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Mercedes Botto Andrea Carla Bianculli - Flacso

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THE IMPACT OF RESEARCH IN TRADE POLICY IN THE SOUTHERN CONE<br />

THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE CAPITAL GOODS PROTOCOL AND<br />

THE COMMON EXTERNAL TARIFF WITHIN MERCOSUR<br />

<strong>Mercedes</strong> <strong>Botto</strong><br />

Senior Researcher<br />

Programa de Estudios sobre Instituciones Económicas Internacionales<br />

Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO-Argentina)<br />

<strong>Andrea</strong> <strong>Carla</strong> <strong>Bianculli</strong><br />

PhD Candidate<br />

Programme in Political and Social Sciences<br />

Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF, Barcelona)<br />

Paper prepared for the Call for Papers<br />

“The Role of Research on Trade Policy in the Developing World”<br />

launched by the Latin American Trade Network (LATN)<br />

and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC)<br />

October 2006


INDEX<br />

Introduction<br />

1. Literature review and concept definition<br />

2. Setting the context<br />

2.1. A first move towards trade liberalization: Alfonsín and the Integration and Economic<br />

Program (PICE) (1987-1989)<br />

2.2. Acceleration of the liberalization program: Menem and the Common External Tariff<br />

(CET) (1991-1995)<br />

3. Characterization of the research-policy relationship<br />

3.1. The Capital Goods Protocol (CGP)<br />

3.1.1. Academic production<br />

3.1.2. Research-policy articulation<br />

3.1.3. Utilization in decisions<br />

3.2. The Common External Tariff (CET)<br />

3.2.1. Academic production<br />

3.2.2. Research–policy articulation<br />

3.2.3. Utilization in decisions<br />

4. Impact evaluation: an initial comparative analysis<br />

5. Some final remarks<br />

Bibliography<br />

List of interviewees<br />

2


INTRODUCTION<br />

By the mid-1980s, the Argentine government launched a process of trade liberalization that would<br />

not be reversed in the future. This decision was framed within the political guidelines –<br />

conditionalities – that the World Bank demanded in order to release the loans the country needed<br />

to solve its foreign debt difficulties. However, within these broad guidelines, Argentina, as was the<br />

case with borrowing countries in general, still had ample freedom of action in terms of both<br />

strategic and contingency decisions, as when deciding to opt for either a unilateral liberalization<br />

process or a negotiated one; when deciding either to privilege a project involving deep integration<br />

or mere trade initiatives, or when choosing to establish bilateral agreements with border countries,<br />

or with Northern countries. In sum, options were not limited.<br />

The novelty1 and complexity of each of these definitions opened a window of opportunity for the<br />

influence of knowledge and academic research. Through their participation in the decisional<br />

process, academics could bridge the gap in terms of the uncertainty these new challenges posed,<br />

and also contribute to prevent or avoid the unwanted costs of the reforms, such as those brought<br />

about by trade liberalization.<br />

Political and academic literature has strongly debated about the impact ideas have on the decisional<br />

process since the early days of the Post-war. Two paradigms emerge within this debate. The first of<br />

these approaches argues that social researchers play a crucial role in the rationalization of the<br />

decision-making process. The second approach, which assumes a rather sceptical vision of this<br />

relationship, portrays the decisional process as chaotic and decisions as being the result of mutual<br />

adjustments among the different actors and arenas involved. Based on this second paradigm, this<br />

paper claims that researchers are only one of the agents involved in the decision-making process,<br />

endowed with a specific type of knowledge – namely, scientific knowledge – and their influence<br />

depends on their rivalry or imbrications with the knowledge of other local actors.<br />

The paper is thus aimed at analyzing and evaluating to what extent social research has influenced<br />

the trade policy-making process since the reestablishment of democracy until nowadays. In<br />

addition, we intend to identify which factors promote its influence in Argentina. Hence, this<br />

research emphasizes those least known or publicized aspects of the trade policy. This does not<br />

entail analyzing neither the scope nor the content of the trade liberalization process. Instead, we<br />

will focus on the processes, actors, and capabilities that have an impact on the decision-making<br />

process.<br />

Building on the current debate about the nexus between knowledge and politics, within this paper<br />

we analyze two processes of influence. The first, which can be characterized as a successful case,<br />

refers to the establishment of the Capital Goods Protocol (CGP), signed with Brazil during the<br />

1 Even if these countries had participated in the negotiations within the Latin America Integration<br />

Association (LAIA) during the 1970s and/or implemented neoliberal policies before, the novelty and main<br />

implication of the new global context was given by the existence of multilateral mechanisms of control –<br />

namely, the World Trade Organization (WTO) – which keeps governments from reversing the path initiated<br />

and from establishing measures of unilateral protection as they used to apply.<br />

3


initial period of tariff preferences negotiation – 1985 to 1988 – and which was part of the<br />

Integration and Economic Program (PICE). The second episode, instead, is portrayed as a failed<br />

case: the negotiation of the Common External Tariff (CET) between 1991 and 1994, where in spite<br />

of the technical complexity of the issue at stake, research and knowledge did not have a prominent<br />

role in this particular decision-making process.<br />

The analysis of both episodes is intended to identify the type of knowledge produced, the<br />

articulation established with policymakers, and the factors that either promoted or hindered its use<br />

in the policy process. The information and data presented are based on secondary resources and the<br />

analysis of 18 interviews conducted with policymakers and researchers in the field of foreign trade,<br />

representing both private and public research centres, and who were directly involved in the<br />

process under Raúl Alfonsín’s (1983-1989) and/or Carlos Menem’s (1989-1999) administrations.<br />

This paper is structured into four parts. In the first one, we identify and analyze the literature<br />

contributions in terms of the conceptual and methodological definitions. The second section<br />

describes the spatial and temporal context in which the nexus between research and decisionmaking<br />

effectively occurred. In the third part, we delve into the analysis of both episodes of policy<br />

change and focus on the research-policy relationship. The fourth section offers a comparative<br />

analysis of the field research, and an initial impact evaluation – assessment. Finally, the conclusion<br />

presents the main lessons derived from both case studies, and proposes some policy<br />

recommendations regarding the enhancement of the utilization of empirical research by<br />

policymakers in the region in the years to come.<br />

1. LITERATURE REVIEW AND CONCEPT DEFINITION<br />

Interest in the role of ideas and academics on the decision-making process is not new. During the<br />

Post-war, interest arose as a consequence of the increasing complexity of decisions, the expansion<br />

of public intervention into new areas, and the greater significance of social sciences in the planning<br />

and evaluation phases of policies. Later on, other phenomena contributed to this<br />

acknowledgement, namely, the role of ideas in terms of the structuring and affirmation of<br />

paradigms of reference, and the development of the so-called public-private networks where expert<br />

knowledge is attributed a privileged role. In sum, the impact of ideas over the decision-making<br />

process has been strongly debated in the political and academic literature since the Post-war period<br />

till today.<br />

In terms of the impact or influence of research on public policy, two main paradigms can be<br />

identified regarding the role social researchers – taken as knowledge producers – play in the public<br />

decision-making processes [Brunner et al., 1993]. The first of these paradigms is part of the policymaking<br />

theory developed during the 1950s in the United States. This approach promotes a<br />

favourable attitude towards social and political engineering, and argues that researchers play a<br />

fundamental role within the decision-making process since they provide the necessary knowledge<br />

4


and instruments for the rationalization of the decision-making and coordination processes. In other<br />

words, they provide the empirical evidence that clarifies doubts and reduces the uncertainty<br />

brought about by policy reform.<br />

Based on the assumption that the decisional process is linear and incremental, four phases are<br />

identified within this model. In each of these phases, there is one main actor that is responsible and<br />

who stamps his activity specificities and own particular characteristics on the process. Thus, for<br />

example, the decision to include the problem on the public agenda is an activity which corresponds<br />

to the government leaders – the executives – who arbitrate between the conflicting visions and<br />

opinions on the issue, while during the formulation – and/or design – phase of the policy,<br />

academics and experts are the ones who propose alternatives and solutions. During the<br />

implementation phase, and mainly motivated by the distribution costs of the policy, interest groups<br />

or lobbies may press on the government or different public offices to have their interests<br />

contemplated. Finally, during the evaluation or monitoring phase, responsibility is shared among<br />

external experts and the population in general. In turn, this entails a synergetic dynamic [Cobb,<br />

Ross, and Ross, 1976].<br />

While this first approach argues that social researchers play a key role in the rationalization of the<br />

decision-making process, the second paradigm assumes a rather sceptical vision and characterizes<br />

the decisional process as mainly chaotic. From this perspective, decisions are the result of mutual<br />

adjustments among the different players and the diverse arenas where they interact. Within this<br />

“building blocks” game, researchers are just another player, endowed with a very specific type of<br />

knowledge – namely, scientific knowledge – and their influence depends on their interaction with<br />

the knowledge of other local actors.<br />

The “engineering model of information use”, which argues that the produced information would fit<br />

into the decision to be made, was thus superseded by an approach based on the idea that there are<br />

multiple decision-making arenas and that various actors are involved in this game, being endowed<br />

with only partial information and local knowledge. These actors include social researchers and<br />

academics, whose knowledge – based on scientific rules – is only one of the many competing<br />

sources of knowledge and information. However, arguments were put forward in the sense that<br />

only in exceptional cases does empirical research produce a direct, instrumental, and clearly<br />

identifiable impact on the decision-making process. On the contrary, in most cases, the decisional<br />

process is diffuse and lacks a concrete order of stages; it is routine that governs. Hence, if research<br />

and information do have an impact, this is only an indirect process. This is what has been<br />

catalogued as “the enlightenment function of research” [Weiss, 1979], which illustrates the idea that<br />

knowledge gained by means of research provides a diffuse “enlightenment” function and broadens the<br />

existing knowledge base of policymakers. Thus, as long as it offers an understanding and<br />

interpretation of the data and the situation that is critical to the policy decision, research may lead<br />

to a gradual shift in concepts and paradigms. In other words, Weiss’ enlightenment model<br />

highlights the role of research as clarifying, accelerating, and legitimizing changes in conceptual<br />

thinking, and therefore, in policies.<br />

5


When social research influences the decisional process, this is based on the fact that it is just<br />

another knowledge or area of expertise. Moreover, this influence takes place in decision-making<br />

arenas already informed by other kinds of previous local knowledge – such as partial information,<br />

anecdotes, and accumulated experiences and practices, among others – used by the wide range of<br />

players involved in the process as soon as they implement their own strategies. Within this context,<br />

social scientific knowledge can have some limited influence or impact in the decision-making<br />

process only by establishing a competition with previously provided local knowledge and<br />

information. In most cases, the influence of research may lead to the construction of a framework<br />

consisting of empirical generalizations and ideas that can then be absorbed by policymakers in a<br />

rather unconscious manner.<br />

As opposed to the first approach, this second paradigm appears to be more realistic. Based on the<br />

idea that knowledge and academia diversify rapidly, it argues that it is difficult to identify “social<br />

researchers” as a clear and homogeneous social and professional group. Their specificity is not<br />

given by their belonging to a particular institution – such as university. Instead, it is their experience<br />

and technical knowledge on certain issues that determines their specific character2. In terms of the scope of this research, the definition of three concepts – academia, policy change,<br />

and research influence – turns out to be of importance. First, we will focus on the influence that<br />

local academia exercise on trade policy decisions. Our analysis will revolve around the production –<br />

knowledge – of local academia, rather than on the ideas and findings produced by epistemic<br />

communities as defined by Haas [1992]. Even if “academia” may be a rather elusive concept to<br />

define, within this paper we will assume academia as an actor, whose peculiarity is the production<br />

of knowledge according to rules, evidence, and positive – empirical – and scientific criteria – based on<br />

measuring and contrasting.<br />

Our general working definition is based on a broad characterization of academia, rather than on the<br />

idea that academia belongs or is circumscribed to a specific ambit or production place, such as<br />

university, since we are aware that this type of knowledge is currently quite dispersed across diverse<br />

ambits, and academics are increasingly being appointed as service providers by other actors and<br />

institutions. Thus, we acknowledge the fact that in order to apprehend the concept of academia we<br />

must explicit the main changes in terms of its area of action and activities. As far as the area of<br />

action is concerned, and in the context of trade policies, academics can now be found within the<br />

so-called think-tanks and as consultants and experts in the broader social and political community:<br />

Ministries of Economy and Foreign Affairs and different public agencies, parliament, business<br />

sectors, national and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and international<br />

organizations, among others. In terms of their activities, the traditional characterization of social<br />

research seems inadequate in face of the new challenges policy-making imposes today. In this sense,<br />

Reich’s concept of “symbolic-analytical services” [1991] turns out to be of great utility given that<br />

this includes a whole set of activities regarding the identification, solution, and arbitration of<br />

material problems and disputes by means of the manipulation of knowledge.<br />

2 This is based on the expression that the expert only exists when placed in an “expertise” situation [Restier-<br />

Melleray, 1990: 546].<br />

6


In sum, we assume a vast idea of academia, which mainly revolves around the notion of<br />

“actorness”, both in the private and public fields. However, within the realm of academics and<br />

scientific production, we are interested in the information and knowledge that is produced to<br />

influence on public policies. Our focus is on policy-oriented intellectual and academic production.<br />

This leads us to a second key concept in our analysis: policy change.<br />

Discussions around policies fall into two broad areas or categories: process and product. While the<br />

former refers to the interaction, relationships, and dynamics related to the process of negotiation<br />

and influence, the latter entails taking policy as “a choice (or a series of interrelated choices) made to<br />

undertake some course of action (or inaction)” [Tussie, 2006: 10]. Our episodes of policy change refer to<br />

the trade liberalization process launched in Argentina by the end of the 1980s. However, within this<br />

long process and assuming policy to be a product or outcome of certain decisions and choices, our<br />

focus will be on two particular moments in order to apprehend the role academia had in each of<br />

these instances of policy change.<br />

Policy change refers thus to the particular ambit or context where we will specifically measure the<br />

impact of academic research. Here we will mainly rely on the categorization put forward by<br />

different authors, who basically distinguish between instrumental and conceptual changes in policy<br />

