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Box 6-3: Women and Poverty While women continue to have a higher poverty rate than men, the gap has decreased over time as poverty has fallen more for women than for men. The following chart shows that the gap between working-age women and men has decreased from 4.7 percent to 1.7 percent from 1967 to 2012. The decline in the poverty rate among women has been tempered by an increase in the number of single mothers, who have higher rates of poverty. The share of working-age women who are single mothers rose from 11.6 to 16.1 percent between 1967 and 2012. Had the poverty rates of demographic groups (based on marriage and motherhood only) remained as they were in 1967, this change would have increased poverty rates for working-age women by 2.1 percentage points. In fact, poverty rates of women in all marriage and motherhood groups fell due to increased work, rising education, and smaller families (Cancian and Reed 2009), as well as to the increased impact of the safety net described in this chapter. The effect of government transfer and social insurance programs on poverty is slightly larger for women than for men. These programs reduced the 2012 poverty rate by 8.1 percentage points for working-age women compared to 6.4 percentage points for working-age men. This gender difference has been fairly stable over time, indicating that growth in these programs does not explain the narrowing poverty gap shown above. Rather, the closing of the gender poverty gap appears to be due to increases in women’s education and employment rates relative to men. SPM Poverty Rates for Working Age Adults by Gender, 1967–2012 Percent 25 20 2012 15 Women 10 Men 5 Difference (Women-Men) 0 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 Source: Wimer et al (2013). The War On Poverty 50 Years Later: A Progress Report | 231
expenditures on medical expenses from a family’s resources, and the elderly tend to have much higher medical expenses. Indeed, if the out-of-pocket medical costs were not subtracted, the measured elderly poverty rate would be only 8.4 percent—lower than their official poverty rate of 9.1 percent.12 In the absence of Medicare and Medicaid, out-of-pocket medical expenses of the elderly would almost certainly cause their poverty to be much higher than the SPM poverty rate of 14.8 percent. Women Women are more likely than men to be in poverty, with a 2012 poverty rate of 16.7 percent compared to 15.3 percent among men. This gap largely reflects higher poverty among single women, both those age 18-64 (22.9 percent compared to 20.2 percent among single men) and those age 65 or older (21.2 percent compared to 16.1 percent among single men). Childcare responsibilities help explain the poverty gap for single working-age women. Almost one-third (31.0 percent) of single women age 18-64 lived with their children in 2012, among whom the poverty rate was 27.5 percent. Just over one-third (35.2 percent) of single mothers age 18-64 were employed full-time, full-year in 2012, compared to 44.6 percent of single working-age males and 43.3 percent of single working-age women without children at home. Increased support for childcare for young children has been shown to positively affect mothers’ employment hours and earnings (Connelly and Kimmel 2003; Misra, Budig, and Boeckmann 2011). The high poverty rate among older single women relative to men reflects a combination of lower Social Security benefits due to lower lifetime earnings; lower rates of pension coverage; and greater longevity that increases the chances of outliving their private savings (Anzick and Weaver 2001, SSA 2012). Race and Ethnicity Poverty rates have fallen for all racial and ethnic groups over time and gaps by race have shrunk slightly. However, troubling gaps still remain. In 1959, nearly three-fifths of African Americans were in poverty, which was nearly three times the poverty rate of Whites. The fraction of African Americans in poverty has fallen by more than half since then; yet at 25.8 percent, the SPM poverty rate for African Americans is still more than double the rate of 10.7 percent for Whites. Today, the SPM poverty rate among Hispanics is 27.8 percent, similar to that among African Americans. 12 Accounting for out-of-pocket medical expenses raises measured poverty for nonelderly adults and children by 2.9 and 3.1 percentage points, respectively. 232 | Chapter 6
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
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C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
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economic report of the president To
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year-old. In the meantime, I’m go
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the annual report of the council of
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C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1. PROMOTIN
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APPENDIX 1: COMPONENTS OF THE RECOV
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THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S RECORD
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2.15. Housing Starts, 1960-2013....
