Use of the census of population to discern trends in the Welsh ...

Use of the census of population to discern trends in the Welsh language 199so by the poverty of the population census in termsof language information’. Concerns over the lackof a sound statistical base with which to monitorchanges over time have been expressed elsewhere(Jones and Williams 2000). Consequently, HywelJones, a senior statistician from the Welsh Assembly,has been seconded to the Welsh Language Board toestablish a comprehensive database and to interrogatea suite of current data sets to tease out sociolinguistictrends and implications. Others havesuggested alternatives to the use of the census;both Williams (1989 2000) and Williams and Morris(2000, 50) demonstrate the potential advantages thatmay accrue from conducting language use surveyswhich show how the Welsh language is actuallybeing used in the home, workplace and communityin order to gauge ‘what people actually do with theWelsh which they can speak’. Currently the WelshLanguage Board is awaiting the results of surveysit has commissioned on a range of issues such aslanguage reproduction within the family, the sociolinguisticbehaviour of young people, the potentialfor an increased use of Welsh within the economyand the effect of marketing campaigns on thedecision of young parents to send their children toWelsh-medium schools.This paper has been concerned with addressingtwo principal research questions. Firstly, within thelimitations of the 2001 census of population, inmonitoring the Welsh language, we have beenconcerned with demonstrating the trends that canbe gauged from an analysis of aggregate data at theunitary authority level and with comparing suchtrends with those from other sources such as theWelsh Local Labour Force Survey and with resultsfrom previous censuses. Secondly, we have highlightedcurrent gaps in knowledge where the censusis less useful to policymakers charged with investigatingsuch trends. A number of research questionsarise from the aggregate analysis conducted to date,for example:• What effect has the changes in the nature of thequestion had on the overall findings? For example,changes in the way the question was phrased (from‘Can you?’ to ‘Do you?’) or the fact that respondentsin the 2001 census were asked if they understoodthe language? This led commentators such asBalsom to state: ‘At last, it appears as if our officialstatisticians are taking some account of the complexityof the language situation in Wales. Thisinvolves recognizing that, in a bilingual community,the apparently straightforward question “Do youspeak Welsh” cannot be fully answered with a simpleYes or No’ (2003, 33).• What effect did the Welsh tick box controversyalluded to above have on the response to the question?Were those who put their ethnic identity asWelsh also Welsh speakers or more inclined to saythey understood and spoke Welsh when theydidn’t?• If there are future censuses, what additional questionscould be asked to provide more diagnosticmeasures of the evolving nature of the Welshlanguage?• If additional questions are rejected, how couldancillary surveys be used in conjunction with thebasic census analysis to provide a more completepicture?• Does devolution necessarily imply that Walesneeds its own national statistical office? If so howmight language-related questions be imbedded inmainstream socio-economic investigations, so thatthe reality of usage in all domains, rather than thepotential contained within self-ascribed replies,informs policy decisions.One policy area which is key to the trends notedfrom our aggregate analysis is education. It is thesingle most important factor determining the totalnumbers of young people capable of speaking Welsh.Critically, since the Education Reform Act of 1988,Welsh has become a core subject in the nationalcurriculum of Wales for all children up until the ageof 16. This has two broad implications. First it offersthe opportunity to acquire a range of bilingual skillsfor all Welsh school children wherever they areon the linguistic continuum. Secondly it helps tomainstream the bilingual policies of the WAG,because now there is a tacit understanding thatthe language (in theory) belongs to all, not just to adeclining minority within the country. The challengefacing language planners is to ensure thatthose taught Welsh to age 16 continue to have theopportunities to continue speaking the languageoutside the school environment. A second issue isthe significant number of Adult Welsh learnerswho acquire skills in Welsh but who face difficultiesintegrating within Welsh-speaking networks,especially within anglicized areas. This, in turn,points to the need for a more disaggregate analysisas and when the detailed data from the census andthe data sets being collected by the WLB becomeavailable.