Teaching for uncertain futures - Neville Freeman Agency

Teachingfor uncertainfuturesThe Open Book ScenariosA project exploringpossible futures for teachingAUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE FOR TEACHING AND SCHOOL LEADERSHIP Limited

iiACKNOWLEDGEMENT AND DISCLAIMERPublished February 2008Teaching Australia – Australian Institute for Teaching and SchoolLeadership Limited, Canberra, ACT 2000ISBN: 978-0-9803323-2-2AuthorsThe Neville Freeman Agency (principal authors Oliver Freemanand Richard Watson, major contributors Richard Bawden,Matthew Champion, Howard Dare, Bernard Lloyd andMelanie Williams) in partnership with Teaching Australia.Email info@nevillefreeman.comDesignKillanoodle, Sydneykillanoodle.comAcknowledgement and disclaimerThis project was funded by Teaching Australia – Australian Institutefor Teaching and School Leadership Limited, established as thenational body for the teaching profession, with funding providedby the Australian Government under the Australian GovernmentQuality Teacher Program. The views expressed herein are notnecessarily those of Teaching Australia.© Teaching Australia – Australian Institute for Teaching and SchoolLeadership Limited, 2007This work is copyright. It may be reproduced in whole or in partfor study or training purposes subject to the inclusion of anacknowledgement of the source and no commercial use or sale.Reproduction for purposes other than those indicated aboverequires written permission from Teaching Australia. Requests andinquiries can be addressed to Teaching Australia, 5 Liversidge Street,Acton, ACT 0200 or email info@teachingaustralia.edu.au

iiiCONTENTSTeaching foruncertain futuresThe Open Book ScenariosCONTENTSAcknowledgementsPrefaceivviiIntroduction 1Part 1Introducing scenario building 5Part 2The Open Book Scenarios 9Part 3Four scenario worlds 15Part 4Implications of the scenarios forthe teaching profession 33Part 5Learning from the future 41AppendixExpanded descriptions of thefour scenario worlds 54

ivACKNOWLEDGMENTSScottAndersonAcknowledgementsTeaching Australia in partnership with the NevilleFreeman Agency wish to thank the many people whocontributed to the Open Book Scenarios – teaching foruncertain futures project.DeborahArthursDavidCreesThe 55 practising teachers and principals from acrossAustralia who brought passion and commitment to thisproject as they came together to construct the alternativescenarios deserve special mention.RaeleneBeecherGuyDavisThe work of these scenario builders was supported byresearch, ideas and thoughtful contributions from schoolcommunities across the nation, from educationists,leading thinkers and writers, school students, parentsand many others in the broader community. Theirparticipation, creative insights and support are recognisedas immensely beneficial to the process of exploring thefuture challenges of teaching and leadership and lookingat how the teaching profession might best respond inthe present.MichaelBurdenBronwynChatfieldJimDaviesLislFenwickKateCliffAndrewFitzSimonsSteveGibsonLindsayCooperSueFoxPeterGlendenningRobCostelloJohnFryKarenaGregory

JaimeLawrenceOliviaO’NeillAnneSarrosMariaSparksSallyHodgsonSamJesneyMaryLaneTobiasO’ConnorLizSmithWayneNeumannKittyGuerinPaulLukeJessicaSartoriBenStockwinBillMannLinaScalfinoJeffStoneRosemaryMapletoftJeaneSchocroftCatherineWalshRosemaryWinterbothamSusanWyattRichardWatersJohnSeeMandyReynolds-SmithLeanneMolonySueMonaghanLeifSheaAmandaWennKarenYagerAngeKenosPenelopeSmithvACKNOWLEDGEMENTSChristaPitmanJulieQuanSing-RowlandsTroyRoberts

6PREFACE

viiPREFACEPrefaceHedley BeareEmeritus Professor and Honorary FellowFaculty of Education, University of MelbourneA brief history of the future is the beguiling title of Oona Strathern’s 2007 bookwhich gives an account of how our attitudes towards the future have changed,particularly over the past hundred years. No matter in what field we work now,we must be seriously concerned about the trendlines affecting all aspects ofhuman existence. Observations of the changes that our world is experiencingare provided by the following authors.The Meadows Team, authors of theClub of Rome’s The Limits to Growth(1972), found that by 1992 humanityhad already overshot some of theirpredicted sustainability limits, andconclude that because the trends areinterlocking ‘the collapse will arrive verysuddenly, much to everyone’s surprise’.James Lovelock, author of TheRevenge of Gaia (2007), observes thatthe earth community is suffering ‘thefever brought on by a plague of people’and that ‘the great party of the twentiethcentury, with its extravagantoverspending and its war games, is over’.George Monbiot, author of Heat:How to stop the planet burning (2006),claims we may already have started thechain-reaction which could incineratemany life-forms, including the human,and it will need quick and drastic actionto head off the possibility.James Martin in The Meaning of the21st Century (2006) itemises fifteentrends which have to be addressedurgently – like a devastated planet,closing the extreme poverty gaps,controlling the explosion in the world’spopulation, and managingcomputerised intelligence.Sir Martin Rees, author of Our FinalCentury (2003), speculates whether thehuman species will survive beyond theend of this century, largely because ofhuman factors – like technologiesgetting out of hand; ‘multiplier’infections being set off unwittinglyespecially in the ‘congestedmegacities of the developing world’;disasters triggered by humanincompetence; the ‘disruptivecapabilities’ possible from individualsskilled in genetics, bacteriology,and computers; and inventionslike the quantum computer.Clearly, business as usual is not a survival option. More particularly, schoolscannot afford to be complacent as they are responsible for educating the nextgeneration of the world’s citizens. For them to live happily in the 21st century,they must face issues like the fact that by 2050 developing countries couldcontain 86.5 per cent of the globe’s galloping population explosion; that bythen there could be more people living in Asia and Africa than the combinedpopulation of the whole world this year. These students will be globally orientedin a way we never conceived of in the 20th century, and what they must learn atschool has changed dramatically.Ray Kurzweil, author of The Ageof Spiritual Machines, WhenComputers Exceed Human Intelligence(1999) predicts that by 2020 we willhave computers that exceed theprocessing power of the human brain,and that technobiology may transcendhuman capacities beyond what wecan imagine.

viiiPREFACETheir lifestyle patterns will need to be radically overhauledtoo. We would need an area and resources equivalentto almost three planets to support the world populationif everyone lived as middle-class Europeans and NorthAmericans do now.This generation also knows that the global resourceinequalities are so gross that, if unaddressed, they will fuelthe blind striking-out against perceived privilege. There arenow around 22 megacities of more than ten million peoplewhose huge ‘megaslums’ contain nearly a billion people.And with trends like global warming, any natural disasteranywhere (bushfires, earthquake, floods, droughts,tsunamis) will produce a human disaster simply becausethere are more people living where these occur.This is what is in store for the children now in school. Theycan react negatively or creatively to these things. Teachersknow that these children may be the last generation in aposition to save the planet and themselves; that theircapacity to act cooperatively and internationally areessential qualities to be fostered; and that at the very least,their learning programs must show them what the 21stcentury world could be like and how to live successfully,robustly, and happily in it.The question is whether this generation, Generation Y,the students now in school, and their teachers will takeappropriate actions. At the end of Lovelock’s 2007 book, healmost pleads for the teaching profession to put its skills towork. ‘What we need,’ he says, is a ‘manual for living welland for survival’, the quality of its writing such that ‘it wouldserve for pleasure, for devotional reading, as a source offacts, and even as a primary school text.’ He gives a neatsummary of what its contents should be. We need someagency for synthesis and wisdom that does for the presentcentury what the monasteries did for the Middle Ages,Lovelock says. Will 21st century schools do it? It’s a big ask.It’s also an exhilarating one! And we have to admit thatmany of the signs are good.So at this point in history, the role of teachers is morepivotal than it has ever been. One of the most constructivethings we can do, therefore, is to target constructively thequality of teachers. That is why explorations like thosecontained in this book are of such moment, for teachershave the power to foster that creative and invigoratingquality the world needs, namely, hope.

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Working with some of thebrightest, most dedicatedand easily the most amazing‘collection’ of teachers andprincipals that I have evermet has been a truly uniqueand inspiring moment inmy life. I sincerely believethat we have considered theeducational world of 2030 ina way that we would neverhave considered before andhave thus opened a doorto understanding andpreparation for that worldthat will significantly aid oursuccessors to guide theirstudents to achieve theirvery best.Scenario Builder

1INTRODUCTIONIntroductionAs a new body established in 2005 toadvance the standing of the teaching profession inAustralia and support the quality of teaching andschool leadership, Teaching Australia initiated ascenario building project as an early activity, toexplore the future of teaching and school leadership.The purpose was to draw on the knowledge andexpertise of practising teachers and principals toreflect on the dimensions of good teaching, to explorepossible changes in the teaching environment andto draw out the consequences of these changes forprofessional practice in schools.This has been both an exciting and challengingexercise. Since April 2006, 55 committed andinsightful teachers and principals from acrossAustralia have come together to construct alternativescenarios and consider the implications of these fortheir everyday work, both in the present and in theshort-term future. Supported by the Neville FreemanAgency and with contributions from their own schoolcommunities, interested educationists, leadingthinkers and writers, school students, parents andmany others in the broader community, the scenariobuilders brought their creativity and professionalknowledge to illuminate issues that are vital andrelevant to teaching in Australia, sharing their viewson how to make education more relevant to an everchangingfuture and still be engaging and effectivefor students.Teaching Australia hopes that the Open BookScenarios: teaching for uncertain futures projectdescribed in this book will provide a platform forschool communities, teachers and principals toengage with scenario building at a local level – to stepback from the everyday, explore the forces for changein their own school, challenge their own world view,gain a greater understanding of the teachingenvironment and find ways to influence and shape theprofessional agenda. Scenario building can be used toinitiate conversations around the purposes ofeducation, about what teachers need to do to helpstudents prepare for their future that takes intoaccount the impact of social change on young peopleand schools.Taking the longer-term view is not an indulgencebut a necessity. It provides the context andunderstanding for developing practical and moreknowledgeable strategies for the present. It is a way ofdealing with the complexity of teaching, expandingthe lens through which teaching is viewed. It is anopportunity to shift discussion about schooling froma narrow focus on skills and specific areas ofknowledge to the broad range of needs for the future,to shift the focus of debate from problems toopportunities and to examine current practice interms of future needs.

