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Figure 1-14 Share of National Income Earned by Top 1 Percent, 1915–2012 Percent 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Note: Excludes capital gains. Source: September 2013 update to Piketty and Saez (2003). 2012 Figure 1-15 Growth in Productivity and Average Wage, 1947–2013 Index, 1947=100 (log scale) 500 400 2013 300 Real Output Per Hour 200 Real Average Wage (output deflator) 100 Real Average Wage (CPI deflator) 75 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Note: Real output per hour is for all workers in the nonfarm business sector. Average wage is for private production and nonsupervisory workers. Output deflator is the price index for nonfarm business output. CPI deflator is the CPI-W. Data on wages before 1964 reflect SIC-based industry classifications. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Productivity and Costs, Current Employment Statistics; CEA calculations. Promoting Opportunity and Shared, Sustainable Growth | 41
the decline in union membership. As shown earlier, in 2012, the median U.S. family’s inflation-adjusted income was less than it was in 1997. In contrast, separate data derived from administrative tax records show that the top 1 percent of tax units—who earned an average of more than $1 million in 2012—received 19.3 percent of total income (excluding income from capital gains, which can be highly volatile year-to-year), the largest share since 1928 (Figure 1-14). These statistics are symptomatic of a troubling disconnect between the economy’s productivity and ordinary workers’ wages that has emerged over the last 40 years. As shown in Figure 1-15, real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees roughly kept pace with productivity growth in the nonfarm business sector during the early postwar years. But starting around the 1970s, a large gap emerged between overall productivity and an ordinary worker’s take-home pay. Several factors may be contributing to this gap, including the relatively rapid increase in nonwage compensation like employer-sponsored health insurance, as well as the likelihood that productivity gains may translate into higher pay differently across occupations. Moreover, the gap is substantial regardless of whether one adjusts for inflation using the Consumer Price Index, which is more indicative of the typical household’s purchasing power, or using the price index for total nonfarm business output, which allows for a more direct comparison with the productivity data. Ultimately, the Figure illustrates the growing concern that too many ordinary workers are being left behind, and helps explain why the President has said that the basic bargain in America— that those who work hard will have the chance to get ahead—has frayed. To address this issue and to restore a greater measure of fairness and opportunity to the economy, the President has proposed a number of important measures. In the near term, the most direct step is to raise the minimum wage, which, after adjusting for inflation, has declined by more than one-third from its peak in the 1960s and is now worth less than it was when President Ronald Reagan first took office in 1981. Along with a minimum wage increase, the President has also called for other measures that would help those striving to join the middle class, including an expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit for workers without children. In addition to these immediate steps, the President has set out a range of ideas to invest in education and equip workers with the skills they will need to compete in the global economy for years to come. For instance, the ConnectEd program continues to move forward, putting high-speed Internet in classrooms across America, and the Administration has also secured over 150 new commitments from universities, businesses, and nonprofits to improve college opportunity and outcomes for students from low-income families. 42 | Chapter 1
Page 1 and 2: ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
Page 4: C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
Page 8 and 9: economic report of the president To
Page 10 and 11: year-old. In the meantime, I’m go
Page 12: the annual report of the council of
Page 16 and 17: C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1. PROMOTIN
Page 18 and 19: APPENDIX 1: COMPONENTS OF THE RECOV
Page 20 and 21: THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S RECORD
Page 22 and 23: 2.15. Housing Starts, 1960-2013....
