. Median money income (in
Page 383 and 384:
Year or month Civilian noninstituti
Page 385 and 386:
Year or month All civilian workers
Page 387 and 388:
Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
Page 389 and 390:
Table B-15. Hours and earnings in p
Page 391 and 392:
Year and month Interest Rates, Mone
Page 393 and 394:
Year and month Table B-18. Money st
Page 395 and 396:
Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
Page 397 and 398:
Table B-22. Federal receipts, outla
Page 399 and 400:
Table B-24. State and local governm
Page 401 and 402:
End of month Table B-26. Estimated
Page 403 and 404:
B-7. Chain-type price indexes for g
Page 405 and 406:
B-28. National income by type of in
Page 407 and 408:
B-48. Employment cost index, privat
Page 409 and 410:
B-65. Producer price indexes by sta
Page 411 and 412:
B-81. Federal receipts, outlays, su
Page 413 and 414:
B-99. Farm output and productivity
Page 415:
B-111. International reserves Inter
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