UAV Roadmap - Unmanned Aircraft & Drones

UAV Roadmap 2000 – Section 4.0TechnologiesACL 2 and 3 in autonomy. The Navy goal is to demonstrate ACL 7 by 2008, while theAir Force intends to demonstrate ACL 6 by 2007 and ACL 8 by 2013. In parallel withdeveloping the technology for AO, the Services must also evolve their doctrines foremploying it. Scalable levels of AO will probably be necessary to accommodate varyingROEs for contingencies from peacekeeping to force-on-force.FIGURE 4.4-2: AUTONOMOUS CONTROL LEVEL TREND.Moore’s Law states the number of transistors on a microprocessor will doubleapproximately every 12-18 months, enabling a corresponding increase in computingpower. This “law” is based on an observation made by Gordon Moore, ChairmanEmeritus of Intel Corporation, in 1965 and has been remarkably accurate for the past 35years. It has been the basis for many performance forecasts and is used here to projectthe trend in microprocessor speeds for the next 25 years. These speeds directly determinewhether CINCs receive their information in real time (RT), near real time (NRT), or thenext day (ND).Figure 4.4-3 illustrates this trend in microprocessor speed and extrapolates a trendbased on speeds doubling every 18 months. From it, GHz processors should becomecommercially available within the year (2001) and THz (1000 GHz) processors by 2013.35