Lunenburg Part 1 - Introduction and Background August 30.pdf

More documents

Recommendations

Info

ise – are happening at much faster rates than might be expected without human influences. Our governance and land and resource management systems are slow to adjust to these changes and, as a result, our communities could suffer the negative consequences of the associated impacts of accelerated environmental change. A warming climate will have a variety of impacts on the global environment, some of which will be focused in coastal areas. Warmer temperatures will cause expansion of ocean waters, as well as more rapid and extensive melting of glaciers and ice sheets. Warming could also fuel more frequent and severe storm activity 4 . Coastal areas of Nova Scotia are projected to experience coastal flooding and accelerated erosion as a result of sea level rise, increased storm frequency and severity, and storm surges 5 . Over the 20 th century, average global sea levels rose about 15cm 6 . Due to the increased rate at which warming-induced sea level rise is projected to continue, scientists predict that the 21 st century will experience a much greater rise in average global sea levels 7 . Coastal areas are now at risk more than ever to inundation, flooding, and erosion 8 . Several different projections for global sea level rise exist. Based on research to 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports an upper limit of 0.57m by the year 2100, The IPCC projections do not, however, account for the accelerated melting of glaciers and ice sheets. Newer findings by Rahmstorf and Vermeer and Grinsted et al. take these factors into account, and predict higher rates of sea level rise of 1.58m to 1.69m 9 In Nova Scotia, these impacts will be even more pronounced due to the compounding effect of land subsidence. Since the last ice age, the Nova Scotia land mass has been adjusting to the reduction in ice mass weighing it down in a process known as glacial isostatic adjustment. As part of this adjustment, Nova Scotia rebounded but now the land mass is settling back down from this initial rebound, causing Nova Scotia to sink at a rate measured at about 15cm over the 20 th century. The combination of sea level rise and land subsidence results in what is called total relative sea level rise – the amount that the high water line has encroached upon previously dry land. Over the 20 th century in Nova Scotia, this was about 30cm 10 . Nova Scotia is not experiencing crustal subsidence uniformly across the provincial land mass, however, and other factors of morphology, tidal range and coastal exposure also greatly influence the local expression of sea level changes as well as storm surge impacts. Sea level rise alone or in combination with storms has the capacity to impact coastal property and infrastructure. Depending on the extent and severity of impacts the implications can have far reaching consequences for the economy and way of life for coastal communities. As climate change progresses and sea levels rise and storms intensify, Nova Scotia communities will need to adapt to the changing environmental conditions of their coastal zone 11 . The following section is an overview of adaptation planning and provides the conceptual framework for the eventual application of the results of the projects to climate change adaptation planning in the District of Lunenburg. 4 CCSP, 2009; Grinsted et al., 2009; Rahmstorf and Vermeer, 2009; Nova Scotia Environment, 2009; Richardson, 2010. 5 Vasseur and Catto, 2008; Nova Scotia Environment, 2009. 6 Vasseur and Catto, 2008. 7 Government of Canada, 2006; CBCL, 2009; CCSP, 2009. 8 CBCL, 2009; CCSP, 2009. 9 Grinsted et al. 2009, Ramstorf et al. 2009. 10 CBCL, 2009; CCSP, 2009. 11 CCSP, 2009. 8
Adaptability and Adaptation Adaptation to climate and coastal processes is not new to Nova Scotians 12 . For centuries, inhabitants of fishing communities have constructed and maintained dykes to keep the tides out of fertile marshlands, rebuilt wharves after destructive storms, and relocated structures further inland with the progression of erosion. Today, much of the population remains concentrated on the coast 13 as a result of its cultural, economic, and recreational significance 14 . Adaptation, however, has become more difficult due to a combination of three factors: the increased rate and intensity at which change is projected to occur 15 ; the increased amount and permanence of land uses and structures along the coast 16 ; and the decreased extent of coastal buffer zones as a result of development 17 . The culmination of these factors will cause adaptation to become more frequent, more extensive, more difficult, and more necessary. The potential is increasing for reactive adaptation – adaptation that occurs after a change has taken place and also referred to as maladaptation – to cripple cities and communities. In order to remain achievable, adaptation must become proactive 18 . But while reactive adaptation tends to occur regardless of whether or not planning is in place to direct it, proactive adaptation cannot occur effectively without planning to guide it. Cities and communities must plan to adapt to climate change 19 . Planning to adapt to climate change starts with a discussion of what it means to be adaptable. Environmental forces and human activity have shaped one another for millennia. We have adapted to natural processes and events around us, while modifying them in order to suit our needs 20 . Communities, cities, and the environments in which they exist are interconnected and interdependent webs of living and non-living components; they are social-ecological systems 21 . The adaptability of such a system can be defined by both its resilience and its stability 22 . Resiliency is the ability to absorb and to endure disturbance and change 23 . For a community or city to be resilient, it must be able to recover from disturbance 24 while continuing to provide what residents need, especially in times of crisis 25 . Resiliency alone, however, is not enough to make a system adaptable. Extreme, forced changes can be both stressful for residents and taxing on resources 26 . In such cases, merely enduring is not enough to make change worthwhile, and so resiliency must be balanced with stability. Stability is the ability to return to a predictable 12 Vasseur and Catto, 2008. 13 CBCL, 2009; Nova Scotia Environment, 2009. 14 Toews, 2005; CBCL, 2009. 15 Government of Canada, 2006; CBCL, 2009; CCSP, 2009. 16 Toews, 2005; Vasseur & Catto, 2008; CCSP, 2009. 17 CCSP, 2009. 18 Burton, 2008; Richardson, 2010. 19 C-CIARN, 2004; CBCL, 2009; Bowron and Davidson, 2011. 20 Hester, 2006. 21 Folke et al., 2002. 22 Holling, 1973; Hester, 2006. 23 Holling, 1973, Folke et al., 2002. 24 Holling, 1973; Folke et al., 2002; Tompkins et al., 2005. 25 Hester, 2006. 26 Ibid. 9
Page 1 and 2: Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutio
Page 3 and 4: Report: This report was commissione
Page 5 and 6: Executive Summary The Municipality
Page 7 and 8: The assessment of social vulnerabil
Page 9 and 10: Table of Reports Part 1 Introductio
Page 11 and 12: Introduction The Municipality of th
Page 13 and 14: scenarios for the years 2025 and 21
Page 15 and 16: identify actual and opportunities f
Page 17: a questionnaire-based survey of res
Page 21 and 22: communities also become apparent. S
Page 23 and 24: Closer to the coast, on the western
Page 25 and 26: The 2006 median household income in
Page 27 and 28: References Atlantic Climate Adaptat

Lunenburg Part 1 - Introduction and Background August 30.pdf

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?