AUVs and ROVs Global Market Prospects - Oceanology International
AUVs and ROVs Global Market Prospects - Oceanology International
AUVs and ROVs Global Market Prospects - Oceanology International
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<strong>AUVs</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>ROVs</strong>–<strong>Global</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Prospects</strong>Paul NewmanJohn WestwoodUUV OI London13 Mar 2012UUV OI, London13 Mar 20121
www.dw‐1.comOur BusinessHistory <strong>and</strong> Office Locations• Established 1990• Aberdeen, Canterbury, London,New York & SingaporeoffshoreActivities & Service Lines• Business strategy & advisory• Commercial due‐diligence• <strong>Market</strong> research & analysis• Published market studiespowerLarge, Diversified Client Baseonshore• 750 projects, >400 clients,>70 countries• Leading global corporates• Energy majors <strong>and</strong> their suppliersLNG• Investment banks & PE firms• Government agenciesUUV downstream OI, London13 Mar 2012© Douglas-Westwood Limited 2011renewables2
UUV OI, London13 Mar 20123
UUV OI, London13 Mar 20124
From man to machine<strong>Market</strong> driversWork class <strong>ROVs</strong><strong>AUVs</strong>ConclusionsUUV OI, London13 Mar 20125
From man to machine• OffshoreUUV OI, London13 1960’s Mar 2012 1970’s 6 1980’s6
<strong>AUVs</strong>1980 Ifremer ‘Epaulard’ AUV operational1983 SPAWAR ‘AUSS’ launched1992 MIT Sea Grant AUV lab six ‘Odyssey’1994 WHOI ABE first used1996 ISE ‘Theseus’ FO cable under Arctic ice1997 WHOI ‘REMUS’ AUV first mission1997 Bluefin Robotics was founded1998 ‘Autosub 1’ first scientific mission1950s University of Washingtonbegins work on the ‘SPURV 1’ AUVUUV OI, London13 Mar 20122000 C&C Technologies & ‘HUGIN 3000’in commercial operations7
2012 technology trends• Increased intelligence <strong>and</strong> on-board decision making• Use of different unmanned vehicle types (AUV, ROV, EMDV, USV <strong>and</strong>UAV) to provide a complete remote solution for military• Synthetic aperture sonar for MCM & REA but also in the commercialsector for pipeline pp inspection• Increased integration of higher resolution side-scan sonar <strong>and</strong> subbottomprofiling sonar on small <strong>AUVs</strong>• Camera <strong>and</strong> lighting systems on commercial <strong>AUVs</strong>• Intelligence enhancing systems for autonomous tracking of a pipeline• Merging of low-power technology from gliders into powered <strong>AUVs</strong> tomassively extend range whilst still retaining course-holding characteristics• Move away from fuel cells <strong>and</strong> possibly towards energy sources thosethat utilise conventional diesel fuel• Increased connectivity with <strong>AUVs</strong> whilst underwater• Development of reliable autonomous docking, penetration-free recharging<strong>and</strong> wireless communicationUUV OI, London13 Mar 20128
From man to machine<strong>Market</strong> driversWork class <strong>ROVs</strong><strong>AUVs</strong>ConclusionsUUV OI, London13 Mar 20129
<strong>Market</strong> Three key sectors marketsOffshore O&GResearchUUV OI, London13 Mar 2012DefenceHydrography10
Offshore oil & gas market drivers• Growing offshore E&P programmes• Deeper waters, remote <strong>and</strong> harshenvironments (e.g. Arctic)• Potential ti for life-of-field f fi ld inspectionsolutions• High costs of pipeline inspection usingconventional systems• Drives for efficiency <strong>and</strong> cost reductionwith respect to vessel timeUUV OI, London13 Mar 201211
The problems of oil• <strong>Global</strong> energy dem<strong>and</strong> to double by 2030• Growing oil dem<strong>and</strong>, mainly from APac• Spare oil production capacity collapse• Russian dem<strong>and</strong> growth restricting exports• Have 8 of the top 11 oil companies peaked?• N Sea & Venezuelan production downSource: Credit Suisse <strong>Global</strong> Commodities ResearchUUV OI, London13 Mar 2012• Supplier instability reduces production• South Sudan -300,000 b/d• Libya -600,000 b/d• Syria -175,000 b/d• And Iran??12
The end of cheap oil?150S/barrel130110907050• $111 Brent av. 2011 – up 13%• Highest since 1860 s• OECD inventories lowest since 20082012 forecasts$110 to $150• Highest since 1860’s ?• High oil prices will drive increasing E&P spend• But $150 could push the US into recession!3010‐10197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013Annual Average Oil Prices (Brent)Source: historic BP, forecast Reuters Oct 2011, $15 Vitol Feb 2012UUV OI, London13 Mar 201213
