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Figure 1-9 Unemployment Rate by Duration, 1994–2014 Percent of labor force 8 7 6 5 4 2001–2007 average Unemployed for 26 Weeks or Less Jan-2014 3 2 1 2001–2007 average Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Note: Dotted lines represent average during the December 2001 to December 2007 expansion period as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Shading denotes recession. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey; CEA calculations. from 2001 to 2007), but the long-term unemployment rate is more than twice what it was during the pre-crisis years (2.3 percent in January 2014 compared with 1.0 percent on average from 2001 to 2007). Reducing longterm unemployment presents a major challenge because these individuals may face stigmatization from employers or experience skill deterioration. Even as the economy continues to add jobs, it will also be important to see a concurrent recovery in the volume of job-to-job mobility. The flow of workers across firms plays a critical role in the economy because job mobility enables rising productivity and wages as individuals switch to jobs for which they are better suited. However, in recent months there have been fewer than 9 million combined hires and separations a month, compared with more than 10 million a month on average from 2005 to 2007. The rate of voluntary separations—a measure of workers’ confidence in labor market conditions—also remains below pre-recession levels. As the unemployment rate trends down and worker mobility picks up, real wages should grow more quickly; but currently, the sluggish real wage growth seen in recent years represents another serious outstanding challenge in the labor market. Real wage growth remained positive for most of 2013, a key sign of the progress being made (Figure 1-10). However, as discussed in greater depth below, substantially faster real wage increases will Promoting Opportunity and Shared, Sustainable Growth | 35
Figure 1-10 Growth in Real Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Workers, 2007–2014 12-month percent change 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 Jan-2014 -4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Note: Shading denotes recession. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Real Earnings. 2012 dollars 70,000 Figure 1-11 Real Median Family Income, 1980–2012 68,000 66,000 64,000 62,000 60,000 2012 58,000 56,000 54,000 52,000 50,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Note: Shading denotes recession. Source: Census Bureau, Historical Income Data. 36 | Chapter 1
Page 1 and 2: ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
Page 4: C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
Page 8 and 9: economic report of the president To
Page 10 and 11: year-old. In the meantime, I’m go
Page 12: the annual report of the council of
Page 16 and 17: C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1. PROMOTIN
Page 18 and 19: APPENDIX 1: COMPONENTS OF THE RECOV
Page 20 and 21: THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S RECORD
Page 22 and 23: 2.15. Housing Starts, 1960-2013....
Page 24 and 25: 3.1. Forecasted and Actual Real GDP
Page 26 and 27: C H A P T E R 1 PROMOTING OPPORTUNI
Page 28 and 29: Opportunity, Growth, and Security i
Page 30 and 31: crisis—continue to rebound and co
Page 32 and 33: Figure 1-4 Real GDP Per Working-Age
Page 34 and 35: Figure 1-6 Change in Poverty Rate F
Page 36 and 37: Figure 1-7 Domestic Crude Oil Produ
Page 38 and 39: Figure 1-8 Growth in Real Per Capit
Page 42 and 43: e needed to make up for a decades-l
Page 44 and 45: Annual percent change 2.50 15-year
Page 46 and 47: Figure 1-14 Share of National Incom
Page 48: Along with steps that create jobs,
Page 51 and 52: corner, with purchases increasing d
Page 53 and 54: the four quarters of 2013, or enoug
Page 55 and 56: Percent of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -
Page 57 and 58: Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Figure 2-3
Page 59 and 60: In the euro area, the unemployment
Page 61 and 62: Figure 2-6 Cumulative Flows into Mu
Page 63 and 64: Figure 2-7 Household Deleveraging,
Page 65 and 66: Box 2-1: The 2013 Comprehensive Rev
Page 67 and 68: Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Figure 2
Page 69 and 70: Figure 2-11 State and Local Pension
Page 71 and 72: Percent of GDP 2 1 0 Figure 2-14 Cu
Page 73 and 74: Box 2-2. Administration Trade Polic
Page 75 and 76: Upon completion, the TPP and T-TIP
Page 77 and 78: percent of households report that i
Page 79 and 80: Figure 2-18 Petroleum Net Imports,
Page 81 and 82: Figure 2-21 U.S. Per Capita Consump
Page 83 and 84: Percent 11 Figure 2-22 Unemployment
Page 85 and 86: Figure 2-25 Predicted vs. Actual Ma
Page 87 and 88: Box 2-4: Unemployment Duration and
Page 89 and 90: The Long-Term Outlook The 11-Year F
Page 91 and 92:
Growth in GDP over the Long Term As
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Box 2-5: Immigration Reform and Pot
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Even with this growth, however, the
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families. The other half was for in
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ecause of rapidly declining stock a
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Obama Administration and the 111th
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Figure 3-1 Recovery Act Programs by
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other cases, new measures expanded
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Figure 3-2 Recovery Act and Subsequ
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Box 3-1: Other Administration Polic
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challenges, and how economists have
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Table 3-5 Estimated Output Multipli
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Figure 3-7 Quarterly Effect of the
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Table 3-6 Estimates of the Effects
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International Comparison The 2008 c
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Box 3-2: The U.S. Recovery in Compa
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Table 3-7 Tax Relief and Income Sup
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traditionally been jointly financed
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downturn in the economy. Even thoug
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Figure 3-11 Recovery Act Cumulative
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The Recovery Act also invested in r
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helped individuals who chose to ret
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the period, even though total power
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average—then the resulting increa
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Alternative Minimum Tax relief, bus
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Through the end of a Individual Tax
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y Poterba (1994), states and locali
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Table 3-11 Fiscal Support for the E
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spells. Because the resulting unemp
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literature uses two different appro
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Table 3-12 Summary of Cross-Section
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the CMS projections show real per-c
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will accrue to workers as higher wa
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Box 4-1: Two Measures of Growth in
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Figure 4-1 Growth in Real Per Capit
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in particular may not exactly track
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find that even those seniors who di
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the slowdown in real (that is, infl
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health care costs for an individual
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estimate for the ACA found that its
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Figure 4-4 Medicare 30-Day, All-Con
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agreements among the providers them
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payment for physician services, the
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Box 4-3: The Cost Slowdown and ACA
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2010a; 2011; 2012c; 2013a; 2014), w
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Figure 4-6 Recent CBO Projections o
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Conclusion The evidence is clear th
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facilitated this private-sector tec
