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Baicker, Katherine and Amitabh Chandra. 2006. “The Labor Market Effects of Rising Health Insurance Premiums.” Journal of Labor Economics 24, no. 3: 609-634. Chandra, Amitabh, Jonathan Holmes, and Jonathan Skinner. 2013. “Is This Time Different The Slowdown in Healthcare Spending.” Brookings Panel on Economic Activity. Washington: Brookings Institution. (http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Projects/BPEA/ Fall%202013/2013b%20chandra%20healthcare%20spending.pdf). Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Office of the Actuary. 2013. “Projections of National Health Expenditures: Methodology and Model Specification.” (CMS) Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. 2013a. “New Data Shows Affordable Care Act Reforms Are Leading to Lower Hospital Readmission Rates for Medicare Beneficiaries.” (http://blog.cms. gov/2013/12/06/new-data-shows-affordable-care-act-reforms-areleading-to-lower-hospital-readmission-rates-for-medicare-beneficiaries/). ______ .. 2013b. “Pioneer Accountable Care Organizations succeed in improving care, lowering costs.” News Release. (http://www.cms. gov/Newsroom/MediaReleaseDatabase/Press-Releases/2013-Press- Releases-Items/2013-07-16.html). ______ . 2013c. “The Affordable Care Act: A Stronger Medicare Program.” (http://www.cms.gov/apps/files/Medicarereport2012.pdf). Clemens, Jeffrey and Joshua D. Gottlieb. 2013. “Bargaining in the Shadow of a Giant: Medicare’s Influence on Private Payment Systems.” Working Paper 19503. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. (CBO) Congressional Budget Office. 2010a. “Cost Estimate of H.R. 4872, Reconciliation Act of 2010 (Final Health Care Legislation).” (http:// www.cbo.gov/publication/21351). ______. 2010b. “The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update.” (http:// www.cbo.gov/publication/21670). ______. 2011. “The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update.” (http:// www.cbo.gov/publication/41586). ______. 2012a. “Updated Budget Projections: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022.” (http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43119). References | 313
______. 2012b. “Letter to the Honorable John Boehner providing an estimate for H.R. 6079, the Repeal of Obamacare Act.” (http://www. cbo.gov/publication/43471). ______. 2012c. “Estimates for the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act Updated for the Recent Supreme Court Decision.” (http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ attachments/43472-07-24-2012-CoverageEstimates.pdf). ______. 2012d. “An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022.” (http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43539). ______. 2013a. “Updated Budget Projections: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023.” (http://www.cbo.gov/publication/44172). ______. 2013b. “The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook.” (http://www.cbo. gov/publication/44521). ______. 2013c. “Health-Related Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2014 to 2023.” (http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ attachments/44906-HealthOptions.pdf). ______. 2014. “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014 to 2024.” (http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010). (CEA) Council of Economic Advisers. 2009. “The Economic Case for Health Care Reform.” (http://www.whitehouse.gov/assets/documents/CEA_Health_Care_Report.pdf). ______. 2013. Economic Report of the President. (http://www.whitehouse.gov/ administration/eop/cea/economic-report-of-the-President/2013). Cuckler, Gigi A., et al. 2013. “National Health Expenditure Projections, 2012-22: Slow Growth Until Coverage Expands And Economy Improves.” Health Affairs 32 (September): 1-12. Cutler, David. 2004. Your Money or Your Life: Strong Medicine for America’s Health Care System. New York: Oxford University. Cutler, David and Neeraj Sood. 2010. “New Jobs Through Better Health Care: Health Care Reform Could Boost Employment by 250,000 to 400,000 a Year this Decade.” Washington: Center for American Progress. (http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/01/pdf/ health_care_jobs.pdf). Cutler, David and Nikhil R. Sahni. 2013. “If Slow Rate of Health Care Spending Growth Persists, Projections May Be Off by $770 Billion.” Health Affairs 32 (September): 841-850. 314 | References
Page 1 and 2:
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
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C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
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economic report of the president To
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year-old. In the meantime, I’m go
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the annual report of the council of
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C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1. PROMOTIN
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APPENDIX 1: COMPONENTS OF THE RECOV
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THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S RECORD
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2.15. Housing Starts, 1960-2013....
