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____. 2014. “Press Release: January 29, 2014.” (http://www.federalreserve. gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20140129a.htm). (BEA) Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2013. “Comprehensive Revision: 1929 Through First Quarter 2013.” U.S. Department of Commerce. ____. 2014. “Technical Note: Gross Domestic Product Fourth Quarter of 2013 (Advance Estimate).” U.S. Department of Commerce. January. (CBO) Congressional Budget Office. 2012. “Economic Effects of Policies Contributing to Fiscal Tightening in 2013.” November. ____. 2013a. “Automatic Reductions in Government Spending aka Sequestration.” February. ____. 2013b. “The Economic Impact of S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act.” June. (CEA) Council of Economic Advisers. 1997. Economic Report of the President. February. ____. 2013. “Comprehensive GDP Revision and Advance Estimate for the Second Quarter of 2013.” July (http://www.whitehouse.gov/ blog/2013/07/31/comprehensive-gdp-revision-and-advance-estimate-second-quarter-2013). Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency. 2013. “Renewable Electricity Production Tax Credit (PTC).” October (http:// dsireusa.org/incentives/incentive.cfmIncentive_Code=US13F). (DOT) Department of the Treasury. 2012. “Description of the Extraordinary Measures.” December (http://web.archive.org/ web/20131019163723/http:/www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/Documents/Sec%20Geithner%20LETTER%2012-26-2012%20Debt%20 Limit.pdf). (EIA) Energy Information Administration. 2013. “Industrial Sector Natural Gas Use Rising.” June (http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail. cfmid=11771). ____. 2013b. “International Energy Outlook.” April (http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/ieorefngtab_1.pdf). ____. 2013c. “Oil and Gas Industry Employment Growing Much Faster than Total Private Sector Employment.” August (http://www.eia.gov/ todayinenergy/detail.cfmid=12451). (EPA) Environmental Protection Agency. 2011. “Paving the Way Toward Cleaner, More Efficient Trucks.” August. References | 301
European Central Bank. 2012. “Press Release: Technical Features of Outright Monetary Transactions.” September (http://www.ecb.europa.eu/ press/pr/date/2012/html/pr120906_1.en.html). ____ . 2013. “Monetary Policy.” (http://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/html/index. en.html). European Commission. 2013. “European Economic Forecast: Autumn 2013.” November. Executive Office of the President. 2013. “The President’s Climate Action Plan.” The White House. June. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., and Giovanni P. Olivei. 2010. “The Role of Expectations and Output in the Inflation Process: An Empirical Assessment.” Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Public Policy Brief, no. 10-2: 1-39. Gordon, Robert. 1990. “U.S. Inflation, Labor’s Share, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment.” Working Papers 2585. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. ____. 2013. “The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well: Inflation and the NAIRU During the Slow Recovery.” Working Paper 19390. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. Layard, Richard, Stephen Nickells, and Richard Jackman. 1991. Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labor Market. New York: Oxford University Press. Krueger, Alan B., and Andreas I. Mueller. 2011. “Job Search and Job Finding in a Period of Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High- Frequency Longitudinal Data.” Working Papers 1295. Princeton, NJ: Center for Economic Policy Studies. Nalewaik, Jeremy J. 2010. “The Income- and Expenditure-Side Measures of U.S. Output Growth.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 41, no. 1: 71-127. (OMB) Office of Management and Budget. 2013. “Impacts and Costs of the Government Shutdown.” (http://www.whitehouse.gov/ blog/2013/11/07/impacts-and-costs-government-shutdown). Office of the Press Secretary. 2012. “Obama Administration Finalizes Historic 54.5 MPG Fuel Efficiency Standards.” The White House. (http:// www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/08/28/obama-administration-finalizes-historic-545-mpg-fuel-efficiency-standard). (USTR) Office of the United States Trade Representative. 2013a. “Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Endy Cutler Discussed Japan 302 | References
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
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C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
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economic report of the president To
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year-old. In the meantime, I’m go
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the annual report of the council of
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C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1. PROMOTIN
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APPENDIX 1: COMPONENTS OF THE RECOV
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THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S RECORD
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2.15. Housing Starts, 1960-2013....
