Lunenburg Part 1 - Introduction and Background August 30.pdf

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Figure 1: The Municipality of the District of Lunenburg is located on the south shore of Nova Scotia and is within the County of Lunenburg. It is bordered to the east by the Municipality of the District of Chester, to the west by the Region of Queens Municipality and surrounds the towns of A) Bridgewater, B) Lunenburg, and C) Mahone Bay (Data Source: Province of Nova Scotia, 2004). Report Structure This report is a compilation of the studies that comprise the District of Lunenburg ACAS projects undertaken by the Dalhousie University project team. It is organized into two major parts Part 1, Introduction and Background; and Part 2, comprising six constituent study reports. Part 1 provides an Introduction and Background to the District of Lunenburg ACAS projects and presents the rationale for the work, its contribution to the objectives of the ACAS program, and the general methodological context for the linked studies (the study area, the time frame, the data resources and methods used). A brief overview of coastal climate change impacts in Nova Scotia and a primer on adaptation planning set the context for the project rationale. A description of the Lunenburg study area establishes the local environmental, social, economic and political context for the projects. Part 2 compiles the component studies of the District of Lunenburg ACAS project. Each project has its own discreet section, as follows: Section 1 describes the work and findings that establish the future coastal environmental conditions that focus most of the analyses that follow: local sea level rise and storm surge flood 2
scenarios for the years 2025 and 2100. In this project, we developed scenarios for each of these two years using the best available peer-reviewed studies to date of sea level rise predictions globally and locally combined with LiDAR elevation data and elevation models compiled for the ACAS project areas. We calculated and illustrated local coastline retreat with rising sea surface elevation and the reach of storm surge flood waters during extreme and benchmark storms. Section 2 presents the spatial analysis of the extent and types of physical infrastructure potentially impacted by sea level rise and storm surges under the worst case scenarios presented in Part 2, Section 1. The analysis includes impact to hard infrastructure such as roads and sewers as well as soft infrastructure such as parks and beaches. The discussion emphasizes the error, known as representation error. The error arises where linear features, such as a road, in reality also have a surface area but in the cartographic (or GIS) environment are represented as a line. The work provides guidance to the municipalities on setting priorities to protect, reinforce or move infrastructure at risk and plan for future infrastructure development. Section 3 presents the work of identifying social assets vulnerable to climate change impacts. The inventory and assessment involved residents in naming and mapping assets they consider important to the character, experience and quality life in the communities that comprise the Municipality of the District of Lunenburg. Residents identified a very wide range of assets from physical structures such as community centres and trails, to environmental spaces such as beaches and wetlands, to experiences such as coastal hikes. We overlaid the inventory of assets with the inundation and flood scenarios to interpret what assets could be impacted by higher water levels and storm surge flooding in 2025 and 2100. Section 4 presents the work of valuing the assets using a ranking approach. Residents identified and ranked assets important to them through a questionnaire survey. Interviews with decision makers revealed priorities for social assets among this group. We compared the valued assets and rankings of the public and the decision makers to determine convergence and divergence in priorities. Knowing where there is agreement or differences is important for establishing priorities in addressing climate change impacts. The material presented in this section is adapted from an independent study research paper prepared by graduate student Zoe Wollenberg as part of the Master of Planning degree at Dalhousie University. Section 5 presents the analysis of social vulnerability in the District of Lunenburg, focusing on vulnerability to sea level rise and storm surge flooding. The section presents an overview of social vulnerability and determinants, and presents the results and analysis of using Statistics Canada census data to map the spatial distribution of vulnerable populations in the study area and relate the existing distribution to flood prone locations. It also considers associated concerns such as impacts to physical access (e.g. routes to emergency centres, community centres, health care centres) that might increase vulnerability for certain populations. The discussion considers the application of the findings to planning supports for vulnerable populations or avoidance strategies through land use planning. The material presented in this section is adapted from an independent study research paper prepared by graduate student Michaela Cochran as part of the Master of Planning degree at Dalhousie University. Section 6 is an examination of municipal capacity in the District of Lunenburg to adapt to climate change. This study considered the capacity inherent in existing planning and related policies and legislation, administration structure and external partnerships (such as links to other municipalities, other levels of government or service agencies). Documents analysis and consultation with municipal staff and professionals in other government agencies of relevance to climate change adaptation were used to determine existing planning tools available to address 3
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Lunenburg Part 1 - Introduction and Background August 30.pdf

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