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4 FOREWORD BY THE DIRECTOR EUROPOL / Exploring tomorrow’s organised crime / 2015
I am pleased to present Europol’s view on the future of serious and organised crime in the European Union (EU). This report, a first of this kind for Europol, is the outcome of our engagement with experts in the private and public sectors and academia as well as our many partners in the European law enforcement community. Law enforcement is often criticised for being reactive rather than proactive. A reactive approach to criminal offences committed lies in the nature of police work — in solving criminal cases, supporting victims and working within our judicial systems to create justice. However, we can also be more proactive in fighting crime, particularly organised crime, in anticipating the development of new modi operandi, shifts in criminal markets and changes in organised crime structures. Looking ahead will enable us to better allocate resources, plan operational activities and engage with policy- and law-makers to prevent certain types of crimes from emerging. This document considers the future of serious and organised crime in the EU and while we do not claim to make definitive predictions, we identify a series of key driving factors that will impact on the serious and organised crime landscape in Europe. The EU’s first full multi-annual policy cycle on serious and organised crime enters its third year in 2015. The policy cycle represents Europe’s joint effort in fighting serious and organised crime and aims to coordinate the activities of many stakeholders at EU-level. With the first successful operational actions of this cycle already accomplished, this is an ideal time to look ahead and identify the key trends and developments that will shape our wider environment, law enforcement and serious and organised crime. Serious and organised crime will pose new threats to the Member States of the EU. Organised crime groups will find ways to exploit evolving technologies, changes in the economy and society. New forms of payment such as virtual currencies will change how criminal actors transfer and launder illicit proceeds of crime. New modes of transportation will provide OCGs with greater mobility and new ways to traffic illicit goods into, from and via the EU. Economic disparity and declining prosperity in EU Member States has the potential to create a climate rife for exploitation by OCGs and creating large pools of potential recruits for organised crime. The increasing scarcity of and competition for natural resources will open new fields of exploitation for OCGs. The make-up of European societies is undergoing major demographic changes opening up new opportunities for OCGs to exploit a larger group of elderly people or provide illicit services to them. These and many other factors are set to impact on the serious and organised crime landscape. Organised crime is dynamic and adaptable and law enforcement authorities across the EU are challenged to keep pace with the changing nature of this substantial and significant threat. However, just as criminals learn to exploit new technologies and invent new modi operandi, law enforcement authorities also make use of technological innovation and develop new investigative measures to counter the threat of organised crime. In this report, leading police officers from various EU Member States, third partners and international organisations outline how they evaluate the challenges and opportunities facing law enforcement over the next decade. Law enforcement authorities are becoming more effective and better at countering the various criminal threats emerging from serious and organised crime. Law enforcement authorities will continue to innovate to serve and protect their communities across Europe. We hope to be able to make a contribution to their work with this report by outlining potential developments and emerging threats across the serious and organised crime landscape. Organised crime is dynamic and adaptable and law enforcement authorities across the EU are challenged to keep pace with the changing nature of this substantial and significant threat. Rob Wainwright Director of Europol 5 EUROPOL / Exploring tomorrow’s organised crime / 2015
Page 1 and 2: EXPLORING TOMORROW’S ORGANISED CR
Page 3: Table of Contents Exploring tomorro
Page 7 and 8: © Shutterstock Serious and Organis
Page 9 and 10: Transportation and logistics Demogr
Page 11 and 12: Europe’s changing criminal landsc
Page 13 and 14: Towards a new definition of organis
Page 15 and 16: CHANGE SERIOUS AND Transportation a
Page 17 and 18: Key drivers for change and their im
Page 35 and 36: MARKETS Cannabis Fraud Facilitation
Page 37 and 38: The evolution of criminal markets C
Page 39 and 40: The evolution of criminal markets S
Page 41 and 42: The evolution of criminal markets
Page 43 and 44: Delivering law enforcement - challe
Page 45 and 46: The future of law enforcement and p
Page 47 and 48: activities. Over the last five year
Page 49 and 50: Contributions from leaders in law e
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Contributions from leaders in law e
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34. Eurosur is an information-excha
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