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Dahl, Gordon B. and Lance Lochner. 2012. “The Impact of Family Income on Child Achievement: Evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit.” American Economic Review 102, no. 5: 1927-1956. Danziger, Sheldon and Peter Gottschalk. 1995. America Unequal. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Danziger, Sheldon H., Lesley J. Turner, and Kristin S. Seefeldt. 2006. “Failing the Transition from Welfare to Work: Women Chronically Disconnected from Employment and Cash Welfare.” Social Science Quarterly 87, no. 2: 227-249. Deming, David. 2009. “Early Childhood Intervention and Life-Cycle Skill Development: Evidence from Head Start.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 1, no. 3: 111-134. DiNardo, John, Nicole M. Fortin, and Thomas Lemieux. 1996. “Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach.” Econometrica 64, no. 5: 1001-1044. DiNardo, John, and Thomas Lemieux. 1997. “Diverging Male Wage Inequality in the United States and Canada, 1981-1988: Do Institutions Explain the Difference” Industrial and Labor Relations Review 50, no. 4: 629-651. Doucouliagos, Hirstos and T.D. Stanley. 2009. “Publication Selection Bias in Minimum-Wage Research A Meta-Regression Analysis.” British Journal of Industrial Relations 47, no. 2: 406-428. Dowd, Tim and John B. Horowitz. 2011. “Income Mobility and the Earned Income Tax Credit: Short-Term Safety Net or Long-Term Income Support.” Public Finance Review 39, no. 5: 619-652. Dube, Arindrajit, T. William Lester, and Michael Reich. 2010. “Minimum Wage Effects Across State Borders: Estimates Using Contiguous Counties.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 92, no. 4: 945-964. Dube, Arindrajit. 2013. “Minimum Wages and the Distribution of Family Incomes.” University of Massachusetts, Amherst Working Paper. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/15038936/Dube_Minimum- WagesFamilyIncomes.pdf. Duncan, Greg J., Katherine Magnuson, Ariel Kalil, Kathleen Ziol-Guest. 2012. “The Importance of Early Childhood Poverty.” Social Indicators Research 108, no. 1: pp 87-98. References | 331
Eissa, Nada and Hilary W. Hoynes. 2005. “Behavioral Responses to Taxes: Lessons from the EITC and Labor Supply.” Working Paper 11729. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. Eissa, Nada and Jeffrey B. Liebman. 1996. “Labor Supply Response to the Earned Income Tax Credit.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 111, no. 2: 605-637. Engelhardt, Gary V., and Jonathan Gruber. 2006. “Social Security and the Evolution of Elderly Poverty.” In Public Policy and the Income Distribution, edited by Alan J. Auerbach, David E. Card, and John M. Quigley, pp. 259-287. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. Fisher, Gordon M. 1992. “The Development and History of the Poverty Thresholds.” Social Security Bulletin 55, no. 4: 3-14. Fox, Liana, Irwin Garfinkel, Neeraj Kaushal, Jane Waldfogel, and Christopher Wimer. 2013. “Waging War on Poverty: Historical Trends in Poverty Using the Supplemental Poverty Measure.” Working Paper 13-01. New York: Columbia Population Research Center. Fremstad, Shawn. 2009. “Half in Ten: Why Taking Disability into Account is Essential to Reducing Income Poverty and Expanding Economic Inclusion.” Reports and Issue Briefs 2009-30. Washington: Center for Economic and Policy Research. Garces, Eliana, Duncan Thomas, and Janet Currie. 2002. “Longer-Term Effects of Head Start.” American Economic Review 92, no. 4: 999–1012. Gibbs, Chloe, Jens Ludwig, and Douglas L. Miller. 2013. “Head Start Origins and Impacts.” In Legacies of the War on Poverty, edited by Martha Bailey and Sheldon Danziger, pp. 39-65. New York: Russell Sage Foundation Press. Gottschalk, Peter and Sheldon Danziger. 2003. “Wage Inequality, Earnings Inequality and Poverty in the U.S. Over the Last Quarter of the Twentieth Century.” Working Papers in Economics 560. Boston College Department of Economics. Hanson, Kenneth. 2010. “The Food Assistance National Income-Output Multiplier (FANIOM) Model and Stimulus Effects of SNAP.” Economic Research Report No. 103. U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. Harrington, Michael. 1962. The Other America. New York: Simon and Schuster.
