Predictive Modelling of Undergraduate Student Intake - aair

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The regression equation • What do the i and ε signify? Y i = α + βX i + ε i • The subscript i indexes observations • Each i-value represents a data point • Often omitted for clarity • ε i is an error term • The “residual” for each observation AAIR Forum 2008 8 Anatoli Lightfoot – ANU
The regression equation - example • Height vs 100m sprint time Y i = α + βX i + ε i • For the i-th observation (person): • Y i is 100m sprint time • X i is height • Determining α and β is “fitting” a model • This is done using statistical s<strong>of</strong>tware • α and β are chosen to minimise Σ(ε 2 i ) AAIR Forum 2008 9 Anatoli Lightfoot – ANU
Page 1 and 2: Predictive Modelling of Undergradua
Page 3 and 4: Why is this important? • Load man
Page 5 and 6: Things this presentation does not c
Page 7: Regression • Relationship between
Page 11 and 12: The regression equation • The ε
Page 13 and 14: Transformations • The variables u
Page 15 and 16: Predictions • Model is fit on obs
Page 17 and 18: Applications of regression • Many
Page 19 and 20: Applications of regression • Conv
Page 21 and 22: Model refinement • Iterative proc
Page 23 and 24: Reliable models • Simple models a
Page 25 and 26: Detailed example - acceptance rates
Page 27 and 28: Detailed example - acceptance rates

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