Oil & Gas E&P spend forecasts growSource: <strong>Global</strong> 2012 E&P SpendingOutlook. Barclays Capital (Dec 2011)• Barclay’s $598bn E&P spend forecast in 2012, up10%• Many E&P co’s in ‘catch up mode’ on delayed projects• Big focus on offshore, particularly deepwater• North Sea decomissioning beginningUUV OI, London13 Mar 201214
Deepwater: $205 bn capex over next five yearsExpenditu ure ($ billions )80706050403020AfricaAsiaAustralasiaEastern Europe<strong>and</strong>FSULatin AmericaMiddle EastNorth AmericaWestern Europe1002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Source: “The World Deepwater <strong>Market</strong> Report 2012-2016” Douglas-Westwood• Brazil’s pre-salt spend begins• US GOM activity resuming• Drilling $72bn (35%).• Subsea processing emerging ($2.6 bn)• Floating production buildUUV OI, London13 Mar 2012NorthAmerica13%MiddleEast1%LatinAmerica34%WEurope4%Africa25%E Eur &FSU11%Asia8%Austr4%2012-16TotalCapex15
Subsea production grows$40 Africa AsiaAustralasiaEastern Europe & FSU$35 Latin AmericaMiddle EastNorth AmericaNorway$30 RoWEUKEx xpenditure $bn$25$20$15$10$5$0Source: FMC Technologies2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Subsea Hardware $135 bn$m millions6.05.04.030 3.02.0OthersWestern EuropeNorth AmericaLatin AmericaAsia-PacificAfrica# Vess sels300250200150100Intervention & P&AField DevelopmentInspection, Repair & Maintenance1.0500.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015UUV OI, London13 Mar 2012$20 bn in Subsea IRM-2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201582 Subsea Ops Vessels Needed16
Offshore ops & maint spend to see good growth$billions$80 AfricaAsia-PacificEastern Europe & FSU$70Latin AmericaMiddle East$60North AmericaNorwayUK$50 Rest of Europe$40$30$20$10$02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Source: “The World Offshore Operations & Maintenance <strong>Market</strong> Report 2010‐14” Douglas‐Westwood• >7,000 fixed & >200 floating platforms• Five-year world spend to exceed $330 billion• Plus dem<strong>and</strong> for major modificationsUUV OI, London13 Mar 201217
Emerging opportunities – decommissioningUK Decommissioning Spend Forecast ($bn)Source: Douglas-Westwood• e.g. UK; 260 platforms, 2.4 million t. steel, 5,000 wells• Total spend to exceed $42 billion• Wider impact as timing coincides with N Sea offshore windfarm buildUUV OI, London13 Mar 201218
Strong growth in offshore wind underway2015:Capex £10.6 bnTurbines 9142010:Capex £3.1 bnTurbines 370• UK aiming to source 31% of electricity fromrenewables by 2020 (currently c. 9%)• UK largest market but Germany to growstrongly• Note Chinese activityUUV OI, London13 Mar 2012• Trends: capacity, water depth &distance from shore allincreasingSource: Douglas-Westwood19
Defence market drivers• Defence industry faces budgetary cuts• Literal zone operations• Fleet reduction strategies promoting the useof multi-role platforms• Integrated MCM systems, with a singlecomm<strong>and</strong> control interface• Quieter submarine propulsion require newdetection ti methodology• Higher resolution sensors• Widespread acceptance of unmannedtechnologyUUV OI, London13 Mar 201220
Research sector drivers• Catastrophic events: the Macondo oil spill<strong>and</strong> the Japanese Tsunami bringing g newfocus <strong>and</strong> funding into marine science• Regional, national & international researchocean observation systems• Large-scale, long-term global issues such asclimate change• Local, small-scale research activities• Desire for increased density <strong>and</strong> frequencyof observations• Research needs in previously hard-to reachareas such as under-ice that can only bemet by unmanned systems.UUV OI, London13 Mar 201221
Cross-sector drivers• Demanning to reduce costs & increase safety• Reducing the impact of high vessel costs• Improving reliability of remote systems• Advances in autonomous technology• Increasing awareness & acceptance of unmanned systemsUUV OI, London13 Mar 2012SBS Bathymetry from SRDUK / Tritech22
