Seismicity and SedimentationMuch <strong>of</strong> the area in which the Himalayan dams are proposedis a high-risk seismic zone. This can have severe implicationsfor both the safety <strong>of</strong> the projects and the surroundingareas.WAPDA in Pakistan rates the seismicity at the Diamer-Bhasha Dam site higher than at other project sites. 104 Inseveral places in Arunachal Pradesh, fear <strong>of</strong> the colossaldestruction and loss <strong>of</strong> life and property in the case <strong>of</strong> a dambreak haunts the people. 105Another possible threat from an earthquake is that theresultant landslides and land-shifting could block riversand create “quake dams” – temporary dams created fromearthquake loosened debris – which could pose risks <strong>of</strong>catastrophic failure. The floods resulting from such damscould have a cascading impact on the man-made damswith disastrous results. As a consequence <strong>of</strong> the 2008Sichuan earthquake in China, “as <strong>of</strong> May 27, 2008, 34 lakeshad formed in nine earthquake-affected counties due toearthquake debris blocking and damming rivers.” 106While dam builders continue to play down seismicthreats by saying that it is not a problem, given the currentand past records <strong>of</strong> the dam building authorities, it is clearthat the people do not have faith in these statements. Itis therefore imperative that the issue <strong>of</strong> seismic risk beevaluated and studied by independent panels <strong>of</strong> experts whocan convey the true risks to the people.The problem <strong>of</strong> sedimentation in reservoirs is also goingto be particularly severe in the Himalayas. The Himalayasare young mountains and are highly prone to erosion. Thus,most <strong>of</strong> the rivers carry heavy silt loads. Moreover, theregion is prone to landslides that can increase siltation inthe reservoirs, and can also trigger large waves and/or flashfloods. Construction activities related to dam building canalso lead to an increase in landslides and erosion. Siltationis a serious issue as it affects the performance and life <strong>of</strong> aproject. In Pakistan, Warsak Reservoir on the Kabul River,built in 1960, has become fully silted and power generationis only achieved according to water inflows in Kabul River,much as would happen with a “run-<strong>of</strong>-river” project. 107 By2004, the Tarbela Reservoir had lost 28% <strong>of</strong> its gross storagedue to silt accumulation, and the Mangla and Chashmareservoirs had lost 22% and 45%, respectively. In actualterms, the total storage lost was 4.89 million acre feet (MAF).WAPDA predicts that by 2025, Tarbela will have lost 47% <strong>of</strong>its storage, Mangla 34% and Chashma 57%, totalling nearly8 MAF. 108 Ironically, this loss <strong>of</strong> storage is also one <strong>of</strong> thekey arguments presented for creating new storage projects,while conveniently forgetting that new dams would faceprecisely the same siltation problems. The accumulation<strong>of</strong> sediment behind these dams also deprives downstreamplains <strong>of</strong> nutrients and silt deposits that have been the source<strong>of</strong> their fertility.Impacts <strong>of</strong> Transmission LinesA unique feature <strong>of</strong> the Himalayan dams is that they areplanned in areas that are far from major load centres.Hence, these projects will require construction <strong>of</strong> longtransmission lines, which will push up the cost <strong>of</strong> energyfrom the projects. The transmission lines will require landand thus more people could be displaced. Furthermore, asthese lines will traverse through difficult terrain and fragileecosystems, they are likely to have significant impacts on theenvironment. Yet there seems to have been little assessment<strong>of</strong> these impacts.Projects in Nepal seem to be the only ones to explicitlymention the amount <strong>of</strong> land required for transmission lines.As an example, the West Seti project plans to acquire 7 km 2(678 ha) <strong>of</strong> land for transmission lines.The impacts from transmission line construction willbe an important issue in Pakistan, Nepal and Bhutan. Amajor impact will be felt in India in the Siliguri Corridoror “Chicken’s neck” – the area between Siliguri and BidhanNagar in West Bengal – which is the only connection fromthe Indian mainland to the states in the northeast. This areais the only way to transmit power from Bhutan to India,and from India’s northeast to the rest <strong>of</strong> the