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The ratio of real GDP to nonfarm business output is expected to subtract from GDP growth over the projection period (line 7, column 3), consistent with its long-run trend. The nonfarm business sector generally grows faster than government, households, and nonprofit institutions, where an accounting convention holds productivity growth to zero. Summing the growth rates of all of its components, real GDP is projected to rise at an average 2.7 percent a year over the projection period (line 8, column 3), somewhat faster than the 2.3 percent annual growth rate for potential real GDP (line 9, column 3). Actual GDP is expected to grow faster than potential GDP primarily because of the projected rise in the employment rate (line 3, column 3) as millions of currently unemployed workers find jobs. Real potential GDP (line 9, column 4) is projected to grow more slowly than the long-term historical growth rate of 3.3 percent a year (line 9, column 1). As discussed earlier, the projected slowdown in real potential GDP growth primarily reflects the lower projected growth rate of the working-age population and the retirement of the baby-boom cohort. If the effects of immigration reform were incorporated into this forecast, however, then it would show a higher real potential GDP growth rate. Conclusion As of December 2013, private payroll employment had increased for 46 months, and more gains are expected during the coming year. The economy is well situated for a pickup in growth, with households having made progress in deleveraging and building wealth, with housing demand gathering momentum, with inflation that is low and stable, and especially with the four-year period of fiscal consolidation now largely behind us. This past year’s budget brinksmanship has receded into legislation that will provide some stability during the coming year. If international economies and markets are stable or improving, that would support exports. The energy sector has also supported sustainable growth with substantial increases in domestic energy supply, declines in energy imports, and progress toward reducing carbon dioxide emissions. With these foundations, the Administration forecast projects an increase in growth during the next few years. The growth rate over the budget window will be limited, however, by demographic forces that lower the participation rate, although immigration reform would both raise the participation rate and raise the growth rate of the working-age population. The Year In Review And The Years Ahead | 89
Even with this growth, however, the economy would remain below its full potential and the unemployment rate would remain unacceptably high. Additional sound policies would speed the return of the economy to its full potential, including policies like investments in infrastructure and increasing certainty through business tax reform. Conversely, adverse policy developments in the United States or adverse shocks in the United States or abroad could impede this favorable scenario. 90 | Chapter 2
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
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C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
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economic report of the president To
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year-old. In the meantime, I’m go
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the annual report of the council of
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C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1. PROMOTIN
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APPENDIX 1: COMPONENTS OF THE RECOV
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THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S RECORD
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2.15. Housing Starts, 1960-2013....
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3.1. Forecasted and Actual Real GDP
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C H A P T E R 1 PROMOTING OPPORTUNI
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Opportunity, Growth, and Security i
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crisis—continue to rebound and co
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Figure 1-4 Real GDP Per Working-Age
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Figure 1-6 Change in Poverty Rate F
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Figure 1-7 Domestic Crude Oil Produ
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Figure 1-8 Growth in Real Per Capit
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Figure 1-9 Unemployment Rate by Dur
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e needed to make up for a decades-l
Page 44 and 45: Annual percent change 2.50 15-year
Page 46 and 47: Figure 1-14 Share of National Incom
Page 48: Along with steps that create jobs,
Page 51 and 52: corner, with purchases increasing d
Page 53 and 54: the four quarters of 2013, or enoug
Page 55 and 56: Percent of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -
Page 57 and 58: Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Figure 2-3
Page 59 and 60: In the euro area, the unemployment
Page 61 and 62: Figure 2-6 Cumulative Flows into Mu
Page 63 and 64: Figure 2-7 Household Deleveraging,
Page 65 and 66: Box 2-1: The 2013 Comprehensive Rev
Page 67 and 68: Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Figure 2
Page 69 and 70: Figure 2-11 State and Local Pension
Page 71 and 72: Percent of GDP 2 1 0 Figure 2-14 Cu
Page 73 and 74: Box 2-2. Administration Trade Polic
Page 75 and 76: Upon completion, the TPP and T-TIP
Page 77 and 78: percent of households report that i
Page 79 and 80: Figure 2-18 Petroleum Net Imports,
Page 81 and 82: Figure 2-21 U.S. Per Capita Consump
Page 83 and 84: Percent 11 Figure 2-22 Unemployment
Page 85 and 86: Figure 2-25 Predicted vs. Actual Ma
Page 87 and 88: Box 2-4: Unemployment Duration and
Page 89 and 90: The Long-Term Outlook The 11-Year F