Page 24 and 25: 3.1. Forecasted and Actual Real GDP
Page 26 and 27: C H A P T E R 1 PROMOTING OPPORTUNI
Page 28 and 29: Opportunity, Growth, and Security i
Page 30 and 31: crisis—continue to rebound and co
Page 32 and 33: Figure 1-4 Real GDP Per Working-Age
Page 34 and 35: Figure 1-6 Change in Poverty Rate F
Page 36 and 37: Figure 1-7 Domestic Crude Oil Produ
Page 38 and 39: Figure 1-8 Growth in Real Per Capit
Page 40 and 41: Figure 1-9 Unemployment Rate by Dur
Page 42 and 43: e needed to make up for a decades-l
Page 44 and 45: Annual percent change 2.50 15-year
Page 48: Along with steps that create jobs,
Page 51 and 52: corner, with purchases increasing d
Page 53 and 54: the four quarters of 2013, or enoug
Page 55 and 56: Percent of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -
Page 57 and 58: Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Figure 2-3
Page 59 and 60: In the euro area, the unemployment
Page 61 and 62: Figure 2-6 Cumulative Flows into Mu
Page 63 and 64: Figure 2-7 Household Deleveraging,
Page 65 and 66: Box 2-1: The 2013 Comprehensive Rev
Page 67 and 68: Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Figure 2
Page 69 and 70: Figure 2-11 State and Local Pension
Page 71 and 72: Percent of GDP 2 1 0 Figure 2-14 Cu
Page 73 and 74: Box 2-2. Administration Trade Polic
Page 75 and 76: Upon completion, the TPP and T-TIP
Page 77 and 78: percent of households report that i
Page 79 and 80: Figure 2-18 Petroleum Net Imports,
Page 81 and 82: Figure 2-21 U.S. Per Capita Consump
Page 83 and 84: Percent 11 Figure 2-22 Unemployment
Page 85 and 86: Figure 2-25 Predicted vs. Actual Ma
Page 87 and 88: Box 2-4: Unemployment Duration and
Page 89 and 90: The Long-Term Outlook The 11-Year F
Page 91 and 92: Growth in GDP over the Long Term As
Page 93 and 94: Box 2-5: Immigration Reform and Pot
Page 95 and 96: Even with this growth, however, the
Page 97 and 98:
families. The other half was for in
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ecause of rapidly declining stock a
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Obama Administration and the 111th
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Figure 3-1 Recovery Act Programs by
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other cases, new measures expanded
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Figure 3-2 Recovery Act and Subsequ
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Box 3-1: Other Administration Polic
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challenges, and how economists have
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Table 3-5 Estimated Output Multipli
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Figure 3-7 Quarterly Effect of the
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Table 3-6 Estimates of the Effects
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International Comparison The 2008 c
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Box 3-2: The U.S. Recovery in Compa
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Table 3-7 Tax Relief and Income Sup
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traditionally been jointly financed
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downturn in the economy. Even thoug
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Figure 3-11 Recovery Act Cumulative
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The Recovery Act also invested in r
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helped individuals who chose to ret
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the period, even though total power
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average—then the resulting increa
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Alternative Minimum Tax relief, bus
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Through the end of a Individual Tax
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y Poterba (1994), states and locali
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Table 3-11 Fiscal Support for the E
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spells. Because the resulting unemp
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literature uses two different appro
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Table 3-12 Summary of Cross-Section
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the CMS projections show real per-c
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will accrue to workers as higher wa
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Box 4-1: Two Measures of Growth in
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Figure 4-1 Growth in Real Per Capit
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in particular may not exactly track
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find that even those seniors who di
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the slowdown in real (that is, infl
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health care costs for an individual
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estimate for the ACA found that its
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Figure 4-4 Medicare 30-Day, All-Con
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agreements among the providers them
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payment for physician services, the
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Box 4-3: The Cost Slowdown and ACA
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2010a; 2011; 2012c; 2013a; 2014), w
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Figure 4-6 Recent CBO Projections o
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Conclusion The evidence is clear th
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facilitated this private-sector tec
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esulting gap between the actual gro
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Table 5-1 Sources of Productivity I
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Table 5-2 Nonfarm Private Business
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of the productivity improvement res
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Figure 5-3 Growth in Productivity a
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improving and college completion ra
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Box 5-2: Does Inequality Affect Pro
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Percent 3.5 Figure 5-5 Composition
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• Just two of the largest U.S. te
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Box 5-3: Just-in-Time Manufacturing
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Figure 5-7 Exclusive and Shared All
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Box 5-4: Spectrum Investment Polici
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To stimulate investment in more adv
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Because current uses of technology
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Box 5-5: Electronic Health Records
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about the array of services and sup
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and, in such cases, provides partie