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3.1. Forecasted and Actual Real GDP
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C H A P T E R 1 PROMOTING OPPORTUNI
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Opportunity, Growth, and Security i
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crisis—continue to rebound and co
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Figure 1-4 Real GDP Per Working-Age
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Figure 1-6 Change in Poverty Rate F
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Figure 1-7 Domestic Crude Oil Produ
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Figure 1-8 Growth in Real Per Capit
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Figure 1-9 Unemployment Rate by Dur
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e needed to make up for a decades-l
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Annual percent change 2.50 15-year
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Figure 1-14 Share of National Incom
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Along with steps that create jobs,
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corner, with purchases increasing d
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the four quarters of 2013, or enoug
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Percent of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -
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Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Figure 2-3
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In the euro area, the unemployment
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Figure 2-6 Cumulative Flows into Mu
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Figure 2-7 Household Deleveraging,
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Box 2-1: The 2013 Comprehensive Rev
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Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Figure 2
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Figure 2-11 State and Local Pension
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Percent of GDP 2 1 0 Figure 2-14 Cu
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Box 2-2. Administration Trade Polic
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Upon completion, the TPP and T-TIP
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percent of households report that i
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Figure 2-18 Petroleum Net Imports,
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Figure 2-21 U.S. Per Capita Consump
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Percent 11 Figure 2-22 Unemployment
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Figure 2-25 Predicted vs. Actual Ma
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Box 2-4: Unemployment Duration and
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The Long-Term Outlook The 11-Year F
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Growth in GDP over the Long Term As
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Box 2-5: Immigration Reform and Pot
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Even with this growth, however, the
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families. The other half was for in
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ecause of rapidly declining stock a
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Obama Administration and the 111th
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Figure 3-1 Recovery Act Programs by
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other cases, new measures expanded
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Figure 3-2 Recovery Act and Subsequ
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Box 3-1: Other Administration Polic
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challenges, and how economists have
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Table 3-5 Estimated Output Multipli
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Figure 3-7 Quarterly Effect of the
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Table 3-6 Estimates of the Effects
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International Comparison The 2008 c
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Box 3-2: The U.S. Recovery in Compa
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Table 3-7 Tax Relief and Income Sup
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traditionally been jointly financed
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downturn in the economy. Even thoug
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Figure 3-11 Recovery Act Cumulative
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The Recovery Act also invested in r
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helped individuals who chose to ret
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the period, even though total power
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average—then the resulting increa
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Alternative Minimum Tax relief, bus
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Through the end of a Individual Tax
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y Poterba (1994), states and locali
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Table 3-11 Fiscal Support for the E
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spells. Because the resulting unemp
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literature uses two different appro
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Table 3-12 Summary of Cross-Section
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the CMS projections show real per-c
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will accrue to workers as higher wa
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Box 4-1: Two Measures of Growth in
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Figure 4-1 Growth in Real Per Capit
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in particular may not exactly track
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find that even those seniors who di
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the slowdown in real (that is, infl
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health care costs for an individual
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estimate for the ACA found that its
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Figure 4-4 Medicare 30-Day, All-Con
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agreements among the providers them
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payment for physician services, the
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Box 4-3: The Cost Slowdown and ACA
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2010a; 2011; 2012c; 2013a; 2014), w
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Figure 4-6 Recent CBO Projections o
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Conclusion The evidence is clear th
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facilitated this private-sector tec
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esulting gap between the actual gro
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Table 5-1 Sources of Productivity I
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Table 5-2 Nonfarm Private Business
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of the productivity improvement res
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Figure 5-3 Growth in Productivity a
