Büro Karl Holmer Sachverständiger für Kraftfahrzeuge - Echinger Forum

BRANCH: Biodiversity
Requires Adaptations in
North West Europe under a
Changing Climate
www.branchproject.org
Climate change is already influencing
the wildlife of NW Europe. Sea level
rise is affecting coasts and could lead
to unprecedented rates of change to
coastal landscape and wildlife. Climate
change and wildlife responses will
continue to happen for at least another
generation, even if we take all possible
life-style, economic and political
measures to stop fuelling the change.
Understanding and projecting the
response of wildlife is critical to enable
us to manage this response.
BRANCH is a three year multi-partner,
multi-project programme aiming to
identify, develop and advocate spatial
planning mechanisms to allow for the
adaptation of terrestrial and coastal
biodiversity to changing climate in
NW Europe. BRANCH will provide
the evidence and recommendations
to support policy and planning at
all scales by taking further the
science underpinning how our wildlife
might respond to the changes. This
information will provide an analysis
of the risks and benefits of planning
options for responding to change in
terrestrial and coastal habitats and
developing good practice. Natural
England is the lead partner in this
project bringing together partners in
South East England, the Netherlands,
Germany and France.
MONARCH: Modelling
Natural Resource Responses
to Climate Change
MONARCH is a phased investigation
into the impacts of climate change on
the nature conservation resources of
Britain and Ireland. It is an important
step towards understanding the
complex interactions between climate
change, species and habitats. The
first phase of MONARCH developed a
model, SPECIES, that projects areas
of potential suitable climate space
for species at a 10km resolution, and
provides a guide to the possible future
distribution of a species within Britain
and Ireland.
MONARCH 2 sought to develop this
approach at the local and regional
scale, downscaling the model to a
1km resolution within four case study
areas of up to 2500 square kms. The
original SPECIES climate-space model
was expanded to consider the role
of land cover in influencing species’
distributions, the ability of species
to disperse in response to climatic
and land cover changes, and also the
potential effect of these responses
on the structure and function of
ecosystems.
MONARCH 3 has automated the
SPECIES model and applied it to
120 Biodiversity Action Plan species.
The model was also validated by
hindcasting, using historical species’
distribution data. In addition, the
modelling was refined to include
ensemble forecasting to reduce withinmodel
uncertainty and subsequently
used to quantify uncertainty resulting
from projections of future climate.
MACIS: Minimisation of, and
adaptation to, climate change
impacts on biodiversity
www.macis-project.net
MACIS is an EU project which will review
and meta-analyse existing projections of
climate change impacts on biodiversity.
It will assess available options to
prevent and minimise negative impacts
for EU countries up to 2050 and review
the state of the art on methods to
assess the probable future impacts of
climate change on biodiversity.
The strategic objectives of MACIS
include:
• To review the state of the art on
methods to assess the probable
future impacts of climate change
on biodiversity.
• To review possible climate change
adaptation and mitigation measures
and their potential effect on future
biodiversity.
• To further develop a series of
biodiversity and habitat models
that address biodiversity impacts,
and are capable of calculating the
consequences of changes in the
trends in drivers as specified by the
narrative scenarios provided by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC).
• To identify policy options at EU,
national, regional and local levels
to prevent and minimise negative
impacts from climate change and
from climate change adaptation
and mitigation measures.
Biodiversity, Climate Change
and Regional Policy
This research project will inform regional
decision-makers about the likely impacts
of climate change on biodiversity and of
the policy implications of such impacts.
The three year project will ascertain
how characteristic species and their
habitats in each of England’s regions
will be affected by climate change over
the next 50 years, and provide clear
concise guidance for those involved
in the decision-making process. It is
envisaged that this will be of particular
relevance to regional spatial planning
and associated activities.
Key Publications
Berry, P.M., Rounsevell, M.D.A.,
Harrison, P.A. and Audsley, E.
(2006). Assessing the vulnerability
of agricultural land use
and species to climate change
and the role of policy in facilitating
adaptation.Environmental
Science and Policy, 9, 189-204.
del Barrio, G., Harrison, P.A.,
Berry, P.M., Butt, N., Sanjuan,
M., Pearson, R.G. and Dawson,
T. (2006). Integrating multiple
modelling approaches to predict
the potential impacts of climate
change on species’ distributions
in contrasting regions: comparison
and implications for policy.
Environmental Science and
Policy, 9, 129-147.
Harrison, P.A., Berry, P.M., Butt,
N. and New, M. (2006). Modelling
climate change impacts
on species’ distributions at the
European scale: Implications
for conservation policy. Environmental
Science and Policy, 9,
116-128.
Berry, P.M., Harrison, P.A.,
Dawson, T.P. and Walmsley,
C.A. (2005). Climate change
and nature conservation in the
UK and Ireland: modelling
natural resource responses to
climate change (MONARCH2).
UKCIP report.
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