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Percent 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Figure 3-5 Estimates of the Effects of the Recovery Act on the Level of GDP, 2009‒2013 CBO: High CEA Model CBO: Low 2013:Q3 0.0 2009:Q2 2010:Q2 2011:Q2 2012:Q2 2013:Q2 Source: Congressional Budget Office, Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output in 2013; CEA calculations. Millions 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Figure 3-6 Estimates of the Effects of the Recovery Act on Employment, 2009‒2013 CBO: High CEA Model CBO: Low 2013:Q3 0.0 2009:Q2 2010:Q2 2011:Q2 2012:Q2 2013:Q2 Source: Congressional Budget Office, Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output in 2013; CEA calculations. The Economic Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Five Years Later | 109
Figure 3-7 Quarterly Effect of the Recovery Act and Subsequent Fiscal Measures on GDP, 2009–2012 Percent of GDP 3.5 2012:Q4 3.0 2.5 2.0 ARRA Other Fiscal Measures 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2009:Q2 2010:Q2 2011:Q2 2012:Q2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts; Congressional Budget Office; CEA calculations. Millions 3.5 3.0 Figure 3-8 Quarterly Effect of the Recovery Act and Subsequent Fiscal Measures on Employment, 2009–2012 Other Fiscal Measures 2012:Q4 2.5 2.0 ARRA 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2009:Q2 2010:Q2 2011:Q2 2012:Q2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts; Congressional Budget Office; CEA calculations. 110 | Chapter 3
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
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C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
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economic report of the president To
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year-old. In the meantime, I’m go
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the annual report of the council of
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C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1. PROMOTIN
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APPENDIX 1: COMPONENTS OF THE RECOV
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THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S RECORD
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2.15. Housing Starts, 1960-2013....
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3.1. Forecasted and Actual Real GDP
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C H A P T E R 1 PROMOTING OPPORTUNI
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Opportunity, Growth, and Security i
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crisis—continue to rebound and co
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Figure 1-4 Real GDP Per Working-Age
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Figure 1-6 Change in Poverty Rate F
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Figure 1-7 Domestic Crude Oil Produ
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Figure 1-8 Growth in Real Per Capit
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Figure 1-9 Unemployment Rate by Dur
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e needed to make up for a decades-l
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Annual percent change 2.50 15-year
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Figure 1-14 Share of National Incom
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Along with steps that create jobs,
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corner, with purchases increasing d
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the four quarters of 2013, or enoug
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Percent of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -
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Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Figure 2-3
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In the euro area, the unemployment
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Figure 2-6 Cumulative Flows into Mu
Page 63 and 64: Figure 2-7 Household Deleveraging,
Page 65 and 66: Box 2-1: The 2013 Comprehensive Rev
Page 67 and 68: Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Figure 2
Page 69 and 70: Figure 2-11 State and Local Pension
Page 71 and 72: Percent of GDP 2 1 0 Figure 2-14 Cu
Page 73 and 74: Box 2-2. Administration Trade Polic
Page 75 and 76: Upon completion, the TPP and T-TIP
Page 77 and 78: percent of households report that i
Page 79 and 80: Figure 2-18 Petroleum Net Imports,
Page 81 and 82: Figure 2-21 U.S. Per Capita Consump
Page 83 and 84: Percent 11 Figure 2-22 Unemployment
Page 85 and 86: Figure 2-25 Predicted vs. Actual Ma
Page 87 and 88: Box 2-4: Unemployment Duration and
Page 89 and 90: The Long-Term Outlook The 11-Year F
Page 91 and 92: Growth in GDP over the Long Term As
Page 93 and 94: Box 2-5: Immigration Reform and Pot
Page 95 and 96: Even with this growth, however, the
Page 97 and 98: families. The other half was for in
Page 99 and 100: ecause of rapidly declining stock a
Page 101 and 102: Obama Administration and the 111th
Page 103 and 104: Figure 3-1 Recovery Act Programs by
Page 105 and 106: other cases, new measures expanded
Page 107 and 108: Figure 3-2 Recovery Act and Subsequ
Page 109 and 110: Box 3-1: Other Administration Polic
Page 111 and 112: challenges, and how economists have
Page 113: Table 3-5 Estimated Output Multipli
Page 117 and 118: Table 3-6 Estimates of the Effects
Page 119 and 120: International Comparison The 2008 c
Page 121 and 122: Box 3-2: The U.S. Recovery in Compa
Page 123 and 124: Table 3-7 Tax Relief and Income Sup
Page 125 and 126: traditionally been jointly financed
Page 127 and 128: downturn in the economy. Even thoug
Page 129 and 130: Figure 3-11 Recovery Act Cumulative
Page 131 and 132: The Recovery Act also invested in r
Page 133 and 134: helped individuals who chose to ret
Page 135 and 136: the period, even though total power
Page 137 and 138: average—then the resulting increa
Page 139 and 140: Alternative Minimum Tax relief, bus
Page 141 and 142: Through the end of a Individual Tax
Page 143 and 144: y Poterba (1994), states and locali
Page 145 and 146: Table 3-11 Fiscal Support for the E
Page 147 and 148: spells. Because the resulting unemp
Page 149 and 150: literature uses two different appro
Page 151 and 152: Table 3-12 Summary of Cross-Section
Page 153 and 154: the CMS projections show real per-c
Page 155 and 156: will accrue to workers as higher wa
Page 157 and 158: Box 4-1: Two Measures of Growth in
Page 159 and 160: Figure 4-1 Growth in Real Per Capit
Page 161 and 162: in particular may not exactly track
Page 163 and 164: find that even those seniors who di
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the slowdown in real (that is, infl
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health care costs for an individual
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estimate for the ACA found that its
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Figure 4-4 Medicare 30-Day, All-Con
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agreements among the providers them
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payment for physician services, the
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Box 4-3: The Cost Slowdown and ACA
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2010a; 2011; 2012c; 2013a; 2014), w
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Figure 4-6 Recent CBO Projections o
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Conclusion The evidence is clear th
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facilitated this private-sector tec
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esulting gap between the actual gro
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Table 5-1 Sources of Productivity I
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Table 5-2 Nonfarm Private Business
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of the productivity improvement res
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Figure 5-3 Growth in Productivity a
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improving and college completion ra
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Box 5-2: Does Inequality Affect Pro
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Percent 3.5 Figure 5-5 Composition
