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Enacted 2009 Table 3–4 Fiscal Support for the Economy Enacted After the Recovery Act Billions of Dollars 2009–12 2009–19 Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act (HR 3548) 35 24 Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2009 (HR 2346) (Cash for Clunkers) 3 3 Defense Appropriations Act of 2010 (HR 3326) (Unemployment Insurance and COBRA) 18 18 Enacted 2010 Temporary Extension Act of 2010 (HR 4691) 9 9 Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act (HR 2847) 13 15 Continuing Extension Act of 2010 (HR 4851) 16 16 Unemployment Compensation Act of 2010 (HR 4213) 33 34 FAA Safety Improvement Act (HR 1586) (Education Jobs/ FMAP Extension) 26 12 Small Business Jobs Act (HR 5297) 68 10 Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act (HR 4853) 309 237 Enacted 2011 Temporary Payroll Tax Cut Continuation Act (HR 3765) 28 29 VOW to Hire Heroes Act (HR 674) 0 –0 Enacted 2012 Middle Class Tax Relief and Job Creation Act of 2012 (HR 3630) 98 123 American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (HR 8) 17 178 Total 674 709 Note: All measures use prospective CBO cost estimates for 2009–19. Routine tax extenders have been removed from the cost estimates. Column 1 contains data through the end of calendar year 2012, while Column 2 contains data through the end of fiscal year 2019. Source: Congressional Budget Office; Joint Committee on Taxation. responses—known as “automatic stabilizers”—can help moderate business cycles (as shown for instance by Auerbach and Feenberg (2000) and Follette and Lutz (2010)) in addition to alleviating the human costs of economic downturns. As has been the case over the last several decades, automatic stabilizers also played a significant role during the most recent recession and recovery. Although CBO (2014) estimated that most fiscal expansion came from enacted legislation or discretionary fiscal policy, automatic stabilizers accounted for about one-quarter of the countercyclical fiscal expansion that occurred in FY 2009, and a much larger fraction thereafter as shown in Figure 3-3. The Economic Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Five Years Later | 101
Figure 3-2 Recovery Act and Subsequent Fiscal Measures by Functional Category Public Investment Outlays (18%) Individual Tax Cuts (31%) Aid to Directly Impacted Individuals (20%) State Fiscal Relief (12%) Business Tax Incentives (19%) Note: Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding. Data does not include AMT Relief. Source: Office of Management and Budget, Agency Financial and Activity Reports; Department of the Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis, based on the FY2013 Mid-Session Review; Congressional Budget Office. Figure 3-3 Automatic Stabilizers and the Budget Balance, 20092013 Federal Budget Deficit as a Percent of GDP 12 10 8 Automatic Stabilizers 6 4 Structural Component 2 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts; Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024. 102 | Chapter 3
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
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C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
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economic report of the president To
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year-old. In the meantime, I’m go
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the annual report of the council of
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C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1. PROMOTIN
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APPENDIX 1: COMPONENTS OF THE RECOV
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THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S RECORD
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2.15. Housing Starts, 1960-2013....
