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Daly, Mary, Bart Hobijn, and Brian Lucking. 2012. “Why Has Wage Growth Stayed Strong” Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco. (http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/ economic-letter/2012/april/strong-wage-growth/). Dranove, David. 1988. “Pricing by Non-Profit Institutions.” Journal of Health Economics 7 (March): 47-57. Elmendorf, Douglas. 2013. “The Slowdown in Health Care Spending.” Presentation to the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity. Washington: Brookings Institution. September 19 (http://www.cbo.gov/ publication/44596). Frakt, Austin B. 2011. “How Much Do Hospitals Cost Shift A Review of the Evidence.” The Milbank Quarterly 89, no. 1: 90-130. ______. 2013. “The End of Hospital Cost Shifting and the Quest for Hospital Productivity.” Health Services Research 49 (September): 1-10. Gerhardt, Geoffrey, et al. 2013. “Medicare Readmission Rates Showed Meaningful Decline in 2012.” Medicare & Medicaid Research Review 3, no. 2: E1-E12. Gruber, Jonathan and Alan B. Krueger. 1991. “The Incidence of Mandated Employer-Provided Insurance: Lessons From Workers’ Compensation Insurance.” In Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, edited by David Bradford, pp. 111-144. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Gruber, Jonathan. 1994. “The Incidence of Mandated Maternity Benefits.” American Economic Review 84, no. 3: 622-641. He, Daifeng and Jennifer M. Mellor. 2012. “Hospital volume responses to Medicare’s Outpatient Prospective Payment System: Evidence from Florida.” Journal of Health Economics 31: 730-743. Holahan, John and Stacey McMorrow. 2012. “Medicare, Medicaid, and the Deficit Debate.” Washington: Urban Institute. (http://www.urban. org/UploadedPDF/412544-Medicare-Medicaid-and-the-Deficit- Debate.pdf). IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics. 2013. “Declining Medicine Use and Costs: For Better or Worse” (http://static.correofarmaceutico. com/docs/2013/05/20/usareport.pdf). Kaiser Family Foundation. 2013a. “2013 Employer Health Benefits Survey.” (http://kff.org/private-insurance/ report/2013-employer-health-benefits). References | 315
______. 2013b. “Medicaid Enrollment: June 2012 Data Snapshot.” (http:// kaiserfamilyfoundation.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/8050- 06-medicaid-enrollment.pdf). Kaiser Family Foundation and Altarum Institute. 2013. “Assessing the Effects of the Economy on the Recent Slowdown in Health Spending.” (http://kff.org/health-costs/issue-brief/assessing-the-effects-of-theeconomy-on-the-recent-slowdown-in-health-spending-2). Levine, Michael and Melinda Buntin. 2013. “Why Has Growth in Spending for Fee-for-Service Medicare Slowed” Working Paper 2013-06. Congressional Budget Office. Martin, Anne B., et al. 2014. “National Health Spending in 2012: Rate of Health Spending Growth Remained Low for the Fourth Consecutive Year.” Health Affairs 33, no. 1: 1-11. McClellan, Mark, et al. 1998. “Are Medical Prices Declining Evidence from Heart Attack Treatments.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 113, no. 4: 991-1024. McWilliams, J. Michael, Bruce Landon, Michael E. Chernew. 2013. “Changes in Health Care Spending and Quality for Medicare Beneficiaries Associated With a Commercial ACO Contract.” Journal of the American Medical Association 310, no. 8: 829-836. MedPAC (Medicare Payment Advisory Commission). 2009. “Improving Incentives in the Medicare Program.” (http://www.medpac.gov/ documents/jun09_entirereport.pdf). Morrissey, Michael A. 1994. Cost Shifting in Health Care: Separating Evidence from Rhetoric. Washington: American Enterprise Institute. Ryu, Alexander J., et al. 2013. “The Slowdown in Health Care Spending in 2009-11 Reflected Factors Other than the Weak Economy and Thus May Persist.” Health Affairs 32, no. 5: 835-840. Sisko, Andrea, et al. 2009. “Health Spending Projections Through 2018: Recession Effects Add Uncertainty to the Outlook.” Health Affairs 28, no. 2: 346-357. Sood, Neeraj, Arkadipta Ghosh and Jose J. Escarce. 2009. “Costs, Use and Outcomes: Employer-Sponsored Insurance, Health Care Cost Growth, and the Economic Performance of U.S. Industries.” Health Services Research 44, no. 5: 1449-1464. Sommers, Benjamin D. 2005. “Who Really Pays for Health Insurance The Incidence of Employer-Provided Health Insurance with Sticky 316 | References
Page 1 and 2:
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
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C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
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economic report of the president To
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year-old. In the meantime, I’m go
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the annual report of the council of
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C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1. PROMOTIN
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APPENDIX 1: COMPONENTS OF THE RECOV
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THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S RECORD
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2.15. Housing Starts, 1960-2013....
