PROBABILISTIC-BASED HURRICANE RISK ASSESSMENT AND ...

1.1 Literature Review and Critical AppraisalThe following provides a comprehensive literature review on Climate Change,Uncertainty, Risk, and Probabilistic Analysis, Hurricane Wind Field Models, Hurricane-Induced Storm Surge Height Models, Hurricane Vulnerability Models, PowerDistribution Poles (Design, Damage and Fragility), Climatic Adaptation, and SocialVulnerability Metrics. In addition, a critical appraisal is included to illustrate the presentstate-of-the-art and to assess what is lacking.1.1.1 Climatic Change and its Impact of Natural Hazard PatternsRising sea surface temperatures (SST) are accepted as a direct result of the global climatechange as stated in a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC2007). Studies have suggested a relationship between the rising sea surface temperaturesand hurricane intensity (Webster et al. 2005). Emanuel (2005) concluded that for everyincrease in SST of 1°C the peak wind speed of hurricanes could increase byapproximately 5%. Elsner (2006) confirmed findings that climate change results inhigher SST, and higher SST translates to more energy that can be converted to strongerhurricane winds. If SST increase by 2.2°C, Knutson et al. (1998) and Knutson andTuleya (1999) estimated that hurricane intensity may increase by 5% to 10%. Scavia etal. (2002) added that increases in hurricane intensity of this magnitude may result in theincrease of the destructive power of hurricanes by approximately 25%. Knutson et al.(2010) estimates that in the 21st century hurricane wind speeds may increase by 2% to11% around the world. The CCSP (2008) found that the frequency of hurricanes mayincrease as hurricane wind speeds increase. In contrast, Knutson et al. (2008) andKnutson et al. (2010) estimate that globally the average number of hurricanes willdecrease by -6% to -34% as a result of global climate change, but Knutson et al. (2010)also states that the occurrence of higher intensity hurricanes (Category 4 and 5) mayincrease. Bender et al. (2010) verifies these findings by stating that due to the changingglobal climate the frequency of hurricanes in general will decrease, but that the numberof very intense hurricanes may increase.3