Predictive Modelling of Undergraduate Student Intake - aair

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Outline • Introduction (brief) • Theory of regression analysis (not so brief) • Some possible applications • What to aim for to obtain reliable predictions • Limitations of regression models • One model in detail (acceptance rates) AAIR Forum 2008 2 Anatoli Lightfoot – ANU
Why is this important? • Load management is vital to universities! So: • Student load has a major effect on university funding • The consequences of being under- or over-enrolled are potentially very serious • We want to get it right; and • We want to know how likely it is to go wrong AAIR Forum 2008 3 Anatoli Lightfoot – ANU
Page 1: Predictive Modelling of Undergradua
Page 5 and 6: Things this presentation does not c
Page 7 and 8: Regression • Relationship between
Page 9 and 10: The regression equation - example
Page 11 and 12: The regression equation • The ε
Page 13 and 14: Transformations • The variables u
Page 15 and 16: Predictions • Model is fit on obs
Page 17 and 18: Applications of regression • Many
Page 19 and 20: Applications of regression • Conv
Page 21 and 22: Model refinement • Iterative proc
Page 23 and 24: Reliable models • Simple models a
Page 25 and 26: Detailed example - acceptance rates
Page 27 and 28: Detailed example - acceptance rates

Predictive Modelling of Undergraduate Student Intake - aair

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