eu-europol-org-crime-report

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Trafficking in human beings
Trafficking in human beings is one of the oldest
criminal activities and will remain a significant
source of revenue for OCGs in Europe. The
persisting demand for ever-cheaper goods and
services, combined with intensified competition
between suppliers, drives down prices
and creates new opportunities for exploitation.
The demand for cheap goods will lead to the
increased exploitation of victims on the regular
labour market. OCGs will increasingly use
legal business structures and sub-contractor
arrangements to facilitate illicit employment
and exploitation.
OCGs will continue to target vulnerable groups
in society for trafficking to Member States with
a large market for sexual and labour exploitation.
It is conceivable that in the future these
OCGs may respond to an increasing demand for
the sexual exploitation of European women in
countries with emerging middle classes, where
European women may be considered ‘exotic’
and larger profits can be generated for these
OCGs.
The use of online services to facilitate the trafficking
in human beings will intensify further
over the next years. Sexual exploitation using
web cams or sex chats emerged together with
the proliferation of the internet; future technological
innovation will almost certainly give
rise to new and previously unknown forms of
exploitation.
Organised property crime
OCGs active in organised property crime adapt
quickly to changes in their operating environment
and continuously look for new opportunities.
Thieves may increasingly target electric
cars.
Cargo thieves will adapt to this change in
logistical arrangements with new modi operandi.
Supply chains are likely to become fully
automated, with human intervention limited to
remote supervision and handling at the origin
and destination of transported goods. In response
to this development, the theft of cargo
may emerge as a profitable cybercrime which
relies on intrusion into logistics systems and the
diversion of goods to the OCG.
Online platforms will become the main marketplace
for stolen goods, largely replacing
traditional ‘fences’, especially for data and
higher value items. Stolen goods are already
traded on both the open web and Darknet marketplaces.
This development is set to continue
and service offerings are likely to become more
professional and broader in scope. For instance,
rather than having to rely on criminal connections,
consumers may be able to buy a stolen
car to order, anonymously and with minimal
effort. The trafficking of stolen cultural goods is
currently a marginal phenomenon. However, as
huge markets in China, Brazil and India develop,
there may be an unprecedented growth in
demand for cultural items, which are seen as
status symbols.
Fraud
Ubiquitous connectivity via stationary and
mobile devices and a pervasive reliance on
online services will drive the evolution of fraud
schemes. The widespread exchange of personal
information and data between individuals,
but also increasingly between citizens and
government authorities, is attracting OCGs
which are able to generate significant profits
from fraud schemes relying on data obtained
through theft. OCGs will develop fraud schemes
to exploit the increasing delivery of services
and education remotely over the internet. The
growth of e-commerce is giving rise to a variety
of new frauds targeting individual consumers,
online vendors and businesses providing money
transfer services.
EU and Member State subsidies and other financial
incentives are an integral part of many economic
policies aimed at stimulating economic recovery
and supporting sectors with high- growth
potential. OCGs have demonstrated their ability
to access and divert public funds, often targeting
highly subsidised sectors such as renewable energies.
Often relying on the corruption of public
servants to facilitate their activities, OCGs will
seek to expand their activities to other sectors of
the economy wherever opportunities for subsidy
fraud appear.
The “Gameover Zeus”botnet, targeted in May 2014 by a worldwide joint
action led by FBI and supported by European Cybercrime Centre (EC3)
at Europol is designed to steal banking and other credentials from the
computers it infects. Those credentials are then used to initiate or re-direct
wire transfers to accounts controlled by criminals. Security researchers
estimate that between 500 000 and one million computers worldwide are
affected by the last version of the malware that appeared in 2007. Known
losses caused by it are estimated around EUR 75 million.
Europol, May 2014
EUROPOL / Exploring tomorrow’s organised crime / 2015