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y enabling greater competition, particularly in local and long-distance telephone service, and by rationalizing, and making explicit, the subsidy system supporting service in high-cost areas. Substantial additional private investment followed. In recent years, the U.S. Government has further facilitated private telecommunications investment through favorable tax policy. In 2010, the President proposed and signed into law the largest temporary investment incentive in history—100-percent expensing—that, together with the bonus depreciation that preceded and followed it, played a critical role in increasing and accelerating investment, including the substantial increases in both wired and wireless investment in the telecommunications sector. For example, two major companies in a joint statement said that, “despite the downturn in the economy, the cable communications sector has been able to continue steady investment and to retain jobs as a result of policies like 100-percent expensing.” Catalyzing investment in mobile broadband infrastructure is especially important given the rapidly growing usage and the scarcity of electromagnetic spectrum for carrying wireless broadband traffic. In 2010, Federal Communication Commission experts predicted that the needs for broadband capacity will overwhelm available spectrum (the “spectrum crunch”). If allowed to happen, this would result in higher prices for mobile broadband services, as well as reduced growth in broadband-based innovation, services, and employment. The scarcity of broadband capacity can be alleviated through increased investment (denser transmission infrastructure means more traffic on a given spectrum frequency), fuller deployment of spectrum already licensed to wireless carriers, spectrum license consolidation, technological advancement, and improvements in spectrum policy. One important initiative is to seek to reallocate public spectrum when it has a more valuable private use. The Federal Government is a major user of spectrum, as Figure 5-7 shows. Most of this usage involves national security and law enforcement functions, as shown in Figure 5-8. Federal use of spectrum is valuable, but it is not costless. As an economic matter, if a particular spectrum band would produce a larger net social surplus in private hands than in public hands, then it should be reallocated, and vice-versa. That is, the Federal Government can alleviate spectrum scarcity by having government agencies vacate certain spectrum bands entirely, or share them with private users, when this can be achieved without compromising the agencies’ vital missions (which in many cases involve safety-of-life and national security) and when the associated costs of relocating government operations out of those bands are justified by the social value that will be unlocked as a result of the reallocation to the private sector. The vacated Fostering Productivity Growth | 201
Figure 5-7 Exclusive and Shared Allocation of Radio Spectrum Megahertz 1,600 1,434 1,400 1,200 1,000 1,058 800 600 629 400 359 200 0 Exclusive Federal Exclusive Private Dominant Federal (Shared) Source: National Telecommunications and Information Administration (2009). Shared spectrum could then be auctioned off to commercial users or, if appropriate, made widely available on an unlicensed basis (more on this below). The Federal user would be relocated to alternative spectrum that could be used more intensively and economically, particularly if additional resources were made available for investment in newer equipment. In addition to economizing on its aggregate spectrum usage, the government can further alleviate spectrum scarcity by rationalizing spectrum allocation. There are some spectrum bands that, above and beyond the properties that make them valuable in general (for example, strong propagation through buildings and in rural areas), are particularly valuable for commercial applications, such as if they are complementary to other commercial spectrum bands. In those cases, value can be unlocked by having the government relocate from those bands to other bands that do not have that property—again, under the condition that this can be done without compromising vital missions and that the relocation costs are not prohibitively high. Box 5-4 describes several spectrum investment policies that have been undertaken or proposed by the Administration. There is also substantial scope to reallocate some spectrum currently licensed to private entities to a more valuable use in wireless broadband. Some incumbent firms, such as over-the-air broadcast television stations, hold rights to spectrum that are much more valuable as wireless broadband 202 | Chapter 5
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
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C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
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economic report of the president To
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year-old. In the meantime, I’m go
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the annual report of the council of
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C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1. PROMOTIN
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APPENDIX 1: COMPONENTS OF THE RECOV
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THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S RECORD
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2.15. Housing Starts, 1960-2013....