Page 1 and 2:
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
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C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
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economic report of the president To
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year-old. In the meantime, I’m go
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the annual report of the council of
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C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1. PROMOTIN
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APPENDIX 1: COMPONENTS OF THE RECOV
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THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S RECORD
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2.15. Housing Starts, 1960-2013....
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3.1. Forecasted and Actual Real GDP
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C H A P T E R 1 PROMOTING OPPORTUNI
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Opportunity, Growth, and Security i
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crisis—continue to rebound and co
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Figure 1-4 Real GDP Per Working-Age
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Figure 1-6 Change in Poverty Rate F
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Figure 1-7 Domestic Crude Oil Produ
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Figure 1-8 Growth in Real Per Capit
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Figure 1-9 Unemployment Rate by Dur
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e needed to make up for a decades-l
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Annual percent change 2.50 15-year
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Figure 1-14 Share of National Incom
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Along with steps that create jobs,
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corner, with purchases increasing d
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the four quarters of 2013, or enoug
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Percent of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -
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Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Figure 2-3
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In the euro area, the unemployment
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Figure 2-6 Cumulative Flows into Mu
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Figure 2-7 Household Deleveraging,
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Box 2-1: The 2013 Comprehensive Rev
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Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Figure 2
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Figure 2-11 State and Local Pension
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Percent of GDP 2 1 0 Figure 2-14 Cu
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Box 2-2. Administration Trade Polic
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Upon completion, the TPP and T-TIP
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percent of households report that i
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Figure 2-18 Petroleum Net Imports,
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Figure 2-21 U.S. Per Capita Consump
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Percent 11 Figure 2-22 Unemployment
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Figure 2-25 Predicted vs. Actual Ma
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Box 2-4: Unemployment Duration and
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The Long-Term Outlook The 11-Year F
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Growth in GDP over the Long Term As
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Box 2-5: Immigration Reform and Pot
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Even with this growth, however, the
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families. The other half was for in
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ecause of rapidly declining stock a
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Obama Administration and the 111th
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Figure 3-1 Recovery Act Programs by
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other cases, new measures expanded
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Figure 3-2 Recovery Act and Subsequ
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Box 3-1: Other Administration Polic
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challenges, and how economists have
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Table 3-5 Estimated Output Multipli
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Figure 3-7 Quarterly Effect of the
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Table 3-6 Estimates of the Effects
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International Comparison The 2008 c
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Box 3-2: The U.S. Recovery in Compa
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Table 3-7 Tax Relief and Income Sup
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traditionally been jointly financed
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downturn in the economy. Even thoug
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Figure 3-11 Recovery Act Cumulative
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The Recovery Act also invested in r
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helped individuals who chose to ret
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the period, even though total power
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average—then the resulting increa
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Alternative Minimum Tax relief, bus
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Through the end of a Individual Tax
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y Poterba (1994), states and locali
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Table 3-11 Fiscal Support for the E
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spells. Because the resulting unemp
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literature uses two different appro
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Table 3-12 Summary of Cross-Section
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the CMS projections show real per-c
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will accrue to workers as higher wa
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Box 4-1: Two Measures of Growth in
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Figure 4-1 Growth in Real Per Capit
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in particular may not exactly track
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find that even those seniors who di
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the slowdown in real (that is, infl
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health care costs for an individual
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estimate for the ACA found that its
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Figure 4-4 Medicare 30-Day, All-Con
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agreements among the providers them
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payment for physician services, the
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Box 4-3: The Cost Slowdown and ACA
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2010a; 2011; 2012c; 2013a; 2014), w
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Figure 4-6 Recent CBO Projections o
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Conclusion The evidence is clear th
