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Table 4–2 Recent Trends in Several Indicators of Health Care Spending and Price Growth Category Frequency Available through Annual growth, ACA– present 1960– ACA Historical average annual growth 2000– 2007 2007– ACA Panel A: Health care inflation PCE prices for health care goods & services Monthly Dec–13 1.7 5.4 3.3 2.8 CPI for medical care Monthly Dec–13 2.9 5.9 4.3 3.5 Panel B: Health care inflation relative to general price inflation PCE prices for health care goods & services Monthly Dec–13 0.1 1.7 1.0 1.2 CPI for medical care Monthly Dec–13 0.8 1.7 1.6 1.8 Panel C: Employer premiums for family coverage (adjusted for inflation) KFF/HRET survey Annual 2013 4.1 N/A 6.8 3.0 MEPS–IC Annual 2012 3.7 N/A 6.4 3.4 Panel D: PCE spending on health care goods & services (adjusted for inflation and population) PCE spending for health care goods & services Monthly Dec–13 2.2 4.7 3.9 1.4 Note: For monthly data, end points for periods starting or ending in a listed year are treated as occurring in July of that year. Time periods listed as starting or ending with the ACA start with March 2010 for monthly series and 2010 for annual series. PCE stands for personal consumption expenditures. PCE for health care goods and services includes the following categories of spending: health care, pharmaceutical and other medical products, therapeutic appliances and equipment, and net health insurance. Price indices for these categories are combined to construct a Fisher index for the aggregate, and it is growth in this index that is reported in Panel A and Panel B. In Panel D, the PCE spending data are adjusted for inflation using the general PCE deflator and BEA’s population series. CPI stands for consumer price index. Employer premium growth is adjusted for inflation using the GDP deflator. Because MEPS-IC data are not available for 2007, the figures shown for that series reflect average growth rates for the period 2000-2006 and 2006-2010. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index; Kaiser Family Foundation, Employer Health Benefits Survey; Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Insurance Component; CEA calculations. that health care inflation relative to general price inflation has also been unusually low over the last few years. Panel C of Table 4-2 examines trends in employer premiums, as documented in two major surveys of employers. In both surveys, premium growth rates are more than 2.5 percentage points below the 2000-07 trend. Panel D tracks real per capita consumption spending for health care goods and services, based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. By this measure, spending growth is running at about half the rate seen in the first portion of the last decade, and even farther below its longer-term historical average. While these series do suggest that growth may have increased slightly since 2010, they are consistent with the other available data in showing that current growth rates are very low, whether measured against short-term or long-term historical experience. In addition, premium growth Recent Trends in Health Care Costs, Their Impact on the Economy, and the Role of | 155 the Affordable Care Act
in particular may not exactly track underlying cost trends on a year-to-year basis because premiums must be set before actual costs for the year are known. Over the long-run, however, slower growth in health costs will likely be fully reflected in the premiums individuals and employers pay. 156 | Chapter 4 What is Happening Now, and What Will Happen Next A natural—and important—question becomes: What is driving the recent slow growth in health care costs The answer to this question can shed light on whether the current slow growth will last, and what policies could help make that occur. Indeed, slowdowns can be temporary; the earlyand mid-1990s also saw several years of slow growth in health care costs, but costs accelerated once again in the late 1990s and early 2000s. While final conclusions about the causes of the recent slow growth and its persistence await additional data and analysis, some conclusions are possible with the data currently available. Most importantly, the recent slow growth does not appear to be the result of idiosyncratic factors affecting a single category of spending or a particular payer. As documented in Table 4-1, the slowdown has affected all major payers and each of the major categories of spending. The search for explanations must, therefore, look for factors affecting behavior system-wide. The first part of this section examines the role of the 2007-09 recession, the second part discusses potential non-ACA, non-recession explanations for the recent slow growth, and the third part considers the role of the Affordable Care Act, both to date and in the future. The Role of the 2007-09 Recession Some have identified the 2007-09 recession and its aftermath as a potential driver of system-wide changes. For example, job losses may have caused reductions in insurance coverage that curtailed access to health care, or the accompanying falls in families’ disposable incomes could have forced households to prioritize other needs over medical care. Alternatively, disruptions in financial markets could have depleted providers’ cash reserves or reduced their ability to borrow in order to invest in new equipment or facilities, leading to lower utilization in subsequent years.3 If the recession 3 The NHE data do show a very sharp reduction in investment in equipment and structures in the health care sector over 2009 and 2010 of about 12 percent in real per capita terms. It is worth noting, however, that this contraction followed two years of very strong investment growth. Moreover, even as financial conditions have normalized, investment has remained subdued, suggesting that providers do not view themselves as having incurred a substantial investment deficit, nor suggesting an imminent investment-driven rebound in health care cost growth.