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3.1. Forecasted and Actual Real GDP
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C H A P T E R 1 PROMOTING OPPORTUNI
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Opportunity, Growth, and Security i
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crisis—continue to rebound and co
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Figure 1-4 Real GDP Per Working-Age
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Figure 1-6 Change in Poverty Rate F
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Figure 1-7 Domestic Crude Oil Produ
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Figure 1-8 Growth in Real Per Capit
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Figure 1-9 Unemployment Rate by Dur
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e needed to make up for a decades-l
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Annual percent change 2.50 15-year
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Figure 1-14 Share of National Incom
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Along with steps that create jobs,
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corner, with purchases increasing d
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the four quarters of 2013, or enoug
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Percent of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -
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Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Figure 2-3
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In the euro area, the unemployment
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Figure 2-6 Cumulative Flows into Mu
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Figure 2-7 Household Deleveraging,
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Box 2-1: The 2013 Comprehensive Rev
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Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Figure 2
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Figure 2-11 State and Local Pension
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Percent of GDP 2 1 0 Figure 2-14 Cu
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Box 2-2. Administration Trade Polic
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Upon completion, the TPP and T-TIP
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percent of households report that i
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Figure 2-18 Petroleum Net Imports,
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Figure 2-21 U.S. Per Capita Consump
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Percent 11 Figure 2-22 Unemployment
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Figure 2-25 Predicted vs. Actual Ma
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Box 2-4: Unemployment Duration and
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The Long-Term Outlook The 11-Year F
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Growth in GDP over the Long Term As
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Box 2-5: Immigration Reform and Pot
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Even with this growth, however, the
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families. The other half was for in
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ecause of rapidly declining stock a
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Obama Administration and the 111th
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Figure 3-1 Recovery Act Programs by
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other cases, new measures expanded
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Figure 3-2 Recovery Act and Subsequ
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Box 3-1: Other Administration Polic
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challenges, and how economists have
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Table 3-5 Estimated Output Multipli
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Figure 3-7 Quarterly Effect of the
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Table 3-6 Estimates of the Effects
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International Comparison The 2008 c
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Box 3-2: The U.S. Recovery in Compa
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Table 3-7 Tax Relief and Income Sup
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traditionally been jointly financed
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downturn in the economy. Even thoug
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Figure 3-11 Recovery Act Cumulative
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The Recovery Act also invested in r
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helped individuals who chose to ret
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the period, even though total power
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average—then the resulting increa
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Alternative Minimum Tax relief, bus
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Through the end of a Individual Tax
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y Poterba (1994), states and locali
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Table 3-11 Fiscal Support for the E
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spells. Because the resulting unemp
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literature uses two different appro
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Table 3-12 Summary of Cross-Section
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the CMS projections show real per-c
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will accrue to workers as higher wa
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Box 4-1: Two Measures of Growth in
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Figure 4-1 Growth in Real Per Capit
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in particular may not exactly track
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find that even those seniors who di
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the slowdown in real (that is, infl
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health care costs for an individual
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estimate for the ACA found that its
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Figure 4-4 Medicare 30-Day, All-Con
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agreements among the providers them
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payment for physician services, the
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Box 4-3: The Cost Slowdown and ACA
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2010a; 2011; 2012c; 2013a; 2014), w
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Figure 4-6 Recent CBO Projections o
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Conclusion The evidence is clear th
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facilitated this private-sector tec
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esulting gap between the actual gro
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Table 5-1 Sources of Productivity I
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Table 5-2 Nonfarm Private Business
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of the productivity improvement res
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Figure 5-3 Growth in Productivity a