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Box 5-6: The Leahy-Smith America In
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Box 5-7: Pay-For-Delay Settlements
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C H A P T E R 6 THE WAR ON POVERTY
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Measuring Poverty: Who is Poor in A
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thresholds ever since. These dollar
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of necessary items, including food,
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Table 6-1 Poverty Rates by Selected
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Box 6-3: Women and Poverty While wo
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However, this reflects smaller decl
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Percent 25 Figure 6-1 Trends in the
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Box 6-4: Social Programs Serve All
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of low- and middle-income workers a
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particularly valuable since they es
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Figure 6-4 Official vs Anchored Sup
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deep market poverty driven by the b
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work: in 2010, for example, unemplo
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out of poverty through job training
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e noted that researchers have found
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2012). Among the children of low-ea
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Education appears to be one of the
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Friedman, and Rockoff (2011) find t
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including an additional $25 a week
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Figure 6-11 Recovery Act and Subseq
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Empowering Every Child with a Quali
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modernize America’s high schools
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low-income Americans and their chil
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C H A P T E R 7 EVALUATION AS A TOO
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program evaluation efforts. For exa
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went to preschool would have had if
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y adopting successful interventions
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Box 7-2: Using Behavioral Economics
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Box 7-3: “Rapid Cycle” Evaluati
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Figure 7-1 Outlays for Grants to St
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performance data, fewer than half o
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Investment Act programs. The PROMIS
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Figure 7-2 Inventory of Beds for Ho
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example, included a nondiscretionar
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Other benefits of considering evalu
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with the treatment effect and thus
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unemployment insurance wage and ben
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hard for researchers to access for
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REFERENCES Chapter 1 Almunia, Migue
Page 306 and 307:
____. 2014. “Press Release: Janua
Page 308 and 309:
and the TPP at the Peterson Institu
Page 310 and 311:
Increase Employment Evidence from t
Page 312 and 313:
___. 2010b. “The Economic Impact
Page 314 and 315:
___. 2012. World Economic Outlook A
Page 316 and 317:
Polak Annual Research Conference. W
Page 318 and 319:
Baicker, Katherine and Amitabh Chan
Page 320 and 321:
Daly, Mary, Bart Hobijn, and Brian
Page 322 and 323:
Nominal Wages,” International Jou
Page 324 and 325:
Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Revie
Page 326 and 327:
Chien, Colleen V. 2012. “Reformin
Page 328 and 329:
GAO (Government Accountability Offi
Page 330 and 331:
Jorgenson, Dale. 2001. “Informati
Page 332 and 333:
Integration in Economic Development
Page 334 and 335:
_____. 2007. “Improving the Safet
Page 336 and 337:
Dahl, Gordon B. and Lance Lochner.
Page 338 and 339:
Heckman, James J. and Dimitriy V. M
Page 340 and 341:
Ludwig, Jens and Douglas Miller. 20
Page 342 and 343:
Sharkey, Patrick. 2009. “Neighbor
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_____. 2013. “Practical Evaluatio
Page 346 and 347:
www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/comm
Page 348:
Stock, James H., and Mark Watson. 2
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letter of transmittal Council of Ec
Page 354:
Council Members and Their Dates of
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The Members of the Council Betsey S
Page 359 and 360:
Act has had on reducing health care
Page 361 and 362:
Statistical Office The Statistical
Page 364:
A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
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INTEREST RATES, MONEY STOCK, AND GO
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2013-to-2014 TABLE NUMBER MATCH 201
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Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
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Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
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Table B-3. Quantity and price index
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Table B-5. Real exports and imports
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Year Total 2 Table B-7. Real farm i
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Table B-9. Median money income (in
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Year or month Civilian noninstituti
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Year or month All civilian workers
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Table B-15. Hours and earnings in p
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Year and month Interest Rates, Mone
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Year and month Table B-18. Money st
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Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-22. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-24. State and local governm
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End of month Table B-26. Estimated
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B-7. Chain-type price indexes for g
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B-28. National income by type of in
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B-48. Employment cost index, privat
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B-65. Producer price indexes by sta
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B-81. Federal receipts, outlays, su
Page 413 and 414:
B-99. Farm output and productivity
Page 415:
B-111. International reserves Inter
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