3Differentiating the scenario worldsUndertheVolcanoAFarewellto ArmsTheGrapesof WrathT heMagicMountainThe great divide Community Fear CorporatisationPolarisedIntolerantResentfulPessimisticPersonalised valuesHarmoniousAppreciativeOptimisticTolerantFeminised valuesDisintegratingPessimisticIntolerantSustainability of kinshipgroupsSurvival valuesCorporate loyaltyCompetitiveMarginalised underclassAmbivalentMale-dominant valuesFor haves and have notsIndividualismPersonal growthVocationalCentre of communityIndividualised self-pacedlearning plansWell balancedLocal fortressProtectionSocial havensCorporate ethosPrivatisedProfit-drivenVocationalFacilitate diversityAgents of integrationSafety net for have notsDiminished statusMulti-taskingSocialCollaborativeTrusted and well respectedSocial, pastoral andhealth careCross-culturalModel inclusivenessHigh status due to pastoralcare roleAchieving measurablestudent outcomesValue-addingHighly respectedand well rewardedCult of youthSmall nuclearFamily/work balanceChildren highly valuedResurgence ofextended familyChildren provide cheaplabourProtective urban/rural tribesChildren are assetsGlobal orientationPervasiveSocial differentiatorFocus on innovationand ideasSurveillanceSocial integratorIrrelevantFocused on science forsurvivalIntegralCustomised biotechnologyCreates pressureHighDrives innovationUnderlines socialcohesivenessIndigenous focusFlood of illegal immigrantsRacial tensionAsia focusUnequal access to wealthGreat divideUser pays approachStable and strongCompanies collaborateTraditionally resource basedGlobal recessionSurvival economyCrumbling infrastructureScarcity of jobs and resourcesGlobal wealthCompetitiveInnovativeHighly centralised Global alliance Fragmented Global corporate alliancesNo local voice for peopleClimate change managed bytechnology and regulationSocial focus on betterfutures using clean energyHarsh, unpredictable climateCorporate competition forcontrol of resources

4INTRODUCING SCENARIO BUILDINGThe convergence of a whole range oftechnologies such as informatics,biotechnology, nano-technology, andneuro-technology and cognitive scienceare fundamentally changing the paradigmin which society is operating. It is up tous to determine, by what we do now, thefuture impact of these technologies. Thefirst thing we must do is educate peopleto be able to cope with rapid change.Thought LeaderDr Terry TurneyDirector, CSIRO Nanotechnology Centre

5INTRODUCING SCENARIO BUILDINGPart 1IntroducingscenariobuildingDaily living totally absorbs most people.Seldom are they able to lift their gaze from theirimmediate future to think about a longer-termfuture, how it may differ from today, and to considerwhat may influence it.In a static or slow-moving world, this lack ofengagement with future possibilities may not matter –individuals and organisations will slowly change astheir circumstances evolve. But today’s world is notstatic or slow moving. Change is rapid, widespread,far-reaching and often surprising.Consider the way the issue of climate change hasshifted from being a fringe issue to a mainstreamtopic, and how the public has embraced the needfor debate about the environment and how climaticchanges might affect life and living in Australia.What will happen next? Current hypotheses includepandemics, obesity epidemics, a technologicalrevolution, terrorism, shifting global power, thedecline of oil as a primary energy source, changes infamily dynamics and economic upturn or downturn.Each of these possibilities has the potential to affecteducation in Australia, its nature and its content.Possible FuturesThere has already been a shift in the way people,particularly the young, access and consumeinformation. Ten years ago Google was unknown.A few years ago YouTube and MySpace did notexist. ‘Blog’ is still a new word for many. Theseinnovations, and others like them, are fundamentally

6INTRODUCING SCENARIO BUILDINGFutureimperfectEngaging with the future is engagingwith a slippery customer – futureimperfect if you will.Many things contribute to thisimperfection.The future is unknowable. It is notuntil the future becomes the presentthat I can say, ‘Ah of course, now Iknow.’ The trouble is it’s no longerthe future and the ‘next’ futureremains as elusive as ever.The future is unpredictable. It cannotbe predicted in a foolproof way.The future is also uncertain, whichmeans there is the potential for anyone of many different futures tocome into being.The crucial skill is not to attempt topick which of these different futureswill actually be the one that happens– to guess the ‘right future’. Ratherthe aim should be to ‘imagineinto being’ and then explore acomprehensive set of plausiblefutures.The ‘content’of the futureForesight looks at the content of thefuture in three ways.Some aspects are wild cards: thingswhich are genuinely surprising, suchas earthquakes and tsunamis,whatever hindsight might later say.Others are definite possibilities – theimpact of technology on teachingfor example – but are criticaluncertainties: important influenceswhich are foreseeable but whoseoutcomes cannot be predicted.And yet others seem bound to happen– predetermined elements likethe demographics of Australia overthe next five years – however nervouslysuch views are shared with others.ThetroublesSo far so good. But the complicationsof engaging with the future andlearning from it are furtherconfounded by a long list of difficultissues and questions. Theuncertainty of the future is one. Addto this the contestability of questionsasked about the future and theresponses to them; the complexityof the hundreds of influences thatare shaping future environments; thedynamics of power and politics; andthe impact of diverse world views.Thenew wayThe troubles are not to be put to oneside. What is needed is a processthat will accommodate the difficultiesand transcend them. That process isbroadly described as scenario building.The ‘wild cards’, ‘criticaluncertainties’ and ‘pre-determinedelements’ encountered above areall part of the scenario builder’sarmoury. It is the criticaluncertainties that combine to createalternative future scenarios.When we embark on a scenariobuilding exercise, the ways in whicheach of us sees the world becomesexplicit rather than assumed.The value of scenario building isbased on the creation of a sharedexperience which openly questions theassumptions each of us brings to thetable and drives the creation of newworld views and collaborative actionplans for the future.Engaging with the future does nottake place in the future; it takes placein the present. Having a future focuschanges the way we see the present,so much so that we ‘reperceive’ thatpresent and its strategic requirements.Learning from the future is excitingand challenging because it changes,forever, the way we engage withthe present.Oliver Freeman

9the open book scenariosPart 2TheOpenBookScenariosTeaching is the largest profession inAustralia. There are about 250,000 teachers in around10,000 schools in the various states and territories,teaching different age levels in different educationsystems. With such vast numbers and such a spread,there is no ready way to bring the profession as a wholetogether to discuss its professional roles andresponsibilities into the future.The Open Book Scenarios project provided anopportunity for a few teachers and principals fromacross Australia to come together in this way. Theobjective was to ‘engage the teaching profession inexploration of possible futures and their implicationsfor quality teaching and school leadership’.At the heart of the Open Book Scenarios project was ateam of 55 practising teachers and principals, selectedfor their interest in and passion about teaching andabout the future. They came from government andnon-government schools, from all states andterritories and from pre-school through to seniorsecondary schooling.To expand engagement with the project, many of thescenario builders were able to establish a local hub,a group of 10 to 15 teachers, who worked with themthrough the process as a sounding board for ideas andissues. This ‘controlled amplification’ process, whichoperated both actually and virtually, added around1750 teachers and principals to the project.The scenario builders were involved in a processextending over more than a year that involved

10the open book scenariosdata-gathering, examining the influences and issuesthat might be important in the future both for teachingand for the wider world, crafting alternative futureworlds and exploring the implications of these worldsfor their professional practice, both in the futureand today.Early in the process, framing questions designed toshape the exploration of the future were agreed.These were:What will the Australianteaching profession haveto do to be successful inthe environments inwhich it will have tooperate in 2030?&What are theimplications ofthese challengesfor schoolleadership?The perspective was deliberately that of the teachingprofession itself, with a focus on professional practicerather than schooling or education more broadly.To assist the scenario builders to explore thesequestions, inputs and contributions were gatheredfrom a range of sources – from future thinkers andopinion leaders in fields as various as philosophy andthe environment and science; from research,interviews and focus group workshops in differentlocations; from consultation with stakeholders inteaching, school leadership, government, teachereducation, education policy and administration,business, the community, students and families;and from students themselves.Students’ views were sought through face to facediscussions, and also through ‘A day in my life in2030’, an activity designed to capture the ideas ofyoung people about what life might be like in the year2030. Students of all ages submitted online creativepieces imagining themselves, at their current age, in aschooling environment in 2030, and describing a dayin their school life. For students, climate change andtechnology were centre stage, shaping ways of living,getting around and interacting with others. Robotstake on domestic chores, including the roles of parents,teleportation replaces commuting and microchipsmean the end of homework and the need to study.Technology mostly substitutes for teachers, althoughin emergencies – when the computerised teachers crash– students face the challenge of “listening to a humanvoice talk and teach … She projected the notes on thewall and made us write them out by hand! My handdoes not know how to use a pen, let alone write a ton ofnotes. This is child labour!”

11HEADING HEREI felt totally challenged at all times.We were required to absorb a greatdeal of information, assimilate thatwith our existing values andbeliefs and then use this data topredict influences and changes ina variety of contexts. Then justwhen you thought you had itthe context was changed orextended requiring newchallenges to thinking.It was great!!Scenario BuilderThinking outside ofmy comfort zone.Realising that theglobal world has a largeimpact on what I do in myeveryday life, as well as whathappens daily has a largeimpact on the future.Scenario Builder

12the open book scenariosAden Blanch11 yearsThe process of scenario buildingAfter an initial workshop in April 2006 to introduce thescenario builders to each other and the scenario buildingprocess, the scenarios were built during three workshops.In workshop 1, in August 2006, the scenario buildersexplored and refined the framing questions and createda database of issues and influences. They identifiedhundreds of dimensions of the environment, fromnature, society, politics, the economy, culture andtechnology that had the potential to influence thecontext in which the teaching profession operates.Global warming and climate change were seen ascritical influences on both the curriculum and thephysical environment of schools. Changes infamily structure and social relationships as well astrends in immigration had the capacity to change –usually stretch – the expectations of schools. Thepossibility of increased political intervention inschooling was seen as a concern. National economicwell-being was seen as a significant force shapingAustralia, with the possibility of growing disparities inwealth having a divisive effect. Multiculturalism wouldcontinue to be an important influence and technologyhad the potential to revolutionise, even further,education delivery and ways of learning.The central task of workshop 2, in October 2006, was togenerate a small number of coherent but differentiated‘indicative scenarios’, representing four different ‘worlds’in which the teaching profession may have to operate by2030. This involved the reduction of the manyinfluences identified in the first workshop down to amore manageable number of influences with thestrongest impact and led to the generation of the fourscenario worlds described in Section 3. These rangedfrom the bleak future defined by fear, economicdifficulty, environmental degradation and socialmarginalisation of The Grapes of Wrath, where schoolswould provide protection from society and teachers’main role would be to provide pastoral care, to the moreoptimistic future of A Farewell to Arms, characterisedby a strong sense of community, economic stability andvaluing of children, where schools are well respectedcommunity institutions and teachers held in highesteem with significant professional autonomy.Workshop 3, in March 2007, moved the processfrom alternative future scenarios to strategies for theteaching profession.For those who want to explore further the scenariobuilding process, including its intellectualunderpinnings, and the material created andgathered for the Open Book Scenarios project,including research, interviews, presentations and theoutcomes of forums and discussions, this is accessibleonline at www.teachingaustralia.edu.au