Page 91 and 92: Growth in GDP over the Long Term As
Page 93: Box 2-5: Immigration Reform and Pot
Page 97 and 98: families. The other half was for in
Page 99 and 100: ecause of rapidly declining stock a
Page 101 and 102: Obama Administration and the 111th
Page 103 and 104: Figure 3-1 Recovery Act Programs by
Page 105 and 106: other cases, new measures expanded
Page 107 and 108: Figure 3-2 Recovery Act and Subsequ
Page 109 and 110: Box 3-1: Other Administration Polic
Page 111 and 112: challenges, and how economists have
Page 113 and 114: Table 3-5 Estimated Output Multipli
Page 115 and 116: Figure 3-7 Quarterly Effect of the
Page 117 and 118: Table 3-6 Estimates of the Effects
Page 119 and 120: International Comparison The 2008 c
Page 121 and 122: Box 3-2: The U.S. Recovery in Compa
Page 123 and 124: Table 3-7 Tax Relief and Income Sup
Page 125 and 126: traditionally been jointly financed
Page 127 and 128: downturn in the economy. Even thoug
Page 129 and 130: Figure 3-11 Recovery Act Cumulative
Page 131 and 132: The Recovery Act also invested in r
Page 133 and 134: helped individuals who chose to ret
Page 135 and 136: the period, even though total power
Page 137 and 138: average—then the resulting increa
Page 139 and 140: Alternative Minimum Tax relief, bus
Page 141 and 142: Through the end of a Individual Tax
Page 143 and 144: y Poterba (1994), states and locali
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Table 3-11 Fiscal Support for the E
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spells. Because the resulting unemp
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literature uses two different appro
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Table 3-12 Summary of Cross-Section
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the CMS projections show real per-c
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will accrue to workers as higher wa
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Box 4-1: Two Measures of Growth in
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Figure 4-1 Growth in Real Per Capit
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in particular may not exactly track
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find that even those seniors who di
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the slowdown in real (that is, infl
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health care costs for an individual
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estimate for the ACA found that its
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Figure 4-4 Medicare 30-Day, All-Con
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agreements among the providers them
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payment for physician services, the
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Box 4-3: The Cost Slowdown and ACA
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2010a; 2011; 2012c; 2013a; 2014), w
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Figure 4-6 Recent CBO Projections o
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Conclusion The evidence is clear th
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facilitated this private-sector tec
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esulting gap between the actual gro
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Table 5-1 Sources of Productivity I
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Table 5-2 Nonfarm Private Business
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of the productivity improvement res
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Figure 5-3 Growth in Productivity a
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improving and college completion ra
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Box 5-2: Does Inequality Affect Pro
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Percent 3.5 Figure 5-5 Composition
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• Just two of the largest U.S. te
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Box 5-3: Just-in-Time Manufacturing
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Figure 5-7 Exclusive and Shared All
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Box 5-4: Spectrum Investment Polici
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To stimulate investment in more adv
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Because current uses of technology
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Box 5-5: Electronic Health Records
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about the array of services and sup
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and, in such cases, provides partie
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Box 5-6: The Leahy-Smith America In
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Box 5-7: Pay-For-Delay Settlements
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C H A P T E R 6 THE WAR ON POVERTY
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Measuring Poverty: Who is Poor in A
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thresholds ever since. These dollar
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of necessary items, including food,
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Table 6-1 Poverty Rates by Selected
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Box 6-3: Women and Poverty While wo
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However, this reflects smaller decl
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Percent 25 Figure 6-1 Trends in the
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Box 6-4: Social Programs Serve All
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of low- and middle-income workers a
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particularly valuable since they es
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Figure 6-4 Official vs Anchored Sup
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deep market poverty driven by the b
