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also worked on several issues related to the quality of the data available for assessing economic conditions. The Council prepares for the President, the Vice President, and the White House senior staff a daily economic briefing memo analyzing current economic developments and almost-daily memos on key economic data releases. Chairman Furman also presents a monthly briefing on the state of the economy and the Council’s energy analysis to senior White House officials. The Council, the Department of Treasury, and the Office of Management and Budget—the Administration’s economic “troika”— are responsible for producing the economic forecasts that underlie the Administration’s budget proposals. The Council initiates the forecasting process twice each year, consulting with a wide variety of outside sources, including leading private sector forecasters and other government agencies. The Council was an active participant in the trade policy process, participating in the Trade Policy Staff Committee and the Trade Policy Review Group. The Council provided analysis and opinions on a range of trade-related issues involving the enforcement of existing trade agreements, reviews of current U.S. trade policies, and consideration of future policies. The Council also participated on the Trade Promotion Coordinating Committee, helping to examine the ways in which exports may support economic growth in the years to come. In the area of investment and security, the Council participated on the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), reviewing individual cases before the committee. The Council is a leading participant in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), an important forum for economic cooperation among high-income industrial economies. The Council coordinated and oversaw the OECD’s review of the U.S. economy. Chairman Furman is chairman of the OECD’s Economic Policy Committee, and Council Members and staff participate actively in working-party meetings on macroeconomic policy and coordination and contribute to the OECD’s research agenda. The Council issued a wide range of reports in 2013 and early 2014. In June, the Council released a report assessing the economic benefits of reforming US’s “broken immigration system.” In October, the Council released a report analyzing the negative impact that the government shutdown and debt limit brinksmanship had on the economy. Also in October, the Council released a report describing why the US provides such an attractive investment climate for firms across the globe and how this is beneficial to the US. In November, the Council released a report analyzing the recent health care cost trends in addition to the contributions the Affordable Care Activities of the Council of Economic Advisers During 2013 | 353
Act has had on reducing health care cost growth. In December, the Council worked with the Department of Labor to study the benefits of extending unemployment insurance. In January 2014, the Council released a progress report on the “War on Poverty” that Lyndon B. Johnson declared 50 years prior. In February 2014, the Council transmitted the final report on the fifth Anniversary of the Recovery Act to Congress. All of the aforementioned reports can be found on the Council’s website, and some of them are incorporated into this annual report as well. (http://www.whitehouse.gov/ administration/eop/cea/factsheets-reports.) The Council continued its efforts to improve the public’s understanding of economic developments and of the Administration’s economic policies through briefings with the economic and financial press, speeches, discussions with outside economists, and regular updates on major data releases and postings of CEA’s Reports on the White House and CEA blogs. The Chairman and Members also regularly met to exchange views on the economy with the Chairman and Members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Public Information The Council’s annual Economic Report of the President is an important vehicle for presenting the Administration’s domestic and international economic policies. It is available for purchase through the Government Printing Office, and is viewable on the Internet at www.gpo.gov/erp. The Council frequently prepared reports and blog posts in 2013, and the Chairman and Members gave numerous public speeches. The reports, posts and texts of speeches are available at the Council’s website, www. whitehouse.gov/cea. Finally, the Council published the monthly Economic Indicators, which is available online at www.gpo.gov/economicindicators. The Staff of the Council of Economic Advisers The staff of the Council consists of the senior staff, senior economists, economists, staff economists, research economists, a research assistant, and the administrative and support staff. The staff at the end of 2013 was: Senior Staff Jessica Schumer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Chief of Staff Steven N. Braun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Director of Macroeconomic Forecasting Alexander G. Krulic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . General Counsel 354 | Appendix A
Page 1 and 2:
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
Page 4:
C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
Page 8 and 9:
economic report of the president To
Page 10 and 11:
year-old. In the meantime, I’m go
Page 12:
the annual report of the council of
Page 16 and 17:
C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1. PROMOTIN
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APPENDIX 1: COMPONENTS OF THE RECOV
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THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S RECORD
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2.15. Housing Starts, 1960-2013....