For Australia to be a leader ineducational thinking, practice andresourcing, we need people whohave the capacity to think globally.It is all too easy to remain focusedon our own issues, ignoring the‘outside’ factors. But, we do this atour peril and I believe the scenariobuilding project has demonstratedto all of us involved just howimportant it is to see theglobal factors and howthese connect.Scenario Builder

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15four scenario worldsPart 3FourscenarioworldsA Day in the Life of Catherine 2030There is a flag on my house. My houseis very colourful and very, very tall. Ithas buttons on it. I use a ladder to reachthe buttons. One opens up the door, onemakes the flag move and one makesthe shelter go up and down. There is amachine next door that when you open thedoor it washes you up.When you get in my car it takes you fora drive. You tell it where to go. It goes byitself. It stops by itself. It has eyes at thefront so it can see.Catherine Lerch4 yearsThe idea behind scenario building is toimagine alternative future worlds which are plausible,internally logical and robust and which aredistinctively different from each other.The scenario builders in the Open Book Scenariosproject had the opportunity to explore the manyelements of the environment – globally, nationallyand locally – that impinge on the work of the teachingprofession. They were stimulated, stretched andchallenged by their experience of learning from thefuture. Through this process they developed fourscenario worlds for 2030:Scenario 1Under the VolcanoScenario 2A Farewell to ArmsScenario 3The Grapes of WrathScenario 4The Magic MountainThese scenario worlds are quite distinct and are describedbelow through the eyes of four fictional individuals.Further ‘key aspects of life’ in each of the four 2030scenario worlds have also been described and arelocated in Appendix 1. A description of the fourscenario worlds follows.

16four scenario worldsSynopsis of Scenario 1Under the VolcanoThis is a world where unequal accessto wealth is creating a society thatis splitting in two. The fortunatefew enjoy easy access to everything.Theirs is a world of excellence andprivilege, with good schools, wellfundedhospitals and householdmanagers employed to help witheverything from washing clothes tomowing the lawn.The other half couldn’t be moredifferent. Theirs is a world whereeverything seems to be in shortsupply, except queues. The underclassis increasingly unwilling to accept thestatus quo and dissent is in the air.Interestingly, however, both groupsshare a few similar beliefs, especiallyabout the primacy of the self and theimportance of education forpreparing young people for work.There is a significant skills shortage,although technology replaces peoplein many areas of industry.Technology is pervasive and drives allfacets of life.Some signals of change in thisdirection could be:Schools being privately ownedand floated on the stock marketNeighbourhood unrest and theincreased use of security forcesWidespread use of trackingdevices for goods, services andchildrenRise in use of use of drugsand medication to enhanceperformanceConsumerism and free choicedriving innovationSociety values youth, innovation andideas. Families come in many differentguises but all are heavily intoparenting. Family/work balance andhappiness are national political issues.

17four scenario worldsScenario 1Lookingback from 2030under thevolcanoMary Scott is a 40-year old single parent fromregional NSW who lives in Young. She is reflectingon how things have changed since she left schoolin 2007.In an ideal world there wouldn’t bemuch difference between schooling for the well off andthe also rans, but we don’t live in an ideal world do we?I live with my two kids Millie, 14, and Jamie, 6, nearwhat I guess you might call a classic country town.We’ve had our ups and downs here, especially thedry decade after I left school that put most of the localcherry farmers out of business. We all pulled throughbut there’s not much well-paid work left around hereanymore. The few families that could packed theirbags and headed for Sydney. It’s another world really.We’re stuck out here with next to nothing to do whilethe people with the right kind of skills (or the right kindof kids) pick where they want to live and who they wantto work for. The sort of money I hear they earn makesmy head spin although from what I hear money stilldoesn’t buy happiness.Thirty years ago I remember Australia being a fairlyegalitarian society at least in terms of a fair go andaccess to good schooling. These days there’s a greatdividing range and it’s great only for the lucky few.Access to education is now totally influenced bymoney. Education in turn influences jobs, which theninfluence how much money that you have to spendon education.In other words, the fair go has gone. Business andmedia are now tightly controlled by a handful ofnational and international companies which tend torecruit employees from a very select range of schoolsand universities. But it’s not just education and jobsthat have become polarised. Politics has become hugelyconfrontational once again with one party furiouslydefending the individual, the free market and

18four scenario worldsglobalisation while the other clings unsuccessfully toideas like social justice, community and theAustralian flag.My main worry used to be climate change. Whatsort of world, if any, would my kids inherit? However,technology (plus a bit of tough legislation andcommonsense) seems to have sorted out most ofthe man-made mess, which means that my currentconcern is education, especially the ways schools canpromote a social conscience and provide a safety netfor families.The crime rate around the region has really worsenedover the past thirty years, especially with poor kidsstealing from the rich hobby farms that are emptyfor most of the week. There’s a problem in the localschools with obesity, drugs and Internet addiction, allof which are of course treatable if you have the means.For example, there’s a vaccination now available toimmunise kids against binge drinking but it costsmore than most people around here have to spend onfood for the entire year.difficult to fit in with our tight local communityunless they shared our culture and beliefs – whichwould mean they’d never work at the school.I’ve thought about home schooling, which is verypopular, especially with the immigrants, but to behonest, I think it’s important to physically supportthe community. I also worry a bit about my kidsspending too long in front of a computer screenas it is.My kids are great, of course, and my ex shares thisbelief (although he won’t share much else). However,Millie and Jamie do seem rather disengaged. I’m notsure how resilient they really are. Their level ofselfishness and narcissism scares me. They won’tlisten either. I keep telling them how importanteducation is, especially if they want to get a jobsomewhere else, but they seem totally absorbed bytheir own virtual worlds. Mentally, I think they aresomewhere else already.I’m a really strong supporter of local schools, especiallythe way that these schools have integrated themselvesinto the local community. When we had the bigdrought, the schools played a vital role in helping localfamilies survive and we’ve never forgotten that. Welook after them and they look after us. Parents andgrandparents help out at the local schools andbusinesses in the area do their bit too.There’s talk of a developer building a boarding schoolfor privileged city kids. The parents of these kids areso busy earning megabucks and living in skyscrapersthat they prefer to farm their kids out to give them ataste of the healthy country life. They’re thinking ofbuilding the school quite close to here but I promiseyou it won’t work. First of all, no local teacher that Iknow of would work in such a place because his or herworldview is so different. Equally, any school teacherfrom the city that moved here would find it very

19HEADING HEREpolarised societytensionyouth / innovation / ideas valuedgenerational shiftindividualismdrugs enhance performancefamily / work balancepervasive technologyready toexplodeschools forhaves andhave notsthe great divide

20four scenario worldsSynopsis of Scenario 2A Farewell to ArmsIn this world Australia has becomemore open both in terms of toleranceof others and also in terms of how thefamily and the local community areinvolved in decision-making in politicsand business. The nation is buzzingwith fresh thinking and new ideas.Family, community and children areheld in high esteem. Schools are wellrespected institutions and contributeto Australia’s leadership in science andinnovation. The value of technologyis acknowledged but not overrated –physical connectedness is asimportant as virtual connectedness.The economy is strong, withservices and small businessflourishing. Immigration is drivingexperimentation in business, the artsand education and underlines thesense of harmony and socialcohesiveness.Some signals of change in thisdirection could be:Greater presence of womenin public lifeFocus on green technology inresponse to drought, floods,heat and resource shortagesAdvances in technologies withstrong social benefitsThe growth of well-being andhappiness as a political issueGreater local responsibilityfor schooling

21four scenario worldsScenario 2Lookingback from 2030a farewellto armsAnna Berich lives in Perth with her husbandand three kids.My youngest daughter, Georgia, recentlyasked me to compare growing up around Perth thirtyyears ago to now. The question was part of a schoolproject and I must admit that it rather floored mebecause you rarely get the chance to sit back and thinkabout these things.I guess the main difference was that back then societywas more focused on the individual. The word‘community’ conjured up images of pensioners sittingin broken-down church halls drinking tea and playingbingo. These days community drives almosteverything and schools are right at the heart of it.Thirty years ago, schools weren’t open at night and youcould hardly buy anything from the parent-teacherassociation shop. These days, I pick up most of my fairtrade local fruit and vegetables from the school shopwhen I drop Anna off in the mornings and we use theschool hall for everything from local Water ActionGroup meetings to technology boot camps for thegrandparents.I suppose the really big difference though is the factthat then Western Australia was like the Wild West– a bit of a boy town perched between the desert andthe sea. Men ran most of the resource companies andfarms and women were few and far between in bothbusiness and politics. These days we are more or lessin line with the global shift towards female values andthings like empathy, intuition and emotionalintelligence are in great demand locally andinternationally. There are more women in positionsof power worldwide, which has softened things a bit,especially in areas like defence and foreign affairs.Conversely, there are more men in education,especially at the junior level, which gives the boysgreat role models.

tolerantoptimisticcommunity engagementsocially cohesivefamily life valuedgreen technologyeconomy less important than family valuesgender balanceinnovationsustainabilityschoolsrespected