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3.1. Forecasted and Actual Real GDP
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C H A P T E R 1 PROMOTING OPPORTUNI
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Opportunity, Growth, and Security i
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crisis—continue to rebound and co
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Figure 1-4 Real GDP Per Working-Age
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Figure 1-6 Change in Poverty Rate F
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Figure 1-7 Domestic Crude Oil Produ
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Figure 1-8 Growth in Real Per Capit
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Figure 1-9 Unemployment Rate by Dur
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e needed to make up for a decades-l
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Annual percent change 2.50 15-year
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Figure 1-14 Share of National Incom
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Along with steps that create jobs,
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corner, with purchases increasing d
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the four quarters of 2013, or enoug
Page 55 and 56: Percent of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -
Page 57 and 58: Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Figure 2-3
Page 59 and 60: In the euro area, the unemployment
Page 61 and 62: Figure 2-6 Cumulative Flows into Mu
Page 63 and 64: Figure 2-7 Household Deleveraging,
Page 65 and 66: Box 2-1: The 2013 Comprehensive Rev
Page 67 and 68: Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Figure 2
Page 69 and 70: Figure 2-11 State and Local Pension
Page 71 and 72: Percent of GDP 2 1 0 Figure 2-14 Cu
Page 73 and 74: Box 2-2. Administration Trade Polic
Page 75 and 76: Upon completion, the TPP and T-TIP
Page 77 and 78: percent of households report that i
Page 79 and 80: Figure 2-18 Petroleum Net Imports,
Page 81 and 82: Figure 2-21 U.S. Per Capita Consump
Page 83 and 84: Percent 11 Figure 2-22 Unemployment
Page 85 and 86: Figure 2-25 Predicted vs. Actual Ma
Page 87 and 88: Box 2-4: Unemployment Duration and
Page 89 and 90: The Long-Term Outlook The 11-Year F
Page 91 and 92: Growth in GDP over the Long Term As
Page 93 and 94: Box 2-5: Immigration Reform and Pot
Page 95 and 96: Even with this growth, however, the
Page 97 and 98: families. The other half was for in
Page 99 and 100: ecause of rapidly declining stock a
Page 101 and 102: Obama Administration and the 111th
Page 103 and 104: Figure 3-1 Recovery Act Programs by
Page 105: other cases, new measures expanded
Page 109 and 110: Box 3-1: Other Administration Polic
Page 111 and 112: challenges, and how economists have
Page 113 and 114: Table 3-5 Estimated Output Multipli
Page 115 and 116: Figure 3-7 Quarterly Effect of the
Page 117 and 118: Table 3-6 Estimates of the Effects
Page 119 and 120: International Comparison The 2008 c
Page 121 and 122: Box 3-2: The U.S. Recovery in Compa
Page 123 and 124: Table 3-7 Tax Relief and Income Sup
Page 125 and 126: traditionally been jointly financed
Page 127 and 128: downturn in the economy. Even thoug
Page 129 and 130: Figure 3-11 Recovery Act Cumulative
Page 131 and 132: The Recovery Act also invested in r
Page 133 and 134: helped individuals who chose to ret
Page 135 and 136: the period, even though total power
Page 137 and 138: average—then the resulting increa
Page 139 and 140: Alternative Minimum Tax relief, bus
Page 141 and 142: Through the end of a Individual Tax
Page 143 and 144: y Poterba (1994), states and locali
Page 145 and 146: Table 3-11 Fiscal Support for the E
Page 147 and 148: spells. Because the resulting unemp
Page 149 and 150: literature uses two different appro
Page 151 and 152: Table 3-12 Summary of Cross-Section
Page 153 and 154: the CMS projections show real per-c
Page 155 and 156: will accrue to workers as higher wa
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Box 4-1: Two Measures of Growth in
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Figure 4-1 Growth in Real Per Capit
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in particular may not exactly track
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find that even those seniors who di
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the slowdown in real (that is, infl
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health care costs for an individual
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estimate for the ACA found that its
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Figure 4-4 Medicare 30-Day, All-Con
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agreements among the providers them
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payment for physician services, the
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Box 4-3: The Cost Slowdown and ACA
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2010a; 2011; 2012c; 2013a; 2014), w
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Figure 4-6 Recent CBO Projections o
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Conclusion The evidence is clear th
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facilitated this private-sector tec
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esulting gap between the actual gro
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Table 5-1 Sources of Productivity I
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Table 5-2 Nonfarm Private Business
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of the productivity improvement res
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Figure 5-3 Growth in Productivity a
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improving and college completion ra
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Box 5-2: Does Inequality Affect Pro
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Percent 3.5 Figure 5-5 Composition
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• Just two of the largest U.S. te
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Box 5-3: Just-in-Time Manufacturing
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Figure 5-7 Exclusive and Shared All
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Box 5-4: Spectrum Investment Polici
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To stimulate investment in more adv
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Because current uses of technology
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Box 5-5: Electronic Health Records
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about the array of services and sup
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and, in such cases, provides partie
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Box 5-6: The Leahy-Smith America In
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Box 5-7: Pay-For-Delay Settlements
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C H A P T E R 6 THE WAR ON POVERTY
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Measuring Poverty: Who is Poor in A
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thresholds ever since. These dollar
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of necessary items, including food,
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Table 6-1 Poverty Rates by Selected
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Box 6-3: Women and Poverty While wo
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However, this reflects smaller decl
