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CONTENTS 4.4.4 Migration and Security 141 4.4.5 Coastal Infrastructure and Tourism 147 4.4.6 Energy Systems 151 4.5 Regional Development Narratives 154 4.5.1 Changing Precipitation Patterns and an Increase in Extreme Heat Pose High Risks to Agricultural Production and Regional Food Security 155 4.5.2 Heat Extremes Will Pose a Significant Challenge for Public Health Across the Region 156 4.5.3 Climate Change Might Act as a Threat Multiplier for the Security Situation 157 4.6 Synthesis Table—Middle East and North Africa 159 5. Europe and Central Asia 169 5.1 Regional Summary 169 5.1.1 Regional Patterns of Climate Change 169 5.1.2 Regional Sea-level Rise 171 5.1.3 Sector-based and Thematic Impacts 171 5.1.4 Overview of Regional Development Narratives 173 5.2 Introduction 174 5.2.1 General Characteristics 174 5.2.2 Socioeconomic Profile of ECA 174 5.3 Regional Patterns of Climate Change 176 5.3.1 Projected Temperature Changes 176 5.3.2 Heat Extremes 177 5.3.3 Regional Precipitation Projections 179 5.3.4 Extreme Precipitation and Droughts 179 5.3.5 Aridity 180 5.3.6 Regional Sea-level Rise 182 5.4 Regional Impacts 182 5.4.1 Water Resources 182 5.4.2 Agricultural Production and Food Security 189 5.4.3 Energy Systems 192 5.4.4 Human Health 194 5.4.5 Security and Migration 195 5.4.6 Russia’s Forests: A Potential Tipping Point? 197 5.5 Regional Development Narratives 204 5.5.1 Impacts on Water Resources in Central Asia Increase the Challenge of Accommodating Competing Water Demands for Agricultural Production and Hydropower Generation 204 5.5.2 Climate Extremes in the Western Balkans Pose Major Risks to Agricultural Systems, Energy and Human Health 205 5.5.3 Responses of Permafrost and the Boreal Forests of the Russian Federation to Climate Change Have Consequences for Timber Productivity and Global Carbon Stocks 207 5.6 Synthesis Table—Europe and Central Asia 209 Appendix 217 A.1 Methods for Temperature, Precipitation, Heat Wave, and Aridity Projections 217 A.1.1 ISI-MIP Bias Correction 217 A.1.2 Heat Extreme Analysis 217 A.1.3 Aridity Index and Potential Evaporation 218 A.1.4 Spatial Averaging 218 A.2 Sea-Level Rise Projections: Methods for This Report 218 A.2.1 Individual Contributions 218 A.2.2 Comparison with Previous Reports and Expert-Elicitation Studies 219 A.3 Meta-analysis of Crop Yield Changes with Climate Change 221 A.3.1 Data Processing 221 v
TURN DOWN THE HEAT: CONFRONTING THE NEW CLIMATE NORMAL A.3.2 Statistical Analysis 222 A.4 Warming Level Attribution and Classification 222 A.5 Summary of Evidence Concerning Social Vulnerability 223 Bibliography 239 Figures 2.1 Projections for surface-air temperature increase 6 2.2 Climate-model projections of global-mean surface-air temperature 8 2.3 ENSO and extreme events 9 2.4 Idealized schematic showing atmospheric and oceanic conditions of the tropical Pacific region and their interactions during normal conditions, El Niño conditions, and in a warmer world 11 2.5 Multi-model mean global temperature anomaly for RCP2.6 for (2°C world, left) and RCP8.5 (4°C world, right) for the boreal summer months (JJA) 12 2.6 Estimates of world population experiencing highly unusual monthly boreal summer temperatures 13 2.7 Relative change in annual water discharge for a 2°C world and a 4°C world 15 2.8 Percentile change in the occurrence of days under drought conditions 15 2.9 Median yield changes (%) for major crop types in a 4°C world 16 2.10 Global ocean acidification as expressed by a gradual decrease of ocean surface pH (indicating a higher concentration of hydrogen ions–or acidity) 17 2.11 Global mean sea-level rise projection within the 21st century 19 2.12 Patterns of regional sea-level rise 21 2.13 Regional anomaly pattern and its contributions in the median RCP8.5 scenario (4°C world) 22 2.14 Framework for understanding social vulnerability to climate change 23 3.1 Multi-model mean temperature anomaly for Latin America and the Caribbean for RCP2.6 (2°C world, left) and RCP8.5 (4°C world, right) for the austral summer months (DJF) 32 3.2 Multi-model mean of the percentage change in the aridity index 33 3.3 Temperature projections for the Latin American and Caribbean land area 44 3.4 Multi-model mean temperature anomaly for Latin America and the Caribbean 45 3.5 Multi-model mean of the percentage of austral summer months (DJF) in the time period 2071–2099 with temperatures greater than 3-sigma (top row) and 5-sigma (bottom row) 46 3.6 Multi-model mean and individual models of the percentage of Latin American and Caribbean land area warmer than 3-sigma (top) and 5-sigma (bottom) 47 3.7 Multi-model mean of the percentage change in austral summer (DJF, top), winter (JJA, middle) and annual (bottom) precipitation 48 3.8 Multi-model mean of the percentage change in the annual-mean of monthly potential evapotranspiration for RCP2.6 (2°C world, left) and RCP8.5 (4°C world, right) for Latin America and the Caribbean by 2071–2099 relative to 1951–1980 50 3.9 Multi-model mean of the percentage change in the aridity index 51 3.10 Change in average rate of occurrence of Category 4 and 5 tropical cyclones per hurricane season (August–October) at about 2.5°C warming globally above pre-industrial levels by the end of the 21st century compared to the present-day 53 3.11 Patterns of regional sea-level rise 54 3.12 Regional anomaly pattern and its contributions in the median RCP8.5 scenario 55 3.13 Sea level projections for selected cities 56 3.14 Compilation of mean annual area loss rates for different time periods for glaciated areas between Venezuela and Bolivia 57 3.15 Ice loss from outlet glaciers on the Patagonian Ice Field in southern South America since the Little Ice Age 58 3.16 Cumulative regional surface mass balance relative to the 1986–2005 mean from the model forced with CMIP5 projections up to the year 2100. SLE = Sea-level equivalent 59 3.17 Changes in seasonal total runoff in 4 IPCC climate-change scenarios with respect to the 1961–1990 mean monthly runoff 62 vi