23four scenario worldsAnother positive spin off from the growing number ofwomen in senior management positions throughoutAustralia is how the family has become so central toeveryday life. It is probably also a delayed reactionto the stress and burnout caused by technology andglobalisation. Whatever the cause I think we are muchbetter off in 2030 compared with 2007. There is moreof a sense of perspective and balance. There is moretime to think and more opportunity to think about theimpact of our decisions on other people. There is alsomore regulation, especially surrounding the sanctityof family life, but this is generally a good thing becausethe community creates these laws in conjunction withlocal politicians, local business and the media.School wise (which I guess is the comparison mydaughter was really after) there have been somedramatic changes too. Three decades ago,technologies like the geospatial web, nanotechnology,organic computers and grid computing hardly existedand robots and other emotionally aware machines werestill uncommon. These days technology is extremelysophisticated and it’s everywhere. For example, mostchildren wear smart clothes that contain GPS locationfinders and woven solar cells to charge up devices likemobile phones (an Australian invention from WesternAustralia incidentally). All Australian schools,especially those in remote rural areas, are fully wiredup and because technology is now so cheap, everystudent has an extraordinary number of choices whenit comes to personalised learning plans, distancelearning and virtual school access day and night.Indeed, a significant number of students never set footinside formal school buildings at all, preferring insteadto interact with virtual learning engineers from theirbedrooms, coffee shops and even their cars.But it’s not just in the area of informationtechnology and communications that things havechanged. Back in 2007 schools were consumers ofenergy and resources, which meant they were at themercy of fluctuating prices, supply disruption andcompetition for key resources like water. These dayswe make our own solar and wind power and collect andrecycle our own water, sometimes even selling someof it back to the state grid at a profit – which makesbusiness studies lessons a bit more hands on I guess!Last year our public school even won a nationalcompetition for the most water collected in a singleyear, beating competition from schools acrossAustralia and the Asia-Pacific region. It’s amazing howlong it took to dawn on us that collecting water locallyis so much more efficient than dams or desalination.The bad news? Not much that I can think of really.We haven’t experienced the economic miracle thathas taken place in countries like India and China butwe’ve done pretty well as a feeder of resources andtechnology into these regions. Equally, climate changebites pretty hard every so often, especially in this statewhere it’s either too hot or too dry, but we haven’tsuffered as much as some areas like Bangladesh or theMekong Delta region in Vietnam.Immigration is still an issue, but Perth is much moremulticultural than it used to be. Some days you canwalk the entire length of Whipple Street and not heara word of English spoken. From my perspective thisinflux has made Perth feel much less remote from therest of the world. It’s a real joy to see how differingperspectives and experiences have resulted in anexplosion of new ideas like the Fremantle InternationalFilm Festival and the John Lennon InternationalPeace Studies Institute.In short, I think that kids in Australia are among themost fortunate anywhere in the world. First there’s thespace and values like mateship and fair go, which we’vealways had I guess, but there’s also the fact that ourchildren are now really valued.I don’t know what it will be like in another 30 years butif the long economic boom continues and we can keepour community spirit and gender-balanced thinkingalive, the future will be a pretty good place to live.

24four scenario worldsSynopsis of Scenario 3The Grapes of WrathThis world is not a pleasant place.Pessimism is endemic. Fear,uncertainty and anxiety are thedominant themes and many of thethings that used to be taken forgranted are now in short supply orhave disappeared altogether. Socialjustice is a rare concern, the longeconomic boom has ended andnatural resources have significantlydiminished.The environment is harsh andunforgiving and many areas of Australiahave become uninhabitable. Thosewho can move to gated communitiesin the city. The climate is increasinglysevere and unpredictable. Familiesand local communities are focusedon survival while at the national level,the economy is failing, jobs are scarce,public infrastructure is crumbling andsociety is tearing itself apart.Some signals of change in thisdirection could be:Climate change increasinglyunpredictableSharp population shifts withinand to Australia leading todecline of rural communitiesand increased racial tensionEconomic downturn fromglobal recessionIncrease in health pandemicsFood and skills become thenew currency

25four scenario worldsScenario 3Lookingback from 2030the grapesof wrathDaniel McAteer is a young parent from FerntreeGully in Victoria. A suburb on the fringe ofMelbourne, it sits adjacent to the southern sectionof Dandenong Ranges National Park. He wasbrought up just a stone’s throw from where he nowlives and scratches a living as a waste-recycler nowthat his job with the Chinese import agency, JadeAustralia, has folded.Am I optimistic about the future?Are you kidding? What is there to be optimistic aboutthese days? The whole country, the whole world infact, seems to be going to the dogs. I half expect ayoung Mel Gibson to show up any second and tell methe whole of Australia was turned into a giant set for arevived Mad Max film and that none of this isactually real.I remember so clearly what I was doing when I heardthe news that the Chinese economy had collapsed.Within days the American economy followed suit andthen everything folded like a pack of cards. It waslike some sort of giant poker game where everyonewas holding a bad hand and everyone was bluffinglike crazy.It was October 13th – Freaky Friday it became known.I recall it so vividly because the same day theflooding happened in Bangladesh, Victoria swelteredin 43-degree heat for the fifth consecutive week. Itwas so hot that the roads were starting to melt. All theschools, offices and government buildings were closedand we all locked ourselves in our homes to avoid thedeadbeats and delinquents roaming the streets likehalf-crazed zombies. Heat can do this to people, youknow. Some kids were even caught last week trying tosteal water from an 85 year-old grandmother. Theykilled her for a litre and a half of filtered rainwater.Still, to be honest, some families do actually have iteven worse than we do. Country Victoria is now adustbowl and the fires just burn until they reach the

26four scenario worldssea. Most of us around here are sticking together andwatching out for each other as best we can.This tends to put opportunistic outsiders off fromcoming into our neighbourhood, but people are stillhaving food stolen from their gardens at night andanyone that walks down the street with a sandwich oreven an apple in plain sight is asking for trouble.The schools have got it pretty bad too. My kids are atthe local high school, which used to be a pretty goodschool when I was a kid. Now it’s practically undersiege from immigrant parents trying to get their kidsenrolled and from the local kids trying to steal things.Some days it feels more like Gaza than FerntreeGully with tribes from the other schools ram raidingclassrooms to steal vital supplies and intimidate theteachers and the kids.My view is that we should just give up with thepoliticians and get on with it ourselves. You know,we’ll make our own water, grow our own food andgenerally look after ourselves and our own kind.The other choice for me, I guess, would be to takethe family way north and try and live off the landsomehow. At least they get decent rain up there.I read a magazine only last week that was talking abouthow some of the indigenous communities are runningcamps to teach us city folks how to survive in the bush.Pretty funny that – I mean we’ve been ignoring themfor years and now all of a sudden they’re ourbest mates.What is the government doing about all this? Well tobe fair (which is very difficult, believe me) I guess theyhave got quite a bit on their plate these days. You’ve gotthe wave of migrants coming down from China andIndonesia to contend with. In theory, Australia issupposed to be ringed by a giant electronic fence tokeep them all out. These people are persistent thoughand they keep getting through somehow. Anyway,fencing our coastline was a stupid idea. I know it wasoriginally meant to be an employment generator –something to take a bloke’s mind off things – but howdo they honestly expect us to keep off the beaches inthese temperatures?They say that the new desalination plants along theGreat Ocean Road are going to sort the water problemout. They also keep saying that our schools are going tobe properly resourced and made safe but they say thesethings every year. The big companies say much thesame thing and also promise the earth but let’s face thefacts, it was big business aided by politicians that gotus into this whole mess in the first place so why shouldwe trust them to sort it all out?

27HEADING HEREtroubledfear pessimisticintolerantbesiegedgated communitiesharsh climatefocus on subsistenceflood of immigrantsracial tension recessionfood as currencycrumbling societyscarcity of jobs / resourcespandemicsschools ashavens

28four scenario worldsSynopsis of Scenario 4The Magic MountainIn this world, business takes over manyof the roles and responsibilities ofgovernment and community groups.Business is active in everything fromthe provision of health and welfareservices to education and otherformerly public services. Society relieson corporate social responsibility forproviding a social safety net, reachingbeyond employees.This looks like an evolutionary changebut the result is a winner-take-allsociety where the underclass ismarginalised. Those in employmentare the privileged and are well lookedafter by their corporation. Schools arerun by corporations to operate likecorporations. People with nothing leftto lose create social disturbance.Australia is relatively strong in aneconomy dominated by the Asiansuperpowers. Technology is fullyintegrated into all aspects of life,although access is not universal.Some signals of change in thisdirection could be:Privatisation of utilitiesGovernment becomes smalleras corporations assume widerresponsibilityIncreasing corporatesponsorship of schools andschool activities with greatermarketing and competition ineducation servicesGrowth in the role of themedia as educator and sourceof informationCorporations demonstratinggreater responsibility for thewell-being of employees

29four scenario worldsScenario 4Lookingback from 2030The magicmountainJimmy Ng, from Brisbane, is seeking a promotionat his work and this is what he had to say to theHuman Resources Director who wanted to knowhow he felt about his commitment to Brisbaneand how his two children were fitting in.It’s not bad although the kids took awhile to adjust. The company found us a good schooland a nice house to rent until we work out whetheror not to sell our houses in Sydney. The real estatemarket is pretty buoyant due to the strength of theChinese and Russian markets although most of theAmericans seem to be moving back to Floridabecause it’s getting too expensive for them here.I travel quite a bit in the region so the proximity ofthe airport makes sense and we’ve also got access tothe beaches. Most of the trouble is further south sowhile we’ve got the black card shopping malls it’s stillsafe to go shopping on foot if you want to. However,most of our shopping gets delivered or picked up bySally, our house manager. She’s a real gem, especiallywhen it comes to getting hard to get stuff like lettuceand watermelons.My job is overseeing expansion across Asia so most ofthe time I’m buying hospitals in Vietnam and SouthKorea or looking at ancillary services like medicaltourism agencies. Keeps me pretty busy. Automationand outsourcing have obviously changed how thehealthcare sector operates. The commodity end ofthe market is still taken care of at the retail level withdrop-in centres in supermarkets. That’s what you’dcall the middle market I guess. The upper level isdominated by companies like Summit hotels thatmoved into the luxury healthcare sector many yearsago while the bottom end is a bit of a mess. There’sobviously a big problem with multi-tiered healthcarebut quite honestly you get what you pay for and if youcan’t afford it that’s not my problem.