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3.1. Forecasted and Actual Real GDP
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C H A P T E R 1 PROMOTING OPPORTUNI
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Opportunity, Growth, and Security i
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crisis—continue to rebound and co
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Figure 1-4 Real GDP Per Working-Age
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Figure 1-6 Change in Poverty Rate F
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Figure 1-7 Domestic Crude Oil Produ
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Figure 1-8 Growth in Real Per Capit
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Figure 1-9 Unemployment Rate by Dur
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e needed to make up for a decades-l
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Annual percent change 2.50 15-year
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Figure 1-14 Share of National Incom
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Along with steps that create jobs,
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corner, with purchases increasing d
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the four quarters of 2013, or enoug
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Percent of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -
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Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Figure 2-3
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In the euro area, the unemployment
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Figure 2-6 Cumulative Flows into Mu
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Figure 2-7 Household Deleveraging,
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Box 2-1: The 2013 Comprehensive Rev
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Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Figure 2
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Figure 2-11 State and Local Pension
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Percent of GDP 2 1 0 Figure 2-14 Cu
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Box 2-2. Administration Trade Polic
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Upon completion, the TPP and T-TIP
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percent of households report that i
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Figure 2-18 Petroleum Net Imports,
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Figure 2-21 U.S. Per Capita Consump
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Percent 11 Figure 2-22 Unemployment
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Figure 2-25 Predicted vs. Actual Ma
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Box 2-4: Unemployment Duration and
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The Long-Term Outlook The 11-Year F
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Growth in GDP over the Long Term As
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Box 2-5: Immigration Reform and Pot
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Even with this growth, however, the
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families. The other half was for in
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ecause of rapidly declining stock a
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Obama Administration and the 111th
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Figure 3-1 Recovery Act Programs by
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other cases, new measures expanded
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Figure 3-2 Recovery Act and Subsequ
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Box 3-1: Other Administration Polic
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challenges, and how economists have
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Table 3-5 Estimated Output Multipli
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Figure 3-7 Quarterly Effect of the
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Table 3-6 Estimates of the Effects
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International Comparison The 2008 c
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Box 3-2: The U.S. Recovery in Compa
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Table 3-7 Tax Relief and Income Sup
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traditionally been jointly financed
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downturn in the economy. Even thoug
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Figure 3-11 Recovery Act Cumulative
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The Recovery Act also invested in r
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helped individuals who chose to ret
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the period, even though total power
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average—then the resulting increa
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Alternative Minimum Tax relief, bus
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Through the end of a Individual Tax
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y Poterba (1994), states and locali
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Table 3-11 Fiscal Support for the E
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spells. Because the resulting unemp
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literature uses two different appro
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Table 3-12 Summary of Cross-Section
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the CMS projections show real per-c
Page 155 and 156: will accrue to workers as higher wa
Page 157 and 158: Box 4-1: Two Measures of Growth in
Page 159 and 160: Figure 4-1 Growth in Real Per Capit
Page 161 and 162: in particular may not exactly track
Page 163 and 164: find that even those seniors who di
Page 165 and 166: the slowdown in real (that is, infl
Page 167 and 168: health care costs for an individual
Page 169 and 170: estimate for the ACA found that its
Page 171 and 172: Figure 4-4 Medicare 30-Day, All-Con
Page 173 and 174: agreements among the providers them
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Page 177 and 178: Box 4-3: The Cost Slowdown and ACA
Page 179 and 180: 2010a; 2011; 2012c; 2013a; 2014), w
Page 181 and 182: Figure 4-6 Recent CBO Projections o
Page 183 and 184: Conclusion The evidence is clear th
Page 185 and 186: facilitated this private-sector tec
Page 187 and 188: esulting gap between the actual gro
Page 189 and 190: Table 5-1 Sources of Productivity I
Page 191 and 192: Table 5-2 Nonfarm Private Business
Page 193 and 194: of the productivity improvement res
Page 195 and 196: Figure 5-3 Growth in Productivity a
Page 197 and 198: improving and college completion ra
Page 199 and 200: Box 5-2: Does Inequality Affect Pro
Page 201 and 202: Percent 3.5 Figure 5-5 Composition
Page 203 and 204: • Just two of the largest U.S. te
Page 205: Box 5-3: Just-in-Time Manufacturing
Page 209 and 210: Box 5-4: Spectrum Investment Polici
Page 211 and 212: To stimulate investment in more adv
Page 213 and 214: Because current uses of technology
Page 215 and 216: Box 5-5: Electronic Health Records
Page 217 and 218: about the array of services and sup
Page 219 and 220: and, in such cases, provides partie
Page 221 and 222: Box 5-6: The Leahy-Smith America In
Page 223 and 224: Box 5-7: Pay-For-Delay Settlements