[Davies et al., 2005; Neilson, 2001; Weiss, 1991; Caplan, 1979]. Thus, academic research impact may<br />

be either instrumental by promoting small and incremental transformations in policy issues and<br />

practices, or conceptual by leading to more gradual shifts in terms of policy-makers’ knowledge and<br />

understanding towards certain issues. Following Caplan, instrumental changes are associated to<br />

“micro-level decisions” since these are limited to the day-to-day policy issues, which are mainly<br />

concerned with “bureaucratic management and efficiency rather than substantive policy issues” [1979: 462]. On<br />

the contrary, conceptual changes and transformations are related to “macro-level decisions” that<br />

involve key policy matters.<br />

This distinction must be taken as an ideal type since reality is often far more complex and changes<br />

to policies may fall somewhere on this spectrum [Tussie, 2006]. Moreover, and as we have already<br />

argued, in most cases, the impact of research and information on the policy process is only an<br />

indirect process, and here then, the diffuse enlightenment function of research turns out to be of<br />

interest in order to overcome the idea that policy-makers only turn to research and academia in an<br />

instrumental manner – to apply data, statistics, and facts to their policy decisions – and to highlight<br />

that knowledge/research utilization is built on a gradual shift in conceptual thinking over time.<br />

Nevertheless, this broad double categorization turns out to be an interesting departure line for the<br />

examination of episodes of policy change.<br />

Related to the episodes of policy change, we will see how research has worked in both cases. Our<br />

analysis will be based on the three models identified by Weiss [1991, 1979]: research as data,<br />

research as ideas, and research as argumentation. In the first case, research is intended to provide<br />

answers to the real and concrete questions and issues that policy-makers face. In a way, this<br />

characterization assumes a rather technocratic and mechanical relation between academia and<br />

policy-makers. The second group, research as ideas, is perceived to be more diffuse and general in<br />

7


nature; in this case, research is used to face complex policy issues in a context of high uncertainty.<br />

Finally, research as argumentation, is used by either policy-makers and/or interest groups may draw<br />

on this research to assume an advocacy position. Once again we are dealing with ideal types [Tussie,<br />

2006], but in order to apprehend the concrete academic-policy relationship, it is worth<br />

decomposing these three categories and see how research has contributed to these episodes of<br />

policy change.<br />

Assuming that research is only one of the many competing sources of information policy-makers<br />

can make use of, and one of the various factors that affect the final policy decision [Tussie, 2006;<br />

Garrett and Islam, 1998], our paper argues that the availability of research and ideas does not<br />

directly translate into policy change. In other words, the research-policy link is not a direct one, and<br />

ideas only influence policy decisions under certain circumstances. Under what circumstances does<br />

availability of knowledge lead to policy change? Following this line of argumentation, we define<br />

policy influence as the result of a process along which three conditions must be present. To the<br />

availability of research or the “production of knowledge”, we must add two other conditions: its<br />

articulation with the stakeholders and mainly with decision makers, and finally, its edition and the<br />

political will of decision makers to make use of it. In other words, in order to capture under what<br />

circumstances research influences the trade policy-making process, understanding how the<br />

production of research and the policy process interact in a particular context turns out to be of<br />

salience.<br />

Building on the current debate regarding the nexus between research and policy-making, and the<br />

factors that contribute to this relationship, we will analyze two key moments within the Mercado<br />

Común del Sur (Mercosur) and the integration process initially launched by Argentina and Brazil:<br />

the CGP, signed within the PICE in 1987, and the CET established in 1994.<br />

2. SETTING THE CONTEXT<br />

After decades of protectionism and of import-substitution policies, most Latin American countries<br />

(LACs) began to open up to the rest of the world in the late 1980s. Different factors converge to<br />

explain this situation: the debt crisis of 1982, dissatisfaction with the results of import-substitution<br />

strategies, and the acknowledgement that the effects on resource allocation of trade policies<br />

characterized by high and dispersed import tariffs, widespread use of quantitative restrictions and<br />

other non-tariff barriers and granting multiple exemptions to import restrictions were no longer<br />

clear. By 1987-1988, it was patent that a fundamental change was needed and that the long-standing<br />

protectionist trade policy could no longer be sustained. A process of trade reform and of reduction<br />

of the levels of protection would then be launched across the region, and gain an accelerating pace.<br />

The end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s marked a turning point in the nature of trade<br />

policies for all LACs3. 3 Except for Chile, the only country which had launched a continuous process of trade liberalization since<br />

1973, when the military coup led by Augusto Pinochet took over.<br />

8


The process of reform and liberalization of trade policies started in isolated cases by the end of the<br />

1980s, but became generalized in the early 1990s. The countries that form Mercosur were not an<br />

exception. In the case of Argentina, trade liberalization was, together with other policies – namely,<br />

privatization, state reform and deregulation – at the core of the structural reforms implemented in<br />

the 1990s. However, in the mid-1980s, and after having remained close for more than 50 years,<br />

Argentina initiates a slow but steady move towards the opening of the economy to international<br />

trade through the promotion of multiple strategies which combined unilateral opening and trade<br />

negotiations both at the regional and multilateral levels.<br />

After providing a brief analytical discussion of the process of trade reform in Argentina, this section<br />

describes two episodes of policy change: the CGP and the CET. The choice of these cases is based<br />

on the importance both decisions had within the broader process of trade liberalization initiated by<br />

Argentina in the mid-1980s. While the CGP stands out as the first step toward trade liberalization<br />

between Argentina and Brazil – though it remains as a negotiated and highly controlled opening<br />

intended to constitute an agreement of economic complementarity – the negotiation of the CET<br />

implies a crucial move toward the establishment of the customs union within Mercosur. In<br />

addition, the CET constitutes a fundamental decision. On the one hand, it would work as a lock-indevice,<br />

limiting the governments’ autonomy in terms of their trade policies. On the other hand, it<br />

complemented internal trade liberalization while, at the same time, moving towards the reduction<br />

of Mercosur external barriers. Finally, both decisions were undertaken by two different<br />

governments: whereas the first democratic government led by Raúl Alfonsín signed the PICE, the<br />

CET was established by the following administration, headed by Carlos Menem.<br />

The analysis focuses on the political context – that is, the political strategies and power relations –<br />

together with the wider historical, geopolitical, economic and social contexts regarding the decisionmaking<br />

process of each of these policies. In addition, we look into the type of decision at stake, and<br />

its place within the previous liberalization process, together with the challenges these entailed for<br />

the actors involved – both public and private. This turns out to be a key element because it allows<br />

us to see to what extent these policy options constituted a window of opportunity for the<br />

production and utilization of academic research.<br />

2.1. A FIRST MOVE TOWARDS TRADE LIBERALIZATION: ALFONSÍN AND THE PICE (1987-<br />

1989)<br />

Since the 1940s until 1976 Argentine trade policies had been marked by a strong protectionism,<br />

based on quantitative restrictions and high tariffs. The military regime that took power in 1976<br />

initially appeared to be committed to market reform and trade liberalization, but the reform process<br />

became stalled and ultimately collapsed during the economic crisis of the early 1980s. Radical<br />

reform would not get going under for another decade. However, and in spite of the stiff resistance,<br />

this thirteen-year period would lead up to reform since it was one in which the basis for important<br />

changes to come would be laid [Teichman, 2001].<br />

9


Between 1976 and 1979, the program of José Martínez de Hoz, the military-appointed civilian<br />

Minister of Economy, was a heterodox and often contradictory mix of price and exchange controls,<br />

selective tariff reduction, privatization, and state expansion. In terms of the trade policy, the reform<br />

program was uneven: while between 1976 and 1982, the average tariff rate on imports declined<br />

from 55 to 22%, a nucleus of branches producing intermediate goods considered to be “strategic”<br />

retained high tariff protection: steel, aluminium, pharmaceutical, petroleum and derivatives,<br />

transport material, and cement4. In any case, this uneven reform process was abandoned after the<br />

crisis that hit Argentina in 1979, which led to a sharp deterioration in the current account and the<br />

balance of payments, and the subsequent debt crisis of 1982. Quantitative restrictions would be<br />

then re-established in order to reduce imports and in turn, the commercial deficit.<br />

The first constitutional government would leave these measures in place, and by the end of 1983 it<br />

would also introduce a system by which products were classified according to whether they could<br />

be imported or not. Moreover, tariffs were increased since 1982, and by 1987 they would range<br />

from 0 to 105%, though the average tariff was 37% and the mode, 38%. In sum, between 1985 and<br />

1987, the predominant tariff was 53% 5.<br />

The newly elected president Raúl Alfonsín resisted strict austerity and market liberalizing measures.<br />

However, the designation of Juan Sourrouille and a new technical team of economists in the<br />

Ministry of Economy would entail an important change in 1985. This new economic team,<br />

although far from orthodox, agreed that a new economic program, including trade policy reform<br />

was needed, and that same year the Austral Plan would put trade liberalization on the agenda, which<br />

became an issue of debate between government and business. In spite of these changes, the process<br />

of trade liberalization as a unilateral policy would not start until 1988 with the so-called “Canitrot<br />

Reform” 6. While on the tariff side there was a reduction in nominal protection – the average import<br />

tax was reduced from a level of 45% in 1987 to 29% at the end of 1988 – in terms of non-tariff<br />

measures, there was an important reduction of tariff positions that were subject to quantitative<br />

restrictions: the number of products subject to prohibition or quantitative restrictions was reduced<br />

from 4.000 to 3.000, and the average tariff rate was reduced from 51 to 36% [de la Balze, 1995].<br />

Hence, by the late 1988, there was progress in the trade liberalization agenda. In addition, by 1988,<br />

attitudes within Argentine public officials toward far-reaching reform were already changing in<br />

substantial ways.<br />

Nevertheless, the decisive and final implementation of the trade liberalization reform would come<br />

hand in hand with the closer relationship between Argentina and the International Monetary Fund<br />

(IMF) and the World Bank, which would play a more definitive role in shaping the reform policy in<br />

Argentina, particularly in terms of trade policy, public sector reform, and privatization. Moreover,<br />

4 It is noteworthy that some of these industries were in the sectors controlled by the military.<br />

5 When looking at the multilateral level, we find that since World War II, trade negotiations had reduced<br />

average tariffs on manufactured and semi-manufactured goods from 40% in 1947 to less than 10% by the<br />

mid-1970s. By 1986, a new set of trade talks – the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations – had<br />

already begun, and this would lead to a tariff figure of approximately 5% in the early 1990s.<br />

6 Adolfo Canitrot was then Under Secretary of Planning, Ministry of Economy.<br />

10


the discussions with the World Bank gave the economic team and policymakers, in general, a solid<br />

argument to convince the private sector of the need to move towards trade liberalization and to<br />

overcome their opposition.<br />

It is within this context that the PICE was established in 1986. In fact, and as one respondent<br />

clearly argued, Adolfo Canitrot can be taken as “the father of the PICE”, which together with the<br />

Integration Treaty of 1988 – both signed by the presidents of Argentina and Brazil, Raúl Alfonsín<br />

and José Sarney – can be seen as the birth of the future Mercosur agreement7. As in any attempt at analyzing cause and effect or the linkages between variables and the net effect,<br />

it is difficult to pinpoint precisely the driving forces that impelled both countries to come into these<br />

agreements. Nevertheless, three factors appear to have converged in the mid-1980s to produce a<br />

major change in the political and economic environment, which in turn favoured this early<br />

integration and cooperation initiative. In the first place, the processes of political transition and<br />

return to democratic rule, with institutional reorganization in Argentina (1983) and Brazil (1985)<br />

created new incentives to redress the bilateral relations. Second, the macroeconomic and regulatory<br />

crisis of Argentina and Brazil clearly showed that the development model based on high protection<br />

and state intervention was already exhausted. In the third place, there was a perceived need to put<br />

an end to the traditional hypothesis of conflict cultivated between both countries over time. Finally,<br />

and assuming a wider perspective, another element refers to the expansion of the forces of<br />

globalization and the deepening of the multilateral system since the 1980s. Within this general<br />

context, regionalism initiatives received an enormous boost: they appeared to be useful instruments<br />

in order to avoid marginalization and at the same time, enhance their voice in the international<br />

arena [Bouzas et al., 2002; Grugel and Hout, 1999]. In sum, these initial initiatives sought mutual<br />

economic cooperation as a means to improve bilateral relationships, foster economic growth in the<br />

region, and promote a new positioning of the two countries in the international arena.<br />

In order to fulfil these objectives, the PICE was based on four principles: graduality, flexibility,<br />

equilibrium, and sectoralism [Garnelo, 1998; Laredo, 1991]. In other words, the program was based on<br />

gradual mechanisms that would be implemented in successive stages, allowing thus for adjustments,<br />

in order to promote intra-industry trade between Argentina and Brazil and the overall expansion of<br />

bilateral trade, without inducing specialization. Sectoralism, the fourth principle guiding this<br />

initiative, entailed the negotiation of sectoral agreements, whose scope was limited to three basic<br />

goals: to stimulate bilateral trade on the grounds of complementarity and political symmetry, to<br />

foster changes in the efficiency of production in key economic sectors through the expansion of<br />

bilateral investment flows, and to promote cooperation in areas of critical importance for joint<br />

economic development such as capital goods, energy, transports, and technology. This was the<br />

spirit underlying the signature of the CGP, which came into effect in 1987. Therefore, apart from<br />

7 However, the PICE was not the first agreement between the Mercosur countries leading to preferential<br />

trade among the partners. In fact, since the 1980s and within LAIA – whose members also included Bolivia,<br />

Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela – these four partners signed different bilateral<br />

agreements basically structured as positive lists of products that obtained tariff preferences as well as<br />

exceptions from non-tariff barriers. Besides, several products received LAIA’s Regional Tariff Preference,<br />

with rates that depended on the country of origin and the country giving the preference. Nevertheless, this<br />

preferential trade was rather limited.<br />

11


allowing for the recovery of the trade flows that existed before the debt crisis, the PICE was<br />

intended to reduce the trade disequilibria through, among other means, trade liberalization, greater<br />

economic complementation, and technological cooperation [INTAL, 1998].<br />

The idea of sectoral integration addressed thus two fundamental questions. On the one hand, it<br />

reflected a concern with planning and consolidating the industrial process, and, on the other, the<br />

emphasis on achieving balanced trade through sectoral agreements was intended to attenuate the<br />

fears of Argentine and Brazilian businesses regarding possible losses and diffuse political opposition<br />

to deeper integration [Valls Pereira, 1999]. In terms of the motivations underlying business sectors’<br />

interest in participating within this process, it is clear that those sectors that feared possible losses,<br />

assumed their participation as a way of ensuring their own exclusion from the final lists of<br />

products.<br />

The decision-making process on regional integration remained largely top-down, state-led, and<br />

highly dependent on presidential initiatives: the PICE was the result of the deliberations carried out<br />

mainly within the Ministry of Economy, with limited or no input from the Ministry of Foreign<br />

Affairs. Certainly, this change in the liberalization process, which would be now carried out on a<br />

regional integration basis, entailed a new challenge for the government. What role, if any, was<br />

ascribed to research and academia?<br />

Technical expertise was provided by certain research centres, but these would only become<br />

involved once the PICE was already negotiated and settled: given that their participation would be<br />

circumscribed to the implementation phase, technicians and experts did not play an influencing role<br />

on the design and negotiation of this founding agreement. This same pattern could be applied to<br />

the participation of business sectors.<br />

Even if the text of the PICE contained interesting provisions on the role of the private sector in the<br />

integration process, this was mainly circumscribed to the implementation phase as well [Gardini,<br />

2006]. The negotiation of the sectoral agreements between Brazil and Argentina was structured as a<br />

process of negotiated liberalization, while clearly avoiding a divergence in the terms of interchange.<br />

Government officials decided which sectors would be included in the PICE, and then, asked<br />

business associations in these sectors to work out agreements with their counterparts in Brazil<br />

[Schneider, 2004].<br />

Overall, however, the PICE remained reminiscent of old regionalism, mainly in terms of the<br />

participation scheme, which assumed the same pattern as that of the LAIA: interchange of<br />

concessions on products with limited domestic production, and the emergence of difficulties or<br />

conflicts when advancing on sensitive products [Bouzas and Soltz, 2005].<br />

This integration pattern presents thus two main characteristics. First, it was a cautious approach to<br />

liberalization by means of regional integration, which responded to an ideology of industrial<br />

promotion and protection, and to a state-led trade liberalization process. Secondly, it clearly<br />

reflected the prevailing rhetoric of democracy, which claimed that civil society participation was<br />

12


fundamental to energize and legitimize democratic institutions [Gardini, 2006]. This means that, in<br />

principle, political leaders perceived the need to involve business sectors in their integration plans if<br />

these were to succeed and promote an effectively democratized society. However, in practice,<br />

governments made it clear that strategic decisions would still rely on the executives, who were to<br />

design the integration scheme and only, later, during the implementation phase would business<br />

actors be called in.<br />

This first phase of integration (1986-1989) was marked by sectoral negotiations in which trade<br />

instruments predominated8. These were intended to establish tariff reduction mechanisms, the<br />

timetable and scope of liberalization, and norms on unfair practices and undesired triangulations.<br />

Macroeconomic policy harmonization was not necessary since the deals were only partial and<br />

limited, and their aims flexible or undefined. Moreover, the high level of protection that both<br />

Argentina and Brazil had in terms of third countries also favoured this lack of “detailed”<br />

cooperation in their respective trade policies [Chudnovsky and Erber, 1999]. However, after an<br />

initial period of intra-regional liberalization and rapid trade growth9 – that restored trade flows to<br />

the levels recorded prior to the external debt crisis – the exchange of concessions slowed down and<br />

trade flows reached a plateau. In other words, this sector-by-sector integration moved slowly and<br />

finally stalled by the end of the 1980s, precisely because it was so dependent on presidential<br />

initiatives [Schneider, 2004]. The sectoral approach guiding the PICE would then be replaced by a<br />

universal approach to regional trade liberalization with the Acta de Buenos Aires (1990).<br />

2.2. ACCELERATION OF THE LIBERALIZATION PROGRAM: MENEM AND THE CET (1991-<br />

1995)<br />

The new administration, headed by Carlos Menem, continued with the trade liberalization process.<br />

At first, the government’s attitude towards trade liberalization reflected continuity in the agenda<br />

imposed during 1987-198810: even if there was a rapid move toward market reform, trade<br />

liberalization would be kept in a secondary and discreet place. The economic team established a<br />

policy aimed at reducing tariffs, which moved forward progressively, but which mainly stemmed, as<br />

in the case of the previous administration, from the requirements and demands of both the IMF and<br />

8 In addition, it is noteworthy that in terms of the domestic context, important transformations would be put<br />

in place following Argentina’s worst episode of hyperinflation in 1989. Both extended recession and<br />

hyperinflation eroded confidence in Alfonsín’s government, who had to face a major political crisis as well.<br />

Elections, originally scheduled for December, were moved forward and in July 1989 the new government of<br />

President Menem assumed office, with the announcement of a new economic program and a broad reform<br />

agenda, which included privatization, inflation-reduction measures and fiscal reform – all of which would be<br />

later on packaged as the “Convertibility Plan”.<br />

9 In general terms, the outcome of this phase shows a positive result for bilateral trade. During most of the<br />

1980s, bilateral trade averaged around US$ 1.3 billion, and by 1989 it reached almost US$ 2 billion. Bilateral<br />

trade also showed certain balance given that it mainly consisted of Brazilian exports of industrial<br />

manufactures and Argentine exports of unprocessed or semi-processed foodstuffs. The PICE led to<br />

important transformations in the relationship between the two economies, even if certain domestic<br />

macroeconomic factors also account for these results [Chudnovsky et al., 2000].<br />

10 During this first stage, the Ministry of Economy would be in the hands of three different policymakers:<br />

Miguel Ángel Roig, Néstor Rapanelli, and Erman González.<br />

13


the World Bank11. Thus, between 1989 and the beginning of 1991, nominal tariffs were lowered<br />

reaching a level of 10% at the latter date, and the remaining import licenses were eliminated.<br />

Certainly, the arrival of Domingo Cavallo12 at the Ministry of Economy implied the deepening of<br />

the reform process started in 1989, and since then, trade liberalization was pushed even further. By<br />

mid-1991, the average tariff fell to an unprecedented level of 12.2%, an impulse that was partially<br />

reversed in October 1992, when the government established an extraordinary and temporary nontariff<br />

duty of 10% to almost all tariff items. Two years later, this extraordinary levy was reduced to<br />

3%. In addition, the government adopted a series of measures intended to promote exports and<br />

reduce the manufacturing costs: the reduction and elimination of different taxes and the<br />

establishment of credit facilities and measures aimed at stimulating exports.<br />

However, this reduction was not homogeneous across sectors. In fact, it was structured around<br />

groups of tariffs in order to give greater protection to goods locally produced and those used in the<br />

production process vis-à-vis those that were not produced at home together with consumption<br />

goods. Therefore, for instance, in 1992 the tariff structure established 20% for consumption goods,<br />

10% for intermediate products, and 0% for capital and intermediate goods not locally produced,<br />

while the automobile sector and electronic products remained as the two big exceptions to this<br />

scheme with a tariff of 35% [Viguera, 1998: 14].<br />

In terms of the regional integration process that had already been initiated with Brazil, in 1990 the<br />

Act of Buenos Aires implied a key transformation by establishing an approach to trade<br />

liberalization based on an automatic, linear and universal mechanism of tariff elimination. A year<br />

later, the Treaty of Asunción extended these commitments to Paraguay and Uruguay, and created<br />

the Mercosur13. The final aim was to achieve “the free circulation of goods, services and productive factors<br />

among the member countries, through the elimination of the tariff and non tariff restrictions to the circulation of<br />

merchandises and of any other equivalent measure”.<br />

Four mechanisms were included in the founding treaty in order to move towards a common<br />

market: 1. a trade liberalization program, being the final aim the establishment of a zero-tariff state<br />

by December 31st, 1994; 2. the adoption of a CET and a common commercial policy with third<br />

countries or groupings of countries as of January 1st, 1995; 3. the coordination of macroeconomic<br />

and sector policies: foreign trade, agriculture, industry, fiscal, monetary, foreign exchange, capitals,<br />

11 Unilateral trade liberalization was one of the requirements and conditionalities imposed by the IMF and the<br />

World Bank, especially in terms of the elimination of administrative restrictions and especial regimes.<br />

Nevertheless, the tariff reduction would be even larger than that proposed by these institutions; for example,<br />

the World Bank only suggested an average tariff of 25% and a maximum tariff of 40%.<br />

12 Based on the Fundación Mediterránea think-tank, Domingo Cavallo was Minister of Foreign Affairs<br />

between 1989 and 1991, and was then instrumental in the realignment of Argentina with the United States.<br />

13 During the 1990s, Argentina became increasingly interested in regional agreements, which include not only<br />

Mercosur, but other initiatives such as the trade negotiations under the Free Trade Area of the Americas<br />

(FTAA), and those aimed at establishing an agreement between Mercosur and the European Union (UE), on<br />

one hand, and with the Andean Community, on the other. Nevertheless, the most important initiative was the<br />

formation of the Mercosur together with Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.<br />

14


services, customs, transport and communications, among others; 4. sector agreements to deepen<br />

and speed up the liberalization of intra-regional trade flows [Bouzas et al., 2002].<br />

The Treaty of Asunción led thus to a process of internal liberalization, which overlapped with the<br />

later stages of unilateral trade policy reforms initiated earlier. The reduction and elimination of trade<br />

barriers among Mercosur countries were carried by means of progressive, linear and automatic<br />

reductions in import taxes, being 1995 the final deadline for the full implementation of free trade<br />

between the four partners and the establishment of the CET.<br />

The year 1991 marked an inflexion point in the process towards the establishment of the CET.<br />

After a process of unilateral liberalization and the creation of an intra-regional free trade area, the<br />

four countries engaged in negotiations for a CET with majority intra-market liberalization. This<br />

approach to intra-regional trade liberalization was shaped not only by the structural asymmetries<br />

among the partners, but also by the domestic conditions: the imperative of structural reform and<br />

the reluctance to resign autonomy in domestic policy-making. In this sense, and even if the CET<br />

worked as a lock-in-device for trade liberalization, it allowed for certain flexibility and capacity of<br />

manoeuvre, which was required by the two major partners given that they are frequently subject to<br />

internal pressures and demands calling for a partial modification of the established rules.<br />

The trade liberalization program started in 1991 with a minimum preference over most favoured<br />

nation (MFN) tariffs of 40%, which Argentina and Brazil has already reached by means of previous<br />

treaties. After this initial drop in the rates applied by each country to the imports coming from<br />

other members, successive reduction took place every six months in order to arrive at a zero tariff<br />

at the beginning of 1995. Nevertheless, exceptions were granted to this process of internal<br />

liberalization: each country had lists of products excluded from the liberalization program, and<br />

could maintain, transitorily and for a limited number of products, tariffs on imports from other<br />

Mercosur partners14. The trade liberalization program advanced as scheduled, but by the end of<br />

1994, these exemptions would be incorporated in the denominated “Adaptation Regime”, which<br />

implied a progressive and automatic reduction of tariffs in order to attain the complete elimination<br />

of these import taxes by January 1, 1999, in the case of Argentina15 and Brazil, and one year later,<br />

January 1, 2000, for Paraguay and Uruguay.<br />

14 The list and number of goods excluded from the liberalization program was as follows: Brazil had only 29<br />

such items, including wool products, peaches in can, rubber factories and wines; Argentina had 223 tariff line<br />

items on this list, where 57% of the items were steel products, 19% were textiles, and 11% were paper and<br />

6% footwear; Paraguay had 272 such tariff items, with the majority in textiles, some agricultural products,<br />

wood and steel, and finally, Uruguay had an extensive list with 953 items, including textiles (22%), chemical<br />

products and pharmaceuticals (16%), and steel and electric machinery (8%) [Bouzas, 1996]. In addition, the<br />

exchange of these “sensitive” products was subject to a very complex set of rules and restrictions. Thus,<br />

Argentine, for example, maintained quotas and prohibitions on sugar imports from its Mercosur partners.<br />

15 When analyzing the Argentine case, we find that this country’s tariff structure did not undergo significant<br />

changes until January 1st, 1995, when there was a global modification in order to adjust it to the CET. Even if<br />

this did not modify the bases of the tariff scaling, it meant the elimination of the statistical index that was<br />

then of 10%.<br />

15


When president Menem announced Mercosur and a rapid acceleration in the integration schedule –<br />

tariff reductions in five years instead of ten – he did not consult with business [Schneider, 2004].<br />

However, and given the lack of “local” studies and expertise, informal consultations were carried<br />

out with Chilean experts, who provided technical assistance in terms of the tariff policy and the two<br />

main options that were then on the agenda: the implementation of either a plain tariff or a tariff<br />

escalation scheme. Finally, the government opted for the tariff escalation, and its implementation<br />

would be done with the technical assistance of foreign experts as well. Apart from the technical<br />

challenge imposed by this decision, this also implied a political challenge both in terms of the<br />

participation of Argentina in the region and in the multilateral arena as well.<br />

During those years, regionalism and regional integration appeared as effective tools in order to<br />

facilitate entrance into a much more developed multilateral trading system. However, once again,<br />

two options were then on the agenda: the creation of either a free trade zone or a customs union.<br />

While the first option was clearly promoted by the Ministry of Economy on the basis that a free<br />

trade zone would allow for more manoeuvres in the negotiation of the foreign trade policy – a<br />

vision shared as well by certain business think-tanks such as Fundación Mediterránea and Centro de<br />

Estudios Macroeconómicos de Argentina (CEMA), the opposing option was the establishment of a<br />

customs union, an idea mainly promoted by public universities and the Economic Commission for<br />

Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).<br />

Business participation in the negotiations for the establishment of the CET was mostly precluded<br />

given the opposition they would present to the proposed escalation tariff scheme16. The<br />

implementation of the trade liberalization program, which was intended to be universal and<br />

automatic, together with the creation of Mercosur led to a participation pattern mostly based on the<br />

pressure of groups seeking protection. At several times, business actors let government officials<br />

know of the necessity of establishing side payments and other compensatory mechanisms to restore<br />

balance and maintain the incentives for all parties to participate in free trade. On the one hand,<br />

these voices were never powerful enough to convince government officials to put the issue on the<br />

agenda. However, on the other hand, it is noteworthy that the Argentine government maintained<br />

the schedule to which it had committed, ignoring thus the claims and petitions put forward by the<br />

business sectors and lobbies who called either for specific exceptions or for a delay in the agreed<br />

schedule. Certainly, this is based on the fact that the CET provides a shield against domestic<br />

pressures for increased protection. Thus, no group can seek greater protection since the<br />

government cannot grant it without violating the CET, an instrument which is beyond domestic<br />

control.<br />

A tariff escalation scheme as the one proposed with the Mercosur CET appeared to be the most<br />

viable from a technical point of view, though its political significance was even greater. In spite of<br />

some delay on the original deadlines, the bloc finally achieved free trade amongst the member<br />

countries by 1999, when the CET would finally start to rule. The adoption of the CET would entail<br />

the commitment to a long-term political project with Brazil, which in turn would allow for a better<br />

16 The presence of tariff escalation means that processing industries benefit from higher levels of protection<br />

on their value added than is evident from the nominal tariffs alone.<br />

16


insertion within the multilateral trade arena. Both the Argentine and Brazilian Ministries of Foreign<br />

Affairs strictly opposed any formal weakening of the CET, based on the argument that this was an<br />

effective policy tool aimed at opening up the economy to the rest of the world, and crucial to<br />

negotiate as a block the incorporation of Mercosur to free trade agreements both with the Western<br />

Hemisphere and Europe.<br />

Certainly, the idea of establishing a single instrument – the automatic and linear lowering of internal<br />

tariffs and the establishment of the CET – was based on efficiency and static profits, rather than on<br />

dynamic profits. Even if this vision of the integration process promoted an increase in trade and<br />

external direct investment, this would have a negative impact on the long-term growth rates, and<br />

instruments of economic policy would not be available to face the economic crisis of 1991.<br />

In sum, and after analyzing the context in which both initiatives – the CGP and the CET emerged<br />

– it is clear that two different visions of the integration process were at play. During the first years,<br />

those of the PICE, Mercosur was considered as a strategic project intended to achieve “intrasectoral<br />

integration”. This should be based on the modernization and joint development of the existing<br />

sectors that showed a loss of competitiveness. Thus agreements were established for capital goods,<br />

auto industries, and food and steel sectors, among others. In addition, these protocols included<br />

relatively new sectors with greater technological content: aeronautic industry and new materials,<br />

biotechnology, communications and telecommunications, and nuclear development, among others.<br />

Certainly inspired in the European model of integration, the core of the project was made of<br />

sectoral agreements and policy instruments that were accompanied by a general, progressive and<br />

automatic lowering of the intra-zone tariffs in order to develop joint ventures and a credit policy,<br />

which, in turn, would lead to the establishment of a single currency. What was the specific role<br />

assigned to researchers and academia in both moments? The following section is aimed at<br />

discussing this question, and the variables that either promoted or inhibited the linkage between<br />

academia and policymakers.<br />

3. CHARACTERIZATION OF THE RESEARCH-POLICY RELATIONSHIP<br />

This section explores the research-policy relationship regarding the design and implementation of<br />

the CGP and the CET, taking into account three conditions. These refer in the first place, to the<br />

existence of research: “production”. Secondly, this research must reach policymakers:<br />

“articulation”. Finally, there must be either political will or at least the possibility of putting this<br />

research into practice: “utilization”. Following this framework, each case study will be characterized<br />

according to these three elements in order to evaluate the research-policy relationship in the two<br />

episodes of policy change under study.<br />

Based on the assumption that the research-policy relationship is neither linear nor automatic, and<br />

that it entails a highly complex and dynamic two-way process [Tussie, 2006], our case studies focus<br />

on two particular instances of policy change and are intended to deepen our understanding of the<br />

17


dynamics of the political process, and assess the importance of the different factors that have<br />

contributed to these instances of policy change.<br />

3.1. THE CGP<br />

3.1.1. ACADEMIC PRODUCTION<br />

The initiative to sign a program of strategic cooperation and commercial integration was basically<br />

of a political nature.<br />

When the newly elected president, Raúl Alfonsín, asked both Dante Caputo – Minister of Foreign<br />

Affairs – and Oscar Romero – Undersecretary of International Economic Relations, Ministry of<br />

Foreign Affairs – to elaborate an integration project, his aim was to put an end to the old conflict<br />

hypothesis between Argentina and Brazil. Certainly, regional integration initiatives were not new.<br />

However, and being motivated by political and not commercial reasons, Mercosur was intended to<br />

go beyond previous experiences such as the Latin America Free Trade Association (LAFTA) and<br />

LAIA. The underlying purpose of re-establishing democracy and diminishing the relative<br />

importance of military factors mainly guided it. Finally, this is how the process advanced. There are<br />

macro-decisions, which imply a change of paradigm, and there are also micro-decisions, which can<br />

either be considered as being strategic or instrumental. Certainly, the agreement between Raúl<br />

Alfonsín and José Sarney falls within the first category given that it would initiate the move towards<br />

the common market within both countries17. During this first commercial integration initiative, the debt crisis of 1982 played a key role: it<br />

promoted closeness not only within the national governments, but mainly between Argentina and<br />

Brazil as well. Even if the debt crisis and the international financial institutions – the IMF and the<br />

World Bank – clearly demanded the initiation of a process of trade liberalization and the reform of<br />

the highly distorted tariff systems, the government opted for a process of deep integration, which,<br />

in terms of trade liberalization, entailed a minimum and negotiated opening with Brazil. The aim<br />

was to privilege the development of a productive project.<br />

According to the main actors involved in the process, this option was inspired by the European<br />

experience, which appeared as a successful case of regional integration, and by the lessons derived<br />

from the failure of LAIA. This is clearly expressed by Bruno, as cited in Campbell [1999: 74], who<br />

argues that “if we try to develop a model of multilateral integration – such as that of LAIA – we will just develop<br />

the minimum common denominator of what we can build together… if – on the contrary – we choose those countries<br />

we consider to be the most dynamic ones – Argentina and Brazil – and we attemtp to design a model of integration<br />

based on certain sectors of their economies, we will develop a model with a great degree of internal dynamism, and this<br />

is the key difference in terms of the traditional model”.<br />

Both the origin and evolution of this first approach to an integration project with Brazil were<br />

surrounded by worries. These had to do mainly with the damages the association will bring about in<br />

Argentina given the existing structural asymmetries between the new partners, and which derived<br />

17 Interview with public official.<br />

18


from the long process of sustained industrialization carried out in Brazil during the 1960s and<br />

1970s. In order to face these fears, the process would be guided by the idea of gradual integration,<br />

through selective and joint projects, advancing at different speeds. Thus, it was expected to<br />

promote industrial and trade complementation within each of the productive sectors, minimizing<br />

the negative effects on both economies, and inducing specialization in certain lines of production<br />

[Lavagna, 2001]. In terms of the negotiation procedures, the consensus was to adopt a selective<br />

scheme, by means of “positive lists” that specified where commitments were being made, rather<br />

than making broad commitments and listing exceptions. In addition, an integration process based<br />

on gradual schedules and flexible negotiation mechanisms was initiated.<br />

The basic components of the PICE included 24 sectoral protocols, signed between 1985 and 1990,<br />

and which specified the customs categories to which the agreement was to be progressively applied.<br />

Annexes to each protocol established the list of specific items subject to the tariff reduction regime.<br />

The 24 protocols were targeted to expand trade, encourage bilateral investment flows, foster<br />

cooperation in areas such as nuclear energy and biotechnology, and facilitate transportation.<br />

Within this model of deep integration, the capital goods sector was chosen as the “star” of the<br />

PICE18. Just as in the European integration process, where the Coal and Steel Community – those<br />

sectors producing basic inputs – represented the first major step towards integration, within the<br />

PICE and taking into account the economic situation of the mid-1980s and the existing structural<br />

asymmetries between both economies, the capital goods industry presented some comparative<br />

advantages. In the first place, this was the most dynamic sector of the global industry and trade.<br />

Secondly, it could have a multiplying effect over the productive structure. Finally, the capital goods<br />

industry employed a highly qualified labour force. In addition, both countries evidenced a high<br />

deficit in this sector, especially Brazil who was then compelled to import from third countries. This<br />

represented a unique opportunity for Argentina since these sectoral agreements would entail the<br />

initiation of a process of rapid industrialization, after the deindustrialization led by the former<br />

Minister of Economy, José Martínez de Hoz. In sum, within these national and regional contexts,<br />

the capital goods sector was seen as strategic since in the long term imports of capital goods would<br />

prompt an increase on the productivity of the economy, expanding exports and fostering growth.<br />

From an intellectual point of view and in terms of the debate that led to a profound liberalization<br />

process of capital goods and the elimination of non-tariff barriers, the ECLAC19 played a key role.<br />

18 The PICE consisted of 12 initial protocols. Ten of these protocols covered economic sectors, such as<br />

capital goods, food, wheat, and the iron, steel, and auto industries. Two other protocols had to do with the<br />

nuclear industry and aeronautics cooperation. While seven of these protocols sought to boost bilateral trade<br />

in specific sectors – capital goods, wheat, iron and steel, automotive industry, foodstuff industry – two more<br />

general protocols were intended to promote trade expansion and the complementarity of the food supply. In<br />

1988, there would be 22 protocols in all, and in 1989, these would finally be 24, including issues regarding<br />

trade and trade facilitating measures, scientific and technological development, and infrastructure<br />

development, among others.<br />

19 The ECLAC was established in 1948, as one of the five regional commissions of the United Nations.<br />

Aimed at contributing to the economic development of the region, reinforcing economic relationships<br />

among the countries, and promoting social development as well, the ECLAC had a leading role during<br />

the 1960s and 1970s, when the region experienced a profound and diverse move toward regionalism. This<br />

19


Two main reasons account for this. In the first place, and given that most of the members of the<br />

economic team had been trained in the ECLAC, they shared many of the assumptions and<br />

paradigmatic guidelines promoted by this regional organization. Secondly, and especially regarding<br />

the country office in Buenos Aires, ECLAC’s experts had undertaken industrial policy as an<br />

important area of research20. This clearly explains the active role ECLAC had in the definition<br />

and design of the CGP21. The private sector was also involved in the design of the macro proposal, but it did not present any<br />

concrete written document regarding the final text of the CGP. Business participation was induced<br />

by the government as a way of preventing conflicts and technical difficulties within both<br />

administrations. The summoning was immediate and once Argentina and Brazil had already given<br />

the first step towards regional integration by the end of 1985.<br />

At the presidential meeting that took place in Foz de Iguazú in November 1985, Argentina and<br />

Brazil agreed to establish a high-level bilateral commission. Comprised of government and private<br />

sector representatives, this commission was intended to discuss and launch bilateral integration.<br />

Oscar Romero recalls that this decision was based on the fact that “the integration process design and the<br />

design of the concrete solidarity scheme between both countries, should not be developed at the grey desk of a bureaucrat<br />

or political official; instead this should result from the participation of real actors or economic agents. Both presidents<br />

decided to include the most representative private agents, businessmen and business groups from both countries, so that<br />

they would not protect the apples, the rice or the meat, but instead would be the individuals capable of helping in the<br />

design of the bilateral relationship that we so much needed ” [Romero, as cited in Campell, 1999: 65].<br />

Once the CGP had been signed, governments embarked in the difficult task of composing the<br />

positive lists of the products and items to be liberalized. This implementation phase involved the<br />

direct participation of an external expert, especially appointed by the Argentine government given<br />

the lack of technical knowledge and expertise in this particular area. Only a reduced number of<br />

companies, from some highly concentrated sectors and oligopolies – namely, the iron and steel, and<br />

the petrochemical industries – counted with this extremely specialized information and expertise<br />

given that they had also been part of the negotiations carried out within both LAFTA and LAIA.<br />

However, these sectors were not included in the agreement22. Daniel Chudnovsky, an academic with no previous experience in public administration, was then<br />

appointed for the implementation of the CGP. Apart from drawing numbers and comparative<br />

statistics regarding the situation of the capital goods sector in Argentina and its potential<br />

complementarity with Brazil, Chudnovsky’s designation was intended to fulfil two crucial<br />

was mainly influenced by the ECLAC philosophy, and the ideas of its first Secretary-General, the economist<br />

Raúl Prebisch.<br />

20 The report presented by ECLAC was the basis for the Integration Act signed by Argentina and Brazil in<br />

July 1986, which would be the juridical departure line for the PICE.<br />

21 Interview with public official.<br />

22 Interview with academic.<br />

20


objectives. First, he had to advice policymakers during the negotiations, and secondly, he had to<br />

persuade producers in the machines tools industries about the feasibility of a productive<br />

complementarity agreement with Brazil23. Persuading business groups was not an easy assignment<br />

since the positive lists prompted serious fears among Argentine manufactures, who were concerned<br />

at the larger size and greater competitiveness of Brazilian producers [Chudnovsky and Erber, 1999].<br />

In fact, it demanded an active role and effort to put across these groups the differences between<br />

this new integration scheme and the unilateral liberalization implemented during the 1970s, which<br />

had had a terrible and devastating impact on these industries.<br />

Financed with the aid of the World Bank, the project developed by Chudnovsky entailed the<br />

elaboration of positive lists of those items and products that Argentina would offer Brazil during<br />

the final round of negotiations. These products would be marketed with a zero tariff and would be<br />

free of any non-tariff barriers by January 1987, after the entry into force of the CGP. The final<br />

composition of these positive or common lists was determined by the participation of different<br />

national manufacturers, and the acceptation and/or refusal of each partner’s proposal.<br />

3.1.2. RESEARCH-POLICY ARTICULATION<br />

As we have already mentioned, both the idea of promoting a closer relationship with Brazil and the<br />

actual first negotiations were articulated within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. During this initial<br />

stage, negotiations and discussions were mainly political in nature, and were handled by the Ministry<br />

of Foreign Affairs. Capitalizing on the presidential political discourse and mandate, which urged for<br />

close ties with Brazil and the elimination of the old conflict hypothesis, policymakers within this<br />