30four scenario worldsThe family are obviously all platinum hospitalmembers so I don’t have to worry about the qualityof service although I hate to think how we’d cope ifI ever lost my job and we all ended up not covered byinsurance.If I have a worry, I guess it’s the fact that the schoolseems a bit relaxed. They don’t take students untilthey’re four-years-old and the day only starts at7.30am. And then – just wait for this – they wastepart of the day teaching prehistoric subjects likeancient history and music. Believe me, these subjectsare of absolutely no use these days. My kids arealmost ten and twelve. They should be learningcontract law, financial management and teambuilding skills. I emailed the teacher about this onlylast month and brought it up with the principal atour last home visit but so far they haven’t done adamn thing. Customer focused? Yeah right. Still, I’llhave the last laugh. If my kids don’t get top marksthis year I’m suing the school for breach of contract.I’ll have a word with my development directorabout withdrawing sponsorship for the new studentwellness centre too.That’s the great thing about the new system. Thirtyyears ago I would have had to endure tediousmeetings with the parent-teacher association.Even then, there was no guarantee that anythingwould get changed. These days, because all theschools are privatised and profit driven, I just phoneup the parent complaints line. And if that doesn’twork, I have legal redress based on the initiallearning contract.We’ve also got a Microsoft computer lab, a GoogleEnglish centre and one of the latest Woolworthsstudent mini-malls.In fact the only other thing that slightly keeps meawake at night is the influence of the people my kidsmeet online. In the old days parents used to knowexactly where their kids were and what they weredoing. These days we’ve got no idea where theyare online or what they’re doing. The old stuff likeSecond Life and Cyworld were acceptable but thenew stuff is really dangerous. We’ve obviously got allthe parental controls installed at home and these filterout undesirable people and ideas but sometimes oneof the kids gets hold of a debugged computer and thenthey can hang out with all sorts of punks.Talking of sleep, we’ve got all sorts of solutions thesedays. Being in the wellness business, I have access tothe very latest deep sleep pills. These offer preciselytwo hours of REM sleep any time of day or night.The kids of course do the opposite – pills to keepthem awake all hours. Actually, banging my owndrum a bit, one thing that I’m immensely proud ofis the sleep memory pills we’ve just brought out. Popa pill and, hey presto, one hour of sleep followed bya perfect memory for up to a week. They’ll be a realhit with students but they’ll also keep people like meahead of the curve. Like they say, if you snoozeyou lose.Overall I shouldn’t complain though. The Nikesports centre is the best in the state and the BillGranger canteen is so good it’s now open in theevening for parents to grab a bite if they’re runninglate from work and can’t pick their kids up until ten.

31HEADING HEREcorporations controlhealth, welfare,utilities and educationsmaller governmentstrong economyasian superpowercompetitiveglobalisationambivalentfully integrated technologycustomised biotechnologyschoolsprivatised &profit drivenmarginalised underclassvocational innovation

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33implications of the scenarios for the teaching professionPart 4Implicationsof thescenariosfor theteachingprofessionScenario stories provide new contextsin which to explore complex issues and thinkabout new strategies and new approaches.The process of creating the stories encouragespeople to challenge their own views and use theirimagination to explore what might happen andthink about how they might act. Once constructed,the usefulness of the stories lies in their valueas a tool for thinking and talking about issuesand policies in an open way, for consideringtheir implications and various possibilities.The four scenario worlds described in theprevious section represent alternativeenvironments in which teachers might haveto operate. In each world the educationenvironment is different and this naturally hasimplications for the way teachers and principalswork. The Open Book scenario builders usedtheir descriptions of the education environmentto identify implications for their work, fromthe point of view of teachers and principalsliving in each of the imagined future worlds.

34HEADING HERERequirements for the future will beadaptability and innovation. Fundamentalcharacteristics for dealing with uncertaintyand high rates of change are differentfrom those required in steady state andpredictable environments. Key is theability to ‘dance’. We need to teachpeople how to become adaptive – how tosee principles and fundamentals, notspecifics. The more we understand thebasics of human nature and such things,the better equipped we will be to deal withan environment that is quite differentfrom what it has been in the past.Thought LeaderJohn PetersonPresident, The Arlington Institute

35implications of the scenarios for the teaching professionUnder the VolcanoIn this divided society, schooling ispolarised. The ‘haves’ have high levels of access tobusiness affluence and influence while the ‘have nots’are marginalised. There is a wide variance in teachersalaries, reflecting competition among schools forgood teachers or teachers with particular skills.In many schools, teachers find their pastoral careresponsibilities take away from their ability to teacheffectively.In this world the teaching profession is highlyadaptable and resilient, and well steeped intechnological know-how. The impact of a generalsocial mood of pessimism and revolution is counteredby the quest for self-fulfilment and personal growth,while the cult of youth and rejection of tradition infavour of innovation make it mandatory for teachersto make use of technologies in extending learningopportunities.These changes in the nature of teaching have animpact on how teachers are selected and trained.Selection into teacher education courses needs totake account of the schooling divide, with programsneeding to recruit students to teach in either thetechnologically well-endowed elite schools or thepoorer schools in socially disaffected areas. A highlevel of technological literacy is a requirement for allnew teacher education entrants, and e-learning is wellharnessed in the pedagogical repertoire of universityprograms. Teacher education programs are dynamicand innovative, preparing teachers to be flexibleand innovative.Once in schools, these highly technologicallyproficient teachers are faced with varying levels oftechnological infrastructure and support. Even inpoorer schools, they are able to engage students inlearning through technology. Their training standsthem in good stead for adapting their practice tomeet the different needs of students. The diverseneeds of business and the economy generally for skillsand technological know-how means the curriculumis broad and dynamic, and there are many pathwaysto success for students. The measure of schooling isindividual success rather than the public good.Engaging with the local community is less importantin the more technologically advanced elitist schools,but is critical in poorer areas where teachers play astrong nurturing role for both students and thecommunity generally. They act as agents ofintegration, assimilating students from differentcultures and backgrounds. The school is an importantcommunity centre.Continuing professional learning for teachers inthis world is focused on upgrading technologicalknowledge on the one hand, and on dealing with socialissues and teaching basic skills on the other.In this world, leadership is a balancing act betweenresponsiveness to the demands of corporate or othersponsors and professional responsibilities. It calls for boththe capacity to cater for disaffected local communities andthe ability to engage with the pedagogical possibilities oftechnology to achieve education outcomes appropriate foran innovative society.Teachers in this world do not enjoy great recognitionfor their work. Their skills in using technologies forlearning are well matched, and generally betterrewarded, in other professions, although those whoare successful in the competitive market for teachers areheld in high esteem. The quid pro quo for this successis the high degree of scrutiny of their performance,as in the corporate world.The blurring of lines between pastoral care andprofessional practice tends to diminish the statusof teaching.

36implications of the scenarios for the teaching professionA Farewell to ArmsThe education world in this harmonioussociety is one where the whole community feels aresponsibility for learning. Education is a politicalpriority and enjoys strong community support andresourcing. Learning is individualised and selfpaced,although there is a strong emphasis on thesocial role of schools, pursuing equity andaddressing disadvantage. The effectiveness ofschooling is judged broadly, with the development ofbalanced and well-rounded individuals regarded ashighly as academic achievement.The implications of this for teacher education are forprograms to concentrate on pedagogy much morethan subject knowledge. Teachers are prepared to acteven more as facilitators of learning, usingtechnology and innovation to guide students throughcontent areas. More and more, teachers pursue higherqualifications to deal with the rapid advances inknowledge as well as the broad demands placed onthem. Pre-service teacher education courses includeas an important component ways of relating to familiesand the community in the interests of students.Teachers work in close partnership with families toensure student well-being and attend to the particularneeds of individual students. The diversity of mostschool communities means that schools have animportant role as the centre where disparate groupscome together with shared interests and values.Collegiality and collaboration are the touchstones ofeffective school leadership in this harmonious society.The importance of family life and the strongerpresence of women in leadership roles in all aspects ofsociety have affected the image of school leadership,making the role of principal and other leadershiproles in schools more attractive, especially withnew-found flexibility in arrangements and structures.Through close engagement with the community,and in a society where ideas and innovation arehighly valued, the teaching profession enjoys greattrust and respect. Becoming a teacher is seen as anoble ambition.Teachers work with a flexible curriculum whichallows for individuals to proceed at their ownpace, achieving credit when they reach identifiedmilestones. Classes are organised for ability groupsrather than by age. Individual learning plans arerequired for all students, and these are driven by newassessment methodologies. The aim is to extend highperforming students and at the same time, make surethat no students are left behind. Online material ande-learning are the order of the day.In a world driven by innovation and experimentation,teachers constantly need to update their knowledgeand skills. Periods of reflection and collaborationwith colleagues are valued as professional learningexperiences, while formal professional developmentprograms are recognised through certification in ateacher’s portfolio of achievement.

37implications of the scenarios for the teaching professionThe Grapes of WrathThis disintegrating society has a verydifferent educational world. Schools are social havensamid trouble and disturbance. They operate 24 hourswith flexible timetables and curricula. They do theirbest to contend with the vicissitudes of the harshclimate, providing coolness in the heat, warmth in thecold and dry in the wet. They are built to beenvironmentally sustainable and energy efficient.Their focus is on the survival and sustainability ofthe community and teachers are expected to modelinclusiveness, tolerance and understanding of a widevariety of cultural backgrounds.With schools increasingly becoming the providersof social, pastoral and health care, teacher educationprograms have had to adapt. They provide trainingin health, welfare, and psychology, in addition to theprofessional skills and knowledge required forteaching. This serves to increase the length oftraining and diminish its attractiveness to many.Teachers accept this community leadership role anddemonstrate skills in teamwork, both with teachercolleagues and with other professionals and membersof the community. The 24-hour day and flexibletimetables make huge requirements for teachercollaboration, communication and flexibility.Teachers show their creativity in using limitedresources and work with their students andcommunity to build a strong skill base as well as asense of optimism and hope. Technology is a given inthe delivery of programs in school – even thepoorest schools have access to sophisticatedtechnology. School success is judged in terms of socialcohesion and acquisition of basic skills.optimism, resilience and values are also much indemand. Training in cultural understanding andself-sufficiency is also valued in this harsh world.Some professional development programs of this kindare targeted at both teachers and the community,fostering better partnerships between the schooland community. As the centre of their community,schools are increasingly used for such purposes.As a result, principals have a leadership role wellbeyond the walls of the school, being called on tochampion their community and fight for neededresources. Managing the enterprise that schools havebecome, with a diverse range of functions and widerange of specialist staff roles, requires principalsto have strong leadership skills and to shareleadership with others. The focus of school leadershiphas shifted from educational leadership tomanagement of a complex social environment.The significant role of schools as respected andvalued institutions in an otherwise crumbling societymeans that teachers are held in high esteem, althoughthis has more to do with their social role than theirprofessional practice. Their status is high,particularly in their local community.Programs on pastoral care, managing violence, socialinteraction, behaviour and conflict management,drugs and health are the greatest requirement forteachers’ professional learning. These tend to bedelivered online, for use by individuals or teams ofteachers in their own time. Programs in learned