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3.1. Forecasted and Actual Real GDP
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C H A P T E R 1 PROMOTING OPPORTUNI
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Opportunity, Growth, and Security i
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crisis—continue to rebound and co
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Figure 1-4 Real GDP Per Working-Age
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Figure 1-6 Change in Poverty Rate F
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Figure 1-7 Domestic Crude Oil Produ
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Figure 1-8 Growth in Real Per Capit
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Figure 1-9 Unemployment Rate by Dur
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e needed to make up for a decades-l
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Annual percent change 2.50 15-year
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Figure 1-14 Share of National Incom
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Along with steps that create jobs,
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corner, with purchases increasing d
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the four quarters of 2013, or enoug
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Percent of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -
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Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Figure 2-3
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In the euro area, the unemployment
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Figure 2-6 Cumulative Flows into Mu
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Figure 2-7 Household Deleveraging,
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Box 2-1: The 2013 Comprehensive Rev
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Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Figure 2
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Figure 2-11 State and Local Pension
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Percent of GDP 2 1 0 Figure 2-14 Cu
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Box 2-2. Administration Trade Polic
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Upon completion, the TPP and T-TIP
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percent of households report that i
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Figure 2-18 Petroleum Net Imports,
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Figure 2-21 U.S. Per Capita Consump
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Percent 11 Figure 2-22 Unemployment
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Figure 2-25 Predicted vs. Actual Ma
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Box 2-4: Unemployment Duration and
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The Long-Term Outlook The 11-Year F
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Growth in GDP over the Long Term As
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Box 2-5: Immigration Reform and Pot
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Even with this growth, however, the
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families. The other half was for in
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ecause of rapidly declining stock a
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Obama Administration and the 111th
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Figure 3-1 Recovery Act Programs by
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other cases, new measures expanded
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Figure 3-2 Recovery Act and Subsequ
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Box 3-1: Other Administration Polic
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challenges, and how economists have
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Table 3-5 Estimated Output Multipli
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Figure 3-7 Quarterly Effect of the
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Table 3-6 Estimates of the Effects
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International Comparison The 2008 c
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Box 3-2: The U.S. Recovery in Compa
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Table 3-7 Tax Relief and Income Sup
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traditionally been jointly financed
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downturn in the economy. Even thoug
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Figure 3-11 Recovery Act Cumulative
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The Recovery Act also invested in r
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helped individuals who chose to ret
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the period, even though total power
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average—then the resulting increa
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Alternative Minimum Tax relief, bus
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Through the end of a Individual Tax
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y Poterba (1994), states and locali
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Table 3-11 Fiscal Support for the E
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spells. Because the resulting unemp
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literature uses two different appro
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Table 3-12 Summary of Cross-Section
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the CMS projections show real per-c
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will accrue to workers as higher wa
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Box 4-1: Two Measures of Growth in
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Figure 4-1 Growth in Real Per Capit
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in particular may not exactly track
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find that even those seniors who di
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the slowdown in real (that is, infl
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health care costs for an individual
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estimate for the ACA found that its
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Figure 4-4 Medicare 30-Day, All-Con
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agreements among the providers them
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payment for physician services, the
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Box 4-3: The Cost Slowdown and ACA
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2010a; 2011; 2012c; 2013a; 2014), w
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Figure 4-6 Recent CBO Projections o
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Conclusion The evidence is clear th
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facilitated this private-sector tec
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esulting gap between the actual gro
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Table 5-1 Sources of Productivity I
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Table 5-2 Nonfarm Private Business
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of the productivity improvement res
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Figure 5-3 Growth in Productivity a