Ministry – namely, Oscar Romero and Carlos Bruno – decided to promote a trade agreement<br />

between both countries. When asked about the initiation of this process, one of the academic<br />

respondents commented that public officials “got together as if they were spies organizing a command<br />

attack, away from the noise; the idea was so awkward that they could not get together in a meeting room as it<br />

happens today… the whole process remained as highly informal. During this first stage, the Ministry of Economy<br />

knew nothing about this project; it was mainly focused on the debt and inflation problems”.<br />

However, in 1985, during the definition of the final design and implementation of the initiative, the<br />

Ministry of Economy was assigned the whole responsibility for this. Two reasons explain this<br />

decision: the articulation with the private sector, and the technical issues at stake. In effect, the<br />

Secretary of Industry, Daniel Chudnovsky, and his political counterpart, Jorge Campbell,<br />

Undersecretary of Foreign Trade, launched a round of meetings with different sectoral chambers,<br />

especially with the Metallurgical Industrialists Association of the Argentine Republic (ADIMRA),<br />

and different individual industries.<br />

Hence, the Ministry of Economy would gradually acquire an increasingly leading role in the<br />

initiative. Nevertheless, this new situation did not generate the mistrust of the Ministry of Foreign<br />

Affairs, and did not give way to a duplication of efforts. In fact, the heads of both Ministries were<br />

deeply involved in the process – Juan Sourrouille and Dante Caputo, respectively. They worked on<br />

23 Interview with academic.<br />

21


the project on a team basis, and shared the same vision and idea regarding the integration process<br />

with Brazil24. This personal relation and connection would also be strengthened by the<br />

interministerial coordination achieved after the parliamentarian elections of 1985, which reinforced<br />

Alfonsín’s leadership. In turn, this would lead to the incorporation of an important number of<br />

officials and technical experts in the Secretary of Industry and Foreign Trade (SICE), who were<br />

deeply committed to the integration process with Brazil. This project was regarded as a possible<br />

motor of the trade liberalization scheme, or even as a means of positive adjustment. In sum, by the<br />

end of 1985, an interministerial taskforce was already in place. This relied on direct access to the<br />

highest political officials and policymakers, and its main objective was to promote the technical<br />

issues on the negotiating agenda. This taskforce was assisted and complemented by the private<br />

sector, which was acting in the shadows and was led by the so-called “captains of industry” 25.<br />

Nevertheless, this idyllic relationship would not last long and would finally come to an end in 1987,<br />

when Roberto Lavagna and his team left the SICE, and was replaced by Beatriz Nofal, after the<br />

defeat of the Radical Party in the 1987 legislative elections.<br />

Based on the suggestions and proposals presented by the different chambers and industrial sectors,<br />

Daniel Chudnovsky elaborated the final positive lists regarding national capital goods. In those<br />

cases where consensus could not be built among two or more chambers producing the same<br />

product or item, the government would directly eliminate it from the final common lists given that<br />

there were no adequate instruments to perform a technical evaluation of the competitive situation<br />

of the different products; what in turn revealed the government’s lack of capability to avoid<br />

conflictive situations [Chudnovsky, 1987].<br />

This would result in a dynamic quite different from the one proclaimed in the PICE: the promotion<br />

of intra-industry restructuring and specialization. On the contrary, the common lists that had been<br />

agreed upon at the national level would only allow for the promotion of trade in terms of the lines<br />

of production in which each country had already specialized, and did not include or affect those<br />

sub-sectors or branches of activity that showed greater reticence about this market opening26. 3.1.3. UTILIZATION IN DECISIONS<br />

24 Interview with academic.<br />

25 At the same time, though showing greater confidentiality, an informal working and advice group was<br />

created with these “captains of industry” in order to gather their political endorsement to the initiatives. Later<br />

on, this same group will form part of the mixed commission. The “captains of industry” was the name given<br />

to the economic groups that grew as state suppliers, and which, as detailed in Campbell [1999: 110], included<br />

the following business representatives: Jorge Haieck (SOCMA), Eduardo Braun (ASTARSA), Ricardo Zinn<br />

(SEVEL), Guillermo Livio Kühl (SAAB – Scania), Jaime Núñez (BAGLEY), Vittorio Orsi (SADE), Miguel<br />

Roig (Bunge y Born), Carlos Bulgheroni (BRIDAS), Carlos Tramutola (Propulsora), Alberto Hojman (BGH),<br />

and Sebastian Bagó (Laboratorios Bagó).<br />

26 In effect, as far as Argentina was concerned, the proposal focused on a certain type of machines tool<br />

industry of specific use, and in whose production costs smelting pieces impinged much more than sheet,<br />

aluminium, and metallic profiles. In the case of Brazil, on the contrary, capital goods intensive in iron and<br />

steel or of serial production predominated [Porta and Fontanals, 1989].<br />

22


The list elaborated by the SICE was part of the negotiation with Brazil. The agreement – the<br />

protocol on goods – entered into force at the beginning of 1987. The initial list included 224 items,<br />

a list that would go on enlarging in the subsequent years by means of successive rounds of<br />

negotiations and following the same initial dynamic. The sectors included in the voluntary tariff<br />

reduction referred to most of the electric and non-electric equipment and machinery and their<br />

components and pieces, together with automobile components. Electrical equipments and parts,<br />

and transport vehicles were excluded from the common lists, and they were subject to a separate<br />

sectoral negotiation [Porta and Fontanals, 1989].<br />

Negotiations regarding trade in wheat and food supply – Protocols 2 and 3 – were as successful as<br />

the previous one. Given that Protocol 2 was intended to promote a balanced exchange for<br />

Argentina and to make up for existing asymmetries, it established annual commitments for the<br />

purchase of this product by Brazil and other technical issues – such as the prices calculation, ports<br />

and schedules for loading. As far as Protocol 3 is concerned, its main objective was different from<br />

the others since it was not aimed at promoting trade liberalization or elaborating lists; instead, it<br />

defined a common list of fruits, vegetables and dairy products that would be mutually provided in<br />

case of undersupply.<br />

The remaining protocols – steel and iron industry, automotive and food sectors – had to face<br />

numerous difficulties in their implementation, and had a relatively small commercial impact during<br />

this first phase of the integration process. In this sense, for example, the steel and iron agreement<br />

had only a limited scope, leaving aside the main products. The automotive protocol, on the<br />

contrary, was successively postponed since there was no agreement regarding the small print.<br />

Actually, according to those that took direct part in the negotiations, an important element was<br />

missing: the support of the private actors involved in the process. This was clearly expressed by one<br />

of the interviewed academics: “Opening the final sectors without ensuring the previous liberalization of the<br />

intermediate sectors and/or the elimination of the subsidies granted to sheet entailed higher costs for the Argentine<br />

manufacturer, who was thus obliged to buy sheet at a higher price than the one paid by his competitor, the Brazilian<br />

manufacturer, and consequently his production was not competitive”. A similar evaluation was provided by<br />

another interviewee in terms of the automotive sector: “The automotive sector offered several advantages to<br />

be liberalized first: in the first place, consensus building within the sector was easy to achieve since only five companies<br />

comprised 90% of the total market; and, secondly, the sector allowed for a specialization criterion. We proposed this<br />

scheme to Brazil, but companies would only accept it in 1991, when Mercosur ensured universal, automatic, and<br />

linear reductions” 27.<br />

Out of the six protocols dealing with production integration, the CGP was the only one to promote<br />

liberalization, generating in turn quite important results in terms of the broader integration project,<br />

which was certainly complex as well. The implementation of this agreement led to a large increase<br />

in trade: between 1986 and 1990, regional trade in those products included in Protocol 1 grew from<br />

U$S16.7 to U$S 95.5 millions and this accounted for a notable 472% growth. These benefits were<br />

even greater for Argentina than for Brazil. While trade in capital goods represented just 50% of<br />

27 Interview with public official.<br />

23


Brazil’s total exports, in the case of Argentina this stood at 80%. In qualitative terms, this increase<br />

also benefited Argentina through the diversification of its export supply.<br />

Nevertheless, this was a short-term process and one of limited scope. Different analyses emphasize<br />

that even if the CGP led to an increase in productivity and a better use of installed capacity in both<br />

countries, there were neither significant investments nor important transformations in the structure<br />

of the national supply. In effect, difficulties in the availability and conditions of credit to acquire<br />

capital goods and the perception that this was not definitive hindered the decision-making of<br />

Argentine producers in the medium-term. In addition, the increase in bilateral trade – by 40%<br />

between 1985 and 1988 – was circumscribed to certain sectors, particularly capital goods and wheat,<br />

products of relative importance in macroeconomic terms. Most of the relevant productive sectors<br />

had only a marginal or symbolical participation in the impact of the integration initiative. Moreover,<br />

they did not seem to be interested in assuming a more active role in the near future. These included<br />

the steel and iron industry, different branches of the food sector, and the automotive complex.<br />

For many of those who took part in the narrated events, the PICE was the only experience where<br />

academic results were the source, and, moreover, the unique source of knowledge and advice in the<br />

trade policy decision-making process. This leads us to both the facilitating and inhibiting factors in<br />

this particular research-policy relationship.<br />

A first factor refers to the novelty. This issue was new not only for public officials but for the<br />

private sector involved in the decision-making as well. It should be noted that these were the first<br />

steps promoted by a democratic government after years of military dictatorship. Even if there had<br />

been previous trade liberalization processes – the negotiation of tariff preferences within LAIA<br />

during the 1970s – the military coup would then disarticulate these networks by breaking the<br />

constitutional order and replacing public officials and cabinets. The only sectors that were involved<br />

in this learning process were those related to the most concentrated sectors of the economy and<br />

which also experienced a large economic growth during the military coup – such as the steel and<br />

iron industry, or the automotive and petrochemical industries. However, these sectors did not<br />

participate in the formulation or implementation of the CGP, which was limited to smaller sectors<br />

and industries.<br />

The second element that accounts for the influence academics had vis-à-vis other actors involved in<br />

the decisional process refers to the relative poor capacity or ability of the sector to respond or<br />

produce alternative strategies. In effect, the capital goods industry is not a concentrated sector in<br />

Argentina. Unlike other sectors showing great political leverage – such as the steel and iron<br />

industry, or the automotive and petrochemical industries – it is highly disarticulated and does not<br />

have a strong and clear labour organization. This allowed the executive to design and implement<br />

the sectoral opening without consulting with the actors involved.<br />

Finally, a third element that can help us explain the leading role academia played in the formulation<br />

and implementation of the liberalization process that was launched from 1986 to 1991 refers to the<br />

integration model adopted. A selective, gradual and complementary approach to trade liberalization<br />

24


hindered all pressure or lobby activities that the private sector would have developed in the case of<br />

a generalized, automatic and horizontal strategy. The trade liberalization process implemented later<br />

on by Carlos Menem would lead to this pattern of business pressure. During this first phase,<br />

however, by offering a space for academic influence, the PICE also limited its own effectiveness to<br />

achieve a deep and sustainable integration process.<br />

3.2. THE CET<br />

3.2.1. ACADEMIC PRODUCTION<br />

The Treaty of Asunción, signed by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay in 1991 replaced the<br />

strategic project aimed at achieving intra-sectoral integration, and gave way to Mercosur. This initial<br />

vision was now substituted by another conception of the integration process based on a single<br />

instrument: a trade liberalization program that emphasized an automatic, linear and universal<br />

mechanism of tariff elimination within the zone [Lavagna, 2001]. This founding treaty also<br />

established, among other issues, the design and implementation of a CET, which would compel the<br />

member states to subordinate their trade policies towards third countries, to the one settled within<br />

the bloc.<br />

In operative terms, the definition of the CET was an extremely complex assignment given the<br />

structural asymmetries among the partners, which in turn reflected in their divergent tariff systems.<br />

Those countries which exhibited less diversified productive structures – such as Paraguay and<br />

Uruguay – objected the idea of granting tariff preferences to the larger partners, while Argentina<br />

and Brazil showed differences in terms of the most competitive sectors, an element that added<br />

more complexity to the process and the possibility of building consensus [Giorgi et al., 2003].<br />

Mercosur governments assigned the design of the CET to the Common Market Group (GMC,<br />

from Grupo Mercado Común), and within this, the then SGT 10 – which dealt with issues related to<br />

macroeconomic policy coordination – would be in charge of examining and analyzing the CET28. During the first two years, national delegations focused on the exchange of their own harmonized<br />

national systems of nomenclature, and the elaboration of consensual rules and basic criteria for the<br />

creation of the CET. Given the existing diversity between tariff systems, consensus was easily<br />

achieved for the establishment of an escalated external tariff system, which would include at least<br />

three positions. However, difficulties emerged in terms of which tariff level each sector would be<br />

attributed. In order to overcome these important differences, it was agreed that the negotiation<br />

would be carried out on the basis of the different proposals taken to the negotiating table. These<br />

were to be presented by May 1992.<br />

Faced with this schedule, national governments required different academic studies and analyses.<br />

The elaboration of these proposals entailed big challenges for the governments in terms of the<br />

complexity of the issue: each country had diverse nomenclatures and tariff systems, and there were<br />

28 Later on, the Treaty of Ouro Preto (1994) would introduce important transformations within the<br />

institutional structure of Mercosur, such as the reorganization of the different SGT within the GMC. Thus,<br />

for example, the SGT 10, which had up to then focused on macroeconomic policy coordination, would now<br />

deal with related social and labour issues.<br />

25


no comparative statistical analyses. Apart from this basic survey, another important task had to do<br />

with the evaluation of the different possible scenarios and their expected impact on each of the<br />

national productive sectors.<br />

At the regional level, similar surveys were carried out. In 1993, the GMC appointed an expert, who<br />

was part of a research centre associated to the Brazilian government, the Instituto de Pesquisa<br />

Econômica Aplicada (IPEA). Financed with the technical aid provided by the EU and the Inter-<br />

