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Convection-Resolving Forecasting with the WRF Model - cmmap

Convection-Resolving Forecasting with the WRF Model - cmmap

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Progress<br />

4 km <strong>WRF</strong> simulations exhibit:<br />

A surprising ability to forecast mesoscale<br />

convective systems (MCS) out to 36 h<br />

A demonstrated skill at depicting MCS mode<br />

(bow echoes, mesoscale convective vortices,<br />

supercell lines)<br />

An ability to spin-up convective systems <strong>with</strong>in<br />

3-4 h from a cold start.<br />

Potential for significant improvement in forecast<br />

guidance over convective parameterization

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