PROBABILISTIC-BASED HURRICANE RISK ASSESSMENT AND ...

Chapter 1__________________________________________Introduction__________________________________________In recent years, hurricane damage costs in the United States (U.S.) have increased. It isestimated that the 2004-2005 hurricane season caused in excess of $150 billion indamages, mainly due to Hurricane Katrina (Pielke et al. 2008). This is a significantincrease from the annual average of $6 billion, recorded from 1989-1995, and an evenmore significant increase from the average recorded from 1950-1989 of $1.6 billion indamages annually (Pielke and Pielke 1997). Furthermore, it is projected that insures inthe U.S. have paid more than $110 billion in losses due to hurricane events (GAO 2007).Despite these increases in damage costs, the coastal population of the U.S. continues togrow. For example, insured coastal property values in Florida have increased by 55%from the year 1988 to 1993, from $566 billion to $872 billion (Stewart et al. 2003). In2003, approximately 153 million people reside in counties along the U.S. coastline(Crosset et al. 2004). This is an increase in population of 33 million since 1980, and it isestimated that the U.S. coastal population will increase by 12 million in 2015 (W&PE2003).The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) has stated that rising sea surfacetemperatures (SST) are a direct result of the changing global climate. Increased hurricaneactivity has been recorded in the Atlantic Ocean since 1995 (Goldenberg et al. 2001).However, whether this increased activity can be directly tied to the rising SST of theAtlantic Ocean is a matter of debate. Studies (Elsner et al. 2008, Emanuel 2005, Mannand Emanuel 2006, White House 2009) do show that there is an apparent connectionbetween the two increases. On the other hand, studies (Klotzbach 2006, Landsea et al.2006, Landsea 2007, Pielke et al. 2005) attribute the increased hurricane activity to thenatural variability of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. Whether or not climate change is1