PROBABILISTIC-BASED HURRICANE RISK ASSESSMENT AND ...

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PrefaceThe research presented in this dissertation has been part of research work carried out atMichigan Technological University in the period of 2008-2012. This dissertationcontains material that has been previously published (Chapter 2, 4, and 6), accepted forpublication (Chapter 5), and submitted for publication (Chapter 3). Each paper is writtenaccording to the style required from the journal which it was published. The authorperformed the research and wrote the papers, with guidance and editing provided by Dr.Yue Li and Dr. Mark Stewart.Chapter 2 contains the journal paper "A Probabilistic-based Framework for Impact andAdaptation Assessment of Climate Change on Hurricane Damage Risks and Costs”which has been published in the journal Structural Safety.• Bjarnadottir, S., Li, Y. and Stewart, M.G. (2011) A Probabilistic-basedFramework for Impact and Adaptation Assessment of Climate Change on HurricaneDamage Risks and Costs, Structural Safety, 33(3), 173-185.Chapter 4 contains the journal paper "Hurricane Risk Assessment of Power DistributionPoles Considering Impacts of a Changing Climate" which has been published in thejournal Journal of Infrastructure Systems, ASCE.• Bjarnadottir, S., Li, Y. and Stewart, M.G. (2012) Hurricane Risk Assessment ofPower Distribution Poles Considering Impacts of A Changing Climate, Journal ofInfrastructure Systems, ASCE (In press).Chapter 6 contains the journal paper "Social Vulnerability Index for CoastalCommunities at Risk to Hurricane Hazard and a Changing Climate" which has beenpublished in the journal Natural Hazards.• Bjarnadottir, S., Li, Y. and Stewart, M.G. (2011) Social Vulnerability Index forCoastal Communities at Risk to Hurricane Hazard and a Changing Climate, NaturalHazards 59(2), 1055-1575.xvi
Chapter 5 contains the journal paper "Risk-Based Economic Assessment of MitigationStrategies for Power Distribution Poles Subjected to Hurricanes" which has beenaccepted to the journal Structure and Infrastructure Engineering.Chapter 3 contains the journal paper "Regional Loss Estimation Due to Hurricane windand Hurricane-Induced Surge Considering Climate Variability which has been submittedto the journal Structure and Infrastructure Engineering.xvii
Page 6 and 7: 4.3 Design of Power Distribution Po
Page 8 and 9: 6.6 Conclusions and Future Work ...
Page 10 and 11: List of FiguresFigure 1.1:Simulatio
Page 12 and 13: Figure 4.10: Effects of Degradation
Page 14 and 15: List of TablesTable 2.1: Percentage
Page 18 and 19: AcknowledgementsI would like to sta
Page 20 and 21: AbstractStudies are suggesting that
Page 22 and 23: Chapter 1__________________________
Page 24 and 25: 1.1 Literature Review and Critical
Page 26 and 27: assumed, between now and 2080, it c
Page 28: due to climate change. Similar rese
Page 33 and 34: The "peaks-over-threshold" method i
Page 35 and 36: Hurricane vulnerability models deve
Page 37 and 38: vulnerability of structures to dama
Page 39 and 40: purchase insurance to protect again
Page 41 and 42: 1.1.4 Hurricane Risk for Power Dist
Page 43 and 44: for both the potential impacts of c
Page 45 and 46: where Q is air density factor, k i
Page 47 and 48: degradation due to the ageing of ut
Page 49: aspects of climate change and may n
Page 52 and 53: • Climatic adaptation should be d
Page 54 and 55: surge height model, and hurricane v
Page 56 and 57: that assesses the cost-effectivenes
Page 58 and 59: Dagher, H.J., Lu, Q., and Peyrot, A
Page 60 and 61: Grigg, N.S, and Helweg, O.J. (1975)
Page 62 and 63: Knuston, T.R., McBride, J.L., Chan,
Page 64 and 65: Mitsuta, Y., Fujii, T., and Nagashi
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Rumpf, J., Weindl, H., Hoppe, P., R
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USACE (1970) Guidelines for Flood I
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Chapter 2__________________________
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devastating effect of Hurricane Kat
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There is a great uncertainty, both
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they can be incorporated into the f
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These are increases of 15.9% and 35
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50% greater than the house replacem
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wind speed of 5% with COV of 0.50 i
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different exposure sites, differenc
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damage costs can be reduced by arou
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3. Strengthening a percentage of co
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1.201.00Net Benefit, E b ($ billion
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2.001.50Net Benefit, E b ($ billion
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Figure 2.11 shows adaptation strate
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ecause of the sheer number of housi
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An increase of 5% and 10% in wind s
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the reduction factor (50% or 80%),
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[22] AGO. An Assessment of the Need
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[42] Pinelli JP, Torkian BB, Gurley
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3.1 AbstractThis paper presents a f
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over the last 100 years. For exampl
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these peaks have a Poisson arrival
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The parameters in Table 3.1 are imp
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3.5 Regional Loss Estimation Consid
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where j represents the exposure sit
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3.6.1 Annual Regional Loss Estimati
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wind or frequency) is 0.0260, 0.020
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increasing the frequency of hurrica
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Figure 3.3: Cumulative Damage Costs
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eplacement house value is $98,000,
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that the sea level rise may vary al
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Table 3.8: Combined Hurricane Damag
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Figure 3.6: Percentage Change in Da
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Hanover County, and $120 million pe
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Bjarnadottir, S., Li, Y. and Stewar
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Johnson, B. (2005) After the Disast
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National Cooperative Highway Resear
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Structural Engineers- Proc. Structu
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Chapter 4__________________________
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customers in New Orleans, Louisiana
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Southern pine is the most common ma