Page 24 and 25:
3.1. Forecasted and Actual Real GDP
Page 26 and 27:
C H A P T E R 1 PROMOTING OPPORTUNI
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Opportunity, Growth, and Security i
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crisis—continue to rebound and co
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Figure 1-4 Real GDP Per Working-Age
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Figure 1-6 Change in Poverty Rate F
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Figure 1-7 Domestic Crude Oil Produ
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Figure 1-8 Growth in Real Per Capit
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Figure 1-9 Unemployment Rate by Dur
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e needed to make up for a decades-l
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Annual percent change 2.50 15-year
Page 46 and 47:
Figure 1-14 Share of National Incom
Page 48:
Along with steps that create jobs,
Page 51 and 52:
corner, with purchases increasing d
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the four quarters of 2013, or enoug
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Percent of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -
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Percent 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Figure 2-3
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In the euro area, the unemployment
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Figure 2-6 Cumulative Flows into Mu
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Figure 2-7 Household Deleveraging,
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Box 2-1: The 2013 Comprehensive Rev
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Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Figure 2
Page 69 and 70:
Figure 2-11 State and Local Pension
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Percent of GDP 2 1 0 Figure 2-14 Cu
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Box 2-2. Administration Trade Polic
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Upon completion, the TPP and T-TIP
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percent of households report that i
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Figure 2-18 Petroleum Net Imports,
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Figure 2-21 U.S. Per Capita Consump
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Percent 11 Figure 2-22 Unemployment
Page 85 and 86:
Figure 2-25 Predicted vs. Actual Ma
Page 87 and 88:
Box 2-4: Unemployment Duration and
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The Long-Term Outlook The 11-Year F
Page 91 and 92:
Growth in GDP over the Long Term As
Page 93 and 94:
Box 2-5: Immigration Reform and Pot
Page 95 and 96:
Even with this growth, however, the
Page 97 and 98:
families. The other half was for in
Page 99 and 100:
ecause of rapidly declining stock a
Page 101 and 102:
Obama Administration and the 111th
Page 103 and 104:
Figure 3-1 Recovery Act Programs by
Page 105 and 106:
other cases, new measures expanded
Page 107 and 108:
Figure 3-2 Recovery Act and Subsequ
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Box 3-1: Other Administration Polic
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challenges, and how economists have
Page 113 and 114:
Table 3-5 Estimated Output Multipli
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Figure 3-7 Quarterly Effect of the
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Table 3-6 Estimates of the Effects
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International Comparison The 2008 c
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Box 3-2: The U.S. Recovery in Compa
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Table 3-7 Tax Relief and Income Sup
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traditionally been jointly financed
Page 127 and 128:
downturn in the economy. Even thoug
Page 129 and 130:
Figure 3-11 Recovery Act Cumulative
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The Recovery Act also invested in r
Page 133 and 134:
helped individuals who chose to ret
Page 135 and 136:
the period, even though total power
Page 137 and 138:
average—then the resulting increa
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Alternative Minimum Tax relief, bus
Page 141 and 142:
Through the end of a Individual Tax
Page 143 and 144:
y Poterba (1994), states and locali
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Table 3-11 Fiscal Support for the E
Page 147 and 148:
spells. Because the resulting unemp
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literature uses two different appro
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Table 3-12 Summary of Cross-Section
Page 153 and 154:
the CMS projections show real per-c
Page 155 and 156:
will accrue to workers as higher wa
Page 157 and 158:
Box 4-1: Two Measures of Growth in
Page 159 and 160:
Figure 4-1 Growth in Real Per Capit
Page 161 and 162:
in particular may not exactly track
Page 163 and 164:
find that even those seniors who di
Page 165 and 166:
the slowdown in real (that is, infl
Page 167 and 168:
health care costs for an individual
Page 169 and 170:
estimate for the ACA found that its
Page 171 and 172:
Figure 4-4 Medicare 30-Day, All-Con
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agreements among the providers them
Page 175 and 176:
payment for physician services, the
Page 177 and 178:
Box 4-3: The Cost Slowdown and ACA
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2010a; 2011; 2012c; 2013a; 2014), w
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Figure 4-6 Recent CBO Projections o
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Conclusion The evidence is clear th
Page 185 and 186:
facilitated this private-sector tec
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esulting gap between the actual gro
Page 189 and 190:
Table 5-1 Sources of Productivity I
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Table 5-2 Nonfarm Private Business
Page 193 and 194:
of the productivity improvement res
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Figure 5-3 Growth in Productivity a
