PROBABILISTIC-BASED HURRICANE RISK ASSESSMENT AND ...

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Figure 4.10: Effects of Degradation on the Probability of Failure NESC Design Case 4....................................................................................................................... 151Figure 4.11: Effects of Degradation on Annual Pf for Various Scenarios of ClimateChange after 100 years for ASCE Design Case 1......................................... 154Figure 4.12: Effects of Degradation on Annual Pf for Various Scenarios of ClimateChange after 100 years for NESC Design Case 2......................................... 154Figure 4.13: Effects of Degradation on Annual Pf for Various Scenarios of ClimateChange after 100 years for NESC Design Case 3......................................... 155Figure 4.14: Effects of Degradation on Annual Pf for Various Scenarios of ClimateChange after 100 years NESC Design Case 4 .............................................. 155Figure 4.15: Updated Annual Pf for no change in wind speed ....................................... 157Figure 4.16: Updated Annual Pf for 10% increase in wind speed in 100 years ............. 157Figure 5.1: Typical Power Distribution Pole System (Bjarnadottir et al. 2012)............. 171Figure 5.2: Fragility Curves for Class 5 Distribution Pole of Varying Age ................... 185Figure 5.3: Updated Annual p f (Bjarnadottir et al. 2012) ............................................... 186Figure 5.4: Cumulative LCC of the “Do Nothing” Case and the Mitigation Strategies atYear 2060, for α=5% per year ...................................................................... 190Figure 5.5: 10 th , 50 th , and 90 th Percentile Values of the Cumulative LCC for the “DoNothing” Case and Mitigation Strategies at Year 2060 ................................ 191Figure 5.6: 10th, 50th, and 90 th Percentile Values of the Net Benefit for the MitigationStrategies at Year 2060 ................................................................................. 192Figure 5.7: Probability of Exceedance for Distirbution Poles for: a) the “Do Nothing”Case and b) Mitigation Strategy 2 ................................................................ 193Figure 6.1: Histogram of Wind Speeds........................................................................... 207Figure 6.2: Histogram of Surge Heights Assuming a Slope of 1:250 ............................ 209xii
Figure 6.3: Distributions of CCSVI(50) for various scenarios of climate change. (a) Noincrease in wind speed and surge height (b) 5% increase in wind speed andsurge height (c) 10% increase in wind speed and surge height (d) 15%increase in wind speed and surge height. ...................................................... 227xiii
Page 6 and 7: 4.3 Design of Power Distribution Po
Page 8 and 9: 6.6 Conclusions and Future Work ...
Page 10 and 11: List of FiguresFigure 1.1:Simulatio
Page 14 and 15: List of TablesTable 2.1: Percentage
Page 16 and 17: PrefaceThe research presented in th
Page 18 and 19: AcknowledgementsI would like to sta
Page 20 and 21: AbstractStudies are suggesting that
Page 22 and 23: Chapter 1__________________________
Page 24 and 25: 1.1 Literature Review and Critical
Page 26 and 27: assumed, between now and 2080, it c
Page 28: due to climate change. Similar rese
Page 33 and 34: The "peaks-over-threshold" method i
Page 35 and 36: Hurricane vulnerability models deve
Page 37 and 38: vulnerability of structures to dama
Page 39 and 40: purchase insurance to protect again
Page 41 and 42: 1.1.4 Hurricane Risk for Power Dist
Page 43 and 44: for both the potential impacts of c
Page 45 and 46: where Q is air density factor, k i
Page 47 and 48: degradation due to the ageing of ut
Page 49: aspects of climate change and may n
Page 52 and 53: • Climatic adaptation should be d
Page 54 and 55: surge height model, and hurricane v
Page 56 and 57: that assesses the cost-effectivenes
Page 58 and 59: Dagher, H.J., Lu, Q., and Peyrot, A
Page 60 and 61: Grigg, N.S, and Helweg, O.J. (1975)
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Knuston, T.R., McBride, J.L., Chan,
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Mitsuta, Y., Fujii, T., and Nagashi
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Rumpf, J., Weindl, H., Hoppe, P., R
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USACE (1970) Guidelines for Flood I
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Chapter 2__________________________
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devastating effect of Hurricane Kat
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There is a great uncertainty, both
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they can be incorporated into the f
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These are increases of 15.9% and 35
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50% greater than the house replacem
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wind speed of 5% with COV of 0.50 i
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different exposure sites, differenc
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damage costs can be reduced by arou
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3. Strengthening a percentage of co
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1.201.00Net Benefit, E b ($ billion
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2.001.50Net Benefit, E b ($ billion
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Figure 2.11 shows adaptation strate
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ecause of the sheer number of housi
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An increase of 5% and 10% in wind s
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the reduction factor (50% or 80%),
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[22] AGO. An Assessment of the Need
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[42] Pinelli JP, Torkian BB, Gurley
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3.1 AbstractThis paper presents a f
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over the last 100 years. For exampl
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these peaks have a Poisson arrival
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The parameters in Table 3.1 are imp
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3.5 Regional Loss Estimation Consid
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where j represents the exposure sit
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3.6.1 Annual Regional Loss Estimati
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wind or frequency) is 0.0260, 0.020
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increasing the frequency of hurrica
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Figure 3.3: Cumulative Damage Costs
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eplacement house value is $98,000,
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that the sea level rise may vary al
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Table 3.8: Combined Hurricane Damag
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Figure 3.6: Percentage Change in Da
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Hanover County, and $120 million pe
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Bjarnadottir, S., Li, Y. and Stewar
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Johnson, B. (2005) After the Disast
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National Cooperative Highway Resear
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Structural Engineers- Proc. Structu