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work: in 2010, for example, unemplo
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out of poverty through job training
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e noted that researchers have found
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2012). Among the children of low-ea
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Education appears to be one of the
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Friedman, and Rockoff (2011) find t
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including an additional $25 a week
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Figure 6-11 Recovery Act and Subseq
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Empowering Every Child with a Quali
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modernize America’s high schools
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low-income Americans and their chil
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C H A P T E R 7 EVALUATION AS A TOO
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program evaluation efforts. For exa
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went to preschool would have had if
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y adopting successful interventions
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Box 7-2: Using Behavioral Economics
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Box 7-3: “Rapid Cycle” Evaluati
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Figure 7-1 Outlays for Grants to St
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performance data, fewer than half o
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Investment Act programs. The PROMIS
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Figure 7-2 Inventory of Beds for Ho
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example, included a nondiscretionar
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Other benefits of considering evalu
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with the treatment effect and thus
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unemployment insurance wage and ben
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hard for researchers to access for
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REFERENCES Chapter 1 Almunia, Migue
Page 306 and 307:
____. 2014. “Press Release: Janua
Page 308 and 309:
and the TPP at the Peterson Institu
Page 310 and 311:
Increase Employment Evidence from t
Page 312 and 313:
___. 2010b. “The Economic Impact
Page 314 and 315:
___. 2012. World Economic Outlook A
Page 316 and 317:
Polak Annual Research Conference. W
Page 318 and 319:
Baicker, Katherine and Amitabh Chan
Page 320 and 321:
Daly, Mary, Bart Hobijn, and Brian
Page 322 and 323:
Nominal Wages,” International Jou
Page 324 and 325:
Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Revie
Page 326 and 327:
Chien, Colleen V. 2012. “Reformin
Page 328 and 329:
GAO (Government Accountability Offi
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Jorgenson, Dale. 2001. “Informati
Page 332 and 333:
Integration in Economic Development
Page 334 and 335:
_____. 2007. “Improving the Safet
Page 336 and 337:
Dahl, Gordon B. and Lance Lochner.
Page 338 and 339:
Heckman, James J. and Dimitriy V. M
Page 340 and 341:
Ludwig, Jens and Douglas Miller. 20
Page 342 and 343:
Sharkey, Patrick. 2009. “Neighbor
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_____. 2013. “Practical Evaluatio
Page 346 and 347:
www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/comm
Page 348:
Stock, James H., and Mark Watson. 2
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letter of transmittal Council of Ec
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Council Members and Their Dates of
Page 357 and 358:
The Members of the Council Betsey S
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Act has had on reducing health care
Page 361 and 362:
Statistical Office The Statistical
Page 364:
A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
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INTEREST RATES, MONEY STOCK, AND GO
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2013-to-2014 TABLE NUMBER MATCH 201
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Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
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Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
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Table B-3. Quantity and price index
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Table B-5. Real exports and imports
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Year Total 2 Table B-7. Real farm i
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Table B-9. Median money income (in
Page 383 and 384:
Year or month Civilian noninstituti
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Year or month All civilian workers
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Table B-15. Hours and earnings in p
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Year and month Interest Rates, Mone
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Year and month Table B-18. Money st
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Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-22. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-24. State and local governm
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End of month Table B-26. Estimated
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B-7. Chain-type price indexes for g
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B-28. National income by type of in
Page 407 and 408:
B-48. Employment cost index, privat
Page 409 and 410:
B-65. Producer price indexes by sta
Page 411 and 412:
B-81. Federal receipts, outlays, su
Page 413 and 414:
B-99. Farm output and productivity
Page 415:
B-111. International reserves Inter
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