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3.1. Forecasted and Actual Real GDP
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C H A P T E R 1 PROMOTING OPPORTUNI
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Opportunity, Growth, and Security i
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crisis—continue to rebound and co
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Figure 1-4 Real GDP Per Working-Age
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Figure 1-6 Change in Poverty Rate F
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Figure 1-7 Domestic Crude Oil Produ
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Figure 1-8 Growth in Real Per Capit
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Figure 1-9 Unemployment Rate by Dur
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e needed to make up for a decades-l
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Annual percent change 2.50 15-year
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Figure 1-14 Share of National Incom
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Along with steps that create jobs,
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corner, with purchases increasing d
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the four quarters of 2013, or enoug
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Percent of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -
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Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Figure 2-3
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In the euro area, the unemployment
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Figure 2-6 Cumulative Flows into Mu
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Figure 2-7 Household Deleveraging,
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Box 2-1: The 2013 Comprehensive Rev
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Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Figure 2
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Figure 2-11 State and Local Pension
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Percent of GDP 2 1 0 Figure 2-14 Cu
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Box 2-2. Administration Trade Polic
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Upon completion, the TPP and T-TIP
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percent of households report that i
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Figure 2-18 Petroleum Net Imports,
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Figure 2-21 U.S. Per Capita Consump
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Percent 11 Figure 2-22 Unemployment
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Figure 2-25 Predicted vs. Actual Ma
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Box 2-4: Unemployment Duration and
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The Long-Term Outlook The 11-Year F
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Growth in GDP over the Long Term As
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Box 2-5: Immigration Reform and Pot
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Even with this growth, however, the
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families. The other half was for in
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ecause of rapidly declining stock a
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Obama Administration and the 111th
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Figure 3-1 Recovery Act Programs by
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other cases, new measures expanded
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Figure 3-2 Recovery Act and Subsequ
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Box 3-1: Other Administration Polic
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challenges, and how economists have
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Table 3-5 Estimated Output Multipli
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Figure 3-7 Quarterly Effect of the
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Table 3-6 Estimates of the Effects
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International Comparison The 2008 c
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Box 3-2: The U.S. Recovery in Compa
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Table 3-7 Tax Relief and Income Sup
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traditionally been jointly financed
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downturn in the economy. Even thoug
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Figure 3-11 Recovery Act Cumulative
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The Recovery Act also invested in r
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helped individuals who chose to ret
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the period, even though total power
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average—then the resulting increa
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Alternative Minimum Tax relief, bus
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Through the end of a Individual Tax
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y Poterba (1994), states and locali
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Table 3-11 Fiscal Support for the E
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spells. Because the resulting unemp
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literature uses two different appro
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Table 3-12 Summary of Cross-Section
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the CMS projections show real per-c
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will accrue to workers as higher wa
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Box 4-1: Two Measures of Growth in
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Figure 4-1 Growth in Real Per Capit
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in particular may not exactly track
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find that even those seniors who di
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the slowdown in real (that is, infl
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health care costs for an individual
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estimate for the ACA found that its
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Figure 4-4 Medicare 30-Day, All-Con
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agreements among the providers them
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payment for physician services, the
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Box 4-3: The Cost Slowdown and ACA
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2010a; 2011; 2012c; 2013a; 2014), w
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Figure 4-6 Recent CBO Projections o
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Conclusion The evidence is clear th
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Page 189 and 190: Table 5-1 Sources of Productivity I
Page 191 and 192: Table 5-2 Nonfarm Private Business
Page 193 and 194: of the productivity improvement res
Page 195 and 196: Figure 5-3 Growth in Productivity a
Page 197 and 198: improving and college completion ra
Page 199 and 200: Box 5-2: Does Inequality Affect Pro
Page 201 and 202: Percent 3.5 Figure 5-5 Composition