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Percent 25 Figure 6-1 Trends in the
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Box 6-4: Social Programs Serve All
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of low- and middle-income workers a
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particularly valuable since they es
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Figure 6-4 Official vs Anchored Sup
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deep market poverty driven by the b
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work: in 2010, for example, unemplo
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out of poverty through job training
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e noted that researchers have found
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2012). Among the children of low-ea
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Education appears to be one of the
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Friedman, and Rockoff (2011) find t
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including an additional $25 a week
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Figure 6-11 Recovery Act and Subseq
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Empowering Every Child with a Quali
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modernize America’s high schools
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low-income Americans and their chil
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C H A P T E R 7 EVALUATION AS A TOO
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program evaluation efforts. For exa
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went to preschool would have had if
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y adopting successful interventions
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Box 7-2: Using Behavioral Economics
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Box 7-3: “Rapid Cycle” Evaluati
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Figure 7-1 Outlays for Grants to St
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performance data, fewer than half o
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Investment Act programs. The PROMIS
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Figure 7-2 Inventory of Beds for Ho
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example, included a nondiscretionar
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Other benefits of considering evalu
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with the treatment effect and thus
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unemployment insurance wage and ben
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hard for researchers to access for
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REFERENCES Chapter 1 Almunia, Migue
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____. 2014. “Press Release: Janua
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and the TPP at the Peterson Institu
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Increase Employment Evidence from t
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___. 2010b. “The Economic Impact
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___. 2012. World Economic Outlook A
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Polak Annual Research Conference. W
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Baicker, Katherine and Amitabh Chan
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Daly, Mary, Bart Hobijn, and Brian
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Nominal Wages,” International Jou
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Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Revie
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Chien, Colleen V. 2012. “Reformin
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GAO (Government Accountability Offi
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Jorgenson, Dale. 2001. “Informati
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Integration in Economic Development
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_____. 2007. “Improving the Safet
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Dahl, Gordon B. and Lance Lochner.
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Heckman, James J. and Dimitriy V. M
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Ludwig, Jens and Douglas Miller. 20
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Sharkey, Patrick. 2009. “Neighbor
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_____. 2013. “Practical Evaluatio
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www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/comm
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Stock, James H., and Mark Watson. 2
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letter of transmittal Council of Ec
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Council Members and Their Dates of
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The Members of the Council Betsey S
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Act has had on reducing health care
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Statistical Office The Statistical
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A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
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INTEREST RATES, MONEY STOCK, AND GO
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2013-to-2014 TABLE NUMBER MATCH 201
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Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
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Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
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Table B-3. Quantity and price index
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Table B-5. Real exports and imports
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Year Total 2 Table B-7. Real farm i
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Table B-9. Median money income (in
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Year or month Civilian noninstituti
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Year or month All civilian workers
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Table B-15. Hours and earnings in p
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Year and month Interest Rates, Mone
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Year and month Table B-18. Money st
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Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-22. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-24. State and local governm
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End of month Table B-26. Estimated
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B-7. Chain-type price indexes for g
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B-28. National income by type of in
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B-48. Employment cost index, privat
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B-65. Producer price indexes by sta
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B-81. Federal receipts, outlays, su
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B-99. Farm output and productivity
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B-111. International reserves Inter
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