American Development Bank (IADB), Honorio Kume was designated to perform this survey, and<br />

to assist national governments in the meetings of the GMC, where he turned out to be an active<br />

participant.<br />

In Argentina, the need to come up with a proposal for the CET gave way to a superposition of<br />

studies and the appointment of different working groups. In all, three special studies can be<br />

identified.<br />

A first group was composed of technical experts from the Ministry of Economy, who were to fulfil<br />

certain tasks regarding Mercosur, and academics from the Faculty of Economy at the Universidad<br />

de Buenos Aires (UBA) 29. This group was coordinated and financed through the Ministry’s budget<br />

and its main objective was to collect all the existing information about the tariff positions in the<br />

four member countries in order to build a comparative matrix. This survey was guided by the<br />

demands and particular requirements of the officials of this public agency, who were also part of<br />

the different working groups within Mercosur. In addition, these technical experts elaborated<br />

proposals and reports that were raised to the negotiators30. A second survey was appointed by the Ministry of Economy: financed through loans from the<br />

United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the survey was commissioned to a group of<br />

academics selected on a personal basis. The fees of these appointed experts tripled those of the<br />

Ministry officials who were responsible for the negotiation process, a situation that was thus<br />

regarded with suspicion. Even if the aims of this consultancy group were to provide advice and<br />

contribute to the design of the CET, the directives and parameters of the research were settled by<br />

the Undersecretary, and did not necessarily respond to the requirements of the actual negotiators.<br />

Instead, this group relied heavily on the information that they already had and on a matrix showing<br />

input data that was outdated.<br />

29 The tasks were divided between the UBA academics and the technical experts: while the latter focused on<br />

the development of the parameters – since there was a perceived need for this information during the<br />

negotiations – and the coordination of the different activities within this joint group, the former worked on<br />

the comparative study and elaborated diverse statistical measures given that this data was of great utility<br />

during the negotiations [Interview with public official].<br />

30 As one public official stated: “However, one asks for instructions, but we also make proposals and suggest, for instance,<br />

that all goods produced in the region should be protected, while those produced in third countries could be applied a tariff between<br />

0 and 2%. Nevertheless, the final decision – the exact level of the tariffs to be applied – lay in the hands of the Ministers.<br />

Therefore, they would just agree and decide that the maximum tariff level would be of 20% and that, then, this should be<br />

escalated by 2 in 2. These were the guidelines they gave for the elaboration of the CET proposals”.<br />

26


The Ministry of Foreign Affairs developed some documents and reports on this issue as well. Julio<br />

Berlinski, an economist from Universidad Di Tella, was appointed for this survey. He was an<br />

external advisor, a specialist in tariffs, and someone who had already had some experience working<br />

for previous administrations. Berlinski had been working on the tariff issue and was asked to define<br />

the criteria for the CET. Unlike public experts from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Berlinski had a<br />

global vision of the whole situation that allowed him to develop a more comprehensive analysis,<br />

different from that of a public expert who would have just taken the Argentina tariff system and<br />

consult with the private sector on the basis of the demands put forward by Brazil31. While the private sector had only a limited role during the negotiation of the CGP, during the<br />

design of the CET business groups played an active role in the process. Some documents and<br />

reports were elaborated by these groups as well: some of them had an operative nature and were<br />

intended to contribute to the survey and harmonization process of the regional tariffs, others were<br />

rather theoretical, and by proposing hypothetical scenarios were intended to promote the public<br />

debate. In the first case, the most successful example was the report presented by the chamber of<br />

chemical and petrochemical industries, which was able to harmonize the different interests and<br />

present a joint proposal to Mercosur governments. As soon as the initiative was launched, chamber<br />

members reacted immediately: they decided to anticipate to the governments and presented a<br />

sectoral proposal. This was expressed by one of the leaders of this chamber, who recalled that only<br />

the petrochemical sector would elaborate a proposal regarding a future nomenclator: “… we held<br />

meetings during four months; every 15 days, 20 people per country got together. Moreover, this nomenclator is still<br />

valid today since it has barely undergone any changes. Governments signed it… (…) We were the only sector that<br />

carried out such a task, but in fact we were the only ones that would need to do so since the steel and iron sector<br />

includes 14 chapters of the nomenclator while the chemical sector includes 2.849 tariff lines, and stands for 30% of<br />

the total number of lines… (…). We finished this report… (…) and then said that that would be the tariff system<br />

to be applied; because it had been said that it would be proportional to the added value. So we determined what the<br />

added value should be and proposed our own tariff scale. We ended up presenting a proposal, which was also a joint<br />

proposal – only with Brazil, for the time being – from 2 to 16. The government accepted it and made a slight<br />

modification: from 2 to 14, but they did respect the escalated scheme”. It is worth mentioning that the chamber<br />

of chemical and petrochemical industries had been deeply involved within the negotiations of<br />

LAIA. Certainly, this previous experience had led to a learning process and these business actors<br />

were then much better prepared to face the bargaining process within Mercosur.<br />

In the second case, we refer to the study published by Fundación de Investigaciones Económicas<br />

Latinoamericanas (FIEL), whose pro-market philosophy had become well-known with the<br />

publication of the book “El comercio administrado de los '90: Argentina y sus socios. The book, which had<br />

been written between 1992 and 1993, had been financed by a United States foundation and focused<br />

on the consequences that a pro-Free Trade Area of the Americas strategy, or one towards<br />

Mercosur, would entail for Argentina32. 31 Interview with academic.<br />

32 Interview with academic.<br />

27


3.2.2. RESEARCH–POLICY ARTICULATION<br />

Most of the documents and studies we have just detailed were the result of either an appointment<br />

or a special request made by the governments to those academics involved in the in-house thinktanks.<br />

One could affirm that the articulation between policymakers and researchers was therefore<br />

guaranteed. However, this did not completely apply to the real situation. In the first place, only one<br />

of these different reports did get to the Argentina negotiators in due time and proper form. This<br />

was the report elaborated by the experts and academics of the Ministry of Economy and the UBA,<br />

respectively. Unlike the others, this study was the result of a teamwork, which certainly fulfilled the<br />

demands and requirements of the negotiators in due time. Moreover, negotiators were also actively<br />

involved in its elaboration. In turn, these meant that the working group could have access not only<br />

to information, but to the own instructions of the negotiating group as well.<br />

A second group of studies, which include the reports by Kume and Berlinksi, were also produced in<br />

proper form and in response to the demands and urgencies specified by the negotiators. In effect,<br />

both studies were intended to fulfil the same demand: the identification of the criteria to harmonize<br />

the nomenclators of the countries in order to attain a common denominator. In the case of Kume,<br />

the report arrived too late to the desk of the Argentine negotiators: “By the time Kume had finished this<br />

study, it was already too late; the decision-making process was already over; the delay was terrible… We did have a<br />

close relationship with him; in fact, he attended the meetings held between the four governments, and was a keen<br />

supporter of Mercosur; he provided negotiators with regular reports. Nevertheless, the final document he elaborated<br />

could not be taken as input for the final policy decision since it arrived once this had already been agreed on. I then<br />

took it to the library, and I think this turned out to be useful to me, but only later on” 33.<br />

On the other hand, the usefulness of the report by Kume was only relative, at least regarding the<br />

elaboration of the positions of the national negotiators since it mainly focused on the distributive<br />

struggle in which each country would try his best to assure the survival of the most sensitive<br />

sectors. As one academic expressed it, “these surveys and reports were helpful not for making decisions, but<br />

rather in terms of the advice they provided governments, for instance, during the CET negotiations, which entailed<br />

settling a common tariff for over 9.000 positions for the more than 90 chapters of the nomenclator… Some reports<br />

were elaborated, and then we analyzed which products could be raised or lowered… In addition, when we had to<br />

negotiate within the SGT 1 [the SGT on Trade Issues] we really needed to know what they were asking for, but<br />

at the same time we had to move towards the dismantling of the tariff barriers, so we needed to be informed of what we<br />

should ask for, what we should not demand; where we could push further, where we could yield our positions; and<br />

what problems could then come up…” 34.<br />

As far as the report by Berlinski is concerned, its utility was limited to the provision of arguments<br />

to the negotiators of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs given that the technical issue was still<br />

centralized in the hands of the Ministry of Economy officials. The great difficulty was that this<br />

academic did not have the chance to work with the negotiators, who had then the latest and most<br />

accurate information. Instead, his study was only a laboratory experiment. Another problem this<br />

33 Interview with public official.<br />

34 Interview with academic.<br />

28


work had to face referred to the lack of continuity in time, which would limit its utility to an<br />

exclusive issue of political legitimacy: “I think negotiations are a process, along which papers are irrelevant.<br />

Papers and documents can provide ideas and advice, but the consultant should somehow participate along this whole<br />

negotiating process. However, this is never the case; or at least this was not my experience. I may be partly guilty for<br />

this since I find politicians boring. I believe that they are not interested in showing all what they know to us [the<br />

academics]. Assuring continuity is what really matters. But in real terms, nobody is interested in establishing a<br />

certain amount of tariffs because this is a quite complicated task, so a particular case is just taken, and in the end, it<br />

turns out to be useless” 35.<br />

The other studies and reports, together with the consultancy jobs that were appointed by the<br />

government between 1991 and 1994, were not intended to contribute to the definition of the<br />

Mercosur CET, but to promote the public debate in favour of a process of deep integration with<br />

Brazil. The initiative came from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and mainly from Alieto Guadagni,<br />

who relied on international research centres, think-tanks and the financing provided by the UNDP<br />

and the IADB, either to appoint or to put positions in the Ministry out to tender. Different<br />

research centres, representing a wide variety of ideological assumptions, were chosen for these<br />

appointments, according to their expertise in the different negotiating issues: CEMA, FIEL,<br />

Universidad Di Tella, and Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO-Argentina).<br />

There was thus a clear division of labour: “Schenone, from Fundación Mediterránea, was appointed to work<br />

on the establishment of a regional market of capital goods; academics from FIEL were asked to analyze labour<br />

asymmetries and the tariff system of public services, while ECLAC specialists would have to focus on issues of<br />

macroeconomic coordination” 36.<br />

Guadagni intended to summon political will to promote Mercosur, and constitute a solid critique in<br />

terms of the confrontation he had with the Ministry of Economy, headed by Domingo Cavallo and<br />

who had been Minister of Foreign Affairs from 1989 to 1991. This was expressed by one of the<br />

public officials involved in the process: “There was certain inertia – especially in terms of the proposed opening<br />

within Mercosur – in some sectors of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who were suspicious of Brazil and clearly<br />

preferred an agreement with the United States. What we did was to take the agreement signed by Alfonsín and<br />

Sarney, and extend it. There were conflicts, and quite important ones (within the Cabinet itself), that were never<br />

made public. I would now like to tell you an anecdote. Before the ratification of the Treaty of Ouro Preto, Cardoso –<br />

who had just been elected President of Brazil – made his first official visit to Argentina. During this visit, a meeting<br />

was organized in Olivos [Olivos Presidential Residence]. The then Minister of Economy, who was also late for<br />

this bilateral meeting, proposed an integration arrangement different from that of Mercosur. Those present made no<br />

comments on this proposal until the following reunion where Cardoso was told that such a scheme was not valid at<br />

all”.<br />

The Minister of Economy, Domingo Cavallo, was not interested at all in deepening Mercosur.<br />

Instead he veered towards the establishment of a free trade zone with Brazil. The underlying reason<br />

for this was that the entrance of Argentina into a customs union would entail loosing autonomy in<br />

35 Interview with academic.<br />

36 Interview with public official.<br />

29


the handling of the trade policy given that the final aim was to establish a common tariff. In turn,<br />

this limitation would also affect the external trade policy, which in the context of the Convertibility<br />

Plan was the only area where economic policy could be implemented. In this sense, the pressure<br />

exercised by the Unión Industrial Argentina (UIA/Argentine Industrial Union) turned out to be<br />

quite functional to the Minister’s interests. On the other hand, the increasing power Cavallo had<br />

over national politics, which was based on his successful Convertibility Plan, turned out to be quite<br />

a positive signal for private sectors about the fact that the Treaty of Ouro Preto was not mature<br />

enough and that it would not be signed.<br />

Certainly, the struggle between both Ministries – Economy and Foreign Affairs – facilitated the<br />

joint and effective work done by academics and negotiators from 1991 to 1993. Unlike what had<br />

been the experience in trade policy formulation in Argentina, the private sector was not involved in<br />

the elaboration of the CET, which in turn allowed for this to be the result of technical studies based<br />

on empirical evidence, at least in terms of the Argentine negotiating team.<br />

3.2.3. UTILIZATION IN DECISIONS<br />

During the negotiation among the four governments for the establishment of the common<br />

nomenclator, other issues were brought which demanded consensus building: the agricultural, the<br />

capital goods, and the computer and telecommunications sectors. Argentina and Brazil had<br />

different and opposing positions in terms of these sectors, and these were certainly difficult to<br />

solve37. During these discussions, the studies and analyses that most helped the Argentine<br />

delegation were those produced by the joint team of experts from the Ministry of Economy and the<br />

UBA. Nevertheless, when negotiating, the national delegation showed both lack of internal<br />

coordination and political will. Negotiations come to a halt when Cavallo decided to promote a<br />

closer relationship with the United States, and the subsequent signature of a free trade agreement.<br />

Thus, the position of the Argentina negotiators and experts within the GMC became blurred.<br />

By the mid-1993, it was quite evident that the schedule settled by the Treaty of Asunción regarding<br />

the establishment of the CET – January 1, 1995 – could not be fulfilled. Even if the process of<br />

harmonization had already reached 95% of the whole tariff universe, there were still crucial debates<br />

to be solved [Berlinski et al., 2005]. It is then that Brazil decides to assume the leadership in the<br />

debate both in political and operative terms.<br />

At the operative level, Brazil managed to impose its own tariff scheme since there was no major<br />

resistance from Paraguay and Uruguay. Thus, the structure of the CET would be established<br />

37 In terms of the agriculture sector, Brazil intended to establish low nominal aliquots, an idea that Argentina<br />

refused since it feared that the establishment of lower tariffs for products such as powder milk, wheat, meat<br />

or rice, would hinder the entrance of Argentine products to the Brazilian market when competing with the<br />

subsidized prices of third countries. In the case of capital goods, Argentina wanted to place this sector in one<br />

of the lowest levels of protection since this would allow upgrading equipment and processing and product<br />

technologies, through the acquisition of cheaper equipments and technologies in the international market.<br />