There will be an increase inserious family breakdown atone end, and those doing wellat the other. The gap betweenthose doing well and anunderclass is widening andwill become much harder toshift. Constantly looking at‘in your face’ affluence all thetime by the have-nots willimpact on depression levels.Thought LeaderMary McLeodDirector, National Family and Parenting Institute, UKThere willbe socialdisorder andturbulence as aconsequenceof socialdistress.We ought to beprepared forquite a lot of it,but it isdifficult toforesee howsevere it willbe and howlong it willgo on.Thought LeaderJames A Knustlerauthor of The Long Emergency

39implications of the scenarios for the teaching professionThe Magic MountainIn the corporate society of The MagicMountain, education is mainly privately owned,resulting in a hierarchy of wealthy and wealthierschools, depending on the success and fortune oftheir sponsoring corporation. Schooling for those notpart of the corporate world is haphazard, althoughcorporations provide some support for schools inlow socio-economic areas as a way of giving back tosociety. Governments no longer have a major rolein school resourcing. Faith-based schools areflourishing, providing free education for society’sunderclass.Corporations exercise increasing influence over thedirection of teacher training in universities,supporting technology, innovation and the exchangeof ideas. Alert as they are to the global businessenvironment, corporations are equally attuned toeducation developments internationally and areresponsive to them, although the focus is onteachers achieving measurable student outcomes.Teacher trainees are often sponsored through theirtraining by corporations and are bonded for a periodto teach in the corporation’s schools.Just as creativity, innovation and critical thinkingare valued in the corporate world, so too are they thefocus for teaching in corporate schools. In line withscientific developments, schools emphasise the earlychildhood years. Schooling is competitive froman early age, with students assessed and streamedaccording to assessments of their potential atkey stages.The responsibility of the corporation extends tosupporting teachers’ continuing professionallearning. Corporations’ global connections open upwide ranging opportunities for professional learning,much of it offshore. The main focus for professionaldevelopment is on achieving student outcomes,although keeping up with technological change andnew ideas and knowledge is also promoted.The essence of community is the corporateenvironment. Schools operate within this environment,where the school and the corporation share a mutualinterest in high academic achievement, creativity andsocial adjustment. In this way, successful schools are acontributor to successful business. They are a criticalplayer in corporate success.In corporate schools, the administrative andmanagement functions of the principal and schoolleadership team are shared with the corporation,leaving the school leadership greater scope toconcentrate on education directions, within theconfines of the corporate ethos.In this competitive and privatised world, wherecompetitive advantage lies heavily in knowledge,skills, ideas and innovation, good teachers arehighly sought after and well rewarded. Teachersare regarded as the education professionals in thesegmented world of business and teaching is a highstatus profession.The need of business for highly qualified and skilledemployees and strong competition between schoolsmeans that teachers have to focus above all onmeasurable student achievement. They are judged onhow well their students achieve their potential.Common national standards exist for assessingteacher performance and these are applied by theindividual corporations.

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41LEARNING FROM THE FUTUREPart 5Learningfrom thefutureThe future environments of the fourscenario worlds are as complex and fluid as societytoday. Each world combines desirable and undesirablecharacteristics. Desirable features may be easierto identify in A Farewell to Arms or The MagicMountain, but some virtue can be found even in thedystopian landscape of The Grapes of Wrath.Schooling looks different in each of the worlds. In bothUnder the Volcano and The Magic Mountain, it hasbecome more divided as governments withdraw fromschool resourcing and private wealth becomes a criticalelement in determining access to an adequateeducation. In The Grapes of Wrath, schooling is valuedbut schools do not have the resources to provide studentswith rich and stimulating learning programs as theextremes of climate change have sapped resources andplaced society in the middle of an environmental crisis.In contrast, the harmonious society of A Farewell toArms positions schools as valued and highly supportedinstitutions. Schooling is effective in promoting socialequity and in helping young people to overcome socialdisadvantage. Teachers have high status within society.In broad terms, schooling within a pluralist, democraticsociety is expected to provide learning that helps tostrengthen civil society and deliberative andparticipative democracy, to promote individualdevelopment and social cohesion, to develop economicprosperity and environmental sustainability and toprepare young people for active global citizenship.

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45LEARNING FROM THE FUTUREWe shouldgear educationaround tasksof preparingyoung peopleto be competentand confidentand preparedto meet therequirementsof their time.They need to beself-actualisingpeople ratherthan passiveconsumers.Thought LeaderJames A Knustlerauthor of The Long EmergencyCommunity engagementMaking connections with parents and the broadercommunity and engaging them in the work of theschool will be increasingly important in worlds thatare highly fragmented along socio-economic lines.Whatever futures eventuate, community engagementis a vital dimension of successful teaching. The notionof the school as the hub of a community is howeveraccentuated in worlds where other communityinstitutions are disintegrating, at least for some parts ofthe populace.Building the trust and partnerships essential foreffective learning requires teachers to know andunderstand their students and families.In some futures, schools will have a wider sphere ofinfluence and will need to be more active andinnovative in contributing to community building.Communication will be a major challenge. Traditionalapproaches to engaging parents are less likely to beeffective. New approaches will be needed, drawingon the potential of new communication processesincluding social networking. Communication in allfutures will need to be more responsive to particularparent and community needs, using various avenuesand styles of communication and taking account of themany competing demands for attention.While different futures have different implicationsfor the way that community-school partnerships areorganised, making connections with parents andagencies within the broader community will continueto be a priority for teachers and principals in whateverworld eventuates.

46LEARNING FROM THE FUTUREProfessional learningWhat teachers learn about teaching in theirpre-service courses and through experience needs tobe continuously advanced as their careers progress.Isolation and conservative expectations can constrainteachers in their drive to continuously improve theirmastery of effective teaching and assessmentpractices. Regardless of the external context,however, continuing professional learning iscentral to ensuring that teaching is effective.All of the scenario worlds require teachers to behighly effective in their job. In the competitiveclimates of Under the Volcano and The MagicMountain, schooling is a commodity purchasedby the wealthy. Whether teachers are in the highlyresourced schools or the residualised poorer schools,the expectation is that they do the best job possibleto enhance the future opportunities of students.The harmonious society of A Farewell to Arms andthe disintegrating society of The Grapes of Wrathmay be poles apart in terms of their social conditions,but the expectation is the same, that teacherswill be highly effective and responsive to localstudents’ needs.The quality of professional learning and theopportunities for teachers to engage in it will becritical factors in determining the effectivenessof teachers in whatever future unfolds. Makingtime available for professional learning is notan option for schools but a necessity so that in achanging world, teachers’ knowledge and skillsare continually improved and refreshed.The greater connectedness apparent in all the futureworlds – between people, events, ideas anddisciplines – means that professional learning forteachers and principals will need to incorporate abreadth of experiences and appreciation of complexityand change. School education will be more effectiveif opportunities for professional learning provide agreater understanding of the world and the role ofcreativity and innovation in addition to advancingknowledge of discipline content and pedagogicalpractices.New occupations are continually emerging as societymoves further along the path towards a service andknowledge economy. Teachers need to be abreastof these developments so that schooling givesstudents the knowledge and skills required by thenew workplace. This may require teachers to moveout of school into the workplace for some of theirprofessional learning.Sources of professional learning may vary, dependingon how the future evolves, and the focus of programsoffered to teachers and principals will also vary.Programs may become either more locally or moreglobally centred; they may focus on updatingknowledge or upskilling processes; they may bedriven by students’ educational or social needs; andthey may be openly available or be competitive anddifficult to access.New technologies will be ubiquitous and it is likelythat the ICT industry will play a more central rolein professional learning of teachers. In no futurewill teachers be able to operate in ‘catch up’ mode interms of emerging technologies and how they can beused to promote student learning.Participation in online, global teacher learningnetworks is likely to become a commonly used avenuefor identifying emerging ‘promising practices’ andsharing teaching ideas and suggestions.These possibilities point to a wider realm ofprofessional learning sources, providers andmethodologies but all attest to the need forongoing professional learning to be embeddedin school culture.

47HEADING HEREIt has led meto be muchmore creativein my thinkingabout changein education andother strategicpossibilitieswithin the schoolcommunity.Scenario Builder

48LEARNING FROM THE FUTUREProfessionalleadershipEach of the scenarios presents sharp challengesfor the leadership of schools. The leadership of theschool, through collaboration with teachers and otherstakeholders, builds the culture of the school andestablishes its vision and mission. Leadership is alsoa major factor in connecting a school’s programs withcommunity expectations and ensuring that the schoolis well regarded within its community.If all communities are to have a school that can meetthe learning needs of young people, principals andteachers in leadership roles will need to be strongadvocates for needs-based resourcing of schools andaccept a moral obligation to assist their colleagues toimprove schools in poorer communities. Collaborationand support among school leaders rather thancompetition will better serve the longer-term interestsof schools and students. Leadership networks are oneway of facilitating this collaboration and promotingthe professional conversations that will be so critical toshaping sound leadership practices. Cooperative andresourceful local partnerships will also contribute.In each of the worlds, principals will have a key rolein helping teachers interpret and understand changesand pressures and the implications of these for thewell-being and educational development of students.Providing what is essentially a lens through whichto view the world and what is happening in schools,leadership will require high-level capabilities inanalysis and synthesis.Supporting and modelling the use of technologiesfor student learning and for continuing professionallearning will be an important responsibility of schoolleaders in all likely futures. Effective principalswill be role models for innovation, creativity andendeavour, both in the school and broader community.Leadership will have an important role, for example,in modelling the values and behaviours that are criticalfor individual well-being and social cohesion. Themore disaffected and fragmented the future, the moreimportant the role of school leadership in nurturinghope and optimism and valuing learning.The growing complexity of schooling characteristicof all likely futures suggests that greater sharing ofleadership responsibilities is inevitable. The balancein the principal’s role between leadership of learning,management of the school enterprise and partneringwith the outside community will shift from world toworld, but all will continue to be integral requirementsof leadership. Survival as a principal will mean sharingthe responsibility, building up a leadership team andfully engaging their skills and talents, allocating rolesto non-teaching staff and maintaining a focus onshaping education directions for the school.Insights from leadership in other professions willcontinue to be valuable, whatever future transpires.Schools as social institutions will continue to benefitfrom leaders’ exposure to broad experiences and thebroader external environment.Professional identityThe public views teachers as playing a very importantrole in preparing young people to function effectivelyin a rapidly changing society. In none of the four2030 scenarios is there any suggestion that schoolsare replaced by online learning centres or that homeschooling will supplant the role of the teacher. The roleof the teacher in society will remain important.Recognising that importance, and sustaining teachingas a high status profession that makes an essentialcontribution to society, requires a collegial approach.Even in the worlds of Under the Volcano andThe Magic Mountain, where the teaching professionis divided into those who work in the better schoolsand those who do not, there is more that unitesteachers than divides them. In the most dislocated