country; thetransmission lines will have to be bunched together here.The Working Group on Power for the 11 th Five Year Planin India estimates that to transmit all the surplus powerfrom northeastern India and Bhutan will require a set <strong>of</strong>transmission lines with a right <strong>of</strong> way about 1.5 km wide. 109Silt accumulation upstream <strong>of</strong> Teesta V Dam, 2008. Siltation is aserious issue as it affects the performance and life <strong>of</strong> a project, andalso deprives downstream plains <strong>of</strong> nutrients that have been thesource <strong>of</strong> their fertility. Photo: River Basin Friends, India28 | <strong>International</strong> <strong>Rivers</strong>
The impact on this ecologically sensitive area is a questionthat remains to be answered. Indeed, it has hardly been asked.(For a map showing the “Chicken’s neck,” see Box 6)Greenhouse Gas EmissionsHydropower is <strong>of</strong>ten portrayed as an important weaponin the fight against climate change, claiming that itproduces very small amounts <strong>of</strong> greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions. 110 However, it is now recognised that big damscan be significant sources <strong>of</strong> GHGs, including methane.The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change’s(IPCC) “Technical Report on Climate Change and Water”notes that “Hydrodams are a source <strong>of</strong> renewable energy.Nevertheless, they produce greenhouse gas emissionsthemselves. The magnitude <strong>of</strong> these emissions depends onspecific circumstance and mode <strong>of</strong> operation.” 111Calculations carried out by Himanshu Thakkar <strong>of</strong>SANDRP based on a study by Ivan Lima and colleaguesfrom Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE)show that the methane emissions from Indian big damscontribute 18.7% <strong>of</strong> the total GHG emissions in India. 112This means that the claim that hydropower is climatefriendly is a myth.Although the net emissions from a dam depend onseveral site and design specific factors – and therefore need tobe estimated on a case by case basis – this is not being donefor most <strong>of</strong> the projects under construction and planning.Disastrous Track RecordWhile the social and environmental impacts <strong>of</strong> the proposeddams are likely to be severe, the record <strong>of</strong> these countries <strong>of</strong>assessing, avoiding, mitigating or compensating for past bigdam projects does not inspire confidence.In Pakistan, the refugees <strong>of</strong> Tarbela Dam were notresettled or compensated properly, even several decades afterthe dam was completed. 113 The oustees from Bhakra Damin India, displaced in the late 1940s and early 1950s, arestill fighting for proper rehabilitation. Indeed, the WorldCommission on Dams (WCD) notes that in India, over 75%<strong>of</strong> people displaced by big dams have not been rehabilitatedand are impoverished. 114The record on the environmental front is no better.EIAs and other assessments for individual projects are <strong>of</strong>ten<strong>of</strong> poor quality, and cumulative impact assessments <strong>of</strong> severalprojects taken together are virtually absent. There is littleBox 6The red circle shows the “chicken’s neck” throughwhich all power from Bhutan and northeastern Indiawill be transmitted to rest <strong>of</strong> the country.http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d8/Chickensneckindia.jpgattempt at planning projects in such a way as to avoid orminimise displacement and environmental impacts. Socialand environmental criteria are minimally considered indecision making and planning processes related to damprojects.In India, even the limited and flawed safeguards <strong>of</strong>feredby the environmental clearance procedure have now beendiluted through recent changes. The EIA Notification <strong>of</strong>September 2006 puts enormous discretion in the hands <strong>of</strong>authorities; they can now do away with a public hearingthat was earlier mandatory. The right <strong>of</strong> participation in thehearing has also been restricted to “local people.”The continuing absence <strong>of</strong> proper safeguards and theexclusion <strong>of</strong> social and environmental criteria from thedecision making process mean that current and proposeddams are likely to create massive social and environmentaldisruptions.M o u n ta i n s o f C o n c r e t e : D a m B u i l d i n g i n t h e H i m a l aya s | 2 9