D.3.3 ALGORITHMS FOR INCREMENTAL ... - SecureChange

Noname manuscript No.
(will be inserted by the editor)
Dealing with Known Unknowns: A Goal-based
Approach for Understanding Complex Systems
Evolution ⋆
Fabio MASSACCI, Le Minh Sang TRAN
Università degli Studi di Trento, I-38100 Trento, Italy
e-mail: surname@disi.unitn.it
The date of receipt and acceptance will be inserted by the editor
Abstract Enterprises must cope with evolution to addresses changing business
objectives, changing regulations and changing threats. In many cases such changes
are not completely unknown: the ongoing discussion of a standard body can show
that 2-3 proposals might emerge, albeit might not be clear which one will finally
win.
In this paper we tackle the fundamental issue of modeling and reasoning about
the future evolution of the business and security goals of an organization in presence
of uncertainty of known outcomes.
This work describes a generic approach explicitly representing goal evolutions
in terms of controllable and observable rules and in which probability estimates
can be validated by a game-theoretic semantics between stakeholders and nature.
In this setting it is important to identify which are the business activities that
must be implemented to guarantee the best chances of success (maximum belief)
or minimize the risk of wasting money (residual risk). We specialize the set-up
for a goal-based language where we provide a graphical language but also efficient
algorithm that allows to reason about the unrolling of probabilities without a
combinatorial explosion.
In order to illustrate the applicability of the approach we discuss a case study
from Air Traffic Management for the deployment of AMAN in air-traffic control
procedures.
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It is an extended and revised version of [38]. It is partly supported by the European
Commission under projects EU-FET-IP-SECURECHANGE, and EU-IP-NESSOS.
We would like to thank F. Paci at the University of Trento, A. Tedeschi, V. Meduri, M.
Felici, S. Pozzi at DBL Srl and the other participants to the ATM validation sessions for
many useful comments. The numbers presented in this paper are only provided as examples
and do not represent in any way the opinion of the experts’ organizations.