However, Brazil rejected the proposal. Finally, and as far as the computer and telecommunications goods<br />

were concerned, Brazil was determined to establish high tariffs, remaining thus as the exclusive supplier in the<br />

region [Giorgi et al., 2003].<br />

30


around the lowest tariffs – from 5 to 10% – for those inputs of diffused utilization – steel and iron<br />

products, chemical and petrochemical products, cellulose and paper – and the highest tariffs stood<br />

for final goods, both durable and non-durable, which where settled at the top of the list with an<br />

average tariff of 18%-19%. Alimentary goods, especially the elaborated ones, remained at an<br />

intermediate level with an average tariff of 14%. Tariffs for fuel reached an almost zero-tariff state.<br />

In political terms, Brazil held meetings with the highest Argentina officials, and explicitly rejected<br />

the latter’s proposal to call off the establishment of a customs union and limit the integration<br />

process to a free trade area. Moreover, Brazil posed a serious threat: the removal of Argentina’s<br />

preferential access to the Brazilian market, especially for wheat and cars, the only sectors where<br />

exports were then growing. Faced with this threat, and given that United States no longer seemed<br />

to be interested in the idea of signing a free trade agreement, the Argentine president – Carlos<br />

Menem – expressed his firm decision, that of keeping the commitments previously assumed in<br />

Asunción and creating a customs union within Mercosur.<br />

Argentina’s repositioning through the acceptance of the customs union led to a reversal in the<br />

domestic scenario, and the business sectors, which until then had only had a marginal role regarding<br />

the meetings and negotiations of the CET, suddenly moved to action.<br />

With the only exception of the sectoral chamber of chemical and petrochemical industries that had<br />

been actively and enthusiastically participating in the meetings held by the SGT 3 – group mainly<br />

dealing with technical norms and regulations – since the signature of the Treaty of Asunción, other<br />

private sectors clearly believed that the customs union would not be established. In fact, “most of the<br />

chambers and sectors in general did not participate; neither did they come to know about it. What is commonly being<br />

said, that business actors came to know about this project through the newspaper, is quite true. We [the<br />

negotiators] did not receive any proposals from the business sectors. Therefore, as we had no proposals, we had no<br />

instructions either; we worked in a very theoretical manner – our job was mainly based upon calculations done at the<br />

desk. We analyzed how far we could go in terms of the productive chain and its maximization, and we struggled for<br />

this as much as we could” 38.<br />

Faced with the fear that the launching of the CET would lead to the disappearance of the sector or<br />

the loss of the acquired preferences during the previous phase, private actors resorted to traditional<br />

lobby practices demanding protection from the government. By the mid-1994, these pressures<br />

became even stronger. However, not all business sectors were involved in these lobby activities.<br />

Only those who knew this dynamic because of previous negotiations or those representing the<br />

most powerful economic sectors, given either their veto power – as in the case of the iron and steel,<br />

and automotive sectors – or lobby power – as in the case of the textiles, sugar, and paper sectors –<br />

became involved in this process. Finally, they all managed to obtain some kind of exemptions or<br />

preferences.<br />

Negotiations for the definition of exceptions were carried out bilaterally in the province of Buenos<br />

Aires in July 1994. In exchange for the signature of the Treaty of Ouro Preto, Argentina obtained<br />

38 Interview with public official.<br />

31


what was called the Final Regime towards a Common Customs Union (RAFUA/Régimen Final<br />

hacia la Unión Aduanera), which established an extra period – a unique and maximum closing date<br />

of four years – for certain sectors and products. These were given some extra time to restructure<br />

themselves. This meant that they could keep the national tariffs within the intra-zone trade, but<br />

these would have to disappear gradually and automatically until 199939. Argentina included 221<br />

products under this regime, basically those regarding the steel and iron sectors, textiles, footwear,<br />

and paper, all of which still continue to be exempted.<br />

The textile sector constitutes a paradoxical case40. Apart from including this sector in the RAFUA<br />

and creating a special committee aimed at elaborating a proposal for an intra-zone regulatory policy,<br />

the member states agreed on exempting it from the customs union as well. Hence, the current<br />

national schemes would be applied to the textile sector, which in Argentina reached the<br />

consolidated schedules of the WTO. Thus, in practice, Argentina maintained its policy of charging<br />

specific duties to those textile products coming from third countries, and exempted Mercosur<br />

countries, even when these were included in the RAFUA. It is noteworthy that all Mercosur<br />

partners adhered to the textile and clothing agreement established within the WTO in order to<br />

allow for the application of safeguards clauses to these products imports.<br />

In sum, the four countries got to Ouro Preto with a CET and four exception lists, each of which<br />

had a particular mechanism for its future elimination. The first of these lists contained the exclusion<br />

of the CET for those products already under the RAFUA, while the second list included the<br />

national lists of specific exceptions to the customs union – such as textiles and sugar. Both the third<br />

and fourth lists were sectoral lists regarding capital, and computer and telecommunications goods,<br />

where Brazil, under the request of Argentina, committed itself to the reduction of the aliquota<br />

before 200641. 39 Some of the products included under this regime – namely, the steel sector – were also subject to quotas,<br />

while others – such as sugar and automotive – were not included in the intra-Mercosur trade liberalization<br />

scheme. This was due to the considerable divergences member countries exhibited, especially Argentina and<br />

Brazil, in terms of their national policies towards these sectors. A so called Grupo Ad Hoc was commissioned<br />

the definition of a regime that should adequate the sugar sector to the customs union – the CET and the free<br />

trade zone – while an Ad Hoc Technical Committee was requested to elaborate before June 1, 1995, a proposal<br />

for a Common Car Regime that should come into force on January 1, 2000.<br />

40 When discussing this tariff, Argentine negotiators found that the sector relied on very specific and high<br />

rights, and protection regimes quite different from those of other countries. In June 1994, after different<br />

analyses and studies had been carried out, the government established a maximum tariff of 20% for the<br />

confection, 16 to 18% for fabrics, and 12 to 14% for spun. In December 1994, and given the great pressure<br />

exercised by the textile sector, a final decision was made: the sector would be excluded from the CET and<br />

each country would keep its own tariff policy for textiles.<br />

41 While the average level of the CET was fixed at approximately 11%, tariff levels were allowed to vary<br />

between 0 and 20% across industries: the lowest tariffs were allocated to input and materials, intermediate<br />

tariffs were charged on semi-finished industrial goods, and the highest tariffs were assigned to final<br />

manufactures. Following the pattern of intra-Mercosur tariffs, exceptions were also granted. Thus, certain<br />

imports would enjoy tariff rates different from the CET. Nevertheless, it was agreed that the import taxes for<br />

these exempt products would converge linearly and automatically toward the CET by the year 2001, and by<br />

the year 2006 for those exempt products coming from Paraguay. In addition, exceptions to the CET were<br />

granted for capital goods imports – namely, machines and equipment – computers, and telecommunications.<br />

A CET was also established for textiles, but the four partners agreed that this would not be put into practice<br />

immediately. However, and in spite of these exceptions, in 1996 on average countries were quite close to the<br />

32


In terms of the factors that either facilitated or inhibited the research-policy relationship, the<br />

negotiation and implementation of the CET provides quite an opposite result when compared to<br />

the CGP. It could even be characterized as a failed experience taking into account the influence<br />

research finally had on the implementation of the CET. In this case, unlike the previous one, we<br />

cannot base our argument on the existence of a unique source of knowledge or information given<br />

that the final elaboration of the tariff matrix was the result of various types of knowledge, which<br />

included not only previous experiences but sectoral interests as well, among others.<br />

When analysing the factors that account for the multiplicity and superposition of studies and<br />

analysis developed in terms of the CET, these refer, among others, to the active role private sectors<br />

and think-tanks had given that they feared the process could be a menace to their own interests and<br />

views. However, a rather more powerful reason is the absence of a clear leadership and<br />

coordination among ministries and public agencies. This mainly refers to the relationship between<br />

the Ministries of Economy and Foreign Affairs. During the period 1991-1999 they both promoted<br />

opposing integration models: subordination to the United States by the establishment of a free<br />

trade area, or the promotion of a deep integration scheme with Brazil. In order to legitimate their<br />

own positions, each ministry and public officials in charge would appoint the elaboration of<br />

research works and surveys in an ad hoc manner.<br />

In terms of the reasons and factors that inhibited the utilization of this academic production in the<br />

decision-making process, out of the great diversity of works regarding the final pattern of the CET,<br />

the one that offered the greatest utility was the one performed by the experts and academics from<br />

the Ministry of Economy and the UBA, respectively. This team, unlike the others, relied on an<br />

interesting virtue: its capacity to respond to the demands and requirements of the national<br />

negotiators in due time and proper form.<br />

However, these proposals and reports were based on the technical conception of the experts and<br />

economists who did not have access to the medium and long term priorities established by those<br />

politically responsible for the negotiation process. When the need to achieve a political definition<br />

was finally imposed at the domestic level, mainly as a result of increasing external pressures, the<br />

main private sectors resorted to their traditional lobby strategies to demand protection measures.<br />

Within this context, the proposal written by experts and negotiators was dismissed. After the<br />

bilateral renegotiation that took place between Brazil and Argentina, the Mercosur CET was finally<br />

approved on the date that had been established by the Treaty of Asunción. Its content benefited<br />

Brazil’s productive scheme, and included only four exception lists, but once again this was intended<br />

to protect Brazil’s interests, together with those of some national private groups, which in the case<br />

of Argentina were the ones that had activated their lobby mechanisms.<br />

liberalization objective: while the external tariff in Argentina and Brazil converged from above to the CET,<br />

those of Paraguay and Uruguay did it from below, reflecting the relative lower level of protection that those<br />

countries had compared to the big patterns in Mercosur [Sanguinetti et al., 2002].<br />

33


4. IMPACT EVALUATION: AN INITIAL COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS<br />

Along this section we will present a brief comparative analysis of both episodes in order to identify<br />

their similarities and differences in terms of the agenda-setting process, the production of<br />

knowledge, and its articulation with the policy-making process and utilization.<br />

When thinking in terms of the agenda-setting process, both episodes share a similar paradigm,<br />

which is clearly based on the idea promoted by international financial institutions – especially the<br />

World Bank – that portray trade liberalization policies undertaken as a change of paradigm, as being<br />

the unique possible solution to financial and economic crisis, and to growth problems as well.<br />

Promoted by the global epistemic community, this vision would find support at the domestic level:<br />

the economic and political elites were deeply convinced of the need of reform. However, the<br />

strategies designed and implemented by the first two democratic governments – the Radical<br />

administration, and the one led by the Peronist Party – would show important differences.<br />

The administration headed by Raúl Alfonsín followed the reform path proposed by the World<br />

Bank, but only partially. This government’s innovation was evident in the promotion of a trade<br />

liberalization process based on bilateral negotiations and tariff preferences, precisely when at the<br />

global level unilateral liberalization was actively promoted in order to deepen multilateralism. Thus,<br />

the negotiations initiated with Brazil would be structured around a set of sectoral agreements,<br />

which followed a clear logic of productive complementarity.<br />

On the contrary, the following administration strictly and unquestionably followed the policy<br />

recommendations of the so-called Washington Consensus, which mainly consisted of an<br />

indiscriminate opening of the economy at all levels – unilateral, regional, and multilateral – together<br />

with the establishment of high exchange rates. At the regional level, the logic of the integration<br />

process with Brazil changed dramatically. Negotiations with Brazil, and with Paraguay and Uruguay<br />

in order to create Mercosur, were only aimed at attaining a free trade zone and a zero tariff within a<br />

period of five years. The proposal of creating a customs union would be brought about by the<br />

larger partners – Argentina and Brazil – that clearly needed to establish a lock-in mechanism for the<br />

trade liberalization already achieved, and to resist the pressures of protectionist sectors interested in<br />

reversing the process.<br />

When analyzing the academic production that influenced on the design of these strategies, both<br />

experiences exhibit great similarities. In both cases, governments were faced with new challenges,<br />

but they also lacked the basic expertise and information required to effectively implement these<br />

transformations. This would not be the case with the private sector, where a reduced group<br />

comprising the most concentrated industries that were in need of wider markets, had undergone a<br />

“regional” learning process since the negotiations within LAIA. Unlike governments, these<br />

companies had constructed continuity in time and had developed an increasing professionalization<br />

of their staff members.<br />

34


In both episodes of policy change, governments resorted to academic knowledge in order to gather<br />

further information and data regarding the policy change, and its instrumentation. As far as the<br />

CGP is concerned, the academia played a leading role in two different stages of the process. During<br />

the definition phase, when the strategy aimed at promoting sectoral integration was to be defined<br />

and designed, previous knowledge provided by decision makers, outside the political parties, both<br />

in the Ministries of Economy and Foreign Affairs was fundamental. Later on, the government<br />

appointed an academic as an ad hoc working group for the implementation of the strategy, basically<br />

for the collection of basic statistical data regarding the sectors under negotiation, and for the<br />

elaboration of the final lists the Argentine government would present to its partner.<br />

On the contrary, during the negotiation of the CET, academic production was circumscribed to the<br />

design of the instrument. Even it the Treaty of Asunción made no reference to the CET or to the<br />

sectoral policies that should be coordinated between the partners, the governments’ decision left<br />

little margin of manoeuvre. In fact, the trade liberalization process had already been established and<br />

this was already out of the agenda under discussion. Thus, the only window of opportunity for the<br />

participation of academia was given by the design and definition of the final instrument to be<br />

implemented: the CET. Nevertheless, in this case, academic production was vaster in terms of the<br />

studies, reports, and documents finally produced. Academics, who had been appointed either by the<br />

government or by private actors, devoted themselves to the elaboration of two different kinds of<br />

research.<br />

A first group included technical reports, produced by public officials and in-house technicians,<br />

and/or by specialists especially appointed by the government, who were to collect the basic<br />

statistical data needed for the construction of the tariff nomenclator and to define the tariff levels.<br />