49HEADING HERE

50LEARNING FROM THE FUTURE“Can a good school become a great school? We can choose.”Dapto High School in southeast NewSouth Wales has for many years beena good school, providing a confident,competent and happy environment forabout a thousand students.Dapto is on the cusp of enormouschange. Developers have their eyeon the greenfield sites surroundingthe school and 20,000 home sitesare to be released over the next 20years. Coal mines are closing, andsometimes opening again, thanksto climate change, transport linksare being rejuvenated. With an influxof population and new industry,the surrounding community will betransformed. The existing schoolbuildings and infrastructure are tired,in need of refurbishment.Inspired by his participation in theOpen Book Scenarios project, AndrewFitzSimons, principal of Dapto Highsince 2004, has engaged his schoolcommunity in imagining the futureenvironment for the school and futureneeds. What will life and learning belike for Dapto High School studentsand the local community in 2030?The world will have shifted axis, thesurrounding community will havegrown and changed, connections withthe wider world will be sharpened.Hence, wwv@dhs: taking a widerworld view at Dapto High, to preparefor and shape that future.The idea is to have a direction, not adestination. The school communityis enthusiastic about looking to thefuture to inform what they do now.They welcome the opportunity tofocus on the future, to look aheadrather than rely on the past and tosee the school having a place in theglobalised environment of the next20 years.The focus on the future has becomean enriching element in the school’slearning culture. Hardworkingteachers and students are embracingthe call to work smarter and evenharder. Learning is at the heart ofeverything, and decision-makingis informed by research, evidenceand data. Information andcommunications technologies arefundamental to teaching and learningand transforming day-to-day tasks.Teachers are energised by engagingwith the future – no longer resistingor ignoring but intimately involved,articulating their teaching andlearning challenges, talking abouttheir learning and modelling highexpectations of students. Students aremobilised by being asked to articulatetheir own learning achievements andchallenges, to think about where theyare heading, what they will be doing in20 plus years time.Students, staff and the schoolcommunity work together to modelsustainability, a critical part ofengaging with the future. A focuson climate change is central to thecurriculum. Teachers and studentshave become ‘carbon cops’,monitoring and minimising water use,cooling, heating, lighting and printing.Students are encouraged to ridebikes or scooters or even roller bladeto school. These precious forms oftransport are safely housed during theschool day in a secure purpose-built‘skate shack’. The school houses aworking farm, and the growth of cropsand animals is part of the curriculum.A stressed and damaged creekrunning through the school grounds isnow receiving increased care and is asignificant curriculum focus. Ecologylessons have never been so practicalor so much fun.To prepare for the future, the teachers,students and school communityare working together to create ademocratic, inclusive, responsive andresilient environment.The future focus encapsulated inwwv@dhs is acting as a catalyst forbroadening horizons and openingnew possibilities. Dapto HighSchool graduates will have a globalperspective and will be well preparedto be citizens of the world of 2030.How does a good school become agreat school? Having a heightenedawareness of emerging influencesand the interconnecting strandsshaping the future opens the doorto opportunities and insights.Whatever form the future takes,engaging with it is fun and builds aresilient, resourceful and enterprisingcommunity.Andrew FitzSimons, scenario builderand principal of Dapto High School

51LEARNING FROM THE FUTUREof the four societies, The Grapes of Wrath, it is theknowledge and skills of teachers that will make adifference to the lives of young people and contributeto a more desirable society. Teachers in all futures arebound by a shared professional commitment to givingstudents the best education possible for them to leadfulfilling, purposeful and productive lives.Each of the four scenario worlds points to a futurein which there will be much greater mobility andmovement in and out of professions and vocations.For teaching, this means that the profession canno longer rely on building up a professional ethos,ethics, standards and collegiality through lifelonginvolvement in education. The profession will needto be more explicit about its values and practices, as ameans of transferring knowledge and understandingmore quickly to those who come into the profession forshorter periods of time.To meet society’s expectations of the teachingprofession – whether the emphasis is on deliveringskills or innovative thinking and creativity or wellroundedand socially adjusted individuals or adaptableand compliant citizens – that strong professional ethosand commitment is needed. Society is well served by ateaching profession that sees the value of education anduses their specialist knowledge and expertise to enableindividual students to reach their potential.The specialist knowledge and expertise teachers andprincipals have, enriched by their experience andcontinuing learning, can contribute to strengtheningthe profession as a whole. Celebrating achievement andexcellence in the profession can be inspiring to othersand attract high achievers into teaching at the sametime as it supports and nurtures practising teachers.Maintaining and nurturing the status of the professionin this way is essential to its continuing developmentand renewal.The teachingprofession needsan enormousinvestment, notjust in theimage, but inmaking teachingmatter again. Myfear in the greatdivide is that theteachers becomethe janitors inthe system. Theylose their socialstatus, theirincome, and theyteach for a worldthat is no longerrelevant.Thought LeaderWendy McCarthyDirector, McCarthy Management

52LEARNING FROM THE FUTUREComing together as professionals regardless of schoolcontext, in joint professional learning or conversation,leads to shared knowledge and ideas, builds upprofessional identity and establishes a rich evidencebase to inform policies for quality schooling. The voiceof the profession has an important contribution tomake in shaping education directions and practicesto meet future needs, whatever the future holds.Systems of communication and participation acrossthe profession will be challenges as they will befor other areas of society. Traditional approachesto professional association may be less relevant inthe future. The profession will need to explore arange of alternative approaches and mechanismsencouraging communication and participation as partof maintaining a strong profession and professionalidentity.Using scenariobuilding in schoolsFuturists and scenario planners contend thatalternative futures can be imagined. Engaging withthe future creates the capacity to anticipate it, raiseawareness about it, avert it and change it.This seems a fairly compelling reason for engagingin scenario building. While the predictive accuracyof scenario worlds may be of interest, that is not theirreal value. Scenario building does not enable plannersto ‘know’ the future. It will, however, help plannersopen their minds to other possibilities, to anticipateopportunities and threats and to plan accordingly.Scenario building helps planners shape the futurerather than just respond to it.Within the school context, scenario building can beused to stimulate discussion about the uncertaintyand unpredictability of change over the long termand about the nature and direction of change in theshorter term. Scenario building will assist teachers toconsider the future of learning and reflect on importantprofessional or local school issues. Exploration ofchanges in the broad school environment can throwlight on approaches to professional questions such as:What are the important elements of training fornew teachers?What knowledge, skills and attributes are necessaryto be a highly effective teacher?How do schools best engage with parents and thelocal community?How can teachers’ skills and knowledge be keptup to date?What are the capabilities necessary for goodschool leadership?What contribution can teachers and principals maketo the development and renewal of the profession?Scenarios can help educators to consider theimplications for schools, teaching and the curriculumof globalisation and the internationalisation of theworkforce, the rapid growth of China’s and India’seconomies, the emergence of new technologies, andthe growth of knowledge about how the brainfunctions and how we learn.Future scenarios can assist teachers to set asideassumptions about what the role of a teacher is andwhat teaching and learning need to take place. Byexploring future possibilities and thinking about whatit will take to become a great school in the future,teachers can audit their planning and programs andrealign their activities to make them as consistent asthey can with their preferred futures. What teachingin the future will look like will be, to a large extent, aproduct of what teachers individually and collectivelydo in producing and implementing policies and of themoral compass that drives teachers’ work.

53LEARNING FROM THE FUTURE

54APPENDIXAPPENDIXEXPANDEDDESCRIPTIONSOF THEFOURSCENARIOWORLDSUnderthe VolcanoThis is a world in which …Society and cultureThere is a general feeling of uneaseacross most of the country. Someintellectuals see the societal divide asa tinderbox, although the centralisedmedia rarely comment upon it.Politicians don’t speak of the generalmood of pessimism either, partlybecause it is hard to measure andalso because, as members of themanagerial elite, politicians areshielded from many of the realitiesendured by ordinary people.The cult of youth is ubiquitous andnowhere is its vitality felt more thanin the world of ideas. The new is‘news’ and oriented to the pleasure ofexperiencing a world which is full ofnew opportunities – mostly man-madeand all testing our ingenuity to find anew ‘angle’. Tradition is widely rejectedin favour of innovation.Both blue and white collar crime isrampant. The courts and gaols arestretched to their limits. Detentioncentres, once used to house the illegalimmigrants that the very powerfulpolice keep excluded from the country,are now filled to overflowing with‘domestic’ prisoners awaiting trial.Family lifeHouseholds are hectic. For familiesof the managerial elite, the day startsearly and ends late. Children rarelysee both parents during the weekand many of the values that used tobe taught at home have now beendelegated to schools and otherinstitutions. Life is busy for the otherhalf too as they struggle to keep afloatand keep up with the Jones’s and theFenton-Jones’s. Traditional nuclearfamily life still exists, especially outsideof the major cities, but it is becomingincreasingly rare. Blended families,extended families and single-parentfamilies are now commonplace.SchoolsThere is a great divide. If you canby-pass poorer schools, you do. Thismeans sending children to exclusiveschools but it also means privatetutoring and cheating. Some of thepoorer schools do well academicallydespite a lack of resources but they aregenerally the exception.There are still good local schools, andthese are fiercely fought over, but theytend to struggle due to inadequatefunding and poaching from the privatesector. There is also the issue of hyperparenting.Parental aggression andlitigation has become a major problemin both sectors but especially in thehyper-competitive private sector andfeeder schools.Overall the style of education remainsfairly vocational, not least due to thepressure exerted by parents and eventhe students themselves.The environmentMuch of the early panic over climatechange has subsided, partly becausesome of the more radical forecastshave failed to materialise and partlybecause we have learnt to deal withenvironmental change through amixture of new technology and strictregulation. Nevertheless, thereremains a strong awareness of theimportance of environmental andsustainability issues and shortages andconstraints are now an accepted partof everyday living, especially in certainareas and income groups. Hencethere is an ethical consciousnessalthough individuals often displaycontradictory and conflictingbehaviour. Bureaucracies for industrialdevelopment and for environmentalmanagement are very strong, in

