12the open book scenariosAden Blanch11 yearsThe process of scenario buildingAfter an initial workshop in April 2006 to introduce thescenario builders to each other and the scenario buildingprocess, the scenarios were built during three workshops.In workshop 1, in August 2006, the scenario buildersexplored and refined the framing questions and createda database of issues and influences. They identifiedhundreds of dimensions of the environment, fromnature, society, politics, the economy, culture andtechnology that had the potential to influence thecontext in which the teaching profession operates.Global warming and climate change were seen ascritical influences on both the curriculum and thephysical environment of schools. Changes infamily structure and social relationships as well astrends in immigration had the capacity to change –usually stretch – the expectations of schools. Thepossibility of increased political intervention inschooling was seen as a concern. National economicwell-being was seen as a significant <strong>for</strong>ce shapingAustralia, with the possibility of growing disparities inwealth having a divisive effect. Multiculturalism wouldcontinue to be an important influence and technologyhad the potential to revolutionise, even further,education delivery and ways of learning.The central task of workshop 2, in October 2006, was togenerate a small number of coherent but differentiated‘indicative scenarios’, representing four different ‘worlds’in which the teaching profession may have to operate by2030. This involved the reduction of the manyinfluences identified in the first workshop down to amore manageable number of influences with thestrongest impact and led to the generation of the fourscenario worlds described in Section 3. These rangedfrom the bleak future defined by fear, economicdifficulty, environmental degradation and socialmarginalisation of The Grapes of Wrath, where schoolswould provide protection from society and teachers’main role would be to provide pastoral care, to the moreoptimistic future of A Farewell to Arms, characterisedby a strong sense of community, economic stability andvaluing of children, where schools are well respectedcommunity institutions and teachers held in highesteem with significant professional autonomy.Workshop 3, in March 2007, moved the processfrom alternative future scenarios to strategies <strong>for</strong> theteaching profession.For those who want to explore further the scenariobuilding process, including its intellectualunderpinnings, and the material created andgathered <strong>for</strong> the Open Book Scenarios project,including research, interviews, presentations and theoutcomes of <strong>for</strong>ums and discussions, this is accessibleonline at www.teachingaustralia.edu.au
For Australia to be a leader ineducational thinking, practice andresourcing, we need people whohave the capacity to think globally.It is all too easy to remain focusedon our own issues, ignoring the‘outside’ factors. But, we do this atour peril and I believe the scenariobuilding project has demonstratedto all of us involved just howimportant it is to see theglobal factors and howthese connect.Scenario Builder
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