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type of load being designed for. Di
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Figure 4.2: Flowchart of the Design
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a(t) = π (D − 32 d(t))3 (4.6)whe
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3025Decay Depth (mm)201510500 5 10
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eliability of the pole, while the p
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f v (V, t) = α(t)u(t) ∙ Vu(t)
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Table 4.2: Design Variables and Val
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The wind load for the poles is dete
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parameters. Fragility curves are de
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4.6.3 Effect of Degradation on P fT
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2 and 3. This is attributed to the
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10.9Probability of Failure0.80.70.6
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Table 4.8: Annual P f for Design Ca
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0.250.20P f0.150.100.0550 years30 y
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Updated Annual P f1.00.90.80.70.60.
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4.7 ConclusionsThis paper proposes
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Bhuyan, G., and Li, H. (2006) Achie
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Kwasinski, A., Weaver, W.W., Chapma
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Vanderbilt, M D., Criswell, M.E., F
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Chapter 5__________________________
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(Johnson 2005). Hurricane Andrew, i
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Figure 5.1: Typical Power Distribut
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where R(t) is the actual capacity o
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speeds than poles located further i
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eplacement in these exposure catego
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the larger pole and therefore a low
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that specified by the U.K. is used
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Table 5.2: Statistics for Wind Load
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Figure 5.2: Fragility Curves for Cl
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initial strength of Class 5 poles f
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decreased vulnerability of the pole
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2060. These results confirm the res
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Figure 5.7: Probability of Exceedan
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American Society of Civil Engineers
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Leicester, R.H., Wang, C.H., Minh,
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Viscusi, W.K. (2007) Rational Disco
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6.1 AbstractThis paper presents the
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social characteristics may have an
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(HDRI). The HDRI was calculated by
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The maximum annual wind speed for M
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Using the Irish model and data from
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6.3.3 Coastal Community Social Vuln
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H surge (t) = X H2 (t)(6.7b)where H
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Queensland, Australia. A recent stu
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Table 6.2: Results of PCA, includin
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Table 6.3: Social Indicators for th
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Lambert (2001). The second ratio (4
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height of 5%. From this comparison,
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their respective region to hurrican
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Figure 6.3: Distributions of CCSVI(
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including injury and death can be c
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GAO (2007) Climate Change: Financia
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Pryor, S.C., Barthelmie, R.J., and
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Chapter 7__________________________
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specifications, etc. Aging effects
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estimate system reliability indices
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esidential construction and then ad
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parameters, and the social characte
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Chapter 8__________________________
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the mitigation strategies, it was f
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Baraneedaran, S., Gad, E.F., Flatle
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Climate Change Advisory Task Force.
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FEMA (1999). HAZUS-MH Hurricane Mod
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Gustavsen, B., and Rolfseng, L. (20
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Klima, K., Lin, N., Emanuel, K., Mo
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Li, Y. and Stewart, M.G. (2011) Cyc
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National Research Council (NRC) (20
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Pistrika A. and Jonkman S. (2010).
Page 286 and 287:
Scawthorn, C., Blais, N., Seligson,
Page 288 and 289:
Unanwa, C.O., and McDonald, J.R. (2
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Wang, C.-h., Leicester, R.H., and N
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Appendix I_________________________
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Table AI.2: The expected cumulative
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Percentage Increase in Cumulative D
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Table AI.3: Comparing the net benef
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Figure AI.3 shows the various combi
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Appendix II________________________
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Figure AII.1: Fragility Curve for C
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Appendix III_______________________
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AIII.2 ResultsA principal component
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Appendix IV________________________
Page 312 and 313:
Expected completion dateEstimated s
Page 314 and 315:
This is documentation for Chapters
Page 316 and 317:
may use the publisher-supplied PDF
Page 318 and 319:
This is documentation for Chapter 6
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