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Chapter 4__________________________
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customers in New Orleans, Louisiana
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Southern pine is the most common ma
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type of load being designed for. Di
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Figure 4.2: Flowchart of the Design
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a(t) = π (D − 32 d(t))3 (4.6)whe
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3025Decay Depth (mm)201510500 5 10
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eliability of the pole, while the p
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f v (V, t) = α(t)u(t) ∙ Vu(t)
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Table 4.2: Design Variables and Val
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The wind load for the poles is dete
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parameters. Fragility curves are de
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4.6.3 Effect of Degradation on P fT
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2 and 3. This is attributed to the
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10.9Probability of Failure0.80.70.6
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Table 4.8: Annual P f for Design Ca
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0.250.20P f0.150.100.0550 years30 y
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Updated Annual P f1.00.90.80.70.60.
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4.7 ConclusionsThis paper proposes
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Bhuyan, G., and Li, H. (2006) Achie
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Kwasinski, A., Weaver, W.W., Chapma
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Vanderbilt, M D., Criswell, M.E., F
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Chapter 5__________________________
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(Johnson 2005). Hurricane Andrew, i
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Figure 5.1: Typical Power Distribut
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where R(t) is the actual capacity o
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speeds than poles located further i
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eplacement in these exposure catego
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the larger pole and therefore a low
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that specified by the U.K. is used
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Table 5.2: Statistics for Wind Load
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Figure 5.2: Fragility Curves for Cl
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initial strength of Class 5 poles f
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decreased vulnerability of the pole
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2060. These results confirm the res
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Figure 5.7: Probability of Exceedan
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American Society of Civil Engineers
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Leicester, R.H., Wang, C.H., Minh,
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Viscusi, W.K. (2007) Rational Disco
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6.1 AbstractThis paper presents the
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social characteristics may have an
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(HDRI). The HDRI was calculated by
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The maximum annual wind speed for M
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Using the Irish model and data from
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6.3.3 Coastal Community Social Vuln
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H surge (t) = X H2 (t)(6.7b)where H
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Queensland, Australia. A recent stu
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Table 6.2: Results of PCA, includin
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Table 6.3: Social Indicators for th
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Lambert (2001). The second ratio (4
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height of 5%. From this comparison,
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their respective region to hurrican
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Figure 6.3: Distributions of CCSVI(
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including injury and death can be c
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GAO (2007) Climate Change: Financia
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Pryor, S.C., Barthelmie, R.J., and
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Chapter 7__________________________
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specifications, etc. Aging effects
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estimate system reliability indices
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esidential construction and then ad
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parameters, and the social characte
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Chapter 8__________________________
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the mitigation strategies, it was f
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Baraneedaran, S., Gad, E.F., Flatle
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Climate Change Advisory Task Force.
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FEMA (1999). HAZUS-MH Hurricane Mod
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Gustavsen, B., and Rolfseng, L. (20
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Klima, K., Lin, N., Emanuel, K., Mo
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Li, Y. and Stewart, M.G. (2011) Cyc
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National Research Council (NRC) (20
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Pistrika A. and Jonkman S. (2010).
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Scawthorn, C., Blais, N., Seligson,
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Unanwa, C.O., and McDonald, J.R. (2
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Wang, C.-h., Leicester, R.H., and N
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Appendix I_________________________
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Table AI.2: The expected cumulative
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Percentage Increase in Cumulative D
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Table AI.3: Comparing the net benef
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Figure AI.3 shows the various combi
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Appendix II________________________
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Figure AII.1: Fragility Curve for C
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Appendix III_______________________
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AIII.2 ResultsA principal component
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Appendix IV________________________
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Expected completion dateEstimated s
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This is documentation for Chapters
Page 316 and 317:
may use the publisher-supplied PDF
Page 318 and 319:
This is documentation for Chapter 6
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