55APPENDIXmarked contrast to those for humanservices (health, welfare etc), whichare weak.Science and technologyTechnology is everywhere. It ischeap, mobile and always on. As aresult people are connected locallyand globally, which in turn drivestransparency and ethics. Despite this,there are significant generational andsocial differences, especially whenit comes to getting the very latestand greatest gadgets. Technologynow means that surveillance is a factof life and everything is continuallymonitored and measured. Notsurprisingly, the wealthy use every trickin the technology book to maintaintheir incomes and status.The use of performance and memoryenhancing drugs is commonplace andthe recent appearance of geneticallymodified and enhanced children iscreating all kinds of ethical issues.The new generations are obsessed withtechnology and see it as a cause foroptimism about the future.PoliticsA single party dominates domesticpolitics although the opposition doesscore occasional victories when issueslike the environment become localised.The main swing factors are still theeconomy (especially tax and interestrates), immigration, crime, transport,health and education.Elections are increasingly being foughtand won over the issue of happiness.This is essentially the idea that moneyis no longer everything (once you haveit). Therefore the balance betweenwork and family life has becomemore important and so too has thebalance between private profit andenvironmental and societal health.Internationally, United States andAsian influence is still strong althoughlocal economic, environmentaland security issues tend to trumpregional and even global agreements.Globalisation is in the form of transnationalisationby corporations inalmost seamless association witheconomic rationalist governmentsthrough many bilateral links ratherthan truly global networks. This newethical consciousness – originallycreated when climate changeentered the public mind – is nowbecoming evident in the beginningsof local ‘collectives of concern’ (notyet comprehensive communities),alternative limited-issue politicalparties, new forums (real and virtual)and new media outlets.EconomicsThe economy is good but uneven.Some industries do very well whileothers struggle in the face of low-costcompetition from abroad. There isstill a significant skills shortage butartificial intelligence and robotics aremaking up for this in many areas.The personalisation of productsand services is a major trend, as isuser-pays, which means that peopleeither fly low-cost or business class(metaphorically speaking). Much of theGold Coast is now owned by the newlyrich Russians, Indians and Chineseand there is a major bush/cityeconomic divide.A Farewellto ArmsThis is a world in which …SocietyAustralia is enjoying something of acultural renaissance with immigrants,young people and older peopleall contributing fresh thinking andideas across all areas of society.This is driving innovation andexperimentation in business, the artsand education. Even the media hasshifted away from its metropolitan biasand is now more locally embeddedand positive about everything fromimmigration and climate change to thevalue of children and senior citizens.Family lifeFamilies are seen as vitally importantto the health of the nation. The idea ofthe family has also been extended toinclude older generations and there ismore of a balanced feel across society,especially since married men are nowsubject to legislation about how muchtime they spend at work. Technologyis an important component of familylife but there has been some degreeof technology pushback. Individualsand organisations are realising thata balance is required between amodernity in which things are sped upand people are connected virtually andtraditional communities where thereis a sense of history, relaxation andphysical connectedness.SchoolsSchools are well respected andare at the very centre of the newlyenergisedlocal communities. As aresult there is a high degree of trustin the education establishment andthis enables students and teachers toexperiment with a number of radicalideas, particularly in relation to the useof technology.

56APPENDIXNatureIn this world, the problems of climatechange and drought have been largelydealt with through a combination ofcommunity action and the widespreaddevelopment of technology. Cleanenergy has largely taken over fromfossil fuels and local sustainabilityinitiatives mean that many localcommunities are self-sufficient interms of power, water and foodproduction.National and state politicsAustralia’s leaders have forgedstrong regional alliances coveringeverything from trade and economicrelationships to defence and security.Many of the historical animosities haveevaporated and there is a new senseof co-operation and harmony in theregion. China remains a key tradingpartner but the country has alsodeveloped meaningful relationshipswith a number of other key nations.Domestically, politics has becomemore balanced and empathetictowards the needs of all sections ofsociety, not only because there aremany more female politicians, but alsobecause society is now dominated bywhat can broadly be termed ‘femininevalues’. The public good is now alsodefined more in terms of social andenvironmental impact rather than thewishes of the majority.Domestic economyDespite a few isolated water problemsthe economy is strong and there hasbeen a further shift towards primaryindustries and services.Large-scale manufacturing is weakbut small to medium-sized companiesare flourishing due to a focus oninnovation and quality. Collaborationbetween companies is high and so toois the involvement of customers andsuppliers in the product developmentprocess. The decline of many largefactories has caused localisedemployment problems, especiallywhen these problems coincide withhigh levels of immigration, but localcommunities usually sort theseproblems out without interferencefrom national government.Science and technologyAustralia’s leadership position in somany of the critical new climate andresource-related industries have madethe country the envy of the world.Indeed Australia has been flatteringlydescribed as the new Californiabecause of the mixture of opportunitymindedimmigrants and sunshine.Venture capital is flowing into thecountry and many scientists who leftAustralia for the United Kingdom,United States, China and India ten,twenty and even thirty years agoare returning.The Grapesof WrathThis is a world in which …SocietyLife is a constant struggle. Wateris scarce, which in turn limits theavailability of food and makes manyparts of rural Australia almostunliveable. It is a culture of make doand mend. There is still some moneyabout, mainly in pockets, whichfuels opportunistic street crime andburglary. There is also a significanturban/rural divide as those that canmove to the security of gated urbancommunities. The bush and theoutback are left to families who can’tafford to move, together with the oddcrazy person that has seen Mad Maxtoo many times.Family lifeThe fortress mentality is even morenoticeable at the family level whereextended kinship provides, at least theperception of, comfort and security.Urban tribes develop along the coastof Australia and people collect theirown water and grow their own food inan effort to save money and be selfsufficient.SchoolsSchools are flooded with children fromdrought-affected areas and struggleto keep crime and xenophobia outsidethe school gates.Resource scarcity means that schoolsfind it increasingly difficult to operatenormally and senior students find theeducation experience fairly pointlessgiven the lack of jobs and the dismaloutlook for the planet.

57APPENDIXNatureThe battle against climate change is notgoing well. The weather is increasinglysevere and unpredictable. Flooding anddrought are commonplace, causing thewidespread dislocation of people andmigration on an almost unprecedentedscale.Conversely, some of the remotest andpoorest indigenous communities seemalmost immune to these changes andthe outback is full of foreign televisioncrews, pharmaceutical companies andmanagement consultants studyingeverything from indigenous medicineand bush tucker to tribal law.National and state politicsNational government is focused onsecurity and job creation but politiciansat both state and federal levels haveother problems to contend with. Theeconomy is a washout, the housingmarket is in freefall, illegal immigrationis at an all-time high and there are raceriots in Queensland. Water theft, thedefining crime of the 21st century, is amajor issue.Infrastructure crumbles away as thefunds necessary to maintain serviceslike schools, police, hospitals andtransport are inadequate or the privatecompanies responsible for managingthese public services go broke.Domestic economyLike everywhere else, Australia is hit bya recession although the local droughtis in many ways far worse. As a resultthe outback and bush are increasinglyunliveable and there is a significant,if reluctant, drift back to the majorcities, which decimates ruraleconomies.Globalisation ends and multinationalcompanies struggle in the faceof local patriotism and economicprotectionism.Science and technologyPersonal technology is largelyirrelevant as the focus is on the needto survive. New technologies arecreated but few people have muchmoney to spend on them and mostdevelopment is focused on life-savingand planet-saving science.THE MAGICMOUNTAINThis is a world in which …SocietyThere are few, if any, restrainingforces on business in this world. Legalrestrictions are few and far betweenand social and ethical accountabilityis weak. Global corporations, whichnow include publicly listed schools,stalk the planet in search of profitopportunities almost unhindered bynational politics or regulation. Onthe plus side, ideas like corporatesocial responsibility, the triple bottomline and sustainability are now fullyintegrated into business practicealthough this is often little more thanshort-term self-interest and goodmarketing.Family lifeDivisions within society are stillpartially based upon education andincome but the main distinction isemployment. Corporate tribes havelargely replaced geographical andethnic loyalties resulting in a crisis ofAustralian identity. For the elite, jobsare highly mobile and families areoften forced to pack up and move onto wherever the next posting occurs.In contrast, families that are not partof this privileged world, for example,those living in rural communities,tend to stay in one place and makedo with whatever is on offer in termsof education and employment. Evenchild labour is making a comeback insome areas as families struggle to paythe bills.

58APPENDIXSchoolsSchools are run like corporations andeducation is just another market.Monitoring and measurement isendemic and return on investment isnow a standard educational catchcry.As a result of the free market, there aremany different models of education tochoose from, although the elite tendto play it safe and stick with tried andtested methods that offer a vocationalfocus. School brands are nowinternational and outsourcing is widelyused, especially in the cost-consciouspublic sector. There is significantpolarisation between those schoolsthat are able to attract parental andcorporate sponsorship and supportand those that cannot. Therefore,some schools are well-funded whileothers struggle to provide eventhe most basic learning tools andresources.NatureClimate change and resourceshortages have made corporations andindividuals more responsible in theirconsumption practices but overallco-ordination is weak. This results inperiodic resource panics and hugespikes in the cost of some materials.Climate change has affected someregions more than others but mostdeveloped nations have been ableto spend their way out of troublewith giant civil engineering andinfrastructure projects. Poorer nationshave been less fortunate and rising sealevels have created significant refugeeand migration problems, particularly inSoutheast Asia. Clean energy and nonfossilfuels are being developed butprogress has so far been slow becausenew technologies have allowed thegiant energy companies to scrapeevery last drop of oil from the barrel.National and state politicsPolitics is dominated by free-marketradicals who believe that businessshould be left to run everything. Thereis a small minority of social radicalswho believe that the state should lookafter the interests of the less fortunate,at the least, but the free market ethicis dominant. Corporations control thepolitical and media agenda and thereis a flow of people and ideas betweenthe upper echelons of business andpolitics. Local politics is now almostnon-existent and while there are otherpolitical groupings their influence ismarginal at best. Equally, state politicsis significantly weakened as it is beingsqueezed by global business interests.Domestic economyThe global economy is dominated bythe Asian superpowers, particularlyChina and India. Australia doesrelatively well as a supplier of resourcesto these new superpowers but theeconomy is regularly upset by resourcescares and terrorist attacks on crucialinfrastructure and services.Science and technologyTechnology is a key driver of growthglobally and is fully integrated intoevery aspect of Australian daily life.However, access is uneven, furtherconcentrating power into the handsof the elite. Crucially, access totechnology also determines control ofthe media, which in turn controls thenature of the societal debate. Henceanti-capitalist rhetoric is limited to ahandful of e-action websites and onlinemagazines.Those with the money – primarilybusiness leaders and their families –have access to various performanceand life enhancing technologiesranging from memory downloads toanti-ageing treatments.

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