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• Just two of the largest U.S. te
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Box 5-3: Just-in-Time Manufacturing
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Figure 5-7 Exclusive and Shared All
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Box 5-4: Spectrum Investment Polici
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To stimulate investment in more adv
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Because current uses of technology
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Box 5-5: Electronic Health Records
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about the array of services and sup
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and, in such cases, provides partie
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Box 5-6: The Leahy-Smith America In
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Box 5-7: Pay-For-Delay Settlements
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C H A P T E R 6 THE WAR ON POVERTY
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Measuring Poverty: Who is Poor in A
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thresholds ever since. These dollar
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of necessary items, including food,
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Table 6-1 Poverty Rates by Selected
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Box 6-3: Women and Poverty While wo
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However, this reflects smaller decl
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Percent 25 Figure 6-1 Trends in the
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Box 6-4: Social Programs Serve All
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of low- and middle-income workers a
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particularly valuable since they es
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Figure 6-4 Official vs Anchored Sup
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deep market poverty driven by the b
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work: in 2010, for example, unemplo
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out of poverty through job training
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e noted that researchers have found
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2012). Among the children of low-ea
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Education appears to be one of the
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Friedman, and Rockoff (2011) find t
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including an additional $25 a week
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Figure 6-11 Recovery Act and Subseq
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Empowering Every Child with a Quali
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modernize America’s high schools
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low-income Americans and their chil
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C H A P T E R 7 EVALUATION AS A TOO
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program evaluation efforts. For exa
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went to preschool would have had if
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y adopting successful interventions
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Box 7-2: Using Behavioral Economics
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Box 7-3: “Rapid Cycle” Evaluati
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Figure 7-1 Outlays for Grants to St
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performance data, fewer than half o
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Investment Act programs. The PROMIS
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Figure 7-2 Inventory of Beds for Ho
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example, included a nondiscretionar
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Other benefits of considering evalu
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with the treatment effect and thus
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unemployment insurance wage and ben
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hard for researchers to access for
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REFERENCES Chapter 1 Almunia, Migue
Page 306 and 307:
____. 2014. “Press Release: Janua
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and the TPP at the Peterson Institu
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Increase Employment Evidence from t
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___. 2010b. “The Economic Impact
Page 314 and 315:
___. 2012. World Economic Outlook A
Page 316 and 317:
Polak Annual Research Conference. W
Page 318 and 319:
Baicker, Katherine and Amitabh Chan
Page 320 and 321:
Daly, Mary, Bart Hobijn, and Brian
Page 322 and 323:
Nominal Wages,” International Jou
Page 324 and 325:
Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Revie
Page 326 and 327:
Chien, Colleen V. 2012. “Reformin
Page 328 and 329:
GAO (Government Accountability Offi
Page 330 and 331:
Jorgenson, Dale. 2001. “Informati
Page 332 and 333:
Integration in Economic Development
Page 334 and 335:
_____. 2007. “Improving the Safet
Page 336 and 337:
Dahl, Gordon B. and Lance Lochner.
Page 338 and 339:
Heckman, James J. and Dimitriy V. M
Page 340 and 341:
Ludwig, Jens and Douglas Miller. 20
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Sharkey, Patrick. 2009. “Neighbor
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_____. 2013. “Practical Evaluatio
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www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/comm
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Stock, James H., and Mark Watson. 2
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letter of transmittal Council of Ec
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Council Members and Their Dates of
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The Members of the Council Betsey S
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Act has had on reducing health care
Page 361 and 362:
Statistical Office The Statistical
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A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
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INTEREST RATES, MONEY STOCK, AND GO
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2013-to-2014 TABLE NUMBER MATCH 201
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Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
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Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
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Table B-3. Quantity and price index
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Table B-5. Real exports and imports
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Year Total 2 Table B-7. Real farm i
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Table B-9. Median money income (in
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Year or month Civilian noninstituti
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Year or month All civilian workers
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Table B-15. Hours and earnings in p
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Year and month Interest Rates, Mone
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Year and month Table B-18. Money st
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Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-22. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-24. State and local governm
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End of month Table B-26. Estimated
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B-7. Chain-type price indexes for g
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B-28. National income by type of in
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B-48. Employment cost index, privat
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B-65. Producer price indexes by sta
Page 411 and 412:
B-81. Federal receipts, outlays, su
Page 413 and 414:
B-99. Farm output and productivity
Page 415:
B-111. International reserves Inter
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