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
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C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
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economic report of the president To
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year-old. In the meantime, I’m go
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the annual report of the council of
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C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1. PROMOTIN
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APPENDIX 1: COMPONENTS OF THE RECOV
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THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S RECORD
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2.15. Housing Starts, 1960-2013....
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3.1. Forecasted and Actual Real GDP
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C H A P T E R 1 PROMOTING OPPORTUNI
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Opportunity, Growth, and Security i
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crisis—continue to rebound and co
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Figure 1-4 Real GDP Per Working-Age
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Figure 1-6 Change in Poverty Rate F
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Figure 1-7 Domestic Crude Oil Produ
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Figure 1-8 Growth in Real Per Capit
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Figure 1-9 Unemployment Rate by Dur
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e needed to make up for a decades-l
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Annual percent change 2.50 15-year
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Figure 1-14 Share of National Incom
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Along with steps that create jobs,
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corner, with purchases increasing d
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the four quarters of 2013, or enoug
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Percent of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -
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Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Figure 2-3
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In the euro area, the unemployment
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Figure 2-6 Cumulative Flows into Mu
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Figure 2-7 Household Deleveraging,
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Box 2-1: The 2013 Comprehensive Rev
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Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Figure 2
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Figure 2-11 State and Local Pension
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Percent of GDP 2 1 0 Figure 2-14 Cu
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Box 2-2. Administration Trade Polic
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Upon completion, the TPP and T-TIP
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percent of households report that i
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Figure 2-18 Petroleum Net Imports,
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Figure 2-21 U.S. Per Capita Consump
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Percent 11 Figure 2-22 Unemployment
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Figure 2-25 Predicted vs. Actual Ma
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Box 2-4: Unemployment Duration and
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The Long-Term Outlook The 11-Year F
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Growth in GDP over the Long Term As
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Box 2-5: Immigration Reform and Pot
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Even with this growth, however, the
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families. The other half was for in
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ecause of rapidly declining stock a
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Obama Administration and the 111th
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Figure 3-1 Recovery Act Programs by
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other cases, new measures expanded
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Figure 3-2 Recovery Act and Subsequ
Page 109 and 110: Box 3-1: Other Administration Polic
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Page 113 and 114: Table 3-5 Estimated Output Multipli
Page 115 and 116: Figure 3-7 Quarterly Effect of the
Page 117 and 118: Table 3-6 Estimates of the Effects
Page 119 and 120: International Comparison The 2008 c
Page 121 and 122: Box 3-2: The U.S. Recovery in Compa
Page 123 and 124: Table 3-7 Tax Relief and Income Sup
Page 125 and 126: traditionally been jointly financed
Page 127 and 128: downturn in the economy. Even thoug
Page 129 and 130: Figure 3-11 Recovery Act Cumulative
Page 131 and 132: The Recovery Act also invested in r
Page 133 and 134: helped individuals who chose to ret
Page 135 and 136: the period, even though total power
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Page 139 and 140: Alternative Minimum Tax relief, bus
Page 141 and 142: Through the end of a Individual Tax
Page 143 and 144: y Poterba (1994), states and locali
Page 145 and 146: Table 3-11 Fiscal Support for the E
Page 147 and 148: spells. Because the resulting unemp
Page 149 and 150: literature uses two different appro
Page 151 and 152: Table 3-12 Summary of Cross-Section
Page 153 and 154: the CMS projections show real per-c
Page 155 and 156: will accrue to workers as higher wa
Page 157 and 158: Box 4-1: Two Measures of Growth in
Page 159: Figure 4-1 Growth in Real Per Capit
Page 163 and 164: find that even those seniors who di
Page 165 and 166: the slowdown in real (that is, infl
Page 167 and 168: health care costs for an individual
Page 169 and 170: estimate for the ACA found that its
Page 171 and 172: Figure 4-4 Medicare 30-Day, All-Con
Page 173 and 174: agreements among the providers them
Page 175 and 176: payment for physician services, the
Page 177 and 178: Box 4-3: The Cost Slowdown and ACA
Page 179 and 180: 2010a; 2011; 2012c; 2013a; 2014), w
Page 181 and 182: Figure 4-6 Recent CBO Projections o
Page 183 and 184: Conclusion The evidence is clear th
Page 185 and 186: facilitated this private-sector tec
Page 187 and 188: esulting gap between the actual gro
Page 189 and 190: Table 5-1 Sources of Productivity I
Page 191 and 192: Table 5-2 Nonfarm Private Business
Page 193 and 194: of the productivity improvement res
Page 195 and 196: Figure 5-3 Growth in Productivity a
Page 197 and 198: improving and college completion ra
Page 199 and 200: Box 5-2: Does Inequality Affect Pro
Page 201 and 202: Percent 3.5 Figure 5-5 Composition
Page 203 and 204: • Just two of the largest U.S. te
Page 205 and 206: Box 5-3: Just-in-Time Manufacturing
Page 207 and 208: Figure 5-7 Exclusive and Shared All
Page 209 and 210: Box 5-4: Spectrum Investment Polici
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To stimulate investment in more adv
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Because current uses of technology
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Box 5-5: Electronic Health Records
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about the array of services and sup
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and, in such cases, provides partie
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Box 5-6: The Leahy-Smith America In
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Box 5-7: Pay-For-Delay Settlements
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C H A P T E R 6 THE WAR ON POVERTY