• Focus of <strong>ROVs</strong> in oil & gasApplications• <strong>AUVs</strong> in research & militaryUUV OI, London13 Mar 2012ppySector Application AUV ROVOil <strong>and</strong> Gas MODU Drilling SupportInspection, Repair <strong>and</strong> MaintenanceInstallation <strong>and</strong> Field DevelopmentFloating Production System InspectionSubsea Well InterventionDecommissioningPipeline installation <strong>and</strong> ProtectionPipeline IRMReservoir MonitoringMarine Renewables Installation of devices <strong>and</strong> cablingInspection, Repair <strong>and</strong> MaintenanceSurvey Site surveysRoute surveys (Pipelines <strong>and</strong> Cables)Hydrographic surveysPower /Cable installation <strong>and</strong> burialTelecommunications Cable IRMNuclearNuclear IRM <strong>and</strong> DecommissioningSeabed Resources Exploration <strong>and</strong> ExtractionResearch OceanographicGeological/GeophysicalBiological/ChemicalEnvironmental MonitoringArcheologyAquaculture / Fisheries StudiesMilitary Mine Counter MeasuresAnti-Submarine WarfareRapid Environmental AssessmentOperational OceanographySubmarine Rescue <strong>and</strong> SalvagePersistent SurveillanceOver-WatchSecurity / Safety Hull inspectionsPort <strong>and</strong> Harbour inspectionsRiver <strong>and</strong> coastal patrolsSearch & Rescue23
From man to machine<strong>Market</strong> driversWork class <strong>ROVs</strong><strong>AUVs</strong>ConclusionsUUV OI, London13 Mar 201224
Oceaneering195214241233Subsea 7 (inc. i-Tech)SonsubFugro60606055645445531049810086Major ROVoperatorsC-Innovation2925242320112010Helix (Canyon)4039393720092008DOF SubseaTechnipTricoHallin443325222925212125252121151388• A world fleetof 747 unitsoperated by21 majorcompaniesOthers5996101960 50 100 150 200 250 300UUV OI, London13 Mar 201225
Strong growth forecast for ROV operationsDays (000s)180160140120100806040200RM: Repair & MaintenanceDS: Subsea DV WellsDS: E&A WellsCS: Trunkline InstallationCS: FPSO Mooring & RisersCS: Subsea ProcessingCS: TMFJCS: Umbilicals & FlowlinesCS: Subsea TreesROV Expenditure2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015$1,800$1,600$1,400$1,200$1,000$800$600$400$200$0llions)Exp penditure ($mi• ROV ops market to grow from $976 (2011) to $1,546 million• Drilling to remain biggest sector• Implies a need for an extra 221 units 2011-15UUV OI, London13 Mar 2012Source: The World ROV <strong>Market</strong> Forecast 2011-2015. Douglas-Westwood26
From man to machine<strong>Market</strong> driversWork class <strong>ROVs</strong><strong>AUVs</strong>ConclusionsUUV OI, London13 Mar 201227
<strong>AUVs</strong> – growth of over 60% forecastNum mber of Active <strong>AUVs</strong>1,000900800700600500400300AfricaAsiaAustralasiaEastern Europe & FSULatin AmericaMiddle EastNorth AmericaNorwayRoWEUK20010002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016• Numbers to triple in a decade• Some 930 active units by in 2016• USA to remain largest AUV sector playerUUV OI, London13 Mar 2012Source: The World AUV <strong>Market</strong> Forecast 2012-2016. Douglas-Westwood28
Military & research <strong>AUVs</strong> to total 89%Num mber of Active <strong>AUVs</strong>1,000900800700600500400300CommercialMilitaryResearch20010002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016• Strong linkages between military <strong>and</strong> research sectors• Commercial application to grow but unit numbers smallUUV OI, London13 Mar 2012Source: The World AUV <strong>Market</strong> Forecast 2012-2016. Douglas-Westwood29
From man to machine<strong>Market</strong> driversWork class <strong>ROVs</strong><strong>AUVs</strong>ConclusionsUUV OI, London13 Mar 201230
AUV conclusions• A strong & growing market for AUV deliveries• Military & research sectors to hold 89% of market (CAGR 12% & 8%)• Commercial sector 11% market, but CAGR of 20%• Emerging markets: Renewables, Site Survey, Life of Field, Rig Moves<strong>and</strong> Hydrography• Long-term subsea operations such as LOF dem<strong>and</strong> new technology• Manufacturers: Kongsberg likely to dominate for some years.• Companies with a large existing profile include Bluefin Robotics <strong>and</strong> ISE.Interesting developments in Cybernetix, Go Science & Subsea 7UUV OI, London13 Mar 201231
ROV conclusions• Strong growth in dem<strong>and</strong> for work-class ROV operations• <strong>Market</strong> expected to grow from $885 million to $1,546 in 2015• ROV days for drilling support to grow at near 14% CAGR• Construction support days growth of 6 % CAGR.• IRM activities to rise at 7%• A further 221 units needed d by 2011-20152015UUV OI, London13 Mar 201232
Thank youjohn@dw-1.comUUV OI, London13 Mar 201233
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