eu-europol-org-crime-report

Increased competition
for natural resources
28
OCGs will increasingly
attempt to infiltrate industries
depending on natural resources
to act as brokers or agents in the
trade with natural resources.
Fuelling the future of organised
crime
With a significant rate of population growth
and increasing per head consumption of
energy, food and goods, countries around the
world will find their access to natural resources
increasingly limited. The infiltration of
multi-national companies may enable OCGs
to control access to natural resources and
generate unprecedented profits. Some markets
for essential natural resources are dominated
by monopolies or oligopolies, which amplifies
the potential threat posed by OCG infiltration
of these market-dominating global corporations.
Most natural resources are found outside
the EU, so EU-based OCGs may not directly
control these resources, but may find niches
for themselves by increasingly acting as brokers
or agents, for example for companies seeking
drilling rights or access to pipelines.
Oil
A race has begun for control over resources
in the Arctic Ocean and Antarctica. Access to
the Antarctic region is currently governed by
the Antarctic Treaty, which came into force in
1961 and protects the continent as a scientific
preserve. The Treaty will expire in 2048 and it
is possible that energy-hungry countries will
opt not to renew it and instead compete for
the extraction of a projected 200 billion barrels
of oil. Access to oil reserves in the South China
Sea is also currently hotly contested between
the Chinese and Vietnamese governments and
this dispute is expected to continue.
OCGs will seek out various opportunities to
become involved in this sector. Increasing oil
prices will make oil siphoning from pipelines,
filtering or washing of industrial grade diesel
for road use, VAT and excise frauds profitable
activities for OCGs. They will also increasingly
engage in cybercrime in attempts to gain
control over critical infrastructures. Some
OCGs are already involved in these activities.
However, in the future, it is expected that many
more OCGs will seek to enter and intensify their
involvement in this sector resulting in increased
competition between groups.
International oil companies are already exploring
oil reserves in the Balkans and the deep
trench basins surrounding the continent of
Africa. High levels of corruption in both regions
provide fertile ground for OCGs to infiltrate the
supply and maintenance of pipelines and other
types of infrastructure.
Gas
Similar to oil, gas is a highly valuable commodity.
Natural gas reserves are being tapped with new
'fracking' 24 technology, which has led to a glut
and low prices, especially in the United States.
Liquid natural gas cannot be transported easily;
large infrastructure projects in the United States
aim to facilitate the transportation and export
of liquid natural gas by train and ship. OCGs may
become involved in the building and maintenance
of this infrastructure in order to control
access to and supply of critical resources. Ports
are particularly at risk of OCG infiltration and
there have been precedents of these activities
such as the Camorra’s control over the port of
Gioia Tauro in Calabria, Italy.
Energy security has emerged as a significant
concern to the EU and its Member States are
exploring alternative sources of energy in
response. The United States have committed
themselves to establishing the infrastructure
necessary to export liquid natural gas in the
event of a complete pipeline shut-off as soon as
possible.
EUROPOL / Exploring tomorrow’s organised crime / 2015