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Capital Labor Table 3–8 Recovery Act Long Term Growth Investment by Category Billions of Dollars Estimated Cost (2009–2019) a Construction of Transportation Infrastructure 30.0 Environmental Cleanup and Preservation 28.0 Construction of Buildings 23.9 Public Safety and Defense 8.9 Economic Development 14.6 Memo: Business Tax Incentives 11.7 Pell Grants 17.3 Special Education 12.2 Help for Disadvantaged Children 13.0 Other Human Capital 10.3 Technology Scientific Research 18.3 Clean Energy 78.5 Health and Health IT 32.0 Broadband 6.9 Other 6.7 Total Public Investment b 300.6 Note: a. Estimated cost includes appropriations and tax provisions through 2019:Q3. b. Items may not add to total due to rounding. Total excludes Business Tax Incentives. Source: Office of Management and Budget; Department of the Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis based on the FY2011 budget; CEA calculations. Protecting and Expanding Investments in Physical Capital The Recovery Act and subsequent jobs measures were designed to expand both private capital and public capital. Business Tax Incentives for Private Capital. The theory behind incentivizing private capital holds that, at a time of systemic financial crisis, firms might not have access to sufficient capital through financial markets to invest or might be overly deterred from investing due to uncertainty, as explained in a report by the Treasury’s Office of Tax Policy (2010a). To overcome these impediments to private investment, the Recovery Act and subsequent measures included business tax cuts designed to increase cash flows—like extended periods for net operating loss carrybacks and bonus depreciation—that, in effect, constituted an interest-free loan to businesses. Some economic research (House and Shapiro 2008) has shown that bonus depreciation policies can noticeably raise investment. At low interest rates, these measures had a small net present value cost to the Federal Government, but provided resources to credit-constrained firms to The Economic Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Five Years Later | 123
Figure 3-11 Recovery Act Cumulative Public Investment Outlays, 2009‒2013 Billions of $ 300 2013:Q3 250 200 150 100 50 0 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1 2012:Q1 2013:Q1 Source: Office of Management and Budget; Department of the Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis, based on the FY2013 Mid-Session Review. support investment. Building on this approach, in fall 2010 the President proposed 100 percent expensing for business investment, which, as passed by Congress in December 2010, became the largest temporary business investment tax incentive in history. Transportation and Other Investments in Public Capital. A modern and effective transportation infrastructure network is both necessary for the economy to function and a prerequisite for future growth. Numerous studies have found evidence of large private-sector productivity gains from public infrastructure investments, as highlighted in a report by the Department of Treasury and CEA (2012).20 The early stage of the recovery has been a particularly opportune time to undertake such investments because of the high level of underutilized resources in the economy and low construction costs. The Treasury report also points out that transportation investments can create middle-class jobs and lower transportation costs, which would otherwise weigh on household budgets. The Recovery Act allocated $48 billion to programs administered by the Department of Transportation, with almost 60 percent for highways and 37 percent for public transportation and intercity passenger rail. The magnitude of this aid was substantial. While it is difficult to estimate what transportation expenditures would have been without the Recovery Act, 20 Many of these studies are summarized in Munnell (1992) and Fernald (1999). 124 | Chapter 3
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
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C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
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economic report of the president To
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year-old. In the meantime, I’m go
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the annual report of the council of
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C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1. PROMOTIN
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APPENDIX 1: COMPONENTS OF THE RECOV
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THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S RECORD
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2.15. Housing Starts, 1960-2013....
