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Challenges to Macroeconomic projections Risks to the Economy Slower recovery in trading partners will lead to lower demand for exports, lower workers remittances Delay in donor support will delay countercyclical fiscal policy (US$ 5.7 bill.) High commodity prices Adverse security environment FBR revenues-VAT 82
Pressing Macroeconomic Issues • High Trade Deficit and Rising CAD – Poor export performance, paying price for heavy reliance on textile; – The export to import ratio declined from 56% to 48%; 83
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ASIM MAJID KHAN Chief Instructor, N
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Additions to GDP - Various Periods
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• LICENCING SYSTEM, OFFICIAL EXCH
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• GREEN REVOLUTION SEEDS, FERTILI
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Bhutto and Socialism 1971--77 • G
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ZIA 1977 -- 1988 • GDP GROWTH 6%
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THE LOST DECADE 1989--1999 • GDP
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Macroeconomic Performance in Pakist
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1999-2007 MAJOR ECONOMIC REFORMS 17
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Investment rate started declining a
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Yearly Changes in Net Credit to The
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The country remained vulnerable to
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Development Spending (Billion $) 3.
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Installed capacity (MW) 27
Page 29 and 30:
Recent economic downturn 29
Page 31 and 32: Oil Import Bill ($ Billion) -12.0 3
Page 33 and 34: Foreign Investment (US $ million) F
Page 35 and 36: Debt servicing (Rs millions) 35
Page 37 and 38: PUBLIC DEBT (As % of GDP) 60.0 37
Page 39 and 40: Progress is Reflected in the Rating
Page 41 and 42: SUMMARY OF FEDERAL BUDGETARY POSITI
Page 43 and 44: o Indirect Taxes Stamp Duty Motor
Page 45 and 46: Growth in Fiscal Sector Variables (
Page 47 and 48: Structure of Federal Taxes Year FBR
Page 49 and 50: Relatively Recent Macroeconomic Per
Page 51 and 52: REVENUE, EXPENDITURE AND DEFICIT SI
Page 53 and 54: Challenges After a period of reaso
Page 55 and 56: Macroeconomic Challenges Growth De
Page 57 and 58: Measures to Regain Macroeconomic St
Page 59 and 60: Source: World Bank 59 59
Page 61 and 62: Pakistan is assured of a Demographi
Page 63 and 64: Emergence of a strong middle class
Page 65 and 66: Per Capita Income ($) 65
Page 67 and 68: Workers’ Remittances ($ Million)
Page 69 and 70: • Pillar IV: Financial Sector Dee
Page 71 and 72: • Eliminate subsidies • Ensure
Page 73 and 74: FISCAL CHALLENGES 73
Page 75 and 76: Structure of Expenditure (% Share)
Page 77 and 78: Structure of Current Expenditure (%
Page 79 and 80: Revenue collection lacks vigor; Ex
Page 81: Medium Term Challenges (Cont…) -
Page 85 and 86: REVENUE GENERATION AND ITS CHALLENG
Page 87 and 88: Export Side • Narrow concentratio
Page 89: TRADE BREAKUP World vs Pakistan-200
Page 95 and 96: Collection Collection Growth Growth
Page 97: Tax Heads Q1: 10-11 Q1: 09-10 Growt
Page 100 and 101: 100
Page 102 and 103: July - September No of No of Filers
Page 104 and 105: PCT Description CD Collection July-
Page 106 and 107: DOMESTIC CHALLENGES 106
Page 108 and 109: • Pakistan has extreme poverty co
Page 110 and 111: INVESTMENT CHALLENGES AND BUSINESS
Page 112 and 113: • Low participation of women in e
Page 114 and 115: Policy Roadmap For The Next Five Ye
Page 116 and 117: • Youth has to be facilitated on
Page 118 and 119: • Water resources and energy reso
Page 120 and 121: All new projects as well as old ind
Page 122 and 123: Development needs should be shifted
Page 124 and 125: • New laws to be enacted based on
Page 126 and 127: PUBLIC Enterprise Reform and Privat
Page 128 and 129: • Improved and wider markets for
Page 130 and 131: Economic vision should include 1. F
Page 132 and 133:
Second generation reforms Strengthe
Page 134 and 135:
System
Page 136 and 137:
Why Institutional is more imp than
Page 138 and 139:
The Accountability Framework
Page 140 and 141:
Movement And Performance
Page 142 and 143:
Indicators
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IN A NUTSHELL… VISION SKILLS MOTI
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Thankyou 146
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