Early EWC Work's Influence on Climate Change Science Today: A ...

<strong>Early</strong> <strong>EWC</strong> Work’s <strong>Influence</strong> onClimate Change Science Today:A Reverse Historical PerspectiveKirk R. SmithProfessor of Global Environmental HealthUniversity of California, BerkeleySenior Fellow: 1977-1995Adjunct Senior Fellow: 1995-2005East-West Center<strong>EWC</strong>/<strong>EWC</strong>A 50 th Anniversary ConferenceJuly 3, 2010

Stories that could be told• Natural debt: cumulative historical greenhouseemissions as a responsibility metric• Co-benefits (no-regrets, Win-Win): climatemitigation strategies that also achieve healthprotection or other important goals– The importance of household fuels in climate andhealth• Exposure efficiency: Application of exposurescience methods to health and climateassessment• Risk Transition: how environmental risks,including those related to climate change, shiftwith development

Cartogram of Climate-related Mortality (per million pop) yr. 2000This is the distribution of impacts, but whatis the distribution of responsibility for them?From malnutrition, violent weather, heat stress, malaria, diarrhea: WHO estimates.Patz JA, Gibbs HK, Foley JA, Rogers JV, Smith KR, 2007, Climate change andglobal: Quantifying a growing ethical crisis EcoHealth 4(4): 397–405,2007

Who should pay?• Can be based on who can pay, i.e., income or wealth• Good argument that it should be based at least partly onwho caused the problem – polluter pays principle• Fair to ask countries to pay today for what they emitted inthe past, even if ignorant then• Reason: they accepted the benefits of the economic activitythat produced the emissions in the past and thus shouldaccept the debts that were accumulated at the same time.• “Natural debt” is analogous to national debt: not borrowingfinancial resources from the future, but borrowingassimilative capacity of the environment• We put in greenhouse gases faster than they can renaturally removed, building up a debt

AMBIO, 19911996, J WileyUNU Press, 19931993, Still UNU in Press print – still in print

Cumulative CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels(as depleted by natural processes)Natural DebtPatz JA, Gibbs HK, Foley JA, Rogers JV, Smith KR, 2007, Climate change and global:Quantifying a growing ethical crisis EcoHealth 4(4): 397–405, 2007

Distribution of Health Impacts fromClimate Change(Experiencing versus Imposing)10.00DALYs per 10001.000.100.010 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000Income0.00PPP per capitaSmith and Rodgers

Distribution of Health Impacts fromClimate Change(Ratio: Imposing/Experiencing)Ratio10000100010010>8000x different!!Richcountriesimpose>500times morerisk thantheyreceive10.10.010 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000Poor countries receive >16 times more healthrisk than they imposePPP per capita

National Natural Debts:Cumulative CO 2 emissions, depleted by natural processesThis kind of calculation, howeveris based only on CO 2 emissions fromfossil fuels and cement – no othergreenhouse emissionsPatz JA, Gibbs HK, Foley JA, Rogers JV, Smith KR, 2007, Climatechange and global health: Quantifying a growing ethical crisis,EcoHealth 4(4): 397–405, 2007.

How much allocatedto each living personfrom both these GHGs--- our natural debts?Warming in 2005from emissionssince 1750More than halfdue to methaneIPCC, 2007

Distribution of Global Natural Debt Among Top 10 NationsCO2 only in 2005Nb. Land-use changeemissions not areparsed out by countryLUC20%USA21%CHINA8%Other26%RUSSIA6%Brazil: 0.8%FRANCE2% CANADA2% UKRAINEUK3%2% INDIA2%JAPAN4%GERMANY4%Smith and Rogers,in preparation

Distribution of Global Natural Debts in Top 10 NationsCH4 and CO2 in 2005[compared to CO2 alone; note decrease for USA, increase for China,and large increases for India and Brazil]LUC12.9%USA17.1%CHINA10.9%Other33.2%RUSSIA6.2%INDIA5.5%CANADA1.6%UK2.1%BRAZIL2.4%GERMANY3.3%JAPAN2.6%UKRAINE2.1%Nb. National fossil fuel/cement emissions only for CO2, land-use changeemissions are not parsed out by countrySmith and Rogers,in preparation

A series of six articles in The Lancet, Nov 2009Conclusion: Projects to improve household combustionamong the world’s poor seem to have the largest potentialfor co-benefits globally,i.e., significantly protecting both climate and health

Energy for Sustainable Development, 2004

Global Warming by Sector - 2020Unger et al.2010

How much of what pollutants are produced?• Only one database of systematic measurementsavailable for answering this question.• ~30 fuel/stove combinations each in India andChina• Emission factors for ~55 pollutants both healthandclimate‐damaging, along with efficiency• Developed under EPA grant to <strong>EWC</strong> in early 1990sand conducted with TERI/Delhi andTsinghua/Beijing• Published over the late 1990s – still used by IPCCand nearly all other atmospheric sciencemodelers• Only in 2010, is EPA starting to work to updatethis inventory in a systematic way