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improving and college completion ra
Page 199 and 200:
Box 5-2: Does Inequality Affect Pro
Page 201 and 202:
Percent 3.5 Figure 5-5 Composition
Page 203 and 204:
• Just two of the largest U.S. te
Page 205 and 206:
Box 5-3: Just-in-Time Manufacturing
Page 207 and 208:
Figure 5-7 Exclusive and Shared All
Page 209 and 210:
Box 5-4: Spectrum Investment Polici
Page 211 and 212:
To stimulate investment in more adv
Page 213 and 214:
Because current uses of technology
Page 215 and 216:
Box 5-5: Electronic Health Records
Page 217 and 218:
about the array of services and sup
Page 219 and 220:
and, in such cases, provides partie
Page 221 and 222:
Box 5-6: The Leahy-Smith America In
Page 223 and 224:
Box 5-7: Pay-For-Delay Settlements
Page 226 and 227:
C H A P T E R 6 THE WAR ON POVERTY
Page 228 and 229:
Measuring Poverty: Who is Poor in A
Page 230 and 231:
thresholds ever since. These dollar
Page 232 and 233:
of necessary items, including food,
Page 234 and 235:
Table 6-1 Poverty Rates by Selected
Page 236 and 237:
Box 6-3: Women and Poverty While wo
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However, this reflects smaller decl
Page 240 and 241:
Percent 25 Figure 6-1 Trends in the
Page 242 and 243:
Box 6-4: Social Programs Serve All
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of low- and middle-income workers a
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particularly valuable since they es
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Figure 6-4 Official vs Anchored Sup
Page 250 and 251:
deep market poverty driven by the b
Page 252 and 253:
work: in 2010, for example, unemplo
Page 254 and 255:
out of poverty through job training
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e noted that researchers have found
Page 258 and 259:
2012). Among the children of low-ea
Page 260 and 261:
Education appears to be one of the
Page 262 and 263:
Friedman, and Rockoff (2011) find t
Page 264 and 265:
including an additional $25 a week
Page 266 and 267:
Figure 6-11 Recovery Act and Subseq
Page 268 and 269:
Empowering Every Child with a Quali
Page 270 and 271:
modernize America’s high schools
Page 272 and 273:
low-income Americans and their chil
Page 274 and 275:
C H A P T E R 7 EVALUATION AS A TOO
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program evaluation efforts. For exa
Page 278 and 279:
went to preschool would have had if
Page 280 and 281:
y adopting successful interventions
Page 282 and 283:
Box 7-2: Using Behavioral Economics
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Box 7-3: “Rapid Cycle” Evaluati
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Figure 7-1 Outlays for Grants to St
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performance data, fewer than half o
Page 290 and 291:
Investment Act programs. The PROMIS
Page 292 and 293:
Figure 7-2 Inventory of Beds for Ho
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example, included a nondiscretionar
Page 296 and 297:
Other benefits of considering evalu
Page 298 and 299:
with the treatment effect and thus
Page 300 and 301:
unemployment insurance wage and ben
Page 302 and 303:
hard for researchers to access for
Page 304 and 305:
REFERENCES Chapter 1 Almunia, Migue
Page 306 and 307:
____. 2014. “Press Release: Janua
Page 308 and 309: and the TPP at the Peterson Institu
Page 310 and 311: Increase Employment Evidence from t
Page 312 and 313: ___. 2010b. “The Economic Impact
Page 314 and 315: ___. 2012. World Economic Outlook A
Page 316 and 317: Polak Annual Research Conference. W
Page 318 and 319: Baicker, Katherine and Amitabh Chan
Page 320 and 321: Daly, Mary, Bart Hobijn, and Brian
Page 322 and 323: Nominal Wages,” International Jou
Page 324 and 325: Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Revie
Page 326 and 327: Chien, Colleen V. 2012. “Reformin
Page 328 and 329: GAO (Government Accountability Offi
Page 330 and 331: Jorgenson, Dale. 2001. “Informati
Page 332 and 333: Integration in Economic Development
Page 334 and 335: _____. 2007. “Improving the Safet
Page 336 and 337: Dahl, Gordon B. and Lance Lochner.
Page 338 and 339: Heckman, James J. and Dimitriy V. M
Page 340 and 341: Ludwig, Jens and Douglas Miller. 20
Page 342 and 343: Sharkey, Patrick. 2009. “Neighbor
Page 344 and 345: _____. 2013. “Practical Evaluatio
Page 346 and 347: www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/comm
Page 348: Stock, James H., and Mark Watson. 2
Page 352 and 353: letter of transmittal Council of Ec
Page 354: Council Members and Their Dates of
Page 357: The Members of the Council Betsey S
Page 361 and 362: Statistical Office The Statistical
Page 364: A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
Page 367 and 368: INTEREST RATES, MONEY STOCK, AND GO
Page 369 and 370: 2013-to-2014 TABLE NUMBER MATCH 201
Page 371 and 372: Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
Page 373 and 374: Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
Page 375 and 376: Table B-3. Quantity and price index
Page 377 and 378: Table B-5. Real exports and imports
Page 379 and 380: Year Total 2 Table B-7. Real farm i
Page 381 and 382: Table B-9. Median money income (in
Page 383 and 384: Year or month Civilian noninstituti
Page 385 and 386: Year or month All civilian workers
Page 387 and 388: Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
Page 389 and 390: Table B-15. Hours and earnings in p
Page 391 and 392: Year and month Interest Rates, Mone
Page 393 and 394: Year and month Table B-18. Money st
Page 395 and 396: Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
Page 397 and 398: Table B-22. Federal receipts, outla
Page 399 and 400: Table B-24. State and local governm
Page 401 and 402: End of month Table B-26. Estimated
Page 403 and 404: B-7. Chain-type price indexes for g
Page 405 and 406: B-28. National income by type of in
Page 407 and 408: B-48. Employment cost index, privat
Page 409 and 410:
B-65. Producer price indexes by sta
Page 411 and 412:
B-81. Federal receipts, outlays, su
Page 413 and 414:
B-99. Farm output and productivity
Page 415:
B-111. International reserves Inter
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