Predictive Modelling of Undergraduate Student Intake - aair

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Transformations – logit function • Maps (0,1) to (-∞,∞) ∞ ∞) • Used to transform a response variable which is a binomial proportion • Model is fitted to transformed Y-variable logit(Y) = α + βX + ε • Inverse function used to “un-transform” results AAIR Forum 2008 14 The logit function y = ln(x) - ln(1-x) Anatoli Lightfoot – ANU
Predictions • Model is fit on observed (historical) data • To make predictions: Y = α + βX +εε • Obtain new data which contains explanatory variables • Apply model equation to data • Output is predicted Y-values and confidence intervals • Make sure new data is from same population! AAIR Forum 2008 15 Anatoli Lightfoot – ANU
Page 1 and 2: Predictive Modelling of Undergradua
Page 3 and 4: Why is this important? • Load man
Page 5 and 6: Things this presentation does not c
Page 7 and 8: Regression • Relationship between
Page 9 and 10: The regression equation - example
Page 11 and 12: The regression equation • The ε
Page 13: Transformations • The variables u
Page 17 and 18: Applications of regression • Many
Page 19 and 20: Applications of regression • Conv
Page 21 and 22: Model refinement • Iterative proc
Page 23 and 24: Reliable models • Simple models a
Page 25 and 26: Detailed example - acceptance rates
Page 27 and 28: Detailed example - acceptance rates

Predictive Modelling of Undergraduate Student Intake - aair

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