Giant_and_Dwarf-FIN

Giant and Dwarfanother energy commodity—natural gas. In the case of Egypt, which tried the same move,since the fall of the previous regime, has witnessed repeated sabotages of the pipelinesleading to Jordan, Syria and Israel by Islamists. This does not bode well for the Egyptianeconomy. Egypt and Tunisia have also become major tourist destinations for millions ofEuropeans. The economic crisis which both Europe and the United States were totteringin 2011 and 2012, together with the impact of peak oil on the cost of air travel, constitutesan even bigger and more permanent threat for tourism than all the disturbances of theArab spring 31 or the ideas of the Islamists to ban bikinis 32 and alcoholic drinks in sea resorts.Sustaining incomes and employment in the tourism industry depends heavily on whereglobal oil and food prices go and how quickly. Increasingly expensive oil and food will leadto a steady decline in tourist numbers. First Czechs, Poles, and Russians, but over time alsoGermans, French and many others from rich European countries will no longer be able toafford increasingly expensive air travel to remote destinations.Regardless of what kind of governments emerge from the Jasmine maelstrom—formaldemocracies, military regimes or religious dictatorships—there is yet another difficultylurking on the horizon for MENA countries in addition to depleted oil fields and rising foodcosts. Arab countries are at great risk of becoming permanently destabilized by extremenumbers of young people in the population. A high proportion of young men without jobsor prospects will become a particularly serious problem for the entire MENA region evenwithout any other challenges, and will threaten its long-term stability.Masses of young, poor, unemployed men are being left without the chance to get marriedand start a family. Such young men are more or less condemned to wander aroundaimlessly in youth gangs. A prudish society suppressing informal contact with women fullyguarantees a build-up of sexual frustration and aggression and prevents a “calming influence”on the personalities of young men. Even today, without the possibility of fulfillmentat work or family, too many young men are left looking for other ways of achieving a placeand recognition in their society. Without responsibility for their families and children, adolescentmen are free to behave in a rash and risky manner. Such a generational psyche isfertile ground for those able to offer young men an alternative sense of importance andself-esteem. When you are twenty-something with no commitments or prospects, dying isan option. For many, “death in action” may be the only way to gain recognition. If one hasonly one’s chains to lose, the choice appears to be very easy.A multitude of restless young men will maintain a potentially high risk of violence inMENA countries limiting the chances for peaceful development in the region. The decisiveblows for the MENA region, however, will come from the inability of the desert ecosystems31 The number of tourists in Tunisia dropped by 45 % and in Egypt by at least 30 % as an unintended resultof the “Arab spring”. It happened even before the worsening of the financial crisis in Europe. See forinstance “Arab nations aim to win back tourists“, BBC, 2011-01-10 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15651730.32 Obviously, the Islamists’ plan is not to begin a nationwide push for nudist beaches...52