In addition, some business sectors, such as the petrochemical, advanced with the production of<br />

their own reports. A second group of documents and studies, which would mainly focus on the<br />

argumentation and legitimization of the national positions before the public opinion, would<br />

propose different and more convenient negotiating scenarios for Argentina. These documents and<br />

studies were required by the government, and carried out by private think-tanks through<br />

international funding.<br />

Differences emerge when analyzing the articulation between researchers and policymakers. The<br />

CGP was the result of the joint work of researchers and policymakers, who shared and intertwined<br />

different types of knowledge, and made political decisions. Thus, the final list including the capital<br />

industries and sectors to be liberalized could be easily implemented regarding both the technical<br />

aspects but also the political support at stake. In addition, this group managed to present its final<br />

report before the deadline established by Argentina and Brazil. In the case of the CET, research<br />

results were finally communicated once the negotiations were over, and in a language that was not<br />

only inaccessible to negotiators but also of slight utility. Most of these documents and studies had<br />

been commissioned to academics who had no liaison with the national negotiators, and who<br />

therefore ignored their day-to-day requirements. Only one of the reports was the exception to the<br />

rule: the document prepared by the negotiators within the different SGT, who also relied on the<br />

technical and professional assistance provided by the UBA academics. This turned out to be an<br />

35


extremely technical research, where the negotiators would define their needs and requirements<br />

while academics would concentrate on the statistical data collection. Nevertheless, unlike the<br />

negotiation of the PICE, those in charge of the elaboration of this report did not receive the<br />

necessary social and political support in order to use the data and information that had been<br />

collected.<br />

Finally, we come to the last of the preconditions that can determine the influence of academic<br />

knowledge on the decision-making process: the political will of the decision makers and their<br />

determination to make use of it. There are very sharp contrasts in this respect between both<br />

episodes. In terms of the CGP, the final list elaborated by the appointed researcher was the unique<br />

element or input the Argentine government took to the negotiating table with Brazil. Sectoral<br />

accords would thus advance only in those industries or sectors where there was reliable information<br />

regarding the benefits that integration would bring about, while those sectors where there was no<br />

empirical evidence and consensus building among the stakeholders did not work, were removed<br />

from the final list. During the final negotiation of the CET, the policy recommendations put<br />

forward through the empirical analyses that had been previously developed were not taken to the<br />

discussions with Brazil. Certainly, this turned out to be a rather atypical negotiation, whose results<br />

were highly determined by the timing and pressure exercised by the main commercial partner –<br />

Brazil – given the lack of definition and of interagency coordination Argentina showed. Out of the<br />

three proposals that were specifically commissioned at the national level, the only one that would<br />

finally exercise some influence in the bilateral negotiations was the joint document prepared by the<br />

chambers of chemical and petrochemical industries of Argentina and Brazil, and which would be<br />

then presented to both national governments, and to the regional authorities as well. Finally,<br />

Mercosur authorities would accept its inclusion in the final agreement, with only some slight<br />

modifications.<br />

Having compared both episodes in terms of the production of academic knowledge, its articulation<br />

within the decision-making process, and its use, we will now delve into the factors that promoted<br />

the production of knowledge in both cases, its articulation and use in the case of the CGP, and the<br />

CET proposal by the chemical and petrochemical sector.<br />

In terms of the academic production, the existence of new problematic issues or questions<br />

regarding which the decision maker has no experience while the available information fails to<br />

present adequate answers to these new challenges, constitute an incentive for the participation and<br />

appointment of the academia. This was precisely the case in terms of the paradigmatic change<br />

within the development model experienced in Argentina since the mid-1980s. Later on, the CET<br />

negotiations would make this knowledge demand even more pressing in the face of the lack of<br />

interministerial coordination and the different approaches to integration promoted by the Ministries<br />

of Economy and Foreign Affairs. The main question under debate had to do with the construction<br />

of a customs union with Brazil. In turn, this knowledge demand would extend to business actors,<br />

such as the chemical and petrochemical sector, which assessed the need for elaborating its own<br />

sectoral proposal.<br />

36


When analyzing the second dimension, that of articulation, we find that this three successful cases –<br />

the CGP and the CET proposal presented by the public officials within the Ministry of Economy –<br />

and the document elaborated by the private sector – namely, the chamber of chemical and<br />

petrochemical industries – clearly demonstrate that the ex ante articulation between decision makers<br />

and academics constitutes a key factor to guarantee that the information produced will be presented<br />

in due time and form.<br />

Finally, both the experience of the CGP and the proposal of the chamber of chemical and<br />

petrochemical industries show that the use of knowledge depends on two conditions: interagency<br />

coordination and a common and unified vision, and the inclusion of non-governmental sectors,<br />

basically private actors. The policy-research articulation was possible in both cases because the<br />

proposed solutions, though for different reasons, left uncovered deep distributive struggles between<br />

the sectors involved: in the first case, because the CGP was established on the base of positive lists,<br />

and in the second experience, because losers and winners had been previously decided upon within<br />

the sector itself.<br />

The above comparative analysis on the nature of the policy-research relationship in both episodes<br />

of policy change brings to the forefront three initial conclusions. In the first place, and in temporal<br />

terms, the relative weight and incidence of the academia diminished as the novelty of the issue wore<br />

off and negotiating experience accumulated both in the public and private sectors. In effect, while<br />

academic knowledge was the only source in the elaboration of the CGP, 10 years later, other types<br />

of knowledge and information were added to the negotiations of the CET, which were provided<br />

not only by the Ministry of Economy but by think-tanks and different productive sectors as well.<br />

Secondly, in both cases, academic contributions to the decisional processes played a legitimizing<br />

role. The final aim of the research-policy relationship established was to legitimize the<br />

government’s negotiation position and discourse. Finally, and regarding the issues at stake, the<br />

incidence of academic knowledge had more possibilities of achieving success – use – in those areas<br />

where the distributional impact of the policies were almost inexistent – voice – or where those<br />

sectors whose interests would be seriously damaged by the implementation of a specific policy did<br />

not have veto power – exit42. In the opposite case, the voice of academia and the role played by<br />

studies based on empirical evidence were neutralized by sectoral lobbies, which relied either on<br />

their traditional veto power or on technical expertise to defend their sectoral interests. This contrast<br />

became evident during the negotiation of the CET. While the project of establishing a customs<br />

union remained as a utopia rather than a concrete policy, experts and academics worked in isolation.<br />

However, when the political will to promote a customs union was clearly defined, the strength and<br />

influence of private lobbies would obscure all empirical evidence.<br />

42 The concepts of “voice” and “exit” are being used in terms of Hirschman [1974, 1970].<br />

37


5. SOME FINAL REMARKS<br />

The case selection focused on two key moments in the process of trade liberalization launched by<br />

Argentina in the mid-1980s. The first episode, which took place in 1988, was a process of gradual<br />

change, where trade liberalization would be promoted through a strategy of selective integration<br />

with Brazil. The second episode refers to the negotiation initiated in 1991, and which was intended<br />

to attain an indiscriminate and abrupt liberalization by means of the integration process within<br />

Mercosur. This would finally lead to the establishment of a customs union. Comparison between<br />

these two episodes of policy change turns out to be of interest since they both show contrasting<br />

results in terms of the academic influence on the decision-making process. While in the first case<br />

study, academy had a rather important impact on the definition of the strategy and the final<br />

mechanism that would promote sectoral integration, in the second case, academic production, even<br />

if larger in number, had no impact on the final negotiation.<br />

Five main conclusions emerge from this comparative analysis. In the first place, the window of<br />

opportunity opened for the influence of local academia was relatively small. During the<br />

liberalization process initiated in the 1980s, the influence of academia has been only relative and has<br />

remained circumscribed to the implementation of the new policy paradigm. As the trade<br />

liberalization process advanced, the episodes and window of opportunities for the participation of<br />

academia tend to reduce and diminish. In this sense, the comparative analysis shows a larger<br />

participation of the academia in terms of the definition of the strategy and the mechanisms in the<br />

first episode, than in the second one, where academic production regarding trade policy issues was<br />

largely limited to the design of the CET. Certainly, this is not an unimportant aspect since it would<br />

contribute to the definition of which sectors or companies would be the losers and winners within<br />

this new phase of the integration process.<br />

Secondly, the analysis of these two episodes provides strong evidence regarding the different roles<br />

academia and empirical research can play in terms of the trade policy decision-making process. The<br />

most well-known role refers to providing information and proposing alternative solutions to the<br />

given problems, either by means of academic or technical knowledge, or through argumentation.<br />

Academia can also contribute with its ability to favour dialogue between the different stakeholders<br />

by providing a neutral arena for the debate of conflictive interests – being the CGP a good example<br />

of this. A third contribution refers to the fact that empirical research can give voice or amplify the<br />

demands of those sectors traditionally disregarded, and bring to light the darkest and most secret<br />

aspects of trade negotiations. This role is found – though still at an embryonic stage – in the CET<br />

debate and negotiation, where academic production legitimized the participation of new public and<br />

private actors – namely, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the chamber of chemical and<br />

petrochemical industries, respectively – in a process that until then had remained circumscribed to<br />

the Ministry of Economy. Closely related to this, the two cases under examination portray the<br />

different ways in which research can turn out be of use to policy-makers, and influence thus their<br />

decisions.<br />

38


During the negotiation of the PICE, research did not only provide support for the initial regional<br />

integration initiative with Brazil in a context characterized by high uncertainty and by years of<br />

mutual mistrust – research as ideas – but it also offered concrete answers to those in charge of<br />

elaborating the final lists of products that would be bilaterally exchanged – research as data. This<br />

second use of research would also be present in the case of the CET when the trade liberalization<br />

model was no longer under discussion, and experts were mainly asked to define the choice of the<br />

instrument. Finally, the active role played by the chamber of chemical and petrochemical industries<br />

illustrates two uses of research: research as advocacy and research as data. It is interesting to note that this<br />

business sector did not only rely on research to take an advocacy position once the final decision<br />

had been made. In fact, and bearing on their previous experience, the chambers of chemical and<br />

petrochemical industries in Argentina and Brazil elaborated a joint document that would provide<br />

governments with a useful instrument when negotiating the final sector lists. Moreover, and despite<br />

some slight changes that have been later introduced, the document prepared by both chambers is<br />

still in force.<br />

In the third place, this paper contributes to a better understanding of influence as a complex<br />

process where the influence of knowledge on decisions can assume variegated forms and whose<br />

scope can also show differences. Moreover, it is clear now that the mere existence of knowledge<br />

regarding a certain issue does not constitute a necessary condition for its efficacy. In fact, the<br />

articulation between the different stakeholders and the political will to make use of it by the<br />

decision makers constitutes a key element. In this sense, expectations of academic incidence on<br />

trade policy should be cautious. Unlike other issues, trade policy is still strongly determined by two<br />

types of actors: external actors and private domestic actors.<br />

A fourth contribution refers to the differing impact that the time and urgency factor may exert on<br />

the research-policy relationship. This worked negatively and turned out to be an inhibiting factor in<br />

the negotiation of the Mercosur CET. Even if in the case of the PICE, the World Bank clearly put<br />

pressure on the government to promote the sectoral agreement, demands were not as pressing as<br />

those exerted in relation to the adoption of the structural reform program, which was explicitly<br />

involved with trade liberalization.<br />

Finally, there has been a dynamic learning process, though different according to the actors<br />

involved. When analyzing the definition of the Mercosur integration process and the establishment<br />

of the CET, it is clear that even if there was no previous debate or analysis regarding the decision of<br />

emulating the European integration experience, after having negotiated the PICE public officials<br />

had already undergone a learning process: they knew by then which instruments would be best<br />

suited for undertaking a successful regional liberalization initiative. In terms of the non-state actors<br />

involved, the chamber of chemical and petrochemical industries offers an interesting example: their<br />

learning process dates back to the 1970s, when they were deeply involved in the regional<br />

negotiations within LAIA. Therefore, as soon as governments launched their integration project in<br />

the 1980s, this sector would get together and elaborate its own proposal, which would be accepted<br />

both at the national and regional levels.<br />

39


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41


LIST OF INTERVIEWEES<br />

1. Berlinski, Julio. Professor, Universidad Di Tella; consultant at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs<br />

(1991-1994)<br />

2. Bruno, Carlos. Under-Secretary of International Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (1988-<br />

1989)<br />

3. Chudnovsky, Daniel. Professor, Universidad de San Andrés; consultant at the Ministry of<br />

Economy and Industry (1985-1988)<br />

4. Cristini, Marcela. Senior Economist, FIEL (business think-tank)<br />

5. de Luca, Celia. Advisor, Undersecretary of Political Economy, Ministry of Economy<br />

6. Etchegaray, Ricardo. Director of Industry, Ministry of Economy (1993-1999)<br />

7. Feldman, Guillermo. Undersecretary of Trade Policy and Management, Ministry of Economy<br />

(2002-Present)<br />

8. Fumagalli, Jose María. Director, Chamber of Chemical and Petrochemical Industries<br />

9. Guadagni, Alieto. Under-Secretary of International Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs<br />

(1991-1996); Secretary of Industry, Ministry of Economy (1996-98)<br />

10. Herrera Vegas, Jorge Hugo. Ambassador, Under-Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs<br />

11. Kosacoff, Bernardo. Chief of ECLAC-United Nations Office in Buenos Aires<br />

12. Lucángeli, Jorge. Researcher, Centro de Estudios Internacionales (CEI), Ministry of Foreign<br />

Affairs (1991-1998)<br />

13. Palacios, Graciela. Negotiator GMC, Comisión Nacional de Comercio Exterior (CNCE)<br />

14. Porta, Fernando. Professor, Universidad de Quilmes; consultant at ECLAC<br />

15. Rozemberg, Ricardo. Researcher, CEI (1991-1996); Director, Centro de Estudios para la<br />

Producción, Ministry of Economy (1996-Present)<br />

16. Soltz, Hernán. Assistant Researcher, Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO-<br />

Argentina)<br />

17. Vaillant, Marcel. Academic, Universidad de la República Oriental del Uruguay; Mercosur´s<br />

technical advisor (2004-Present)<br />

18. Sánchez, Carlos (h.). Director, Fundación Mediterránea<br />

42

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