Page 1 and 2: Turn Down the Heat Confronting the
Page 3 and 4: © 2014 International Bank for Reco
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Page 18 and 19: Executive Summary The data show tha
Page 20 and 21: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Extreme preci
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Chapter 3
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Ta ble 3.15: Continued. RISK/IMPACT
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Ta ble 3.15: Continued. OBSERVED VU
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Middle East and Nort h Africa The M
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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Figure
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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Algier
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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Table
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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA 2°C a
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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA In the
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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Box 4.
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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA 2011).
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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA temper
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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA migrat
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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Osman-
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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Table
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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Box 4.
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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA electr
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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA exhaus
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4.6 Synthesis Table—Middle East a
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RISK/IMPACT Sea-level Rise Above Pr
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RISK/IMPACT Coastal Areas* Energy S
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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Endnot
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Chapter 5
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Table 5.7: Continued. RISK/IMPACT O
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Table 5.7: Continued. RISK/IMPACT O
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Appendix A.1 Methods for Temperatur
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APPENDIX et al. 2012) in our analys
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APPENDIX Figure A.2: Same as Figure
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APPENDIX A.5 S ummary of Evidence C
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APPENDIX Table A.2: Summary of Evid
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RISK/IMPACT Increase in crop diseas
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RISK/IMPACT Strained social cohesio
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RISK/IMPACT Displacement (as a resu
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RISK/IMPACT Increase in respiratory
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RISK/IMPACT Increase in mental illn
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RISK/IMPACT Increased risk of confl
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Bibliography Abdulla, F., Eshtawi,
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Balshi, M.S., McGuire,
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BIBLIOGRAPHY and Belowground Carbon
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BIBLIOGRAPHY edited by S. Solomon,
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Dixon, J.A., Gibbon, D
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Political Discourses,
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Glantz, M., and Jamies
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Hijioka, Y., Lin, E.,
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Johnstone S., and Mazo
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Kumar, N., and Quisumb
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BIBLIOGRAPHY J. (2007). “The Huma
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Mesquita, P.C.M.D., Pi
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Novikov, V., Simonett,
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Century, Hotspots, and
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Caused by Pasture and
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Slettebak, R.T. (2012)
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Tory, K.J., Chand, S.S
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Wang, M., Overland, J.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Xu, D., Li, C., Zhuang
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