D.3.3 ALGORITHMS FOR INCREMENTAL ... - SecureChange

24 F. Massacci and L.M.S. Tran
analysis rather than empirical observations in an industrial application, they confirmed
the premise of the key to successfully change is knowledge about “where
the enterprise is currently”, “where the enterprise wished to be in the future”, and
“alternative designs” for the desired future state.
Nurcan and others [24, 25, 30] presented the Enterprise Knowledge Development
- Change Management Method (EKD-CMM) which was used in the ELEK-
TRA project [26]. The main goal of EKD-CMM is to provide a framework to
understand the way a specific organization works, determine the reasons and requirements
for changes, alternatives to address the requirements, and the criteria
for the evaluation of the alternatives. The application of the EKD-CMM results in
three models, namely the As-Is-Model, the To-Be-Model and the Change Process
Model. Also discussed on EKD-CMM, Barrios and Nurcan [4, 23] mentioned a
critical need for realistic representations of “what are the current or future business
situations”, or what should be changed in today enterprise. They provided a
roadmap for EKD-CMM as a systematic way to deal with enterprise modeling and
transformation. Enterprise objectives (or enterprise goals), processes, and systems
are integrated in a single modeling framework using three-layer model.
Other notable works include Dalal et al [8] and Kassem et al [13]. Dalal et al, in
their article [8] identified four gaps related to EM methods. Among those, one serious
gap is a lack of a formal theory enabling quantitative analysis in the interests
of making better business decisions. Our proposal of the quantitative metrics of
MaxBelief and Residual Risks directly addresses this issue. In [13], Kassem et al.
presented guidelines for the selection of the right modeling method, and proposed
a methodology for Enterprise Modeling. They found that the selection should be
a function of: the purpose, the ease of communication between stakeholders, the
characteristic of the modeling environment and the characteristic of the modeling
technique itself. The methodology is based on the combined use of IDEF0 and
Dependency Structure Matrix (DSM) to produce functional requirements for the
collaborative software. This methodology hence is capable to understand complex
interactions, facilitate the management of change, and create a shared vision of
business processes. However, the authors did not focus on any further analysis for
change management.
10 Conclusion
In this work we have addressed the issues of modeling evolutions of enterprise
systems. In particular, we focused on potential evolutions which can be foreseen,
but it is not sure that these evolutions do actually happen. We called this problem
managing known unknown.
Our proposed approach introduces the notion of evolution rules, comprising of
observable and controllable rules, as a mechanism for handling this phenomenon.
The uncertainty of evolution is expressed using probability values represent expertise
beliefs on the occurrence of evolutions, which is accounted using gametheoretic
approach. Additionally, we provided a brief discussion about the graphical
notion for representing these rules, which has been validated with ATM experts.
Furthermore, based on that belief, we introduce two quantitative metrics to