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improving and college completion ra
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Box 5-2: Does Inequality Affect Pro
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Percent 3.5 Figure 5-5 Composition
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• Just two of the largest U.S. te
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Box 5-3: Just-in-Time Manufacturing
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Figure 5-7 Exclusive and Shared All
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Box 5-4: Spectrum Investment Polici
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To stimulate investment in more adv
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Because current uses of technology
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Box 5-5: Electronic Health Records
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about the array of services and sup
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and, in such cases, provides partie
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Box 5-6: The Leahy-Smith America In
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Box 5-7: Pay-For-Delay Settlements
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C H A P T E R 6 THE WAR ON POVERTY
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Measuring Poverty: Who is Poor in A
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thresholds ever since. These dollar
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of necessary items, including food,
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Table 6-1 Poverty Rates by Selected
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Box 6-3: Women and Poverty While wo
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However, this reflects smaller decl
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Percent 25 Figure 6-1 Trends in the
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Box 6-4: Social Programs Serve All
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of low- and middle-income workers a
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particularly valuable since they es
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Figure 6-4 Official vs Anchored Sup
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deep market poverty driven by the b
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work: in 2010, for example, unemplo
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out of poverty through job training
Page 256 and 257: e noted that researchers have found
Page 258 and 259: 2012). Among the children of low-ea
Page 260 and 261: Education appears to be one of the
Page 262 and 263: Friedman, and Rockoff (2011) find t
Page 264 and 265: including an additional $25 a week
Page 266 and 267: Figure 6-11 Recovery Act and Subseq
Page 268 and 269: Empowering Every Child with a Quali
Page 270 and 271: modernize America’s high schools
Page 272 and 273: low-income Americans and their chil
Page 274 and 275: C H A P T E R 7 EVALUATION AS A TOO
Page 276 and 277: program evaluation efforts. For exa
Page 278 and 279: went to preschool would have had if
Page 280 and 281: y adopting successful interventions
Page 282 and 283: Box 7-2: Using Behavioral Economics
Page 284 and 285: Box 7-3: “Rapid Cycle” Evaluati
Page 286 and 287: Figure 7-1 Outlays for Grants to St
Page 288 and 289: performance data, fewer than half o
Page 290 and 291: Investment Act programs. The PROMIS
Page 292 and 293: Figure 7-2 Inventory of Beds for Ho
Page 294 and 295: example, included a nondiscretionar
Page 296 and 297: Other benefits of considering evalu
Page 298 and 299: with the treatment effect and thus
Page 300 and 301: unemployment insurance wage and ben
Page 302 and 303: hard for researchers to access for
Page 304 and 305: REFERENCES Chapter 1 Almunia, Migue
Page 308 and 309: and the TPP at the Peterson Institu
Page 310 and 311: Increase Employment Evidence from t
Page 312 and 313: ___. 2010b. “The Economic Impact
Page 314 and 315: ___. 2012. World Economic Outlook A
Page 316 and 317: Polak Annual Research Conference. W
Page 318 and 319: Baicker, Katherine and Amitabh Chan
Page 320 and 321: Daly, Mary, Bart Hobijn, and Brian
Page 322 and 323: Nominal Wages,” International Jou
Page 324 and 325: Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Revie
Page 326 and 327: Chien, Colleen V. 2012. “Reformin
Page 328 and 329: GAO (Government Accountability Offi
Page 330 and 331: Jorgenson, Dale. 2001. “Informati
Page 332 and 333: Integration in Economic Development
Page 334 and 335: _____. 2007. “Improving the Safet
Page 336 and 337: Dahl, Gordon B. and Lance Lochner.
Page 338 and 339: Heckman, James J. and Dimitriy V. M
Page 340 and 341: Ludwig, Jens and Douglas Miller. 20
Page 342 and 343: Sharkey, Patrick. 2009. “Neighbor
Page 344 and 345: _____. 2013. “Practical Evaluatio
Page 346 and 347: www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/comm
Page 348: Stock, James H., and Mark Watson. 2
Page 352 and 353: letter of transmittal Council of Ec
Page 354: Council Members and Their Dates of
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The Members of the Council Betsey S
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Act has had on reducing health care
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Statistical Office The Statistical
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A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
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INTEREST RATES, MONEY STOCK, AND GO
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2013-to-2014 TABLE NUMBER MATCH 201
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Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
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Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
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Table B-3. Quantity and price index
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Table B-5. Real exports and imports
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Year Total 2 Table B-7. Real farm i
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Table B-9. Median money income (in
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Year or month Civilian noninstituti
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Year or month All civilian workers
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Table B-15. Hours and earnings in p
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Year and month Interest Rates, Mone
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Year and month Table B-18. Money st
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Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-22. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-24. State and local governm
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End of month Table B-26. Estimated
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B-7. Chain-type price indexes for g
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B-28. National income by type of in
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B-48. Employment cost index, privat
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B-65. Producer price indexes by sta
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B-81. Federal receipts, outlays, su
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B-99. Farm output and productivity
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B-111. International reserves Inter
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