1JF6e15

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA
Figure 5.21: Modeled distributions of annual number of high fire danger days across Siberia in the current climate (a) and during
the 21st century (b) for HadCM3 A1FI and B1 climate change scenarios.
Fire danger days key: 0—non-forest area; 1—120 days. Source: Tchebakova et al. (2009), Figure 4.
the impacts of disturbances such as fire and pest outbreaks are
substantial—and projected climate change impacts could be both
large-scale and disastrous. Future projections highlight changes
in productivity, vegetation distribution, and composition that will
typically be stronger in a 4°C world than in a 2°C world—often
in non-linear ways.
It is important to also highlight that change in species composition
toward better adapted tree species may buffer productivity
losses, although they will also lead to a strong change in the forest
landscape and associated uses. Projected climate change may also
induce an increase in fire danger and fire intensity. Defoliators
and other pests and diseases could be stimulated by a warmer
and drier climate.
Transition zones, from forest to steppe, are very vulnerable
to climate change; in particular, increases in atmospheric water
demand could lead to water stress and higher tree mortality.
Increased occurrences of disturbances could also affect vegetation
distribution in transition zones.
The impacts of climate change are often overlaid with other
environmental and societal changes; this could exacerbate both
existing and projected challenges. These changes may strongly
affect local, regional, and global forest resource availability, ecosystem
functioning, services such as carbon storage and biodiversity
support, and even feedback on the global climate system.
Russia also contains an extensive area of forested permafrost.
Changes here are already among the largest and they could
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