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facilitated this private-sector tec
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esulting gap between the actual gro
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Table 5-1 Sources of Productivity I
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Table 5-2 Nonfarm Private Business
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of the productivity improvement res
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Figure 5-3 Growth in Productivity a
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improving and college completion ra
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Box 5-2: Does Inequality Affect Pro
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Percent 3.5 Figure 5-5 Composition
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• Just two of the largest U.S. te
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Box 5-3: Just-in-Time Manufacturing
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Figure 5-7 Exclusive and Shared All
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Box 5-4: Spectrum Investment Polici
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To stimulate investment in more adv
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Because current uses of technology
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Box 5-5: Electronic Health Records
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about the array of services and sup
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and, in such cases, provides partie
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Box 5-6: The Leahy-Smith America In
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Box 5-7: Pay-For-Delay Settlements
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C H A P T E R 6 THE WAR ON POVERTY
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Measuring Poverty: Who is Poor in A
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thresholds ever since. These dollar
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of necessary items, including food,
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Table 6-1 Poverty Rates by Selected
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Box 6-3: Women and Poverty While wo
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However, this reflects smaller decl
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Percent 25 Figure 6-1 Trends in the
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Box 6-4: Social Programs Serve All
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of low- and middle-income workers a
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particularly valuable since they es
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Figure 6-4 Official vs Anchored Sup
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deep market poverty driven by the b
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work: in 2010, for example, unemplo
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out of poverty through job training
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e noted that researchers have found
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2012). Among the children of low-ea
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Education appears to be one of the
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Friedman, and Rockoff (2011) find t
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including an additional $25 a week
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Figure 6-11 Recovery Act and Subseq
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Empowering Every Child with a Quali
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modernize America’s high schools
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low-income Americans and their chil
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C H A P T E R 7 EVALUATION AS A TOO
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program evaluation efforts. For exa
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went to preschool would have had if
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y adopting successful interventions
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Box 7-2: Using Behavioral Economics
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Box 7-3: “Rapid Cycle” Evaluati
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Page 296 and 297: Other benefits of considering evalu
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Page 300 and 301: unemployment insurance wage and ben
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Page 304 and 305: REFERENCES Chapter 1 Almunia, Migue
Page 306 and 307: ____. 2014. “Press Release: Janua
Page 308 and 309: and the TPP at the Peterson Institu
Page 310 and 311: Increase Employment Evidence from t
Page 312 and 313: ___. 2010b. “The Economic Impact
Page 314 and 315: ___. 2012. World Economic Outlook A
Page 316 and 317: Polak Annual Research Conference. W
Page 318 and 319: Baicker, Katherine and Amitabh Chan
Page 320 and 321: Daly, Mary, Bart Hobijn, and Brian
Page 322 and 323: Nominal Wages,” International Jou
Page 324 and 325: Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Revie
Page 326 and 327: Chien, Colleen V. 2012. “Reformin
Page 328 and 329: GAO (Government Accountability Offi
Page 330 and 331: Jorgenson, Dale. 2001. “Informati
Page 332 and 333: Integration in Economic Development
Page 334 and 335: _____. 2007. “Improving the Safet
Page 338 and 339: Heckman, James J. and Dimitriy V. M
Page 340 and 341: Ludwig, Jens and Douglas Miller. 20
Page 342 and 343: Sharkey, Patrick. 2009. “Neighbor
Page 344 and 345: _____. 2013. “Practical Evaluatio
Page 346 and 347: www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/comm
Page 348: Stock, James H., and Mark Watson. 2
Page 352 and 353: letter of transmittal Council of Ec
Page 354: Council Members and Their Dates of
Page 357 and 358: The Members of the Council Betsey S
Page 359 and 360: Act has had on reducing health care
Page 361 and 362: Statistical Office The Statistical
Page 364: A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
Page 367 and 368: INTEREST RATES, MONEY STOCK, AND GO
Page 369 and 370: 2013-to-2014 TABLE NUMBER MATCH 201
Page 371 and 372: Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
Page 373 and 374: Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
Page 375 and 376: Table B-3. Quantity and price index
Page 377 and 378: Table B-5. Real exports and imports
Page 379 and 380: Year Total 2 Table B-7. Real farm i
Page 381 and 382: Table B-9. Median money income (in
Page 383 and 384: Year or month Civilian noninstituti
Page 385 and 386: Year or month All civilian workers
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Table B-15. Hours and earnings in p
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Year and month Interest Rates, Mone
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Year and month Table B-18. Money st
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Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-22. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-24. State and local governm
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End of month Table B-26. Estimated
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B-7. Chain-type price indexes for g
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B-28. National income by type of in
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B-48. Employment cost index, privat
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B-65. Producer price indexes by sta
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B-81. Federal receipts, outlays, su
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B-99. Farm output and productivity
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B-111. International reserves Inter
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