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esulting gap between the actual gro
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Table 5-1 Sources of Productivity I
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Table 5-2 Nonfarm Private Business
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of the productivity improvement res
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Figure 5-3 Growth in Productivity a
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improving and college completion ra
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Box 5-2: Does Inequality Affect Pro
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Percent 3.5 Figure 5-5 Composition
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• Just two of the largest U.S. te
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Box 5-3: Just-in-Time Manufacturing
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Figure 5-7 Exclusive and Shared All
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Box 5-4: Spectrum Investment Polici
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To stimulate investment in more adv
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Because current uses of technology
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Box 5-5: Electronic Health Records
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about the array of services and sup
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and, in such cases, provides partie
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Box 5-6: The Leahy-Smith America In
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Box 5-7: Pay-For-Delay Settlements
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C H A P T E R 6 THE WAR ON POVERTY
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Measuring Poverty: Who is Poor in A
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thresholds ever since. These dollar
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of necessary items, including food,
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Table 6-1 Poverty Rates by Selected
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Box 6-3: Women and Poverty While wo
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However, this reflects smaller decl
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Percent 25 Figure 6-1 Trends in the
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Box 6-4: Social Programs Serve All
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of low- and middle-income workers a
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particularly valuable since they es
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Figure 6-4 Official vs Anchored Sup
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deep market poverty driven by the b
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work: in 2010, for example, unemplo
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out of poverty through job training
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e noted that researchers have found
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2012). Among the children of low-ea
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Education appears to be one of the
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Friedman, and Rockoff (2011) find t
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including an additional $25 a week
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Figure 6-11 Recovery Act and Subseq
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Empowering Every Child with a Quali
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modernize America’s high schools
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low-income Americans and their chil
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C H A P T E R 7 EVALUATION AS A TOO
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program evaluation efforts. For exa
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went to preschool would have had if
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y adopting successful interventions
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Box 7-2: Using Behavioral Economics
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Box 7-3: “Rapid Cycle” Evaluati
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Figure 7-1 Outlays for Grants to St
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performance data, fewer than half o
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Investment Act programs. The PROMIS
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Figure 7-2 Inventory of Beds for Ho
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example, included a nondiscretionar
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Other benefits of considering evalu
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with the treatment effect and thus
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unemployment insurance wage and ben
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hard for researchers to access for
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REFERENCES Chapter 1 Almunia, Migue
Page 306 and 307:
____. 2014. “Press Release: Janua
Page 308 and 309:
and the TPP at the Peterson Institu
Page 310 and 311:
Increase Employment Evidence from t
Page 312 and 313:
___. 2010b. “The Economic Impact
Page 314 and 315:
___. 2012. World Economic Outlook A
Page 316 and 317:
Polak Annual Research Conference. W
Page 318 and 319:
Baicker, Katherine and Amitabh Chan
Page 320 and 321:
Daly, Mary, Bart Hobijn, and Brian
Page 322 and 323:
Nominal Wages,” International Jou
Page 324 and 325:
Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Revie
Page 326 and 327:
Chien, Colleen V. 2012. “Reformin
Page 328 and 329:
GAO (Government Accountability Offi
Page 330 and 331:
Jorgenson, Dale. 2001. “Informati
Page 332 and 333:
Integration in Economic Development
Page 334 and 335:
_____. 2007. “Improving the Safet
Page 336 and 337:
Dahl, Gordon B. and Lance Lochner.
Page 338 and 339:
Heckman, James J. and Dimitriy V. M
Page 340 and 341:
Ludwig, Jens and Douglas Miller. 20
Page 342 and 343:
Sharkey, Patrick. 2009. “Neighbor
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_____. 2013. “Practical Evaluatio
Page 346 and 347:
www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/comm
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Stock, James H., and Mark Watson. 2
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letter of transmittal Council of Ec
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Council Members and Their Dates of
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The Members of the Council Betsey S
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Act has had on reducing health care
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Statistical Office The Statistical
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A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
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INTEREST RATES, MONEY STOCK, AND GO
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2013-to-2014 TABLE NUMBER MATCH 201
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Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
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Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
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Table B-3. Quantity and price index
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Table B-5. Real exports and imports
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Year Total 2 Table B-7. Real farm i
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Table B-9. Median money income (in
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Year or month Civilian noninstituti
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Year or month All civilian workers
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Table B-15. Hours and earnings in p
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Year and month Interest Rates, Mone
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Year and month Table B-18. Money st
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Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-22. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-24. State and local governm
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End of month Table B-26. Estimated
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B-7. Chain-type price indexes for g
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B-28. National income by type of in
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B-48. Employment cost index, privat
Page 409 and 410:
B-65. Producer price indexes by sta
Page 411 and 412:
B-81. Federal receipts, outlays, su
Page 413 and 414:
B-99. Farm output and productivity
Page 415:
B-111. International reserves Inter
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