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3.1. Forecasted and Actual Real GDP
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C H A P T E R 1 PROMOTING OPPORTUNI
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Opportunity, Growth, and Security i
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crisis—continue to rebound and co
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Figure 1-4 Real GDP Per Working-Age
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Figure 1-6 Change in Poverty Rate F
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Figure 1-7 Domestic Crude Oil Produ
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Figure 1-8 Growth in Real Per Capit
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Figure 1-9 Unemployment Rate by Dur
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e needed to make up for a decades-l
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Annual percent change 2.50 15-year
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Figure 1-14 Share of National Incom
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Along with steps that create jobs,
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corner, with purchases increasing d
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the four quarters of 2013, or enoug
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Percent of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -
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Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Figure 2-3
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In the euro area, the unemployment
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Figure 2-6 Cumulative Flows into Mu
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Figure 2-7 Household Deleveraging,
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Box 2-1: The 2013 Comprehensive Rev
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Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Figure 2
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Figure 2-11 State and Local Pension
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Percent of GDP 2 1 0 Figure 2-14 Cu
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Box 2-2. Administration Trade Polic
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Upon completion, the TPP and T-TIP
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Page 79 and 80: Figure 2-18 Petroleum Net Imports,
Page 81 and 82: Figure 2-21 U.S. Per Capita Consump
Page 83 and 84: Percent 11 Figure 2-22 Unemployment
Page 85 and 86: Figure 2-25 Predicted vs. Actual Ma
Page 87 and 88: Box 2-4: Unemployment Duration and
Page 89 and 90: The Long-Term Outlook The 11-Year F
Page 91 and 92: Growth in GDP over the Long Term As
Page 93 and 94: Box 2-5: Immigration Reform and Pot
Page 95 and 96: Even with this growth, however, the
Page 97 and 98: families. The other half was for in
Page 99 and 100: ecause of rapidly declining stock a
Page 101 and 102: Obama Administration and the 111th
Page 103 and 104: Figure 3-1 Recovery Act Programs by
Page 105 and 106: other cases, new measures expanded
Page 107 and 108: Figure 3-2 Recovery Act and Subsequ
Page 109 and 110: Box 3-1: Other Administration Polic
Page 111 and 112: challenges, and how economists have
Page 113 and 114: Table 3-5 Estimated Output Multipli
Page 115 and 116: Figure 3-7 Quarterly Effect of the
Page 117 and 118: Table 3-6 Estimates of the Effects
Page 119 and 120: International Comparison The 2008 c
Page 121 and 122: Box 3-2: The U.S. Recovery in Compa
Page 123 and 124: Table 3-7 Tax Relief and Income Sup
Page 125 and 126: traditionally been jointly financed
Page 127: downturn in the economy. Even thoug
Page 131 and 132: The Recovery Act also invested in r
Page 133 and 134: helped individuals who chose to ret
Page 135 and 136: the period, even though total power
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Page 139 and 140: Alternative Minimum Tax relief, bus
Page 141 and 142: Through the end of a Individual Tax
Page 143 and 144: y Poterba (1994), states and locali
Page 145 and 146: Table 3-11 Fiscal Support for the E
Page 147 and 148: spells. Because the resulting unemp
Page 149 and 150: literature uses two different appro
Page 151 and 152: Table 3-12 Summary of Cross-Section
Page 153 and 154: the CMS projections show real per-c
Page 155 and 156: will accrue to workers as higher wa
Page 157 and 158: Box 4-1: Two Measures of Growth in
Page 159 and 160: Figure 4-1 Growth in Real Per Capit
Page 161 and 162: in particular may not exactly track
Page 163 and 164: find that even those seniors who di
Page 165 and 166: the slowdown in real (that is, infl
Page 167 and 168: health care costs for an individual
Page 169 and 170: estimate for the ACA found that its
Page 171 and 172: Figure 4-4 Medicare 30-Day, All-Con
Page 173 and 174: agreements among the providers them
Page 175 and 176: payment for physician services, the
Page 177 and 178: Box 4-3: The Cost Slowdown and ACA
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2010a; 2011; 2012c; 2013a; 2014), w
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Figure 4-6 Recent CBO Projections o
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Conclusion The evidence is clear th
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facilitated this private-sector tec
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esulting gap between the actual gro
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Table 5-1 Sources of Productivity I
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Table 5-2 Nonfarm Private Business
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of the productivity improvement res
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Figure 5-3 Growth in Productivity a
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improving and college completion ra
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Box 5-2: Does Inequality Affect Pro
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Percent 3.5 Figure 5-5 Composition
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• Just two of the largest U.S. te
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Box 5-3: Just-in-Time Manufacturing
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Figure 5-7 Exclusive and Shared All
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Box 5-4: Spectrum Investment Polici
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To stimulate investment in more adv
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Because current uses of technology
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Box 5-5: Electronic Health Records
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about the array of services and sup
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and, in such cases, provides partie
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Box 5-6: The Leahy-Smith America In
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Box 5-7: Pay-For-Delay Settlements
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C H A P T E R 6 THE WAR ON POVERTY
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Measuring Poverty: Who is Poor in A
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thresholds ever since. These dollar
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of necessary items, including food,
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Table 6-1 Poverty Rates by Selected
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Box 6-3: Women and Poverty While wo
