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Urban world 6. Sustainable and resilient urbanization will be instrumental to the world’s future prospects While urbanization affords economic opportunity, it also presents significant resource risks. Rapid urbanization is contributing to global resource depletion, while some of the effects of climate change (e.g., rising sea levels around coastal cities and extreme weather events) will hit cities hardest. The World Health Organization (WHO) reports that 7 million people died — one in eight of total global deaths — as a result of air pollution exposure in 2012, a large proportion residing in urban areas. 5 Roughly 50% of the urban population being monitored (which is just 12% of the total global urban population) is exposed to air pollution that is at least 2.5 times higher than WHO recommended levels. 6 Local and national policy-makers, along with other important stakeholders, will need to work closely together to plan, build and govern more sustainable cities. “Green” and “smart” will become important features of the sustainable and competitive city. Green cities will have energy-efficient buildings, reduced waste and rely heavily on renewable energy sources and energyefficient transportation systems. Enabled by digital, competitive cities will also make use of state-of-the-art information and communication technology (ICT) to build smart mobility solutions, smart grids and other solutions. 70 % of primary energy consumption and 80 % of global greenhouse gas (GhG) emissions ... ... are derived from cities, while up to 80% of the US$100b per year in climate-adaptation costs will be assumed by urban areas. Source: “Global Dialogue on Climate Resilient Cities,” World Bank Climate Change Practice, May 2011. ICT-enabled solutions offer the potential to reduce annual emissions by an estimated 9.1 gigatons of greenhouse gases by 2020, which represents 16.5% of the projected total in 2020. Source: GeSI SMARTer: The Role of ICT in Driving a Sustainable Future, Global e-Sustainability Initiative and Boston Consulting Group, December 2012. 36 Megatrends 2015 Making sense of a world in motion
7. Truly sustainable cities must also target urban poverty and marginalized populations Nearly 1 billion people currently live in slums: • 62% of Sub-Saharan Africa • 43% of South Asia • 37% of East Asia • 27% of Latin America and the Caribbean Source: United Nations. over the next 15 years, the number of global slum dwellers is expected to double to 2 billion people. Source: Naison Mutizwa-Mangiza, Sustainable Urbanization in the Post-2015 UN Development Agenda, Experts Group meeting on the Post-2015 UN Development Agenda, UN Habitat, 27–29 February, 2012. While urban areas are projected to grow more affluent on the whole, cities will also face significant social problems — including the fact that not all citizens are reaping the positive aspects of urbanization. A negative byproduct of rapid urbanization is unplanned growth. Local municipal governments struggle to provide the basic requirements — adequate food, water, health care, and shelter — to slums and informal settlements, many of which are located in cities in the developing world. Nearly 1 billion people currently live in slums, most of whom are located in emerging countries. But urban poverty is not reserved for just rapid-growth markets. For example, the 100 largest metro areas in the US are home to 70% of the country’s economically distressed census areas. 7 The urban poor bear the brunt of traffic congestion, air pollution, crime and unsafe food and water supplies. The fact that the slum-dwelling global population could double over the next 15 years is a strong call for action. Truly sustainable cities must include effective planning, policy making, job-creation, institution-building, investment and governance to target and relieve urban poverty. Megatrends 2015 Making sense of a world in motion 37
Page 1 and 2: Megatrends 2015 Making sense of a w
Page 3 and 4: Welcome At EY, we describe megatren
Page 5 and 6: Each megatrend is important in its
Page 7 and 8: major hub. In the global marketplac
Page 9 and 10: 1Digital future Fueled by the conve
Page 11 and 12: 2. Declining PC usage and increasin
Page 13 and 14: 4. Digital disruption is changing t
Page 15 and 16: 6. Workstyles and the means to enga
Page 17 and 18: 2Entrepreneurship rising The growth
Page 19 and 20: 2. High-impact entrepreneurs will c
Page 21 and 22: 4. The face of entrepreneurship is
Page 23 and 24: 6. Access to funding remains the bi
Page 25 and 26: 3Global marketplace will continue t
Page 27 and 28: 2. Trade-flow patterns will undergo
Page 29 and 30: 4. The growing global middle class
Page 31 and 32: 6. The war for talent grows increas
Page 33 and 34: 4Urban world The number and scale o
Page 35 and 36: 2. Demographic patterns will help s
Page 37: 5. An urban world requires major in
Page 41 and 42: 5Resourceful planet Absolute popula
Page 43 and 44: Over the next 20 years 2. Increasin
Page 45 and 46: The cost of adapting to climate cha
Page 47 and 48: 6Health reimagined Health care —
Page 49 and 50: 2. Incidence of chronic disease wil
Page 51 and 52: 5. Genetic and genomic information
Page 53 and 54: 3Global marketplace 1. “The super
Page 55 and 56: Megatrends 2015 Making sense of a w

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