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improving and college completion ra
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Box 5-2: Does Inequality Affect Pro
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Percent 3.5 Figure 5-5 Composition
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• Just two of the largest U.S. te
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Box 5-3: Just-in-Time Manufacturing
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Figure 5-7 Exclusive and Shared All
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Box 5-4: Spectrum Investment Polici
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To stimulate investment in more adv
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Because current uses of technology
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Box 5-5: Electronic Health Records
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about the array of services and sup
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and, in such cases, provides partie
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Box 5-6: The Leahy-Smith America In
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Box 5-7: Pay-For-Delay Settlements
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C H A P T E R 6 THE WAR ON POVERTY
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Measuring Poverty: Who is Poor in A
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thresholds ever since. These dollar
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of necessary items, including food,
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Table 6-1 Poverty Rates by Selected
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Box 6-3: Women and Poverty While wo
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However, this reflects smaller decl
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Percent 25 Figure 6-1 Trends in the
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Box 6-4: Social Programs Serve All
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of low- and middle-income workers a
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particularly valuable since they es
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Figure 6-4 Official vs Anchored Sup
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deep market poverty driven by the b
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work: in 2010, for example, unemplo
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out of poverty through job training
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e noted that researchers have found
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2012). Among the children of low-ea
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Education appears to be one of the
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Friedman, and Rockoff (2011) find t
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including an additional $25 a week
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Figure 6-11 Recovery Act and Subseq
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Empowering Every Child with a Quali
Page 270 and 271: modernize America’s high schools
Page 272 and 273: low-income Americans and their chil
Page 274 and 275: C H A P T E R 7 EVALUATION AS A TOO
Page 276 and 277: program evaluation efforts. For exa
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Page 282 and 283: Box 7-2: Using Behavioral Economics
Page 284 and 285: Box 7-3: “Rapid Cycle” Evaluati
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Page 288 and 289: performance data, fewer than half o
Page 290 and 291: Investment Act programs. The PROMIS
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Page 294 and 295: example, included a nondiscretionar
Page 296 and 297: Other benefits of considering evalu
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Page 300 and 301: unemployment insurance wage and ben
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Page 304 and 305: REFERENCES Chapter 1 Almunia, Migue
Page 306 and 307: ____. 2014. “Press Release: Janua
Page 308 and 309: and the TPP at the Peterson Institu
Page 310 and 311: Increase Employment Evidence from t
Page 312 and 313: ___. 2010b. “The Economic Impact
Page 314 and 315: ___. 2012. World Economic Outlook A
Page 316 and 317: Polak Annual Research Conference. W
Page 318 and 319: Baicker, Katherine and Amitabh Chan
Page 322 and 323: Nominal Wages,” International Jou
Page 324 and 325: Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Revie
Page 326 and 327: Chien, Colleen V. 2012. “Reformin
Page 328 and 329: GAO (Government Accountability Offi
Page 330 and 331: Jorgenson, Dale. 2001. “Informati
Page 332 and 333: Integration in Economic Development
Page 334 and 335: _____. 2007. “Improving the Safet
Page 336 and 337: Dahl, Gordon B. and Lance Lochner.
Page 338 and 339: Heckman, James J. and Dimitriy V. M
Page 340 and 341: Ludwig, Jens and Douglas Miller. 20
Page 342 and 343: Sharkey, Patrick. 2009. “Neighbor
Page 344 and 345: _____. 2013. “Practical Evaluatio
Page 346 and 347: www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/comm
Page 348: Stock, James H., and Mark Watson. 2
Page 352 and 353: letter of transmittal Council of Ec
Page 354: Council Members and Their Dates of
Page 357 and 358: The Members of the Council Betsey S
Page 359 and 360: Act has had on reducing health care
Page 361 and 362: Statistical Office The Statistical
Page 364: A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
Page 367 and 368: INTEREST RATES, MONEY STOCK, AND GO
Page 369 and 370: 2013-to-2014 TABLE NUMBER MATCH 201
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Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
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Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
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Table B-3. Quantity and price index
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Table B-5. Real exports and imports
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Year Total 2 Table B-7. Real farm i
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Table B-9. Median money income (in
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Year or month Civilian noninstituti
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Year or month All civilian workers
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Table B-15. Hours and earnings in p
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Year and month Interest Rates, Mone
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Year and month Table B-18. Money st
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Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-22. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-24. State and local governm
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End of month Table B-26. Estimated
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B-7. Chain-type price indexes for g
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B-28. National income by type of in
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B-48. Employment cost index, privat
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B-65. Producer price indexes by sta
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B-81. Federal receipts, outlays, su
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B-99. Farm output and productivity
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B-111. International reserves Inter
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