Chemosphere, 1993

Woodsmoke is natural – how can it hurt you?Or, since wood is mainly just carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen,doesn’t it just change to CO 2 and H 2 O when it is combinedwith oxygen (burned)?Reason: the combustion efficiency is far less than 100%

Energy flows in a well-operating traditionalwood-fired Indian cooking stoveA Toxic Waste Factory!!Wood: 1 kg15.3 MJTraditional 15% moisture StoveTypical biomass cookstoves convert 6-20% of thefuel carbon to toxic substancesInto Pot2.8 MJ18%In PIC1.2 MJ8%Waste Heat11.3 MJ74%PIC = products of incomplete combustion = CO, HC, C, etc.Source:Smith,et al.,2000

Indian Burden of Disease from Top 10 Risk Factorsand Selected Other Risk FactorsUnderweightUnsafe water/sanitation-E*Indoor smoke-EUnsafe sexIron deficiencyIndia: 420,000 deaths/yearGlobally: 1.6 millionTobaccoBlood pressureChild cluster VaccinationCholesterolRoad traffic accidentsZn DeficiencyLow fruit & vegOccupational (5 kinds)-ELead (Pb)-EGlobal ComparativeRisk Assessment, WorldHealth Organization, 2004Climate change-EUrban outdoor air-EKRS from data inWorld HealthReports – 2001, 020% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%Percent of All DALYs in 2000

ALRI/PneumoniaLow birthweightAsthma?Birth defects?CognitiveImpairment?Diseases for which we haveepidemiological studies showinga link to household biomass useAlso burns and scaldsChronicobstructivelung diseaseCataractsLung cancer(cervical,aero-digestive?)Heart disease/strokeTuberculosis?

Atmospheric Environment, 1983Plenum, 1987in print for 20years

International J of Infect Disease, 1999Also <strong>EWC</strong> publications on pneumonia and low birthweight

Study design N* OR 95% CIIntervention 2 1.28 1.06, 1.54Cohort 7 2.12 1.06, 4.25Case-control 15 1.97 1.47, 2.64Crosssectional3 1.49 1.21, 1.85All 26 1.78 1.45, 2.18Dherani et al Bull WHO (2008)

Heart Disease Risk from Combustion ParticlesAdjusted Relative Risk2.52.01.5Exposure fromSecond hand cigarette smoke:Stars, from 2006 Surgeon General Reportand INTERHEART study (Teo et al. 2006)And air pollution:Hex, from Womens Health Initiative cohort,includes all first cardiovascular events,(Miller et al. 2007);Diamonds, from ACS cohort(Pope et al. 1995, 2002, 2004);Triangles, Harvard Six Cities cohort(Dockery et al. 1993; Laden et al. 2006)OAPSHSHousehold AirPollutionExposure from smoking

First person in human history to have her exposuremeasured doing the oldest task in human historyHow can this simple ancient task have so much health risk?Kheda DistrictGujarat, India1981

% Households Using Solid Fuels, 2005

Perfect Storm for Health Impacts• Highly polluting activity• Half of world households• Several times a day• Just when people are present• Most vulnerable (women and youngchildren) most likely to be there

In other words, the Intake Fraction*is extremely largeIF is the fraction of material emittedthat is actually breathed in by someoneIF = 1.0*Concept developed at <strong>EWC</strong> in mid-1980s(called exposure efficiency)

Environmental Management, 1986Environmental Scienceand Technology, 2002

J of Environmental Economics and Management, 1990Climatic Change, 1990

Intake Fractions : these are rough calculations fortypical examples of sources in each classUS Coal Power PlantLDC Power PlantVehiclesNeighborhood SourcesStove Vented OutdoorsStove Vented IndoorsETSCigarette - mainstream“Rule of 1000”Something emittedindoors is about 1000times more likely toinhaled thansomething emittedoutdoors0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000Smith, 1993Grams Inhaled per Ton Emitted

Other implications of household fuels• About one-sixth of human-generated ozone precursors inthe world come from household combustion• About one-third of human-caused carbon monoxide• About one-third of human-caused black carbon• A large amount of other combustion-related particles –30-50% of total in Asia, for example• Thus, regional outdoor air pollution is heavily affected byhousehold combustion in some areas with consequentimpacts on health, agriculture, and ecosystems.• For example, in large Asian river basins with dense ruralpopulations, such as the Yangtze and Ganges.

20-month averageground-level PM2.5from satellite data

Household Fuels a Major SourceCross‐checking of Outdoor results: Air Pollution in Asia%PM 2.5 from “Residential” Emissions from INTEX_B30%0%53%Source: Asian Emission Inventory for NASA INTEX_B 2006 (accessed 2010)38

All presentations and publications available athttp://ehs.sph.berkeley.edu/krsmithOr just google “Kirk R. Smith”Thank you