1JF6e15

RISK/IMPACT
OBSERVED
VULNERABILITY
OR CHANGE
AROUND 1°C
(≈2010s)
AROUND 1.5°C
(≈2030s)
AROUND 2.0°C
(≈2040s)
Yields Up to 13%
20–50% yield loss
All Crops 50% yield declines following
and Herzegovina 24 country yield increase 10–25% lower yields
in Uzbekistan 26 and increased water
drought in 2012 in Serbia 21
70% yield declines following
drought in 2012 in Bosnia
yield decline in Uzbekistan; in eastern parts of the in Uzbekistan due
to heat and water
stress 26
up to 13% possible 25 Higher productivity of alfalfa and grasslands in Uzbekistan due to
decreasing runoff in
the Syr Daraya River
use competition 27
20% yield loss of
Up to 21% reduced
yields of olives and
20% reduced yields
of grapes in Albania;
up to 69% reduced
yield in grapes and
up to 56% reduced
yield in vegetables in
Macedonia, FYR, up
to 50% percent yield
declines for wheat in
Mediterranean and
Continental parts of
Macedonia 25
Maize Very high concentrations of
aflatoxin concentration in
maize as a result of 2012
drought in Serbia 29 Up to 50% percent
yield declines in
Mediterranean and
Continental parts of
Macedonia, FYR 25
Up to 11% reduced
yields Albania 26
Cotton 0 to 6% decrease in Up to 19% reduced
Uzbekistan 26,30 yields in Uzbekistan 26
AROUND 3.0°C
(≈2060s)
AROUND 4°C
AND ABOVE
(≈2080s)
30% yield drops in some parts
rain-fed grapes and of Tajikistan 28
olives in Albania 25
211