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However, this reflects smaller decl
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Percent 25 Figure 6-1 Trends in the
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Box 6-4: Social Programs Serve All
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of low- and middle-income workers a
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particularly valuable since they es
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Figure 6-4 Official vs Anchored Sup
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deep market poverty driven by the b
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work: in 2010, for example, unemplo
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out of poverty through job training
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e noted that researchers have found
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2012). Among the children of low-ea
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Education appears to be one of the
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Friedman, and Rockoff (2011) find t
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including an additional $25 a week
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Figure 6-11 Recovery Act and Subseq
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Empowering Every Child with a Quali
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modernize America’s high schools
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low-income Americans and their chil
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C H A P T E R 7 EVALUATION AS A TOO
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program evaluation efforts. For exa
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went to preschool would have had if
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y adopting successful interventions
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Box 7-2: Using Behavioral Economics
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Box 7-3: “Rapid Cycle” Evaluati
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Figure 7-1 Outlays for Grants to St
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performance data, fewer than half o
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Investment Act programs. The PROMIS
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Figure 7-2 Inventory of Beds for Ho
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example, included a nondiscretionar
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Other benefits of considering evalu
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with the treatment effect and thus
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unemployment insurance wage and ben
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hard for researchers to access for
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REFERENCES Chapter 1 Almunia, Migue
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____. 2014. “Press Release: Janua
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and the TPP at the Peterson Institu
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Increase Employment Evidence from t
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___. 2010b. “The Economic Impact
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___. 2012. World Economic Outlook A
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Polak Annual Research Conference. W
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Baicker, Katherine and Amitabh Chan
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Daly, Mary, Bart Hobijn, and Brian
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Nominal Wages,” International Jou
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Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Revie
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Chien, Colleen V. 2012. “Reformin
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GAO (Government Accountability Offi
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Jorgenson, Dale. 2001. “Informati
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Integration in Economic Development
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_____. 2007. “Improving the Safet
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Dahl, Gordon B. and Lance Lochner.
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Heckman, James J. and Dimitriy V. M
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Ludwig, Jens and Douglas Miller. 20
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Sharkey, Patrick. 2009. “Neighbor
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_____. 2013. “Practical Evaluatio
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www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/comm
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Stock, James H., and Mark Watson. 2
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letter of transmittal Council of Ec
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Council Members and Their Dates of
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The Members of the Council Betsey S
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Act has had on reducing health care
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Statistical Office The Statistical
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A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
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INTEREST RATES, MONEY STOCK, AND GO
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2013-to-2014 TABLE NUMBER MATCH 201
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Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
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Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
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Table B-3. Quantity and price index
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Table B-5. Real exports and imports
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Year Total 2 Table B-7. Real farm i
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Table B-9. Median money income (in
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Year or month Civilian noninstituti
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Year or month All civilian workers
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Table B-15. Hours and earnings in p
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Year and month Interest Rates, Mone
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Year and month Table B-18. Money st
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Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-22. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-24. State and local governm
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End of month Table B-26. Estimated
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B-7. Chain-type price indexes for g
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B-28. National income by type of in
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B-48. Employment cost index, privat
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B-65. Producer price indexes by sta
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B-81. Federal receipts, outlays, su
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B-99. Farm output and productivity
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B-111. International reserves Inter
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