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Measuring Poverty: Who is Poor in A
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thresholds ever since. These dollar
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of necessary items, including food,
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Table 6-1 Poverty Rates by Selected
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Box 6-3: Women and Poverty While wo
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However, this reflects smaller decl
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Percent 25 Figure 6-1 Trends in the
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Box 6-4: Social Programs Serve All
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of low- and middle-income workers a
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particularly valuable since they es
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Figure 6-4 Official vs Anchored Sup
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deep market poverty driven by the b
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work: in 2010, for example, unemplo
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out of poverty through job training
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e noted that researchers have found
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2012). Among the children of low-ea
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Education appears to be one of the
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Friedman, and Rockoff (2011) find t
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including an additional $25 a week
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Figure 6-11 Recovery Act and Subseq
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Empowering Every Child with a Quali
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modernize America’s high schools
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low-income Americans and their chil
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C H A P T E R 7 EVALUATION AS A TOO
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program evaluation efforts. For exa
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went to preschool would have had if
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y adopting successful interventions
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Box 7-2: Using Behavioral Economics
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Box 7-3: “Rapid Cycle” Evaluati
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Figure 7-1 Outlays for Grants to St
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performance data, fewer than half o
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Investment Act programs. The PROMIS
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Figure 7-2 Inventory of Beds for Ho
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example, included a nondiscretionar
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Other benefits of considering evalu
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with the treatment effect and thus
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unemployment insurance wage and ben
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hard for researchers to access for
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REFERENCES Chapter 1 Almunia, Migue
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____. 2014. “Press Release: Janua
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and the TPP at the Peterson Institu
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Increase Employment Evidence from t
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___. 2010b. “The Economic Impact
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___. 2012. World Economic Outlook A
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Polak Annual Research Conference. W
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Baicker, Katherine and Amitabh Chan
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Daly, Mary, Bart Hobijn, and Brian
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Nominal Wages,” International Jou
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Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Revie
Page 326 and 327:
Chien, Colleen V. 2012. “Reformin
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GAO (Government Accountability Offi
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Jorgenson, Dale. 2001. “Informati
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Integration in Economic Development
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_____. 2007. “Improving the Safet
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Dahl, Gordon B. and Lance Lochner.
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Heckman, James J. and Dimitriy V. M
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Ludwig, Jens and Douglas Miller. 20
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Sharkey, Patrick. 2009. “Neighbor
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_____. 2013. “Practical Evaluatio
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www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/comm
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Stock, James H., and Mark Watson. 2
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letter of transmittal Council of Ec
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Council Members and Their Dates of
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The Members of the Council Betsey S
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Act has had on reducing health care
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Statistical Office The Statistical
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A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
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INTEREST RATES, MONEY STOCK, AND GO
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2013-to-2014 TABLE NUMBER MATCH 201
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Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
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Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
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Table B-3. Quantity and price index
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Table B-5. Real exports and imports
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Year Total 2 Table B-7. Real farm i
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Table B-9. Median money income (in
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Year or month Civilian noninstituti
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Year or month All civilian workers
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Table B-15. Hours and earnings in p
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Year and month Interest Rates, Mone
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Year and month Table B-18. Money st
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Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-22. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-24. State and local governm
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End of month Table B-26. Estimated
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B-7. Chain-type price indexes for g
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B-28. National income by type of in
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B-48. Employment cost index, privat
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B-65. Producer price indexes by sta
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B-81. Federal receipts, outlays, su
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B-99. Farm output and productivity
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B-111. International reserves Inter
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