Page 226 and 227: C H A P T E R 6 THE WAR ON POVERTY
Page 228 and 229: Measuring Poverty: Who is Poor in A
Page 230 and 231: thresholds ever since. These dollar
Page 232 and 233: of necessary items, including food,
Page 234 and 235: Table 6-1 Poverty Rates by Selected
Page 236 and 237: Box 6-3: Women and Poverty While wo
Page 238 and 239: However, this reflects smaller decl
Page 240 and 241: Percent 25 Figure 6-1 Trends in the
Page 242 and 243: Box 6-4: Social Programs Serve All
Page 244 and 245: of low- and middle-income workers a
Page 246 and 247: particularly valuable since they es
Page 248 and 249: Figure 6-4 Official vs Anchored Sup
Page 250 and 251: deep market poverty driven by the b
Page 252 and 253: work: in 2010, for example, unemplo
Page 254 and 255: out of poverty through job training
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e noted that researchers have found
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2012). Among the children of low-ea
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Education appears to be one of the
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Friedman, and Rockoff (2011) find t
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including an additional $25 a week
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Figure 6-11 Recovery Act and Subseq
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Empowering Every Child with a Quali
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modernize America’s high schools
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low-income Americans and their chil
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C H A P T E R 7 EVALUATION AS A TOO
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program evaluation efforts. For exa
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went to preschool would have had if
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y adopting successful interventions
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Box 7-2: Using Behavioral Economics
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Box 7-3: “Rapid Cycle” Evaluati
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Figure 7-1 Outlays for Grants to St
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performance data, fewer than half o
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Investment Act programs. The PROMIS
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Figure 7-2 Inventory of Beds for Ho
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example, included a nondiscretionar
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Other benefits of considering evalu
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with the treatment effect and thus
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unemployment insurance wage and ben
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hard for researchers to access for
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REFERENCES Chapter 1 Almunia, Migue
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____. 2014. “Press Release: Janua
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and the TPP at the Peterson Institu
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Increase Employment Evidence from t
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___. 2010b. “The Economic Impact
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___. 2012. World Economic Outlook A
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Polak Annual Research Conference. W
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Baicker, Katherine and Amitabh Chan
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Daly, Mary, Bart Hobijn, and Brian
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Nominal Wages,” International Jou
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Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Revie
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Chien, Colleen V. 2012. “Reformin
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GAO (Government Accountability Offi
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Jorgenson, Dale. 2001. “Informati
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Integration in Economic Development
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_____. 2007. “Improving the Safet
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Dahl, Gordon B. and Lance Lochner.
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Heckman, James J. and Dimitriy V. M
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Ludwig, Jens and Douglas Miller. 20
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Sharkey, Patrick. 2009. “Neighbor
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_____. 2013. “Practical Evaluatio
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www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/comm
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Stock, James H., and Mark Watson. 2
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letter of transmittal Council of Ec
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Council Members and Their Dates of
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The Members of the Council Betsey S
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Act has had on reducing health care
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Statistical Office The Statistical
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A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
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INTEREST RATES, MONEY STOCK, AND GO
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2013-to-2014 TABLE NUMBER MATCH 201
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Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
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Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
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Table B-3. Quantity and price index
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Table B-5. Real exports and imports
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Year Total 2 Table B-7. Real farm i
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Table B-9. Median money income (in
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Year or month Civilian noninstituti
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Year or month All civilian workers
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Table B-15. Hours and earnings in p
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Year and month Interest Rates, Mone
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Year and month Table B-18. Money st
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Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-22. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-24. State and local governm
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End of month Table B-26. Estimated
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B-7. Chain-type price indexes for g
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B-28. National income by type of in
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B-48. Employment cost index, privat
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B-65. Producer price indexes by sta
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B-81. Federal receipts, outlays, su
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B-99. Farm output and productivity
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B-111. International reserves Inter
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