Mountains of Concrete - International Rivers

Former President Musharrafin his address to the nation in2006 said that “constructingtwo to three dams is inevitable”and “urgently needed” forPakistan by the year 2020 as “thedevelopment of [the] agriculturesector is the only and effectiveway to check poverty…Morewater will help us irrigate moreland along with the constructionof canals and it will help increaseour agriculture production andPakistan’s economy will Inshallah prosper further…” 31While Musharraf is no longer the president, this viewis well entrenched, both with the national technocracy andthe World Bank. The World Bank’s “Pakistan Country WaterStrategy” argues strongly that there is “the urgent need forconstruction of major new storage on the Indus.” 32It is ironic that a major argument for the necessity ofnew big dams is that heavy sedimentation has led to the lossof storage capacity of the biggest existing dams like Tarbelaand Mangla, and so new dams are needed as replacements.This ignores the fact that the proposed new reservoirs in theHimalayas would face the same sedimentation problems, asthese rivers carry heavy silt loads.Thus, even for the largest hydropower dams like Diamer-Bhasha, agriculture continues to be the primary justification.Consider this excerpt from the former President’s websiteon the Diamer-Bhasha Dam:NEED OF THE PROJECTAgriculture is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy.Pakistan today is among one of the World’s fastestgrowing populations, now estimated at over 150million. Due to the lack of large river regulationcapability through sizeable storages, the country isalready facing serious shortages in food grains. Giventhe present trend, Pakistan could soon become oneof the food deficit countries in the near future.Therefore, there is a dire need to build storages foraugmenting agriculture production. 33This is a key emotional and political driver for many ofthe new dams. One of the reasons why irrigation andagriculture have been the main political arguments used topromote dams could be that until 2005, Pakistan seemed tohave surplus power even during peak demand times. 34 Thesituation has now changed with rampant power cuts andpower shortages. The power deficit is predicted to grow to5,500 MW by 2010 unless new power projects are broughtonline. Furthermore, about 40% of firms in Pakistanidentified electricity as a major constraint for the operationand growth of their businesses; a quarter of the Pakistanipopulation has no access to electricity at all. 35Several observers have noted that the “reforms”in the power sector initiated at the behest of theWorld Bank and the Asian Development Bank(ADB) since the 1990s have led to a number ofpeople losing access to electricity as tariffs haverisen sharply and subsidies have been cut back.Thus the need to meet increasing electricity demandsis also becoming an important justification for the big damplans in Pakistan.IndiaIn India, the basic driver for hydropower is the demand forelectricity.India continues to be plagued by power and energyshortages. Overall for the country, peak power demand inthe year 2007-08 was 108,886 MW, while the peak powerdemand met was 90,793 MW; there was a shortfall of 18,093MW or 16.6% of peak demand. 36 The energy demand inthe same year was 737,052 GWh, towards which energyavailability was 664,660 GWh. This was a deficit of 72,392GWh, or 9.8%.A large portion of Indian society does not have accessto electricity. According to the Working Group on Powerfor the 11 th Five Year Plan, 154,567 villages, or a full 26% ofthe inhabited villages in the country, were without access toelectricity in 2006. 37 The household-level picture is worse;according to the 2001 Census, 44.2% of households in Indiadid not have access to electricity. 38Shortages affecting urban centres are also leading todemonstrations, violence and riots in some parts of thecountry. At the same time, vulnerable sections of society,like the poor, and small and marginal farmers, are findingaccess to electricity more and more difficult due to a lack ofphysical access or increasing tariffs.The government of India also argues for an increase inpower generation capacity in order to meet some declaredsocial objectives. These, as articulated in the NationalElectricity Policy of February 2005, include:n Access to Electricity – Available for all households in thenext five years;n Availability of Power – Demand to be fully met by 2012with energy and peaking shortages to be overcome (the“Power on Demand” policy);n Per capita availability of electricity to be increased toover 1,000 units (1,000 KWh) by 2012;n Minimum lifeline consumption of 1 unit (1 KWh)/household/day by the year 2012. 39Mountains of Concrete: Dam Building in the Himalayas | 9