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Page 205 and 206: Box 5-3: Just-in-Time Manufacturing
Page 207 and 208: Figure 5-7 Exclusive and Shared All
Page 209 and 210: Box 5-4: Spectrum Investment Polici
Page 211 and 212: To stimulate investment in more adv
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Page 215 and 216: Box 5-5: Electronic Health Records
Page 217 and 218: about the array of services and sup
Page 219 and 220: and, in such cases, provides partie
Page 221 and 222: Box 5-6: The Leahy-Smith America In
Page 223 and 224: Box 5-7: Pay-For-Delay Settlements
Page 226 and 227: C H A P T E R 6 THE WAR ON POVERTY
Page 228 and 229: Measuring Poverty: Who is Poor in A
Page 230 and 231: thresholds ever since. These dollar
Page 232 and 233: of necessary items, including food,
Page 234 and 235: Table 6-1 Poverty Rates by Selected
Page 238 and 239: However, this reflects smaller decl
Page 240 and 241: Percent 25 Figure 6-1 Trends in the
Page 242 and 243: Box 6-4: Social Programs Serve All
Page 244 and 245: of low- and middle-income workers a
Page 246 and 247: particularly valuable since they es
Page 248 and 249: Figure 6-4 Official vs Anchored Sup
Page 250 and 251: deep market poverty driven by the b
Page 252 and 253: work: in 2010, for example, unemplo
Page 254 and 255: out of poverty through job training
Page 256 and 257: e noted that researchers have found
Page 258 and 259: 2012). Among the children of low-ea
Page 260 and 261: Education appears to be one of the
Page 262 and 263: Friedman, and Rockoff (2011) find t
Page 264 and 265: including an additional $25 a week
Page 266 and 267: Figure 6-11 Recovery Act and Subseq
Page 268 and 269: Empowering Every Child with a Quali
Page 270 and 271: modernize America’s high schools
Page 272 and 273: low-income Americans and their chil
Page 274 and 275: C H A P T E R 7 EVALUATION AS A TOO
Page 276 and 277: program evaluation efforts. For exa
Page 278 and 279: went to preschool would have had if
Page 280 and 281: y adopting successful interventions
Page 282 and 283: Box 7-2: Using Behavioral Economics
Page 284 and 285: Box 7-3: “Rapid Cycle” Evaluati
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Figure 7-1 Outlays for Grants to St
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performance data, fewer than half o
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Investment Act programs. The PROMIS
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Figure 7-2 Inventory of Beds for Ho
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example, included a nondiscretionar
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Other benefits of considering evalu
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with the treatment effect and thus
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unemployment insurance wage and ben
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hard for researchers to access for
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REFERENCES Chapter 1 Almunia, Migue
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____. 2014. “Press Release: Janua
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and the TPP at the Peterson Institu
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Increase Employment Evidence from t
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___. 2010b. “The Economic Impact
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___. 2012. World Economic Outlook A
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Polak Annual Research Conference. W
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Baicker, Katherine and Amitabh Chan
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Daly, Mary, Bart Hobijn, and Brian
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Nominal Wages,” International Jou
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Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Revie
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Chien, Colleen V. 2012. “Reformin
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GAO (Government Accountability Offi
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Jorgenson, Dale. 2001. “Informati
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Integration in Economic Development
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_____. 2007. “Improving the Safet
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Dahl, Gordon B. and Lance Lochner.
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Heckman, James J. and Dimitriy V. M
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Ludwig, Jens and Douglas Miller. 20
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Sharkey, Patrick. 2009. “Neighbor
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_____. 2013. “Practical Evaluatio
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www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/comm
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Stock, James H., and Mark Watson. 2
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letter of transmittal Council of Ec
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Council Members and Their Dates of
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The Members of the Council Betsey S
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Act has had on reducing health care
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Statistical Office The Statistical
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A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
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INTEREST RATES, MONEY STOCK, AND GO
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2013-to-2014 TABLE NUMBER MATCH 201
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Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
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Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
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Table B-3. Quantity and price index
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Table B-5. Real exports and imports
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Year Total 2 Table B-7. Real farm i
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Table B-9. Median money income (in
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Year or month Civilian noninstituti
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Year or month All civilian workers
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Table B-15. Hours and earnings in p
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Year and month Interest Rates, Mone
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Year and month Table B-18. Money st
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Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-22. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-24. State and local governm
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End of month Table B-26. Estimated
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B-7. Chain-type price indexes for g
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B-28. National income by type of in
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B-48. Employment cost index, privat
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B-65. Producer price indexes by sta
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B-81. Federal receipts, outlays, su
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B-99. Farm output and productivity
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B-111. International reserves Inter
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