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improving and college completion ra
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Box 5-2: Does Inequality Affect Pro
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Percent 3.5 Figure 5-5 Composition
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• Just two of the largest U.S. te
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Box 5-3: Just-in-Time Manufacturing
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Figure 5-7 Exclusive and Shared All
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Box 5-4: Spectrum Investment Polici
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To stimulate investment in more adv
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Because current uses of technology
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Box 5-5: Electronic Health Records
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about the array of services and sup
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and, in such cases, provides partie
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Box 5-6: The Leahy-Smith America In
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Box 5-7: Pay-For-Delay Settlements
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C H A P T E R 6 THE WAR ON POVERTY
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Measuring Poverty: Who is Poor in A
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thresholds ever since. These dollar
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of necessary items, including food,
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Table 6-1 Poverty Rates by Selected
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Box 6-3: Women and Poverty While wo
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However, this reflects smaller decl
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Percent 25 Figure 6-1 Trends in the
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Box 6-4: Social Programs Serve All
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of low- and middle-income workers a
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particularly valuable since they es
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Figure 6-4 Official vs Anchored Sup
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deep market poverty driven by the b
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work: in 2010, for example, unemplo
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out of poverty through job training
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e noted that researchers have found
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2012). Among the children of low-ea
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Education appears to be one of the
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Friedman, and Rockoff (2011) find t
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including an additional $25 a week
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Figure 6-11 Recovery Act and Subseq
Page 268 and 269: Empowering Every Child with a Quali
Page 270 and 271: modernize America’s high schools
Page 272 and 273: low-income Americans and their chil
Page 274 and 275: C H A P T E R 7 EVALUATION AS A TOO
Page 276 and 277: program evaluation efforts. For exa
Page 278 and 279: went to preschool would have had if
Page 280 and 281: y adopting successful interventions
Page 282 and 283: Box 7-2: Using Behavioral Economics
Page 284 and 285: Box 7-3: “Rapid Cycle” Evaluati
Page 286 and 287: Figure 7-1 Outlays for Grants to St
Page 288 and 289: performance data, fewer than half o
Page 290 and 291: Investment Act programs. The PROMIS
Page 292 and 293: Figure 7-2 Inventory of Beds for Ho
Page 294 and 295: example, included a nondiscretionar
Page 296 and 297: Other benefits of considering evalu
Page 298 and 299: with the treatment effect and thus
Page 300 and 301: unemployment insurance wage and ben
Page 302 and 303: hard for researchers to access for
Page 304 and 305: REFERENCES Chapter 1 Almunia, Migue
Page 306 and 307: ____. 2014. “Press Release: Janua
Page 308 and 309: and the TPP at the Peterson Institu
Page 310 and 311: Increase Employment Evidence from t
Page 312 and 313: ___. 2010b. “The Economic Impact
Page 314 and 315: ___. 2012. World Economic Outlook A
Page 316 and 317: Polak Annual Research Conference. W
Page 320 and 321: Daly, Mary, Bart Hobijn, and Brian
Page 322 and 323: Nominal Wages,” International Jou
Page 324 and 325: Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Revie
Page 326 and 327: Chien, Colleen V. 2012. “Reformin
Page 328 and 329: GAO (Government Accountability Offi
Page 330 and 331: Jorgenson, Dale. 2001. “Informati
Page 332 and 333: Integration in Economic Development
Page 334 and 335: _____. 2007. “Improving the Safet
Page 336 and 337: Dahl, Gordon B. and Lance Lochner.
Page 338 and 339: Heckman, James J. and Dimitriy V. M
Page 340 and 341: Ludwig, Jens and Douglas Miller. 20
Page 342 and 343: Sharkey, Patrick. 2009. “Neighbor
Page 344 and 345: _____. 2013. “Practical Evaluatio
Page 346 and 347: www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/comm
Page 348: Stock, James H., and Mark Watson. 2
Page 352 and 353: letter of transmittal Council of Ec
Page 354: Council Members and Their Dates of
Page 357 and 358: The Members of the Council Betsey S
Page 359 and 360: Act has had on reducing health care
Page 361 and 362: Statistical Office The Statistical
Page 364: A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
Page 367 and 368: INTEREST RATES, MONEY STOCK, AND GO
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2013-to-2014 TABLE NUMBER MATCH 201
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Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
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Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
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Table B-3. Quantity and price index
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Table B-5. Real exports and imports
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Year Total 2 Table B-7. Real farm i
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Table B-9. Median money income (in
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Year or month Civilian noninstituti
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Year or month All civilian workers
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Table B-15. Hours and earnings in p
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Year and month Interest Rates, Mone
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Year and month Table B-18. Money st
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Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-22. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-24. State and local governm
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End of month Table B-26. Estimated
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B-7. Chain-type price indexes for g
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B-28. National income by type of in
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B-48. Employment cost index, privat
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B-65. Producer price indexes by sta
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B-81. Federal receipts, outlays, su
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B-99. Farm output and productivity
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B-111. International reserves Inter
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